Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas will add another chapter to a familiar matchup as they battle at the Mutua Madrid Open during semifinal action. The winner will meet either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem in the title match.

Rafael Nadal has proven to be a particularly unkind matchup for rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas. This will be the fourth encounter in a year’s time (they first met in Barcelona last season) and Tsitsipas has not yet managed to take a set. Furthermore, Nadal completely dismantled the Greek in their most recent encounter at the Australian Open. Of that match, Tsitsipas mused, “He has this talent that no other player has. I’ve never seen a player have this. He makes you play bad. I would call that a talent.”

Amazingly, Nadal is still looking for his first title of the season. The Spaniard, whose 2019 campaign is only disappointing by his lofty standards, has a Grand Slam final and three semis to show for his efforts. However, an injury-interrupted season threw off his typical clay court preparation. The good news for the Nadal camp is that the weaker-than-usual form that dogged him in Monte-Carlo and the first few matches in Barcelona appears to be resolved.

The world No. 2 has been in devastating form all week, particularly in his quarterfinal rout of Stan Wawrinka in which he won 6-1, 6-2. He appeared–if not at 100 percent of his best form–then close to it.

Tsitsipas continues to forge through 2019 on a tear that earned him a spot in the top 10. The Greek added his first clay court title last week in Estoril, and he has been excellent this week. He dispatched both Fernando Verdasco and world No. 4 Alexander Zverev en route to the semis.

Nadal’s heavy groundstrokes and the topspin for which he is well known for seem to make Tsitsipas mistime his shots. It is a similar problem to the one that beset Roger Federer for so many years: Nadal’s left forehand to the one-hand backhand breaks that shot down. It’s a pattern that Nadal has used to his advantage for a decade and a half. That Tsitsipas meets the Spaniard at home on clay won’t advance his cause, either.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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31 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. His serve is so horrible! He’s being broken three times already in the first set and Tsitsipas is serving for the set!

    What’s wrong with Rafa’s serve? Why he could barely make a first serve? Tsitispas is not a great returner of serves, so why worry when you serve?

    He has so many BP chances but only able to take one. Tsitsipas S&V a few times and Rafa couldn’t handle it; since Rafa stands so far back, why not returning serve DTL instead of going CC when Tsitsipas is waiting there?

    Rafa is in a mess now, he couldn’t play in the wind anymore! Now Tsitsipas has the first set. If Rafa doesn’t up his level here, it’ll be bye bye and he’s stopped in the SF for three straight tournaments on clay!

    The key to beating this Rafa on clay is to be aggressive and stays aggressive. Tsitsipas is taking following the footsteps of Foggy and Thiem.

  2. I don’t understand Rafa, if he’s able to serve his way to 5-2 in the second set, why served so poorly in set one and got broken three times? It’s almost as bad as that MC match vs Foggy, when Rafa could hardly hold his serve!

  3. Bad patch for Tsistipas, lost 12 of the last 13 points to trail 5-2. Still just one break, and he’s shown he can break Rafa’s serve. But his level has dropped and Nadal’s has increased. Plus, Stefanos has to deal with a rubbish crowd that cheers his double faults. Cmon Stefanos!

    • Great job to get a second break to begin serving in the third. At least it is Rafas hometown and he is a set down so you would expect the crowd to be biased. But anyone who has played Roger anywhere would know how to handle a rubbish crowd

  4. I notice that Rafa is getting slower in running to cover his FH corner, he’s like Fed nowadays, both are old!

  5. Thank you Tsitsipas for the wild BH that let Rafa has the second set!

    Rafa is serving at 82% first serve and winning 100% of those! What a difference between set one and set two! See, Rafa has to concentrate on his first serve and he’ll have it easier! It’s not like Tsitsipas is a greater returner of Djoko’s caliber!

    • Tsitsipas is doing all out attack, following the blueprint set by Thiem. It helps when Rafa’s FH has lost some of its power, so not troubling their SHBH on clay.

  6. Rafa is standing too far back to play, hence his shots are landing short allowing Tsitsipas to move in to attack them! Rafa has lost some of his power, his shots are not as lethal as before on both wings.

    Oh dear, the set one pattern of play returns, it seems. Rafa is so dumb to hit that drop shot when Tsitispas isn’t that far back!

  7. I noticed Tsitspas’s backhand had improved and might be able to hold Nadal back. He’s looking unbeatale right now. Will push Djokovic to the limit too.

    He’s a serious contender for the Roland Garros title.

    • No, Rafa has not played well at all. He looked nervous from the start. Tsitsipas, I have to say, has improved a great deal.

  8. I can’t stand the way Rafa plays, he’s basically defending and defending. Tsitsipas is the better player and deserves to win this.

    • True, Rafa playing like this will be embarrassed by Djoko in the final if he ever gets there.

      Tsitsipas plays well and he deserves to win. Rafa is horrible as his level just fluctuates so much from set to set, and making UEs more because of his own fault than because of his opponent.

  9. Rafa has himself to blame for making all those UEs; he’s probably worried about how the ball would come back from Tsitsipas!

    Tsitsipas serving for the match now!

  10. I cannot believe what I’m watching! From being sublime yesterday, Rafa is down to ridiculous today! What on earth is going on?

    • Precisely! What I can’t stand is that he plays so poorly after winning the second set comfortably, and then now has to fight so hard just to stay in the match! Really poor by Rafa’s standard!

      So Tsitsipas wins in the end. Congrats to Tsitsipas, we’ll done! As for Rafa, don’t know what to say about him. He making those stupid errors in the last game was just beyond horrible! I mean how can he mis-hit so many shots?

  11. I was in Madrid last year when Rafa lost to Thiem in the SF. Very demoralising for fans who have there to see him play.

      • “RG is on Tsitsipas’s racquet?!! 😂😂😂

        Last week it was Thiem because he beat Rafa…when Fog beats Rafa he is the most talented and the real contender..,you have to understand that it’s not them being so extraordinary it’s Rafa not being at his usual level on clay…

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