Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday afternoon.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 5-2, but that hardly tells the real story heading into this showdown. They have split four career clay-court encounters and Thiem has won two in a row at the world No. 1’s expense. The Austrian prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the 2017 French Open quarterfinals and 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 last spring in Monte-Carlo.
This has all the makings of their most intriguing matchup to date. Thiem now finds himself near the top of the sport, which was not the case while he was compiling a 0-5 record against Djokovic in the earlier stages of his career. The Serb, meanwhile, is back at the very top after being a shadow of his former and now-current self when he lost to Thiem at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters.
The second-best clay-courter in the world behind Rafael Nadal over the past few seasons, Thiem finished runner-up at both the Madrid Masters and Roland Garros last year. Could he be even better on the dirt in 2019? The world No. 5 recently triumphed in Barcelona–upsetting Nadal in the process–and so far this week he has ousted Reilly Opelka, Fabio Fognini, and Roger Federer. Thiem fought off two match points against Federer on Friday before scoring a 3-6, 7-6(11), 6-4 victory.
“The test today was huge and tomorrow is a different game, of course,” the fifth seed explained. “But I was playing Novak last year and two years ago, and he was not at his best, I guess. Now he is again. He’s won the last three Grand Slams and he is at the top of the ATP rankings again. So the challenge couldn’t be bigger.”
It’s a big one, but not the biggest; obviously a potential final against Nadal would be an even tougher test on paper. After all, the jury is still out on Djokovic–who struggled after dominating the Australian Open from start to finish. The 31-year-old suffered early exits from Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte-Carlo, bowing out to Philipp Kohlschreiber, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Daniil Medvedev, respectively. Madrid’s top seed advanced earlier this week with straight-set defeats of Taylor Fritz and Jeremy Chardy before getting quarterfinal walkover from Marin Cilic.
“Marin is a top player and he’s a good friend of mine and he did text me saying he got some food poisoning,” Djokovic noted. “So I really hope he’s going to recover for Rome. On my side, I tried to warm up and prepare for the match and then I went back on the court, trained for another hour, and got a good sweat in. (I’m) happy that I’m going to be fresh for my semifinal match-up tomorrow.”
Fatigue, though, should not be a problem for Thiem. It never has been throughout his career, and he has spent no more than five hours and 15 minutes on court in three Madrid matches despite his battle with Federer.
On this surface and in these conditions, it would not be surprising to see a confident Thiem out-serve and out-hit Djokovic from the back of the court.
Pick: Thiem in 3
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Djokovic in two.
Federer should have been child’s play for Thiem, given how much he struggled with a guy 10 years older than him who hasn’t been on clay since 2016, Djokovic is gonna be licking his lips.
Everyone is picking Thiem but I am holding out hope for a Nole win.
Thiem in three
Djokovic hasn’t dropped a service game, that’s enough for me by the World Number One.
At many hundreds of millions net worth, Djokovic doesn’t get out a bed unless there’s something to prove and with all the attention going towards other players on tour since he won the Australian Open (easily) and with another major just around the corner, reckon he’s starting to find his mojo again. No better place to start than Madrid where the conditions will suit him down to a tee.
Djokovic in 2
This match is on Novak’s racquet. Will he find the form he showed from Wimbledon and especially at the AO this year? If so, he will win the match here and the title, quite possibly without losing a set going forward. But he hasn’t shown that form since January, and I don’t think we can assume he can dial it up at will. He has been playing better, but Thiem is a couple steps up from what he has encountered in Madrid so far.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see Djokovic’s A game until RG. Thiem will play better than he did against Federer, mostly because he will have more time. Thiem in 3.
Thiem in straight.
Theim is being broken too easily and is up against the best returner in the world with plenty to play for right now.
Oh..snap Nols. This not fun for me to watch.
Well, the TB worked out. But I was wondering. 😀
Go Nole!
Thiem just goes for broke all the time.
And it works a lot of the time!
I don’t know if there are NBA basketball fans on here, but Dominic Thiem is the James Harden of the ATP. He just goes for broke so much, it’s always feels like a “hope it goes in” scenario, even when he’s on. He has gotten about being a little more patient, but he’s still so prone to being wild. He can obviously still win this match, but I always biting my nails when watching him play in big moments against the top guys. James Harden is the same way- he lives and dies by the 3-point shot. If he goes 0-15 on 3-point shots throughout a game, he will still take them in crunch time even though it’s not likely he will make them.
And Thiem’s baseline game should be a high percentage type of game because he imparts so much topspin on the ball, but it just doesn’t feel like it is.
It’s working for Thiem vs Nole. Dominant Thiem going for broke and staying out of rallies with Novak. Every whack of the ball is a (potential) winner.
Thiem has lots of confidence to play that way. He’s got Novak on his heels. I don’t know how Nole will adjust or if he can. Thank goodness Thiem does miss some.
So many times Thiem has a sitting winner at crucial points but he overplays the ball and just misses the line. He could easily have taken the first set if he had calmed down a bit and be more measured.
I don’t watch basketball, Kevin – I’d have no time for WTA and ATP. Really prefer WTA right now.
Thiem’s aggression pays off and he breaks Djoker. He leads 4:2
If Thiem doesn’t go for broke all the time he will have trouble beating the Big 3 because he doesn’t have enough layers in his game.
I agree with Nadline about Thiem. He doesn’t have a complete set of tools, unlike the big three.
Both Fed and Djoko’s serve exposed Thiem’s weakness in his ROS. He couldn’t vary the way he returns, just hits as hard as possible and hoping that it lands in.
His court craft needs some improvements – he’s always hitting CC BH to BH when Djoko was waiting there, when there’s the open court out there. I feel the right thing to do is to make your opponent run as much as possible and to make things difficult for your opponent. Of course hitting to the open court could have some risks, when Djoko is so quick to cover the court and may hit his FHCC or even FHDTL for example, but at least make Djoko run for the shot and increases the chances of UEs from Djoko.
Djoko is no.1 for a reason; he thinks a few steps ahead and is ready for Thiem’s next and next next moves; he has already anticipated what Thiem would do or where Thiem is hitting to. Thiem should learn to do the same if he wants to elevate his game to another level closer to the big three or four’s.
Thiem is always trying to hit hard and uses his raw power to overwhelm his opponent, but I find him lacking in precision especially when he’s rushed or when made to hit a shot on the run. The big three are really something, they could come up with all kinds of shots when their back are against the wall, or at crunch moments, and yet they usually don’t compromise on their precision.
The use of drop shots by Thiem – why drop shot Djoko time and again when Djoko was so quick around the court and was standing so close to the baseline? Thiem hit some drop shots CC at Djoko when Djoko was there, why not hit it DTL instead for a change? I feel Thiem’s footwork isn’t that great, he should take quick small steps to adjust his position so that he can get into good position to change direction with his shots. He hit a few DTL shots wide I feel it’s because he couldn’t get into position quick enough to hit them well.
Thiem needs to add more dimensions into his game, if not, he’ll get beaten by the big three more often than he beats them; and, in order to win a slam, chances are Thiem has to beat at least one of them.
Thiem made much the same mistake against Novak that Stan made against Rafa: he actually didn’t go for enough winners and tried to rally with Djokovic too often. What is he doing hitting so many drop shots when he has the capacity to blast it past his opponent? When you have the power that Thiem and Stan have on your ground-strokes, you have to use it.
Here’s a comparison. Stan was able to blast through Djokovic at RG 2015. Thiem has at least as much power as Stan, measured by average ground-stroke speed. Madrid is a faster court, and Novak was not playing at the level today that he did against Wawrinka in 2015; he was younger, faster, better on that day. No doubt that Thiem has the ability to do it; in fact, if he played like he did against Federer he would have won today. The template for Thiem has to be to go for broke, with the occasional slice, drop shot, coming to net just to keep his opponent honest.
Come on Break back Nole! 😀 whew
Thiem is serving very well this game and if he keeps doing that – Nole can’t break him. This will be decided in 3 sets. I’m happy with what I’ve seen from Nole so far. He’s not as flat and lacking match play as I expected he would be after that WO from Cilic.
Omg Thiem went off and let Nole break him.
Novak will attempt to serve for the match. But I expect a fight from Thiem.
Bloopers, Ouch – wasted opportunity. Face Palm.
Now another miserable tb
I just realized that Rafa and Novak haven’t contested a Masters Final in almost exactly 5 years! That’s crazy!
I’m surprised it has been that long – since 2014? Which one did they play and who won?
Miami 2014 easily won by Nole in straights
It was the Rome 2014 Final. Novak won, and I believe it was in 3 sets. After that Final, there was a lot of doubt leading into RG that year that that Rafa would be able to hold off Novak once again and win a 9th title. Rafa exited early at both Monte Carlo and Barcelona, including losing to Ferrer, which was shot given how much Rafa had always dominated Ferrer on clay. Then at Madrid, Nishikori was up a set and 4-2 and was on the verge of winning the title when he he got hurt and then lost 7 straight games before retiring. And then the Rome Final happened which was close, but there was no question leading into RG that there had never been as much uncertainty about Rafa winning as there was that year. But sure enough, Rafa showed that beating him at RG is a whole other animal to beating him at smaller tournaments. He was still the King of RG.
I actually have viewed this clay season thus far as similar to 2014. While Rafa lost at Mc and Barcelona, for me that just isn’t enough evidence that Rafa shouldn’t still be favored to win RG. By the time we get to RG, however, it might not look like 2014 at all, as Rafa could easily win Madrid and Rome, and then there’s no question that he would still be the overwhelming favorite. But if Rafa doesn’t win Madrid, then it will still be like 2014 in my mind, where Rafa should be favored for RG but not overwhelmingly.
Thiem has obviously made steps in the right direction, but as of this moment I see no difference for him between this clay season and the previous 2 clay seasons. For the 3rd straight year he has beaten Rafa at a smaller tournament, but has yet to give me any reason to believe he is ready to beat Rafa at RG, in best-of-five. As I’ve said before, it’s not like Thiem came close the last two years… He was made by Rafa to look like a 100th ranked player in the world at RG.
Obviously Thiem could still win Rome, and give me more belief in him, but even then it just doesn’t address the fact that beating Nadal at RG is just not remotely the same thing as doing it at a Masters or a 500. I actually would have more faith in Novak if he were to meet Rafa at RG than I would in Thiem. If he can be in good form, Novak at least has a defeat over Rafa at RG on his resume, and was just points away from beating him there in 2013 when Rafa was at his best. I just haven’t seen that level from Thiem at RG. Sure, he came incredibly close at the US Open- but let’s be honest… Rafa at the US Open is not Rafa at RG.
Still a lot of clay court tennis to be played before RG, but his is just how I feel at this moment.
Thiem’s game lacks subtlety. He just hits hard and sometimes go for broke too. Even when he does win points at the net with good enough volleying skills, it doesn’t look like he has deft touches or soft hands (unlike Rafa for example who has good hands when at the net and at the same time, could hit with power and topspin with his FH).
Djoko isn’t playing at the top of his game in this match, yet he’s clutch enough, playing some incredible defence, to save so many BPs and scraped past two TBs to win the match. I think Thiem will have a hard time at RG, and it’s not only about Rafa, but Djoko too, that Thiem may have to overcome there.
I agree with you 100%, Lucky. I guess I’m not quite as doubtful about Thiem vs. Djokovic at RG just because I’ve at least seen Thiem destroy defending champion Djoko at RG, even if Djoko wasn’t at his best. If they faced at RG this year, and Djoko potentially still has question marks surrounding him, then Thiem could at least know that he has done it before. As for potentially facing Rafa at RG, Theim has extremely deep ass-whooping scar tissue. I would imagine that Thiem lays awake at night most of the year thinking about how badly Rafa has destroyed him In Paris, and how incredible it would be if he were actually able to “slay the beast”. That pressure builds and builds and builds overtime, and I just don’t have faith yet that Thiem is strong enough to overcome it. He obviously has the game to do it. I just don’t believe he is mentally tough enough yet to take on the hardest task in tennis history. When those massive low-percentage shots aren’t falling inside the lines, I don’t trust that he won’t crumble as that aforementioned overwhelming pressure reaches fever pitch.