Madrid SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Cuevas

It will be a battle of one-handed backhands when Dominic Thiem and Pablo Cuevas clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday. Their only previous encounter was an absolute clay-court battle, won by Cuevas 7-6(7), 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-5 in round two of the 2015 French Open.

Two years later, Thiem has established himself as a top 10 player and certainly one of the very best on the red stuff. A semifinalist at Roland Garros last season, Thiem boasts a 13-2 record on the surface in 2017. That mark includes a title in Rio de Janeiro, a runner-up performance in Barcelona (lost to Nadal), and wins this week over Jared Donaldson, Grigor Dimitrov, and Borna Coric. The ninth-ranked Austrian’s victories over the two lucky losers were nothing more than routine, but he needed to save five match points before outlasting Dimitrov 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) on Thursday.

Without the benefit of a first-round bye, Cuevas has already contested four matches in Madrid and all four went to three sets. The 27th-ranked Uruguayan scraped past Thomaz Bellucci, Nicolas Mahut, Benoit Paire, and Alexander Zverev to earn a spot in his first-ever Masters 1000 semifinal. Thus Cuevas has gotten over a considerable hump, as he also reached recent Masters 1000 quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo only to squander match points on both occasions (against Pablo Carreno Busta and then versus Lucas Pouille).

During his 3-6, 6-0, 6-4 defeat of Zverev on Friday, Cuevas hit an incredible no-look winner to save a game point at 1-0 in the second set and he eventually broke for a 2-0 advantage. From then on, he never relinquished the momentum.

“I don’t practice it very often,” Cuevas commented. “It was just a last-minute thing that I hit. I thought it would work…. Normally I never try that shot. Today I tried that shot. I thought I hit the ball pretty well. When I looked that I placed it in a good place in the court, I was happy.”

He may require more magic against Thiem, who is arguably looking like the second-best clay-court player in the world right now behind Nadal. With Cuevas perhaps running on fumes following a trio of three-setters, Thiem should have the edge in this one.

Pick: Thiem in 2

[polldaddy poll=9746032]

12 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Cuevas

  1. Well… Im not sure what Cuevas we will see. That one from Wawrinka match from Monte Carlo or that one from Paire match from Miami or Kchachanov fron Barcelona. He will be a little tight but i think if he gonna just have fun like today he will win.

    Ive got Cuevas in 3. I seriously dont think Thiem play that good in Madrid to close this in two.

    • Yeah…I noticed that…Cuevas v Thiem repeat. Have to see which one wins this and pick the other
      one in Rone – maybe (depending)

    • I have no way to watch WTA, alison. But yeah happy she beat Coco and Madrid. We’ll see what happens in Rome. Maybe Simona will pull out. Gosh I don’t know how WTA goes!

  2. Thiem and Cuevas are pretty even so far. Thiem has a break tho.

    I can see these two going three sets at this rate.

  3. Nice win. Thiem served well and was just enough better than Pablo.

    Congrats to Dominic on his first masters final. Good luck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.