French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

It may be the “other” semifinal on Friday, but no one should be surprised if Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem turns out to be the better of the two matches–in terms of both quality and competitiveness.

Neither one of their first two French Open matches lived up to the hype, but it was not only Djokovic who engineered a beatdown. After the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semifinals, Thiem returned the favor one year later by dominating 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarters.

Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-2–including 3-2 on clay. They just faced each other last month in Madrid, where the world No. 1 prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(4) on his eventual way to the title. Thiem’s other victory came at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters via a 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 decision.

Although Thiem looked vulnerable earlier this fortnight, he is now looking like a future (and maybe even present, come Sunday afternoon) champion at Roland Garros that many in the tennis world tip him to become. After scraping past Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, and Pablo Cuevas all in four tough sets, the fourth-ranked Austrian destroyed both Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov without losing more than four games in any set.

“I think every match [I’ve gotten] better and better,” Thiem assessed. “(The) first two opponents were very tough because they also didn’t give (me) any rhythm and they didn’t have anything to lose. So these were two very tough matches. From the third round on, it got a lot better.”

Djokovic is perfect through five rounds, having made routine work of Hubert Hurkacz, Henri Laaksonen, Salvatore Caruso, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev. The top seed and 2016 French Open winner is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court matches, with a loss only to Rafael Nadal in the Rome final.

Thus the stage is set for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which also includes Nadal vs. Roger Federer. Thiem may be the outsider among the four in terms of major title-winning experience, but it’s obvious from both past French Open success and current form that he is the only other player who truly belongs on semifinal Friday.

“Dominic is deservedly where he is–one of the top four guys, especially on clay,” Djokovic explained. “That’s where he’s playing his best tennis. He’s got that tremendous power in his game, especially with forehand and serve. I think (his) backhand also has improved a lot in the last couple of years.

“(It) seems like his relationship with (new coach Nicolas) Massu has helped him a lot…also mentally, I think, in big matches; seems like it has been working really well. If he continues playing this way, not just on clay but in general, I think we will probably be seeing him more often on different surfaces in the final stages of the tournament.”

Will we see Thiem in the final? We did last year, and he has been no less impressive on the slow stuff in 2019. His recent exploits are highlighted by a title in Barcelona, where he defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis.

Beating Djokovic at Roland Garros may be even more difficult, but it is a feat Thiem has already accomplished once. And as well as the 15-time slam winner is playing right now, he still does not appear to be at his Australian Open best.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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38 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

    • Was rated “playable” for Fedal but the prediction was for worsening weather – I’d guess it hit the tipping point or maybe there’s lightning now – they do NOT play in lightning or if rain is too heavy.

  1. We could be in for a Titanic match here, potentially over 3 days. Novak being down a set means nothing. I hope Thiem wins, but I know better than to get my hopes up after Novak loses the first set at a major…

    • Whoops, I meant potentially over multiple days- not over 3 days. That would be insane. One thing is for sure- if we want the highest quality Final possible, this match MUST finish today. I don’t blame Rafans for wanting his opponent to have no full days of rest since Wednesday. But for those of us that have no dog in the fight, I want both guys to get a day of rest before the Final!

  2. Thiem doesn’t know how to play in the wind. What’s with that stupid CC BH slice, he’s always doing that and slicing the ball out of the court! I mean can’t he move his legs to then hit a FH CC instead? Why so stingy with the FH?

    As, hitting the FH and then breaks Djoko’s serve for a 3-1 lead third set!

  3. How can you not like thiem. some great shots to get the break.
    TC commentators are unbearable to say the least.

  4. Play has been suspended for the day. They will have to finish tomorrow. That means playing three days in a row.

    • 4 days in a row as Sunday is final..but match was short today..barely 1.5 hrs ..this suspension will help Novak ..he will regroup big time n calm down..I hope massu really pumps up Thiem too..

      Ricky is being spot on ..he said Rafa will beat fed in 3 ..most had 4..he said second match won’t get completed .have you become Nostradamus Ricky .I hope your Thiem in 5 comes true

      • They play for four days in a row but it’s like one plus to two hours per day, just like they’re playing in a Masters, until maybe the final.

        Both Thiem and Djoko finished off their QF opponents in straight sets; they played for one plus hours today. They’ll play another two and a half sets tomorrow maximum; unless the sets go the distance into TBs or in case of a fifth set, well past 6-6, I think they may not need to spend too much time on court tomorrow.

        I don’t know whether they’ll change the Men’s final to Monday after all that. Wimbledon didn’t seem to care to do that last year, I wonder RG will do the same.

      • Yes, it wont be easy for either. Theim for sure can win, he looked the better player today but Djoker struggled. Djoker has been struggling though, his straight set victories kind of hide that. But then again Djoker can scale up his game at important moments.

        Overall its a tight call. Theim plays in sunny conditions, like any clay court specialist, he likes baked court where his shots can fly.Theim is a great courter, make no mistake about it. He has beaten Djoker in straight sets 2 years back when Djoker was the defending champion. Has had consistent results last two French Open, so it won’t be a surprise if he wins this one.

        From Rafa’s point of view, it won’t be such a bad thing if Djoker comes through. Theim is a sort of unknown, he can trouble anyone if he starts finding his range.

  5. Tomorrow may still be gusty, so not much difference in playing conditions. It may help Djoko but it may also help Thiem, who knows.

    I hope Thiem wins this in four sets, so that he’s not too disadvantaged in the final. I think Thiem will come out and hit as hard as he can, but please, no more sliced BH CC; instead please hit the FHCC so that he can have better control of the ball!

      • Then he’s stupid for not changing it if it’s not working! He did finally hit some hard FH and finally broke Djoko’s serve.

        To me Thiem needs to hit both his FH and BH CC and DTL, not slicing all the time, in windy conditions. He’s so predictable slicing CC all the time, and he didn’t have good control of it maybe because of the wind.

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