Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 50th time in their careers when they collide once again in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday.
Djokovic owns a slight 26-23 lead in the head-to-head series, but Nadal is 14-7 at the Serb’s expense on clay. Although Nadal won their first nine encounters on the red stuff, Djokovic has taken seven of their last 12 such meetings–including their most recent showdown at last year’s Rome Masters via a 7-5, 7-6(4) decision. One of their most memorable contests came at this same Madrid event in 2009, when Nadal survived a semifinal affair 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(9) after a ridiculous four hours and three minutes. They also faced each other at the Caja Magica in 2011, when Djokovic scored a 7-5, 6-4 victory to lift the trophy.
Djokovic’s recent clay-court success against Nadal set him up nicely to capture his first French Open title and that is exactly what he did last spring. This time around, however, the Spaniard is a clear favorite to triumph at Roland Garros for the 10th time in his career. Nadal recently earned 10th titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona and he is 13-0 on clay this year following Madrid defeats of Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, and David Goffin.
At this point, simply advancing to the semifinals has to be considered a significant success for Djokovic. The world No. 2 had been a mere 7-4 in his last four tournaments prior to Madrid and dealt with an elbow injury that sidelined him from the Miami Masters. Needing any help he could get, Djokovic watched Nicolas Almagro crumble after leading 3-0 in their third set on Wednesday and–after beating Feliciano Lopez in round three–got a quarterfinal walkover from Kei Nishikori.
This is likely where Djokovic’s good fortune comes to an end. He has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 19 in the world since toppling Andy Murray at the season-opening event in Doha. Djokovic has already lost four times in 2017 to opponents ranked below him and none of those four presented anything close to the difficulty that is facing Nadal on a clay court in Spain.
Unless Djokovic plays his best match of the year to date–and there is no sign of him doing so–Nadal should have an obvious edge in the baseline rallies.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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