Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas will add another chapter to a familiar matchup as they battle at the Mutua Madrid Open during semifinal action. The winner will meet either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem in the title match.

Rafael Nadal has proven to be a particularly unkind matchup for rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas. This will be the fourth encounter in a year’s time (they first met in Barcelona last season) and Tsitsipas has not yet managed to take a set. Furthermore, Nadal completely dismantled the Greek in their most recent encounter at the Australian Open. Of that match, Tsitsipas mused, “He has this talent that no other player has. I’ve never seen a player have this. He makes you play bad. I would call that a talent.”

Amazingly, Nadal is still looking for his first title of the season. The Spaniard, whose 2019 campaign is only disappointing by his lofty standards, has a Grand Slam final and three semis to show for his efforts. However, an injury-interrupted season threw off his typical clay court preparation. The good news for the Nadal camp is that the weaker-than-usual form that dogged him in Monte-Carlo and the first few matches in Barcelona appears to be resolved.

The world No. 2 has been in devastating form all week, particularly in his quarterfinal rout of Stan Wawrinka in which he won 6-1, 6-2. He appeared–if not at 100 percent of his best form–then close to it.

Tsitsipas continues to forge through 2019 on a tear that earned him a spot in the top 10. The Greek added his first clay court title last week in Estoril, and he has been excellent this week. He dispatched both Fernando Verdasco and world No. 4 Alexander Zverev en route to the semis.

Nadal’s heavy groundstrokes and the topspin for which he is well known for seem to make Tsitsipas mistime his shots. It is a similar problem to the one that beset Roger Federer for so many years: Nadal’s left forehand to the one-hand backhand breaks that shot down. It’s a pattern that Nadal has used to his advantage for a decade and a half. That Tsitsipas meets the Spaniard at home on clay won’t advance his cause, either.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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27 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Absolutely deserved by Tsitsi. Rafa def could have played better but Tsitsi s pressure was too much. Rafa may actually need a favorable draw to win rg this year. He cannot seem to rein ppl in this year when the opponent is hot which he could do earlier

    • Rafa is def not the fav to win rg…he may face tsitsipas in qf then thiem in sf then Novak…too much for him when he is short of confidence

    • But because Stefanos beat Rafa in Madrid does not make him the second coming of Borg or likely to win trophy at RG – best of 5 on RG clay. Much different than Madrid.

      But he does get kudos for holding it together in front of Rafa’s home crouw. Stefanos mentally tough – I give him that. Let’s calm down and see what he can do vs Novak tomorrow.

      • Elizabeth,

        The voice of reason! Common sense! Tsitsipas did well to beat Rafa in Madrid. He was aggressive and played like he believed he could win. However, Rafa did make far too many UE’s. Also his inability to convert break points was glaring.

        But beating Rafa at RG in a best of five set match, is a whole other thing.

        Tsitsipas does NOT have RG on his racket! That is a moronic comment!

  2. Tsitsipas is a charming young man, it’s hard not to like him even when he beats our fave Rafa. I hope he can go one step further and wins his first Masters title.

  3. This match shows me that defending is not enough; you need both defence and offence to win, esp against aggressive players.

  4. Is rafa assured of no 2 seeding now that fed is playing rome…I think rafa needs to win one match in Rome to lock no 2 seeding

    • We shall see. I think it’s possible Nole wins this time. It has to be exhausting to do what Stefanos just did and turn around and beat Nole. But I’m ready for it!

  5. This Rafa would have been destroyed by Nole anyway.. also this match is already too exhausting for Rafa to be able to play any better in the finals so overall better for him to go and have some rest ahead of Rome…
    Tsitsipas played well, but Rafa made so many uncharacteristic errors and served poorly to let Tsitsipas dictate the points…
    I feel sorry for Rafa but he needs to go one level up… He may achieve that in Rome or not, but I still think he will be ready for RG…

    Vamos Champ!

  6. Rafa seems to be in good spirits after the loss, joking around saying he will not want to play on the junior circuit with Tsitsi since he cant differentiate between a ball that is in and that is out. Also says that what is happening now is normal and not what he had been able to achieve over the years on the surface.

    On to Rome!!

  7. Got to give credit where it’s due. Tsitsipas was agressive on the big points and got the win because he was hitting big and deep. Nadal level was similar to what he was with Wawa. Finals I think is gonna be Nole. Though I hope Tsits can recover mentally and physically to make it close as I love his variety and net play. Though I am a Nole fan and want him to win 🙂

  8. Fantastic win for Tsitsipas! One thing we can say is: if you’re already very good at 19-20, you’re probably going to keep improving, which is what Stefanos has done. Rafa did not play poorly today, not much different than yesterday, imo. The big difference was that Tsitsipas came to play, stayed aggressive, and did not back down after losing the 2nd set. Well done!

  9. They just said “Djokovic wins the Madrid Open for the third time.’

    This was straight after getting Theim and Nadal completely wrong lmao

    They know shame! At least show some humility after getting it wrong and hint that you arent sure about your next predicton.

  10. They got at least 70-80% of the NBA Play-off predictions wrong also. One day they say a team has these permanant flaws and cant win and after they win they say this team is unstoppable and the other team has permanent flaws and get that wrong also.

  11. This site is the best at tennis prediction, that’s why I come here however most of the others just use the bookies odds as a guide. If the odds are 1.50 they win in 3 sets.

    They dont offer any value with their service and their story isnt even good, they just try to get traffic for affiliate marketing.

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