Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 50th time in their careers when they collide once again in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday.
Djokovic owns a slight 26-23 lead in the head-to-head series, but Nadal is 14-7 at the Serb’s expense on clay. Although Nadal won their first nine encounters on the red stuff, Djokovic has taken seven of their last 12 such meetings–including their most recent showdown at last year’s Rome Masters via a 7-5, 7-6(4) decision. One of their most memorable contests came at this same Madrid event in 2009, when Nadal survived a semifinal affair 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(9) after a ridiculous four hours and three minutes. They also faced each other at the Caja Magica in 2011, when Djokovic scored a 7-5, 6-4 victory to lift the trophy.
Djokovic’s recent clay-court success against Nadal set him up nicely to capture his first French Open title and that is exactly what he did last spring. This time around, however, the Spaniard is a clear favorite to triumph at Roland Garros for the 10th time in his career. Nadal recently earned 10th titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona and he is 13-0 on clay this year following Madrid defeats of Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, and David Goffin.
At this point, simply advancing to the semifinals has to be considered a significant success for Djokovic. The world No. 2 had been a mere 7-4 in his last four tournaments prior to Madrid and dealt with an elbow injury that sidelined him from the Miami Masters. Needing any help he could get, Djokovic watched Nicolas Almagro crumble after leading 3-0 in their third set on Wednesday and–after beating Feliciano Lopez in round three–got a quarterfinal walkover from Kei Nishikori.
This is likely where Djokovic’s good fortune comes to an end. He has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 19 in the world since toppling Andy Murray at the season-opening event in Doha. Djokovic has already lost four times in 2017 to opponents ranked below him and none of those four presented anything close to the difficulty that is facing Nadal on a clay court in Spain.
Unless Djokovic plays his best match of the year to date–and there is no sign of him doing so–Nadal should have an obvious edge in the baseline rallies.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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Hello up there, Ali!♡
I was praying for Rafa today! Sounds so absurd!. He is not even a family member but honestly he feels like one! I did not know how long the match would go on so I gave it a safe 3 hours before looking at the ATP site and was thrilled to see that Rafa had won. One thing had given me some hope and that was that Rafa had said he had done his homework. Obviously he had a game plan and he stuck to it. I then read all the posts of the others in this forum and I am so happy, I could dance the whole day!!!
Rafa being Rafa, will, I am sure, not feel as if the tournament is over. He will prepare well for tomorrow’s match. Vamos Rafa!!!
I watched the last match between Rafa and Nole in the Doha 2016 final today and I thought Rafa’s tactics were all wrong by playing ping pong with Novak. You can’t out ping pong Andy and Djoker. I wished he would play more aggressively today and just go for his shots, he did that and it worked.
If Rafa manages to sweep the entire clay season including Rome and RG, it will be very hard to bet against him ending season #1… Federer will need to have arguably his greatest season ever to end #1!
Rafa will have to do well in the grass and hardcourt seasons to have a chance. As indoor is not his strong point, he will have to win at least one of Wimbly and USO. Unless you amass at least 10000 points, you have very little chance of ending the year at #1. The year end # 1s had 13630, 12920, 13030, 11360, 16585, 12410 in 2011, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 respectively. The only one below 12000 was in 2014 when the 4 slams were won by four different players. Unless the rest of the season is won by umpteen players, Rafa cannot be #1 by simply sweeping the clay season. Fed already swept the first three big titles and he is pretty good on grass, outdoor hardcourt and indoor. Right now, it is advantage Fed.
You’re right, Ramada, that Fed is in a good position because he did so well in the beginning of season, and still has all his traditionally best tournaments ahead of him. I think one factor that could be important for Fed is that he do well at Roland Garros. I think it would help him if he could at least make the semis…
If Fed wins Wimbledon or USO he’ll be YE #1 in all likelihood imo. Frankly I’ll be very, very happy if Rafa wins RG and has a respectable rest of the year. Too much injury risk if you win enough to be #1 these days.
Fed couldn’t play this well and last a whole season; I think he’s more realistic than many of us here. Fed would pick and choose what to play; he won’t make the SF of RG when he didn’t even play a single warm up event. He may reach the QF at best and be beaten by one of the other top guys.
He’ll concentrate his efforts on grass. He’s playing three tournaments on grass including Wimbledon, so it’s a hectic schedule for him. I feel he may skip Canada, plays Cincy and USO after that (Canada is only three weeks away from end of Wimbledon this year so I feel Fed would not play there). He’ll play at Shanghai and then Basel, skips Paris to be ready for WTF; that’s my take about Fed’s schedule. Let’s see if I’m right.
I look forward to replying to this post less than four weeks from now.
I’d be very surprised to see who will knock Fed out before semis.
#RafasBiggestChallengeLeft
I am sure Thiem , Goffin, etc won’t be in Fed’s quarter. So who will stop him before the semis?
Fed had 10550 points when he’s no.1 in 2009. I doubt Fed is winning three slams this year. If Rafa has a clean sweep on clay and does well at USO series, he’s prime to be YE no.1. Of course with his serve doing so well now, he may advance deeper into the Wimbledon draw if he doesn’t have to face any big server and big hitter, or a crazy guy like Dustin Brown.
You can be sure big hitters won’t be in Fed’s quarter. They will all be in Rafa’s quarter if he looks like he is returning to his pre 2012 grass form.
I have more hopes for him for USO unless it rains and they close the roof in the semis or finals where he is likely to meet other members of big 4.
Rafa’s played great, Novak not so much. I’m sure Rafa is delighted with this win, but what Rafa wants is the Madrid title and then RG! 🙂 I do expect him to play Rome though.
I think Rafa proved today that there is no such thiing as Nole being in Rafa’s head…the only thing that can hamper Rafa is his own body and his own game. If he feels he does not play well he is less confident and he becomes an easy target missing shots that he would otherwise make in his sleep…this time around Rafa knew he was playing better than Novak and with two titles on clay Rafa was confident enough to beat his nemesis…
That break point for Nole in the deciding game Rafa of 2015-2016 would have easily lost and would have brought Nole back into the match! This Rafa however was focused and aggressive and did not hesitate to attack Nole’s FHs with his backhand. I am thrilled to see Rafa the warrior who believes in himself and who hits his shots with intelligence and precision! This Rafa is unbeatable!
When Rafa lost in Miami final I said Rafa would destroy them all on clay! And he is proving me right..
Keep up the good work for this magnificent clay season, Rafa! You are the King, one and only!
Vamos!
Yeah Nats, I’m with you there. I did say after Miami that Rafa would do well on clay and he proves us right!
Well I don’t know whether Djoko is/was in his head but certainly the consecutive losses bothered him, just like his losses to Foggy. I can sense that when playing Foggy and Djoko, Rafa is extra nervous, probably knowing how well they can play and how difficult to put them away; Goffin may be another one.
The titles he won certainly have given him belief and now he has confidence in his own game, and with good execution of it, hes now getting very dominant again on clay.
After all the ‘suffering’ we have watching him in the past two years, what a joy it is now seeing him winning and winning and beating tough opponents along the way, and conquering his own demons!
Exactly lucky! Great take!
I agree Rafa gets more nervous when playing those players who beat him consecutively but when he knows he is playing well he believes he can beat them and then he can execute well on key points..,in the past few years due to his nervousness and disbelief on way too many occasions he would end up losing the matches he had in his pocket…
So great indeed seeing all the varieties in Rafa’s game! As he said, he really did his homework ?
TC showing the 2nd set again and though Novak is not moving as well and sure of himself as Rafa, I like the improvement I see in Nole.
Really was hoping to see Nole v Kei. And I don’t remember seeing Kei in the Rome bracket, hm
Kei is in the Rome’s draw again in Nole’s quarter…
I also saw improvement in Nole’s game and thought he played decent second set! Some of the winners he hit were really something and resembled Nole of old. The Serbian press speculates Nole will hire Andre Agassi…
Oh okay lol, I just picked my Rome bracket and completely overlooked Kei.
About Novak I’m not as negative about him as many Nole fans and an Agassi hiring sounds great! Novak will get it together again, he’s too young and good no to.
Nishi and Kyrgios are both in Nole’s quarter. So chances are high of at least one walk over/retirement benefit for somebody in that quarter.
Lol, so true.
I think the old Nole is not too far away. We saw quite a bit of him in the 2nd set. Becker said Nole needs the challenge of winning against players like Fed or Rafa to motivate him and the reason for his decline could be boredom. Now that Rafa is in form, we could see Nole coming back by RG at the latest. Hope that at least in that draw they put these two guys on opposite sides.
Starting from 2006 when Djokovic was 19, I just checked the RG draws. Except when they were # 1 and 2 when it is not poosible to put them in the same half, Rafa and Nole have been in the same half in every RG draw except in 2009 which was the year the two destroyed themselves at Madrid just before RG.
2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. In 2011 and 2012, they were 1 and 2 in some order.
So if the same rigging pattern continues, we will see these guys in the same half though not in the same quarter if Rafa is #4.
sorry excludec 2014 also when they were 1 and 2.
Not a great match, but it picked up at the end. Nole was truly awful in the first set and Rafa was incredible. That was a beat down of Nole that I haven’t seen for a long time. Novak picked it up in the 2nd, and I thought he would hold after finally breaking Nadal’s serve (when was the last time Rafa lost his serve? It’s so much better than it was 2 months ago.) But Rafa shut the door every time Djokovic had a chance. You could see how nervous Nadal was, and how much the win meant to him. I’m still not sure what’s ailing Novak, but the pop on his shots isn’t there and is movement is nothing like it was. Maybe Boris was right that he simply hasn’t been training hard enough.
A great run through a very tough draw to get to the final for Rafa. Well done and very well deserved. I’m hoping to see a final against Cuevas, personally.
Rafa lost his serve in R3.
I don’t know if I should pick Kei to do much in Rome. He pulled out of the quarterfinal in Madrid and now he is in Rome. He needs to get his wrist sorted out.
I didn’t remember who I picked to meet zrsfa in the final in Madrid. So I checked and I picked Thiem! At least I didn’t pick Murray. I am not picking Murray to get to the final in Rome either. Not until he shows me something.
Maybe one match win Kei, maybe. I think he can take F-lo.
I think Andy can beat Fabio. Mrs. Fabs might be having a bambino any day!
Fabio could beat Andy though. Murray got a rough rough draw.
I think Andy will beat Fabio.
I think Andy can get past Fog. I went back d d forth with Kei and F-Lo. I may go back and reconsider a few picks.
Did anyone see that Kyrgios is in Novak’s section of the draw?
Not expecting much from Curious. He and Sock gave a walkover in their doubles semi. I don’t know why, but got a feeling that Curious had a problem.
There was done talk on the tennis channel during Rafa’s match with Kyrgios, that he might have a hip issue.
Maybe he’s got some niggling injury that is bothering him.
ATP site says Curious had a left hip issue.
Sock and Kyrgios as a team strikes me as a dumb and dumber, weekend at Bernie’s comedy act.
Nny….Sorry,a little bit late read your message about The Bracket…rc also already gave a link for the Bracket on the other page but that’s okay…here’s another one okay?
http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/bracket/edit
Btw Nny…Congrats to u for a 2nd place in the Bracket!!YAY!!…It’s all because of Thiem!!hehe..we’re both the only one who picked Thiem go deep to the final!!hahaha…
MA,
No problem! I had to go back to see who I picked to meet Rafa in the final in Madrid. I had forgotten. I picked Thiem! Yay!
We both got it right! I saw the link from rc and made my picks for Rome. But I have gone back to make one or two changes. I am not sure what to do with Kei. I decided to change my pick with Kyrgios beating Novak after hearing about a hip issue with him. I struggled with hiw far Novak and Murray will go. Rafa could meet Thiem in the quarterfinals.
I may go back again to review my picks before time is up.
Yeah Nny….I have a hard time with multiple inconsistent players myself like ARV,Pouille,Kei….and have a very hard time to pick between Nick and RBA,Jack sock/Schwartzman,F.Mayer/Kohl…and i also picked Fog against Andy[and feel very guilty after that] but,seen his perfomance against Coric and Andy himself was very concerned with his form,i gamble in Fog..oh well..it’s not as if we will get a million dollar from it!hehe….Hey Nny….good luck to u okay?
MA,
You are having trouble with the exact same players that I am!
As you said, we are not going to win any money on this! It’s just for fun’
?♥️
Yeah Nny!!…Just for fun…Btw..you’re having trouble with WTA too?Urgh!!…I wanna pick Simona a winner but a little bit concern if she’s a little fatigue after the heavy gruelling weeks in Madrid…Urgh!..so many choices to pick!!I can’t wait for this to end!!haha…
MA,
I haven’t done the WTA yet. I think it’s impossible because no one is stepping up. Now Kerber is injured, Mugu is struggling, so is Aga. The top seeds all got knocked out and then there was Simona. I am happy for her. But I don’t know that she can do it again.
I find the women just too difficult these days. It’s almost impossible to figure out who will get through.
Hehe…that’s alright Nny!Just concentrate on ATP okay?God knows Rafa alone can make us all older another day just thinking about him!hahaha…
Oh!Nny!…You’re going to love this too….hope you’re still not see it yet….
https://www.instagram.com/p/BT9axzGhg1I/
Nny….You’re already read this?
http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Rafael_Nadal/43343/rafael-nadal-today-i-knew-that-circumstances-were-completely-different-than-the-past-two-years-/
MA,
I did not read that! Thanks! I love reading Rafa’s thoughts about his matches.
Lucky will love that Rafa said he has to use his DTL forehand more. I think she said that during the match!
I also love how Rafa admitted that he got nervous in the second set! I love his honesty!
I knew that Rafa would not like all the talk of him
I posted before I finished. I was saying that Rafa would not like the talk of him being the favorite. He’s so right about it not meaning anything now. Until RG arrives it’s all talk. Rafa has his head on straight
Yeah Nny!Lucky must be the happiest women alive today knowing Rafa listen to her!!Who would have thunk!!hahaha!!
God Nny….I’m sooo proud to be Rafa fans,knowing how humble and very down to earth a young man he is!…and oh!we were right all this time Nny,that he’s always nervous..all the time…but,the good things is he’s much much better in handling that compared to the 15/16….oh Thank God for that!!
Oh My God Nny!..You’re going to love that article!…Rafa’s words was awesome!!Very sensible!
I recall admiring the way the 16 year old Rafa fielded questions when I first saw him being interviewed after he had beaten Carlos Costa the reigning RG champion. He has continued with the same pragmatic approach ever since.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oioELub3CcY
I also like the synergy that Moya was mentoring Rafa and now all these years later is his coach.
Albert Coasta, not Carlos Coasta.
Albert Costa I mean.
Thank u for the link ed!..I’m enjoy it very much!
When i saw the match replay again today..among other amazing things regarding Rafa’s game yesterday was that,i noticed how quick he was around the court…he won multiple fantastic point due to his quickness..on some point,i’m speechless to see the vintage winners from Rafa!
I read many pundits stated that Rafa a step slower than 2,3 years ago…but,saw him yesterday makes me think…”guys,what a step slower”?…It seems to me,it’s more to do with confidence and self belief than anything else…
Yep, lack of confidence and self belief leads to hesitation and so a split second late to hit his shots. I doubt Rafa has slowed down, at least not significantly, from his 2013. Of course a Rafa during his heydays was crazily fast, just watch him during 2005 to 2008. He’s easily the quickest around the court during those times; while Monfils was the best sprinter around, Rafa was the best all distance runner – short, medium, long distance, with speed and stamina.
Agree 100% Lucky.
Hawk’s barometer for Rafa’s stress/anxiety level is if he sweats profusely even when the air temperature is cold.
On the other hand I judge his confidence level by often he treats his opponents to those prolonged gimlet eye stares. The more frequent the more confident he is. it’s quite hard to spot watching on TV but when you are court-side it’s an awesome sight.
2nd para should read ‘by HOW often……..
He also hits short a lot when he’s the only player sweating crazily.
He was nervous serving out the win today. Sooo many short balls. Commies never notice.
I was particularly aware of it yesterday and it made me realise for how long it’s been missing.