Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday afternoon.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 5-2, but that hardly tells the real story heading into this showdown. They have split four career clay-court encounters and Thiem has won two in a row at the world No. 1’s expense. The Austrian prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the 2017 French Open quarterfinals and 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 last spring in Monte-Carlo.
This has all the makings of their most intriguing matchup to date. Thiem now finds himself near the top of the sport, which was not the case while he was compiling a 0-5 record against Djokovic in the earlier stages of his career. The Serb, meanwhile, is back at the very top after being a shadow of his former and now-current self when he lost to Thiem at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters.
The second-best clay-courter in the world behind Rafael Nadal over the past few seasons, Thiem finished runner-up at both the Madrid Masters and Roland Garros last year. Could he be even better on the dirt in 2019? The world No. 5 recently triumphed in Barcelona–upsetting Nadal in the process–and so far this week he has ousted Reilly Opelka, Fabio Fognini, and Roger Federer. Thiem fought off two match points against Federer on Friday before scoring a 3-6, 7-6(11), 6-4 victory.
“The test today was huge and tomorrow is a different game, of course,” the fifth seed explained. “But I was playing Novak last year and two years ago, and he was not at his best, I guess. Now he is again. He’s won the last three Grand Slams and he is at the top of the ATP rankings again. So the challenge couldn’t be bigger.”
It’s a big one, but not the biggest; obviously a potential final against Nadal would be an even tougher test on paper. After all, the jury is still out on Djokovic–who struggled after dominating the Australian Open from start to finish. The 31-year-old suffered early exits from Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte-Carlo, bowing out to Philipp Kohlschreiber, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Daniil Medvedev, respectively. Madrid’s top seed advanced earlier this week with straight-set defeats of Taylor Fritz and Jeremy Chardy before getting quarterfinal walkover from Marin Cilic.
“Marin is a top player and he’s a good friend of mine and he did text me saying he got some food poisoning,” Djokovic noted. “So I really hope he’s going to recover for Rome. On my side, I tried to warm up and prepare for the match and then I went back on the court, trained for another hour, and got a good sweat in. (I’m) happy that I’m going to be fresh for my semifinal match-up tomorrow.”
Fatigue, though, should not be a problem for Thiem. It never has been throughout his career, and he has spent no more than five hours and 15 minutes on court in three Madrid matches despite his battle with Federer.
On this surface and in these conditions, it would not be surprising to see a confident Thiem out-serve and out-hit Djokovic from the back of the court.
Pick: Thiem in 3
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