Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas will add another chapter to a familiar matchup as they battle at the Mutua Madrid Open during semifinal action. The winner will meet either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem in the title match.

Rafael Nadal has proven to be a particularly unkind matchup for rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas. This will be the fourth encounter in a year’s time (they first met in Barcelona last season) and Tsitsipas has not yet managed to take a set. Furthermore, Nadal completely dismantled the Greek in their most recent encounter at the Australian Open. Of that match, Tsitsipas mused, “He has this talent that no other player has. I’ve never seen a player have this. He makes you play bad. I would call that a talent.”

Amazingly, Nadal is still looking for his first title of the season. The Spaniard, whose 2019 campaign is only disappointing by his lofty standards, has a Grand Slam final and three semis to show for his efforts. However, an injury-interrupted season threw off his typical clay court preparation. The good news for the Nadal camp is that the weaker-than-usual form that dogged him in Monte-Carlo and the first few matches in Barcelona appears to be resolved.

The world No. 2 has been in devastating form all week, particularly in his quarterfinal rout of Stan Wawrinka in which he won 6-1, 6-2. He appeared–if not at 100 percent of his best form–then close to it.

Tsitsipas continues to forge through 2019 on a tear that earned him a spot in the top 10. The Greek added his first clay court title last week in Estoril, and he has been excellent this week. He dispatched both Fernando Verdasco and world No. 4 Alexander Zverev en route to the semis.

Nadal’s heavy groundstrokes and the topspin for which he is well known for seem to make Tsitsipas mistime his shots. It is a similar problem to the one that beset Roger Federer for so many years: Nadal’s left forehand to the one-hand backhand breaks that shot down. It’s a pattern that Nadal has used to his advantage for a decade and a half. That Tsitsipas meets the Spaniard at home on clay won’t advance his cause, either.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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30 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. I hope Rafa wins it in straight sets. I like Tsitsipas but I think he’s not there yet to challenge Rafa on clay.

  2. It’s humanly impossible to beat Nadal on clay with a single-handed backhand. Just ask Federer and Wawrinka…Unless of course, you’re Gustavo Kuerten or Thomas Muster.

    Nadal in 2

  3. This explains Rafa’s form lately. Players have their ups and downs like everyone else, they can’t be expected to perform when we put the switch like robots.

    http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=149494

    RAFAEL NADAL: “Well, it’s just a personal feeling. As I say, the other day after Indian Wells mentally I went down, I had a drop down, a big drop down after what happened to me.

    You know, I had different struggles like in Acapulco where I was not able to train for five days. Then I recovered. I was playing quite well in Indian Wells and a few things have happened. I had to stop once again for two weeks. I had to try to recover and mentally.

    I had a complicated moment, I had a drop down. It was really complicated for me to come back to be able to stay fit and to recover that energy that I need to play. And right now I think I have it again.

    So, this is the joy that I need, the joy that I need to do things and this is what gives you the drive and the passion to do things and then fix my work or not.

    Right now, I have the possibility during these next two weeks to do something good and before, I didn’t have this opportunity.

    And normally, when you have the capacity, this is what makes the difference, to have the energy and the joy and the attitude to be able to try to do it and then you have some better times and worse times. This is just part of a sportsman’s life.

    But I think that right now, I have the drive and the option and the will to do it. Two weeks’ ago, I didn’t have the energy. Right now, I have that energy to do the things real good.”

  4. Djokovic seems to be heating up nicely. If Rafa does not win the rg i hope it is Nole who gets his second career gs

    • vmk1

      Nice to read another Djokovic fan here. Thanks for acknowledging him as an atg.
      We shall see how the draw goes.

      Vamos Rafa!

  5. I appreciated reading Rafa’s thoughts. It helped me to understand what he has been going through. I did feel that another knee injury at I/W was very damaging psychologically. This business of start, stop, start, stop has to take a toll.

    I have always loved Rafa’s honesty. No baloney, no false bravado. He keeps it real.

    • Hi there nny. Long time no see. Hope you’re keeping well. Fingers crossed Rafa will take care of the young Greek this evening. Can’t wait to see Rafa getting married later this year

  6. Hi there nny. Long time no see. Hope you’re keeping well. Fingers crossed Rafa will take care of the young Greek this evening. Can’t wait to see Rafa getting married later this year When the news broke I had a sinking feeling that Rafa was to retire after this year’s Roland Garros. Everyone else pooh poohed the idea. After 14 years with Ischa why else would he have chosen to suddenly get married – unless that is she is already pregnant!!!

    What is your take on this sudden change of heart?

    • ed,

      Hey great to see you here! I posted a comment a few weeks ago about how I am going back and forth regarding Rafa retiring, it could be that he is getting married because he is going to retire. Too many injuries. Maybe his girlfriend is pregnant.

      Rafa is really struggling in this match. He is serving very poorly and not being aggressive. Just when I thought he was getting his form back. Tsitsipas is playing like he believes he can win.

      I have had a feeling that Rafa may retire soon. I haven’t said much about it on here. I have been keeping it to myself. I don’t think you are off base with your thoughts. I wish he would keep on playing but I think it’s just been too much with all the injuries. Usually he finds himself on the clay but that hasn’t happened.

      The bottom line is that you may be right about why Rafa is getting married now.

  7. I expect an absolute drubbing of Tsitsipas by Rafa. I’m gonna guess 6-1, 6-2. I don’t trust Tsitsi at all against Rafa. Especially after that AO ass-kicking, I think Rafa is just a bad matchup for Tsitsi- at any tournament. On clay? Forget about it. I will be downright shocked if Tsitsipas can even get a set.

    • You’re wrong Kevin, Tsitispas is giving Rafa plenty of problems.

      Rafa serves poorly, I guess it’s due to the windy conditions ( he served well against Stan, not so windy last night I think). Once he has to serve a second serve, he has to fight so hard to win the point. When he lands in his first serve, he could win the point easily.

      I also notice that Rafa’s CC FH has lost a bit of its power too, perhaps in windy conditions he couldn’t hit it with depth, allowing Tsitsipas time to counter it even at his BH wing.

  8. I haven’t been able to watch much of Tsistipas this tournament, so I can’t really make an informed assessment of his chances. Nadal has looked very good the last two matches, much better than previously this year. If he brings that form, Stefanos will have to serve lights out and basically red-line to keep things close. Given that after their last match he said that Nadal doesn’t let you play your game, I think that’s unlikely. Nadal in 2.

  9. Rafa is really playing some rubbish tennis in this match! He is really having some bad ups and downs! Sigh!

    He is so passive and defensive……its just freaking me out!!

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