Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Thiem vs. Coric

Rafael Nadal will continue his Madrid campaign on Friday when he goes up against recent Monte-Carlo foe David Goffin. The quarterfinal schedule also includes Rio champion Dominic Thiem and lucky loser Borna Coric.

(9) David Goffin vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Goffin will be going head-to-head for only the second time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they battle for a place in the Mutua Madrid Open semifinals on Friday. They just faced each other last month in Monte-Carlo, where Nadal cruised through a semifinal affair 6-3, 6-1 en route to his 10th title in the principality of Monaco. The fifth-ranked Spaniard also bagged trophy No. 10 in Barcelona, where he did not drop a single set and was pushed to only one tiebreaker. There has been no slowing down for Nadal in Madrid, where he scraped past Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 before crushing Nick Kyrgios 6-3, 6-1 on Thursday.

A red-hot Goffin clearly has designs of making a second straight appearance at the World Tour Finals (last year as an alternate). The 10th-ranked Belgian is 27-9 in 2017 with runner-up performances in Sofia and Rotterdam to go along with his semifinal finish in Monte-Carlo. Goffin has not surrendered a set so far this week, taking out Karen Khachanov, Florian Mayer, and Milos Raonic in routine fashion. But as their recent Monte-Carlo tilt suggests, the ninth seed does not have the necessary offensive tools to seriously trouble Nadal on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(LL) Borna Coric vs. (8) Dominic Thiem

Coric trailed Enrique Lopez-Perez 6-2, 5-3 in the first round qualifying and lost to Mikhail Kukushkin the next day. But the 59th-ranked Croat got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when Richard Gasquet withdrew due to a back injury, and the rest is history. Coric has made the most of his opportunity with straight-set victories over Mischa Zverev, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, and world No. 1 Andy Murray. The 20-year-old is now 13-11 at the ATP level this season with a title last month on the red clay of Marrakech.

Up next for Coric on Friday is a second career meeting with Thiem, who lost their only previous encounter 6-1, 7-5 at the recent Miami Masters. As usual, a switch to clay has done the ninth-ranked Austrian plenty of good. He is 12-2 on the slow stuff (24-10 overall in 2017) with a title in Rio de Janeiro and a final showing in Barcelona (lost to eventual champion Rafael Nadal). Thiem opened in Madrid with a routine defeat of lucky loser Jared Donaldson before saving five match points to overcome Grigor Dimitrov 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) on Thursday. This matchup was a fair fight in Miami, but that may not be the case on the clay courts of Madrid. Whereas Murray was content to bloop groundstrokes back and forth with Coric, Thiem–despite camping out many meters behind the baseline–has never been afraid to be the aggressor.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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32 Comments on Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Thiem vs. Coric

  1. Damn you are quick with you previews man!!

    Anyway, Rafa in 2 sets with total domination in one set.

    Will Djokovic be able to beat Nishi?

  2. Rafa is playing much better now than he was the last time he played Goffin at MC. I expect Rafa to get the win in 2 sets.

    Coric has had a nice run and made the most of his lucky loser opportunity, but this is where the road ends for him. After watching Thiem gut out a tough, hard fought victory against Dimi saving five match points along the way, he will get the win in 2 sets.

  3. Ermm….I think the result will depend much on how everything’s will turned out for Rafa today…the weather[windy or not],the serve[clicking or not]..if things not go well,how fast Rafa will manage his nervousness..

    Goffin certainly will give a stern test…there’s going to be a lot of DTL shots from Goffin,but once again the mental strength of Rafa will make all the difference in the world…So,maybe Rafa in 2..at the most 3..

  4. From what I’ve seen the conditions have been much slower and heavier than expected for Madrid,which doesn’t suit many people’s games.

    I think Goffin will provide a tough match ,he’s in great form.Nadal in three.

    Thiem will be able to hit through Coric , 64 64.

  5. If Rafa gets off to a quick start he will win in 2

    If not he could have a tough fight on his hands because Goffin is very much a front runner player: if he falls behind he tends to lose confidence and become mentally more fragile.

    I’m hoping Rafa will have learnt from the Barcelona meeting and will recalibrate his game plan accordingly.

  6. In my opinion, Goffin’s not beating Rafa on clay. Not this season, anyway. I would be very surprised if Goffin beat him today… I’m also dying to see Rafa/Novak! 🙂 I honestly cannot imagine Rafa getting any better of an opportunity to finally end his losing streak to Novak… Rafa is playing really well. It’s on clay, even if it’s Madrid conditions. Rafa’s filled with confidence. Novak is slumping. The stars are lined up for Rafa to turn the tables again. He MUST capitalize here! And I, personally, think he will…

  7. Backhand is ON FIRE. Forehand is good but can definitely improve. He’d need to improve the forehand a little bit if he is to keep this an easy match.

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