French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will battle an inspired Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday, with a spot in the French Open final the reward for the winner.

Until his quarterfinal match on Wednesday against Pablo Carreno Busta, top seed Novak Djokovic looked like he might just make it through the 2020 season without losing…at least not at the hands of another player. He had been fierce throughout the fortnight in Paris and he obviously went into it as the prohibitive favorite over the Spaniard.

But then a neck injury in the warmup left the Serb in trouble in the opening set, and he was seen by the trainer. Carreno Busta snagged the first set but ended up losing in four.

After the match, Djokovic said, “Well, I definitely didn’t feel great coming into the court today…. Few things happened in the warmup. I had to deal with those physical issues coming onto the court.”

The extent of the injury and whether it will affect his semifinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas remains to be seen. But injury or not, Tsitsipas is no joke of an opponent. The Greek, into his first French Open semifinal, has played himself into impressive form in Paris.

Tsitsipas came into Paris directly off a run to the final in Hamburg, where he was just edged out by Andrey Rublev. The world No. 6 had a tough opener against Jaume Munar, but he has been nearly flawless since, downing each opponent–including Rublev and No. 18 seed Grigor Dimitrov–in straight sets.

Djokovic and Tsitsipas are not strangers. This will be their sixth meeting in just over two years. Djokovic has a 3-2 winning record, a slim margin that gives no hint that Tsitsipas is particularly intimidated by the world No. 1.

If Djokovic is at all hampered by the neck/shoulder injury he sustained on Wednesday, we may well see an upset in the top half of the draw. In fact, even if Djokovic is 100 percent Tsitsipas is capable of the upset. Still, with the way Djokovic has played all year, it’s hard to pick against him.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 5

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 5

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35 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Tsitsi in five is my gut feeling , its as if Djoko is now the bad boy and karma will come back to bite him
    But I still cant pick against Djoko if he’s fit , him in five.

  2. Tsitsipas was very impressive against Rublev and he would’ve gained a lot of confidence from that straight sets victory.

    This match will be close.

  3. Tsitsipas in four. He has the tools to beat this Djoko (whom I think is not at his best). Tsitsipas is playing like he’s at WTF 2019, I think only a Rafa in the final can stop him. Of course if Djoko suddenly comes alive and plays like he’s in 2015/2016 then it’ll be a different story.

  4. Novak in 4 sets. Tsitsipas backhand and weaker return of serve will be exploited by Djokovic. Stefanos is a much more streaky player who won’t frustrate Djokovic like the steady PCB and Agut.

    Maybe Tsitsipas could pull it off on a faster court or if Djokovic is injured. Otherwise Djokovic defends aggressively better than any other player in the history of the game.

    The only person who could stop Novak is maybe Nadal. But in these conditions even Nadal won’t start out as the favorite against Djokovic.

    • It’s windy conditions out there, that’s why Djoko struggled to put away PCB.

      PCB wasn’t playing all that well, going CC all the time, didn’t even move well, and yet Djoko struggled against him. Imagine a Schwarzman playing against this Djoko, he would have won the match, but not PCB.

  5. Djokovic largely relies on his defense and that his opponent will eventually choke and miss. Tsitsipas doesn’t choke and plays with a lot of margin for error so this is a very tough match for Djokovic on Tsitsipas’s favorite surface.

    • “Tsitsipas doesn’t choke” did you watch the USO? or the Hamburg final? he definitely chokes. and Djokovic will come in hyper-focused. Djokovic in 3 or 4.

    • It’s Tsitsipas’s best surface – reached Barcelona and Madrid finals. His game is suitable for all surfaces but clay is great for his game, because he plays a thinking game.

      In quicker surfaces, he may lose to players who are very aggressive, like Shapo for example. Tsitsipas may be an attacking player but he’s not that aggressive unlike Shapo, or those big servers plus hard hitters (Rublev comes to mind).

        • Fed may be his idol, but Tsitsipas doesn’t play exactly like Fed. His stroke production may be similar but his mindset is different.

          He plays a bit further from the baseline, doesn’t play first strike tennis often, prefers to work his way into the point, hence his game suits the clay surface. However he can serve well so he’s still good on quicker surfaces. To me, he’s a hybrid of Fed and Rafa, not a counterpuncher but also not too aggressive an attacking player.

          Imo, Shapo is the one in the mould of Fed, prefers first strike tennis, very aggressive but he has to learn not to go for broke all the time, Youzhny is helping him in that area.

  6. It would be interesting to see if Djokovic turns up with the plaster on his neck today as PCB actually accused him of gamesmanship after the match. If Djoker is not 100% fit then I’d say 100% Tsitsipas; if not, I’m not sure who will prevail but Tsitsipas is not starstruck like many young players and believes he can beat them all so he won’t be bothered about who is on the other side of the net. Tsits wouldn’t want to miss his chance of making a GS final as he may not have another opportunity waiting round the corner so he’ll give it his all.

  7. Actually Tsitsipas favourite surface is clay and he has grown up as player on this surface. Good show of his ability on clay was last year when he beat Rafa on Madrid masters SF (and then lost to Djokovic as was exhausted from Rafa). This time he is fresher than Djokovic and fitness can be a factor only for Djokovic.. Stefanos in 4.

  8. Btw what’s this MTO thing that PCB was complaining about?

    PCB himself wasn’t playing well so whether Djoko was injured or not it didn’t make any difference imo. PCB was just one dimensional, no DTL shots, so predictable that a Djoko not playing well could still beat him by just staying in the point long enough for PCB to make an error.

    A Schwarzman for example, who could attack from both wings and all directions, CC or DTL, would offer more challenges to Djoko and might even win the match.

    • NOVAK ADDRESSES INJURY CONCERNS; PCB ASKED TO WEIGH IN

      In the first set of his eventual quarterfinal win over Pablo Carreno Busta, Novak Djokovic had two visible health questions: his neck, taped ahead of his on-court arrival, and his left arm, which appeared to flare up after play began. He and Carreno Busta spoke about it in their post-match virtual press conferences.

      Djokovic: “[A] few things happened in the warmup. I had to deal with those physical issues coming onto the court. As the match went on, I felt better, didn’t feel as much pain. I don’t want to take away anything from his good performance. Especially for set and a half he was the better player, dictating the play. I was very neutral.”

      “I had some neck issues and some shoulder issues. I’ll just say that. I mean, I don’t want to get really too much into it. Obviously I’m still in the tournament, so I don’t want to reveal too much. I’m feeling okay. I think, as I said, as the match progressed, I warmed up by body, and the pain kind of faded away. It allowed me to play better and better and feel better.”

      Carreno Busta: “Probably the last years he’s always doing this when he has problems on court. I don’t know, maybe it’s the pressure or something that he needs to do it. But, I mean, he continues playing normal, no? I don’t know if he’s [in] pain really or [is] mental. Ask him.”

      “At the beginning of the match I think that I play good. I take advantage of the opportunities returning. Then in the beginning of the second set, I have it again but didn’t take advantage. That was when he start[ed] to play better.”

      https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2020/10/roland-garros-notebook-passport-day-11-djokovic-pcb-kenin-collins-tsitsipas-rublev-kvitova-siegemund/91281/

    • I agree that PCB didn’t play well because he had many chances to go up 2 sets to love but failed to take them. I was, however, impressed with the way he played against Altmaier in the QF so I honestly believed he could beat Djokovic. PCB just seemed to go into his shell, defending against Djokovic, which is manna from heaven for Djokovic, but against Altmaier he was more proactive.

      Altmaier is another up and coming young player to watch.

  9. Im surprised by Ricky’s bold prediction here! However, I was quite impressed with Tsisti;s performance against Rublev! He was aggressive and sharp, going for the angles, overflowing with confidence. He does stand a chancre for sure. But the thing with Novak is u can’t bet against him esp at a GS! Theim dud beat him last year, not many expected it. So, will the final elude him again in 2020?!!

    Anyway, just hoping for a good match!

    • Its already over i’m afraid! If you think Rafa was nervous, just watch Tsisipas.

      By the way, good to c Novak wearing no tape today!

  10. And ppl complain y r the top guys winning all the slams? This is y!!

    Stephanos played so so so much better against Rublev! At least with Diego its probably wear and tear, but what is Tsistipas’ excuse? Steups!!!

    • Tsitsipas is playing really well out there.. djoko like rafa is doing just enough to defend the barrage till the opponents level goes down

  11. It could’ve been 4-4 should Tsitsipas break serve in Djoko’s first service game, Tsitsipas takes a set to warm up, doesn’t do himself any favour.

  12. Tsitsipas could only beat Djoko when Djoko is subpar, not when he’s game on at 100%. Tsitsipas’s court craft is not good enough.

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