Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Thiem vs. Coric

Rafael Nadal will continue his Madrid campaign on Friday when he goes up against recent Monte-Carlo foe David Goffin. The quarterfinal schedule also includes Rio champion Dominic Thiem and lucky loser Borna Coric.

(9) David Goffin vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Goffin will be going head-to-head for only the second time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they battle for a place in the Mutua Madrid Open semifinals on Friday. They just faced each other last month in Monte-Carlo, where Nadal cruised through a semifinal affair 6-3, 6-1 en route to his 10th title in the principality of Monaco. The fifth-ranked Spaniard also bagged trophy No. 10 in Barcelona, where he did not drop a single set and was pushed to only one tiebreaker. There has been no slowing down for Nadal in Madrid, where he scraped past Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 before crushing Nick Kyrgios 6-3, 6-1 on Thursday.

A red-hot Goffin clearly has designs of making a second straight appearance at the World Tour Finals (last year as an alternate). The 10th-ranked Belgian is 27-9 in 2017 with runner-up performances in Sofia and Rotterdam to go along with his semifinal finish in Monte-Carlo. Goffin has not surrendered a set so far this week, taking out Karen Khachanov, Florian Mayer, and Milos Raonic in routine fashion. But as their recent Monte-Carlo tilt suggests, the ninth seed does not have the necessary offensive tools to seriously trouble Nadal on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(LL) Borna Coric vs. (8) Dominic Thiem

Coric trailed Enrique Lopez-Perez 6-2, 5-3 in the first round qualifying and lost to Mikhail Kukushkin the next day. But the 59th-ranked Croat got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when Richard Gasquet withdrew due to a back injury, and the rest is history. Coric has made the most of his opportunity with straight-set victories over Mischa Zverev, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, and world No. 1 Andy Murray. The 20-year-old is now 13-11 at the ATP level this season with a title last month on the red clay of Marrakech.

Up next for Coric on Friday is a second career meeting with Thiem, who lost their only previous encounter 6-1, 7-5 at the recent Miami Masters. As usual, a switch to clay has done the ninth-ranked Austrian plenty of good. He is 12-2 on the slow stuff (24-10 overall in 2017) with a title in Rio de Janeiro and a final showing in Barcelona (lost to eventual champion Rafael Nadal). Thiem opened in Madrid with a routine defeat of lucky loser Jared Donaldson before saving five match points to overcome Grigor Dimitrov 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) on Thursday. This matchup was a fair fight in Miami, but that may not be the case on the clay courts of Madrid. Whereas Murray was content to bloop groundstrokes back and forth with Coric, Thiem–despite camping out many meters behind the baseline–has never been afraid to be the aggressor.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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19 Comments on Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Thiem vs. Coric

  1. Crazy game! With some crazy points from both men! Thank goodness Rafa breaks serve after so many deuces!

    Come on Rafa, please win it here!

  2. I expected Rafa to win with less fuss, but credit to Goffin, he’s a great player. I saw them play each other in the Abu Dhabi final, and Goffin can hold his own against anyone.

    Vamos Rafa!

    • I am glad that Rafa is out there playing because it brought out the best in him! This match was good preparation for Novak.

      Rafa will go into tomorrow’s match playing great tennis and feeling confident after beating Kyrgios and Goffin!

      I don’t want to hear a word about an easy draw! Rafa had challenges and has met the test so far.

      Now Rafa – go out there tomorrow and take down Novak!

  3. Yes Vamos Rafa! Well done.

    A high quality match, but Rafa has to step it up esp where breaking opponent’s serves is concerned. Perhaps this is a good preparation for Rafa to face Djoko next. Rafa can tough it out now so I think he’ll find a way to beat Djoko tomorrow.

    Rafa has defended his SF points, and he’s now no.1 in the race! Well done Rafa! Next, beat Djoko in the SF.

  4. Rafa fought past David!!! ✌ ✌ ✌ Vaaamooos!!!

    Rafa’s win means that he’ll rise from No.2 to No.1 in the next week’s Race. He’ll be 50 points ahead of Fed. ?

    • To add to my post AT 4:25 PM:

      Rafa would be 50 points ahead of Fed in the Race if he did not win more matches in Madrid.

      • The ATP website:
        “By reaching the Madrid semi-finals, the Spaniard also takes the top spot from Roger Federer in the Emirates ATP Race to London, which tallies the race points accumulated starting Jan. 1 of this year. The 360 points Nadal earns for a semi-final showing puts him slightly ahead of Federer (4,095 vs. 4,045). He’ll earn an additional 240 points if he makes the Madrid final and 640 points for winning the title. Nadal can further extend his lead with more wins next week at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, which Federer is not playing.”

  5. Yup. Rafa stands tall at 4095 points in the race now πŸ™‚ I did predict that he will be no.1 in the race before RG begins! I had total faith in him.

    Tomorrow is another test though. A test of how well he can vanquish the mental demons. Tennis wise he is easily there. Just got to produce it tomorrow against his nemesis.

  6. This was a great match in many respects and (I think) Rafa’s most impressive win on clay this season. Goffin played very well, great at times, and (most important) did not back down even when he was behind. He pushed Nadal the whole way. That game at 2-4 in the 2nd set was the best game I have seen this season. What incredible shots from both players.

    So: full props to Nadal for a great win. Yes, he missed several BP opportunities, but Goffin had a lot to do with that. He gave Rafa nothing this match. Imo, the difference in the match was serving and, especially, ROS. Goffin did not hit enough 1st serves in, and really couldn’t do much with Nadal’s 2nd serve. From the baseline he held his own, and in the first set may even have been a bit better. Nadal was a beast as usual when facing BPs and generally played the big points better, including in the TB.

    • Er.., Rafa having more BPs than Goffin in the first set, I doubt Goffin was playing better than Rafa, more like he’s good at saving them. Not forgetting Goffin was the aggressor in the match (at least in the first set), whilst Rafa was more the counter puncher than the aggressor, and yet Rafa was able to create those BPs. It’s in the second set that Rafa was more aggressive and took the lead.

  7. Rafa’s passing shots in that particular game were incredible. Rafa had six BPs in set one alone and it’s not that Goffin saved all of them by his good serving or good hitting; some were due to Rafa’s errors. Had Rafa taken one of those, a TB could be avoided.

    Rafa raised his level when he needed to – in the TB and in that 7th game of second set. I like the varieties he displayed during that match, and came up with solutions as and when needed.

    I don’t think we can dispute the fact that Rafa is playing very well at the moment and he’s playing some interesting tennis during this clay season – shorter points, great net play and volleying, good enough serves and returns; good BH and FH.

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