Madrid QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Zverev vs. Cuevas

Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori are back from respective injuries and have played their way into an intriguing quarterfinal contest that is set for Friday in Madrid. Alexander Zverev and Pablo Cuevas are also aiming for a place in the last four.

(6) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic and Nishikori will be facing each other for the 14th time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 11-2 in favor of Djokovic, who has won 10 in a row at Nishikori’s expense since losing a stunner in the 2014 U.S. Open semis. Although the Serb is perfect 4-0 in this matchup on clay, a pair of 2016 semifinal showdowns did not disappoint; Djokovic prevailed 6-3, 7-6(4) in Madrid and 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) one week later in Rome.

This, of course, is not the same Djokovic who came within one win in 2016’s final match of finishing the year No. 1 in the world. The 12-time major champion is 16-4 this season (9-4 in his last five tournaments including this one) and down at 23rd in the race to London. After splitting from his entire team last week, Djokovic has wins in Madrid over Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez. Nishikori has advanced by taking out Diego Schwartzman in three sets and David Ferrer in straights. The world No. 8 is also in need of a big result because he had not played since Miami due to a wrist injury. Djokovic remains far from his best and is not timing the ball as well as he normally does, which is bad news heading into a date with Nishikori. Madrid’s No. 6 seed will likely be the more aggressive of the two and eventually dictate enough rallies to survive a tight contest.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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Pablo Cuevas vs. Alexander Zverev

Clay may be emerging as Zverev’s favorite surface as he heads into quarterfinal action in Madrid on Friday. The 19th-ranked German’s 21-8 record in 2017 includes a 10-2 mark on clay and he is coming off a title last week in Munich. Zverev, who also turned in a runner-up performance on the slow stuff in Nice last spring, has advanced this week with wins over Fernando Verdasco, recent Istanbul champion Marin Cilic, and No. 11 seed Tomas Berdych.

Up next for the 20-year-old is a first-ever meeting with Cuevas, who is undoubtedly at his best on clay. The 27th-ranked Uruguayan is through to his third consecutive Masters 1000 quarterfinal (also in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo) thanks to defeats of Thomaz Bellucci, Nicolas Mahut, and Benoit Paire. While Zverev has played a ton of tennis these past two weeks, Cuevas needed three sets in each of his first three Madrid matches. Both players will be feeling it, and Zverev will have an easier time of ending points in quicker fashion thanks to his big serve and heavy groundstrokes.

Pick: Zverev in 3

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31 Comments on Madrid QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Zverev vs. Cuevas

  1. Ah this just great in my book! Sascha in 3
    My bracket has this Nole v Kei match and I have Kei winning.
    But I won’t be my pick was made at a point of no confidence in Novak even making it through his first round match. So it’s time to change my pick. Nole in 3.

  2. How confusing. Meant to say: But my pick is for Nole to win, since he’s made it this far. I think it will be a good match over 3 sets but can also see a straight sets win for Nole.

    • José Morgado‏ (a Portuguese journalist): “Kei pretty much said he still plans to play Rome and RG, but didn’t want to risk it. Sounded like he would play if it was an easier matchup.”

      • I think Kei is playing games. He withdrew from MC minutes after the draw, possibly because he wanted to deny Rafa being seeded 2 for reasons best known to himself. Maybe, it’s best for him to withdraw if he’s not going to give it his all because Djoko would have gained confidence by beating him.

  3. Oh!This certainly will give novak a lot of advantage for tomorrow’s semi..oh well!let’s see what happen if Rafa manage to get there….

    • May not be good for Djoko – short of matches. He will be physically fresh though. If Rafa makes it SF, I think Rafa would still win the SF.

      • Oh!Really Lucky?…i don’t have a worry not even one cell in me if Rafa meet other player’s whoever they are,but with Novak,i gotta admit..it worry me to no end!I hope you’re right Lucky!

        • It will do Rafa good to play Djokovic again before RG and if Rafa beats him that would be great for his mindset, if not, then he can do some more work on his game.

  4. I think Kei may skip Rome and rests and prepares for FO, and then probably skips grass and gets ready for the HCs and the USO. It seems he can’t play a full season without injury issues.

  5. That’s a shame -was really looking forward to this match. Nishikori is so brittle; I hope he can recover in time for RG. I don’t think it will give novak any advantage, though; it probably would have been better to get another match in. A solid win against a top 10 player might have boosted his confidence.

  6. Djoko in three for what it’s worth.
    Zverev in two tight sets,76 76.

    I backed Zverev to get this far,but had him losing to Sock.
    Interesting how clay could turn out to be Zverevs best surface (and Goffins)

    • Oops this us already being discussed. So Rafa needs to beat Goffin to set up a match with Novak.

      Rafa should be able to win in 2.

    • This is getting to be a bit too much with Kei. He needs to take time off and get geeked. Now this could give Novak an advantage.

      Hopefully Rafa doesn’t have a tough time with Goffin.

  7. My picks for today:

    Cuevas – Way too high odds on him. He is in top form on his favourite surface. Zverev playing great, but considered Cuevas should be most hungry and filled with energy for a most likely long battle, I’d give him a good chance of leaving the court today as winner.

    Kuznetsova – She simple played amazing yesterday when she crushed Bouchard. I was expecting lower odds than 1.80, but I feel like the 0-1 h2h in Mladenovics favor has something to do with the high odds, anyways, clear difference in form between those two heading into tonights match. Big stake for me on Kuznetsova.

  8. I hope Cuevas makes a good match out of it today, win or loss. I prefer his style than Zverev’s; I simply don’t like hard hitting and big serving tennis on clay. It’s getting boring to see such tennis style being played on every surface these days.

  9. Cuevas doesn’t know how to return big serves; you just can’t stay so close to the baseline to do so. You either do as Rafa does, ie from further back, or as Murray does – stands further back but once the serve is coming and he reading it, he moves into position, usually going forward to return it. Of course the best is Djoko, he simply could return with interest on most serves!

  10. Hey, you all should watch this Cuevas/Zverev match, some exhibition stuff by Cuevas now, he’s playing like Rafa did yesterday, hitting winners and passing shots and some interesting net points! Lovely to watch, no wonder he beat Rafa at BA or Rio once.

  11. Zverev lives by the serve, dies by the serve! His serve was off the mark in set two and so he lost the set to Cuevas 6-0! Credit to Cuevas for playing so well to fight back and wins the second set so convincingly!

    • I think Zverev is a lot more than a big serve.

      However, Cuevas is playing well now and knows how to construct points on clay. Congratulations to Cuevas for reaching the semi finals!

      • But Zverev was just serving big and hitting hard in this match, not much varieties; I’m glad Cuevas who played with so much varieties and intelligence won in the end, though a hard fought one.

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