Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will continue their Indian Wells campaigns on Friday. They are set for respective quarterfinal contests against Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Kei Nishikori

Nadal and Nishikori will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 7-1 in favor of Nadal, but the last two meetings have not gone particularly well for the Spaniard after once standing at a perfect 6-0 against Nishikori. At the 2014 Madrid Masters, Japan’s top player led by a set and a break before retiring with a back injury in the third. Nishikori finally beat Nadal for the first time at last summer’s Montreal Masters via a 6-2, 6-4 decision.

Both players saved match point in the Indian Wells fourth round to book their spots in the quarterfinals. After battling past Gilles Muller in three sets and Fernando Verdasco in straights, Nadal outlasted Alexander Zverev 6-7(8), 6-0, 7-5 on Thursday. Nishikori took care of Mikhail Kukushkin and Steve Johnson in two sets before overcoming John Isner 1-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(5) despite failing to generate a single break chance. There is no reason to take Nadal’s 7-1 lifetime record against Nishikori into account for this one, as this is not the Nadal of yesteryear and Nishikori really should have won each of their last two showdowns. The No. 5 seed will likely be allowed to play offensive tennis just about from start to finish in this one and that should give him an edge.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Djokovic has shown recent signs of vulnerability, but he appears to be back in total control heading into the Indian Wells quarters. The world No. 1 retired from a Dubai quarterfinal against Feliciano Lopez because of an eye infection, needed five sets to get past Mikhail Kukushkin in a Davis Cup tie between Serbia and Kazakhstan, and lost a set in the desert to Bjorn Fratangelo. Since then, however, Djokovic has picked up the pace. He took the last two sets against Fratangelo 6-1 and 6-2, beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 7-5, 7-5 in the last 32, and had no trouble in a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Lopez on Wednesday.
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Next up for the top seed on Friday is a 21st career clash against Tsonga. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 14-6, including 12-1 in the last 13 encounters. They most recently faced each other last fall in the Shanghai title match, with Djokovic coasting 6-2, 6-4. Tsonga is through to the Indian Wells quarters for just the second time in his career thanks to straight-set beatdowns of Vincent Millot, Sam Querrey, and Dominic Thiem. The ninth-ranked Frenchman has never advanced to the semis of this tournament. Tsonga has been known to go on incredible hot streaks, but this one can likely be chalked up to lackluster competition and a worn-out Thiem. Going up against Djokovic will obviously be a much different proposition–and one that is likely to end poorly for Tsonga yet again.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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18 Comments on Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

  1. I predicted Rafa in 3 sets. But I am very happy to be wrong about the number of sets!

    I expect Rafa to meet Novak in the semis. I do not think Rafa is ready to beat him at this time. However, I am hoping that Rafa will make it competitive. I don’t want to see another 6-2, 6-3 or even 6-1 scoreline.

    That will tell us more about where Rafa is at now. You have to measure yourself against the best.

  2. I could not see the match as it overlapped with my own training but I followed the live score from time to time and was thrilled to see Rafa wining the first set after being broken early and then winning the whole match in 2! Great stuff!

    I read your comments and now I am going to watch the replay and enjoy every bit of it! 🙂

    I am so proud of our Rafa! This is what I’ve been trying to say, it is a different Rafa in IW than Rafa of Jan-Feb 2016…I saw determination in him and his FH being better and better…his serve is clicking and he used it to save some key points, his movement is improved…he is getting there!

    Brilliant win for Rafa! Love it!!!

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. Didn’t see the match because of practice but I’m psyched Rafa won. I had a gut feeling he would tenaciously pull it out but I picked kei in three. VAMOS RAFA!!

  4. I don’t know if anyone is watching this but in my view this is perhaps the smartest match Tsonga has ever played in terms of tactics!

    I hope Rafa and Roig are watching and taking notes.

    What I am referring to is the intelligent use of backhand slices. I am surprised the commentators are not talking about it and jsut keep going on and on and on about tsonga’s firepower.

    Djokovic’s game has no such weakness but there are a couple of ‘vulnerabilities’. Tsonga’s backhand slice has improved so much and he is using it to set up forehands. He patiently slices to djokovic’s backhand or sometimes to the forehand to draw neutral or short balls and then unleashes.

    Djokovic’s game lacks a bit of explosiveness… he can generate some real pace but in general he is not that good with generating pace off sliced balls.. The slices don’t necessarily have to to skid too much through the court… Just having decent length and not giving djokovic pace…

    Rafa HAS that kind of slice, fortunately but what he lacks is getting length….he keeps hitting short slices and they sit up….

    If rafa can improve the length on his slices, he can easily set up forehands or even backhands to attack and dictate! He has done it on a few occasions like AO 2012 final, USO 2010 final but is not consistent.

    It is also such a great way to compensate for his loss of foot speed….

    Fed has a great slice but his backhand drivedoes not have the ability to take advantage and his ability to run around his backhand (although INCREDIBLE) is one level below Rafa’s…..

  5. Tsonga is playing and fighting so well, nice to see. Sorta hoping Nole loses. Nole’s energy has sucked through all his matches here so far. Hope Jelena will be in Miami.

    Also – though I didn’t watch — great win for Rafa over Kei!
    And in case anyone doubts my belief in Rafa – here’s what I said a month ago:

    ratcliff FEBRUARY 21, 2016 AT 5:56 PM
    My dumb question watching the last set Cuevas v Rafa is: does anyone think perhaps this Rafa might have better chances on slow hard court like at Indian Wells? I’m guessing, yes.

    Well, I guessed something right back then ?

    • lol…well done!

      Well, Tsonga disappointed in both the tie breaks…. But, he played quite well.

      Novak has not outstanding but just did enough to overcome an inspired opponent.

      Remember that it is scorching hot out there and the conditions were also helping Jo’s forehand perhaps.

      These will be good conditions for Rafa as tomorrow’s forecast is even hotter weather.

      based on today, one would think Rafa has a decent chance BUT HOW MANY TIMES in the past has djokovic raised his level to new heights when it comes to playing Rafa. What he did in Doha….argh I cringe every time I recall that match.

      Novak’s the massive favourite but Rafa can do some damage here…

      • Yes he’s the favorite – can’t deny it. But you have a good point about the heat and forecast. Also yes, Nole’s energy has been low and listless but seeing Rafa or Fed across the net has given him wings when I was sure he’d lose too many times, vr!

        The heat is will be better for Rafa than Nole – and Rafa has been impressive already beating a new fave (Zev) and an older fave (Kei); the door is open – at least a little – for Rafa to get a much needed win over Nole ole. Oh dear – should be careful what I wish for, (but I’m loving the anticipation!) Should be a great SF.

      • And btw, I would have been equally sad if Zev Minor and Kei had lost to Nole! I’m weird like that…

        Against each other though? Bring it ON ?

  6. Rafa’s quotes from his post-match interviews:
    “I had a tough draw from the beginning,” said Nadal. “To be able to be where I am today, in the semifinals, and especially with the victory of today against a top player, that’s something very important for my confidence. It’s very important to believe in myself too, and winning the way that I did.
    “Let’s try my best tomorrow. Let’s keep playing with the same energy. And we’ll see what’s going on. I know Novak is playing unbelievable, so it’s difficult. But I am here to keep enjoying, keep trying my best, and keep playing with the right energy.”
    “When I got the break back I felt it was a very, very important moment,” said Nadal, reflecting on the first set. “I feel strong mentally. I feel I have the right energy. When that happens, the rest is a little bit less difficult.
    “I am able to fight for every ball. I am able to keep going during the whole match, believe in myself again, and that makes me play with more energy, less nerves. That’s so important for me. It’s the way I have played during all my career, and that gives me a lot. And this week is being very, very positive for me. Very important.” ¤¤

    http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/en/media-and-news/news/2016/03/18/nadal-beats-nishikori-for-sf-spot

    (Official transcripts of press conferences are released on a 24-hour delay.)

    Keep believing, Rafa! ?

  7. Rafa’s comments are really good to read. I think his assessment is spot on.

    Novak just seems so confident against Rafa these days. So it’s up to Rafa to try to change the dynamic. Novak may not have looked at his best this week, but we have seen him raise his level of play when he faces rafa.

    I did watch Novak and Tsonga. I thought Tsonga played well l, but just wasn’t mentally strong enough in the TB’s. Novak did do just enough to get the win.

    This has been a good week for rafa. Getting to the semis of a Masters event is the best result he’s had. Beating Nishi the way he did was impressive. His best match by far.

    I just hope he can come out and just go for his shots and keep it together against Novak.

    It’s important for Rafa to be competitive in this sport again. Tennis needs rafa.

  8. Rafa has broken out of his chains and is now able to hold his nerve throughout a match. If he wants my advice, I’d say, don’t go for too much at crucial points, that way, you won’t lose your serve so often. Play safe ping pong like Nole for 80% of the time and wait for your opponents to make mistakes. On the other hand, don’t play ping pong, because that’s as boring as hell.

    Vamos Rafa!

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