Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will continue their Indian Wells campaigns on Friday. They are set for respective quarterfinal contests against Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Kei Nishikori

Nadal and Nishikori will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 7-1 in favor of Nadal, but the last two meetings have not gone particularly well for the Spaniard after once standing at a perfect 6-0 against Nishikori. At the 2014 Madrid Masters, Japan’s top player led by a set and a break before retiring with a back injury in the third. Nishikori finally beat Nadal for the first time at last summer’s Montreal Masters via a 6-2, 6-4 decision.

Both players saved match point in the Indian Wells fourth round to book their spots in the quarterfinals. After battling past Gilles Muller in three sets and Fernando Verdasco in straights, Nadal outlasted Alexander Zverev 6-7(8), 6-0, 7-5 on Thursday. Nishikori took care of Mikhail Kukushkin and Steve Johnson in two sets before overcoming John Isner 1-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(5) despite failing to generate a single break chance. There is no reason to take Nadal’s 7-1 lifetime record against Nishikori into account for this one, as this is not the Nadal of yesteryear and Nishikori really should have won each of their last two showdowns. The No. 5 seed will likely be allowed to play offensive tennis just about from start to finish in this one and that should give him an edge.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Djokovic has shown recent signs of vulnerability, but he appears to be back in total control heading into the Indian Wells quarters. The world No. 1 retired from a Dubai quarterfinal against Feliciano Lopez because of an eye infection, needed five sets to get past Mikhail Kukushkin in a Davis Cup tie between Serbia and Kazakhstan, and lost a set in the desert to Bjorn Fratangelo. Since then, however, Djokovic has picked up the pace. He took the last two sets against Fratangelo 6-1 and 6-2, beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 7-5, 7-5 in the last 32, and had no trouble in a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Lopez on Wednesday.
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Next up for the top seed on Friday is a 21st career clash against Tsonga. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 14-6, including 12-1 in the last 13 encounters. They most recently faced each other last fall in the Shanghai title match, with Djokovic coasting 6-2, 6-4. Tsonga is through to the Indian Wells quarters for just the second time in his career thanks to straight-set beatdowns of Vincent Millot, Sam Querrey, and Dominic Thiem. The ninth-ranked Frenchman has never advanced to the semis of this tournament. Tsonga has been known to go on incredible hot streaks, but this one can likely be chalked up to lackluster competition and a worn-out Thiem. Going up against Djokovic will obviously be a much different proposition–and one that is likely to end poorly for Tsonga yet again.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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64 Comments on Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

  1. After beating Zverev I favour Nadal in three.
    I don’t think anybody picks anyone other than Djoko for the other match..

  2. Well, you’ve got the Muller, Verdasco and Zverev picks woefully wrong, so I guess you feel like you may as well carry on.

    • WOEFULLY???? hahahaha. Muller almost won and Zverev SHOULD have won. Have you actually watched tennis this week or do you just not know the definition of “woefully”?

          • Rafa SHOULD have won the first set TB, but he made an unforced error on his second set point. Zverev was lucky.

          • ¤¤ Nadal held a set point in the opening set tie-break, but squandered the opportunity by overcooking a forehand. Down a set, the Spaniard rebounded, winning the second set going away, 25 points to nine.
            “First set I had big chance with not a difficult forehand down the line that I missed,” Nadal noted. “But after that, I think I played a great second set. But sometimes when you win a set that easily, it’s dangerous for the beginning of the next one. The beginning of the third he played aggressive, and I think I lost the rhythm a bit, so I was in trouble.” ¤¤ [Source: ATP]

  3. —Nishikori finally beat Nadal for the first time at last summer’s Montreal Masters via a 6-2, 6-4 decision.—
    ===
    .
    Finally brought happiness to the AntiRafaBrigade. LOL

    • That win, augusta, didn’t even make a Kei fan celebrate. Rafa was halfa Rafa in 2015. He was coming off a confidence boost win on clay in Hamburg but imo, Rafa was — hafa Rafa.

      I pick Rafa in 2. Kei may never get back to his 2014 best. Very surprised he beat Isner. And a nice win over Kei should give Rafa another boost of confidence going forward! Which does scare me – but it’s good for tennis.

  4. Zverev lost that match mentally. He could’ve won for sure. He was better player in both the first and third sets for most of the time (until the meltdown in the final stages of the match). Also I’m picking Nole in straights and kei in three.

    • It’s true that Zverev lost that match mentally. It’s true that he played better in the first and third sets, but you have to play until the last point. Zverev went away in that second set and allowed Rafa to get back in the match. The top players will make you pay if you don’t stay in the game.

      It’s not always the one who plays better who ends up winning the match. Zverev learned a lesson. He lost his focus and did not close out the match. Rafa capitalized on his meltdown and that’s the way it goes.

      • NNY!!!!!!!!!!!! Give e strength!!!!!!!!!! That’s why I took a break from tennis forums for a few weeks because even when Rafa wins, you have to pour cold water on it.

        When Rafa bageled him it’s because Zverev went away in the 2nd set. How was Zverev better in the 1st and 3rd sets? OK, Zverev was better in the first 3 games because Rafa couldn’t read his serve but Rafa did have 2 set points. In the 3rd set, Rafa was broken twice and Zverev was broken 3 times although he had a match point but after that Rafa won 15 out of the last 16 points.

        Vamos Rafa!
        Inspite of continually being put down.

        • nadline,

          Give it a rest already. You are becoming boring beyond belief! Also, quit blaming me for you leaving this forum. If you can’t take people having their own opinions, that’s your problem. Here’s a news flash – the world does not revolve around you! If you can’t handle different opinions or just want to be around people who say whatever you want to hear, then a tennis site is probably not the best place for you.

          You always make the same absurd accusations at me, no matter what I say. If I don’t say that Rafa played a brilliant match and was amazing, God-like and dominating from start to finish, then you whine and have another hissy fit.

          I will continue to say what I think and Ann if your personal attacks and baiting, will not stop me. I have a right to come here and express my opinions and you do not get to censor what I say!

          • Sorry for autocorrect on my iPhone garbling a sentence in my previous post, but I believe that my point has still been made. I am not about to edit or sugarcoat my thoughts on rafa’s matches because of someone else’s excessive sensibilities.

            I repeat what I said previously – enjoy Rafa’s win and stop carping about how I think it happened! He won! Enough said!

            I guess when I stood up to defend Rafa against the shameless attacks on him by that French woman, those comments from me were conveniently ignored because someone wishes to see only what they choose to selectively see.

          • Nativenewyorker (AT 5:51 PM),
            —when I stood up to defend Rafa against the shameless attacks on him by that French woman…—
            ===
            .
            Rafa will take legal actions against ‘that French woman’.
            CNN, March 15, 2016: ¤¤ “I am going to sue her…,” Nadal said at the Indian Wells tournament.
            Benito Pérez-Barbadillo, Rafa’s PR manager told CNN: “Rafa was very clear … he will definitely take legal actions. His lawyers are studying how to proceed.”¤¤

      • the kid played an incredible match. but as all kids do against the big names he lost it mentally at the crucial points. nadal was very lucky against verdasco in the second set tie and should have lost that at least the set. against zverev 5 years ago he would have blown this kid off the court. Nadals game is so mentally reliant that CONVINCING his opponents for years they had already lost before stepping on the court was enough. Nadal will NEVER win another grand slam for the rest of his career, maybe not even be a finalist.

        • PAUL M (AT 4:20 PM),
          Rafa blew ‘this kid off the court’ in the 2nd set!

          Rafa at his post-match press conference: “I think I played a great second set. But at the beginning, sometimes when win a set that easy it’s dangerous for the beginning of the next one, no? The beginning of the third he played aggressive, and I think I stopped a little bit the rhythm, so I was in trouble.”

        • Agree with Benny – but I wouldn’t limit it to FO. Rafa’s shown he’s good enough at any GS. He’s a contender until he hangs up the racquet, imo. 30 is the new 20. Mileage shmileage.

        • PAUL M (AT 4:20 PM),

          “Nadal will NEVER win another grand slam for the rest of his career, maybe not even be a finalist”

          hahaha…did not know we had a poster with scrying abilities here…where do you keep your cristal ball?

  5. I have no doubt that Rafa will have a challenge against Nishi. But I am going with Rafa to win in 3 sets. I think he’s been more focused and has handled the crucial moments of his previous matches well. He could well have lost to Zverev if he didn’t forget to play the last few games. But I think it was a good victory for Rafa.

    Rafa will have to play better against Nishi. He needs to serve well and not give away breaks of serve. Rafa will need his forehand to be firing consistently. He has to be aggressive and not let Nishi take time away from him. A tall order, but I am going with Rafa.

    I don’t think there is any doubt that Novak will handle Tsonga with ease.

    • Not with ease, imo, Nny. Well, I hope so – but Nole makes me nervous. I’ll pick 3 sets and keep my fingers crossed. Nole needs a strong win. But I’m not convinced he defends his title in IW or Miami. It’s a lot.

      • rc,

        Fair enough. I know it’s best not to take anything for granted. Some of it depends on Tsonga. But I just think he doesn’t have the mental strength and variety to go up against Novak. But it is best if 3, so you never know.

  6. if Rafa repeats his performances against his previous opponents I will be able to relax at last and enjoy his matches once again. Until that happens I’ll need a stiff drink for this encounter 🙂

    i’m going to have faith in him beating Nishi in a grinding 3 sets with the inevitable TBs.

    A bit undecided about Tsonga. He played a good match against a depleted Thiem but he will be punished if he presses too hard and plays his habitual ‘bull in a china shop’ game. OTH Djokovic has been guilty of being lackadaisical in earlier rounds so Jo-Wil might snatch a set from him.
    Djokovic in 3

    • Rafa has said that he does not like to play Isner, for obvious reasons.

      The h2h doesn’t mean that those victories were easy.

  7. I dont believe Djokovic’s patchy performance is due to underestimating his opponents: it’s more a case of putting too much faith in his ability to raise his own level when it matters – which of course he usually does in the nick of time. He would be well advised not to sail too close to the wind if he is to retain his air of invincibility.

  8. I’m happy for Rafa for winning though. That was tough to see for Zverev nonetheless. Still at this point I want Rafa to win the title. Would be awesome.

  9. Rafa showed more brains and more guts than his opponents in all three matches he played so far and he well deserved to win all of them…that should not be taken away from him…

    I like courageous Rafa…I like when Rafa gets angry as he tends to play freely and fearless, like after that warning he received from the umpire…

    I always say Rafa needs to be reminded who he is…

    Vamos Rafa!

  10. As far as I’m concerned, Rafa beat Zverev and bageled him into the bargain. Rafa lost many matches last year that he was on the verge of winning; that’s tennis.

    • Yeah that’s tennis. It’s tough. So happy Rafa is in the QF here. My pick was Nishikori in three but I’m starting to think Rafa may win. I’m definitely rooting for him to win that’s for sure. Rooting for him to take the title in fact.

      • Nobody is taking anything away from Rafa! Honestly, some people are so thin skinned that it isn’t even funny!

        It’s good to see Rafa getting the win no matter what the cirumstances. As I said a few times, players have to stay in the game until the end. Zverev did not go that even as he was serving for the match. Rafa was able to take advantage and get the win.

        I am waiting now to see if anyone is actually going to find something to pick apart or take offense.

        Just enjoy Rafa winning.

  11. RT Stroppa Del: ¤¤ “A teenager beating Nadal” should have been the headline today, says our dear friend, Robbie Koenig. ¤¤

    Bad day at the office for some. ?

  12. I don’t really care how Robbie feels one way or the other. It sounds like he thought that Zverev would win.

    It doesn’t take away from my happiness over Rafa getting the win.

  13. Koenig can’r wait to stick the knife in at every possible opportunity. He is panicking Rafa might prove his gloom and doom predictions were premature and he will get egg on his face.

    He should stick to analysing the tennis and stop playing the Delphic Oracle.

      • ha, ha. I know the habituees here know he sets my teeth on edge. Thought I’d spare you all another of my tirades. It wouldn’t be so bad if he and Knowitall stuck to talking about the tennis 🙁

        • Interestingly Jason plucked up the courage to disagree several times with RK’s assessment of Zev Minor’s imminent rise to the highest echelons of the ATP circuit.

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