Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will continue their Indian Wells campaigns on Friday. They are set for respective quarterfinal contests against Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Kei Nishikori

Nadal and Nishikori will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 7-1 in favor of Nadal, but the last two meetings have not gone particularly well for the Spaniard after once standing at a perfect 6-0 against Nishikori. At the 2014 Madrid Masters, Japan’s top player led by a set and a break before retiring with a back injury in the third. Nishikori finally beat Nadal for the first time at last summer’s Montreal Masters via a 6-2, 6-4 decision.

Both players saved match point in the Indian Wells fourth round to book their spots in the quarterfinals. After battling past Gilles Muller in three sets and Fernando Verdasco in straights, Nadal outlasted Alexander Zverev 6-7(8), 6-0, 7-5 on Thursday. Nishikori took care of Mikhail Kukushkin and Steve Johnson in two sets before overcoming John Isner 1-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(5) despite failing to generate a single break chance. There is no reason to take Nadal’s 7-1 lifetime record against Nishikori into account for this one, as this is not the Nadal of yesteryear and Nishikori really should have won each of their last two showdowns. The No. 5 seed will likely be allowed to play offensive tennis just about from start to finish in this one and that should give him an edge.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Djokovic has shown recent signs of vulnerability, but he appears to be back in total control heading into the Indian Wells quarters. The world No. 1 retired from a Dubai quarterfinal against Feliciano Lopez because of an eye infection, needed five sets to get past Mikhail Kukushkin in a Davis Cup tie between Serbia and Kazakhstan, and lost a set in the desert to Bjorn Fratangelo. Since then, however, Djokovic has picked up the pace. He took the last two sets against Fratangelo 6-1 and 6-2, beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 7-5, 7-5 in the last 32, and had no trouble in a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Lopez on Wednesday.
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Next up for the top seed on Friday is a 21st career clash against Tsonga. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 14-6, including 12-1 in the last 13 encounters. They most recently faced each other last fall in the Shanghai title match, with Djokovic coasting 6-2, 6-4. Tsonga is through to the Indian Wells quarters for just the second time in his career thanks to straight-set beatdowns of Vincent Millot, Sam Querrey, and Dominic Thiem. The ninth-ranked Frenchman has never advanced to the semis of this tournament. Tsonga has been known to go on incredible hot streaks, but this one can likely be chalked up to lackluster competition and a worn-out Thiem. Going up against Djokovic will obviously be a much different proposition–and one that is likely to end poorly for Tsonga yet again.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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27 Comments on Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Tsonga

  1. Nishi threw his racket in frustration.

    Rafa holds!

    3-0

    Dare I say it out loud? Rafa needs to hold his serve to win this match!

    Come on Rafa! You’ve got him right where you want him!

  2. Superb volley from Kei to seal the game but Rafa really should have won this game… anyway, 4-2…don’t lose focus

  3. Nishikori raised his level considerably but it was a poor game by Rafa. His shots had no depth on them….he got nervous perhaps …the excitement of beating a top 10 player perhaps?

    I hope he can break here and put the lid back…

  4. Rafa had chances in nishi’s last two service games. This should be over.

    But Nishi really went for it on rafa’s serve. Very aggressive.

    This is when I start to get nervous. Nishi is not about to go quietly.

    • HIGH TEN NNY!!!

      It was tense at the end and rafa was feeling the nerves. He started dropping the ball short and had tension in his arm and we saw him over-hitting too.

      what matters most is how he responded!! He did NOT melt , sensed what needs to be done and regrouped. Came up with some good shots to finish! The forehand DTL on match point was sweet.

      The fighter in Rafa is well and truly animated at the moment and the genius in him is also out of hibernation now…

      • vamosrafa.

        High Ten right back at you!

        Oh how good it is to see that DTL forehand again! Rafa hung tough and got it done!

        I have missed seeing Rafa play this way. The crowd was behind him all the way. Wonderful to see!

        To beat Nishi in straight sets is a great accomplishment! Rafa just took Nishi out of his game plan. He made him uncomfortable and Nishi smashed his racket a few times. He did not know what to do! But he tried to get back on track and did break Rafa back.

        That was the key moment in the match. Would the nerves get to Rafa? Would he fold? But he didn’t!

        I know the Novak will be waiting, but for now I just want to enjoy this!

    • FINALLY a top 10 win!! world no.6 beatean! BIG WIN! Looks like he is at least back to where he left in WTF 2015… I would say he is slightly better now…

      If he goes on to face Novak next, I don’t think he is quite yet prepared to do that but he is making real progress…Would be totally satisfied if he can just make that match competitive and avoid 6-2 6-3 sets which has been the norm in their last few meetings

      • vr, I agree. I think nerves will play a part as far as Rafa is concerned when playing Novak but I think he’s got the game to beat Novak so a competitive match will not be asking too much.

        I am rooting for Tsonga; not because I think he is going to be easy for Rafa or that I don’t want Rafa to meet Nole, I’m just sick of Novak winning. In my books, only Rafa is allowed to be a serial winner.

        • I would be really pleased if Tsonga can somehow win here!BUT highly, highly unlikely.

          Rafa will get nervous against Djokovic but I think it is also true that rafa’s level is not right there…and he has not shown a high enough level consistently either…just in a few patches… Djokovic is too damn consistent…he is like slow poison for rafa in baseline rallies these days…watching them live in the O2 gave me an even better idea.

          The biggest concern to me remains the serve-return dynamic .Djokovic has big advantage there

  5. If Djokovic wins IW, he becomes the first man to win it 5 times…if Rafa wins, each of Fed , Djokovic and Rafa will have 4 each! I hope we can somehow have the latter scenario materialize…lol

  6. Quite a few people were bold enough to vote for Rafa in straight sets. I thought I was brave to predict in 3 🙂

    Thank you Ricky for anti-jinxing Rafa ;-0

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