French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

It may be the “other” semifinal on Friday, but no one should be surprised if Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem turns out to be the better of the two matches–in terms of both quality and competitiveness.

Neither one of their first two French Open matches lived up to the hype, but it was not only Djokovic who engineered a beatdown. After the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semifinals, Thiem returned the favor one year later by dominating 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarters.

Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-2–including 3-2 on clay. They just faced each other last month in Madrid, where the world No. 1 prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(4) on his eventual way to the title. Thiem’s other victory came at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters via a 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 decision.

Although Thiem looked vulnerable earlier this fortnight, he is now looking like a future (and maybe even present, come Sunday afternoon) champion at Roland Garros that many in the tennis world tip him to become. After scraping past Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, and Pablo Cuevas all in four tough sets, the fourth-ranked Austrian destroyed both Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov without losing more than four games in any set.

“I think every match [I’ve gotten] better and better,” Thiem assessed. “(The) first two opponents were very tough because they also didn’t give (me) any rhythm and they didn’t have anything to lose. So these were two very tough matches. From the third round on, it got a lot better.”

Djokovic is perfect through five rounds, having made routine work of Hubert Hurkacz, Henri Laaksonen, Salvatore Caruso, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev. The top seed and 2016 French Open winner is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court matches, with a loss only to Rafael Nadal in the Rome final.

Thus the stage is set for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which also includes Nadal vs. Roger Federer. Thiem may be the outsider among the four in terms of major title-winning experience, but it’s obvious from both past French Open success and current form that he is the only other player who truly belongs on semifinal Friday.

“Dominic is deservedly where he is–one of the top four guys, especially on clay,” Djokovic explained. “That’s where he’s playing his best tennis. He’s got that tremendous power in his game, especially with forehand and serve. I think (his) backhand also has improved a lot in the last couple of years.

“(It) seems like his relationship with (new coach Nicolas) Massu has helped him a lot…also mentally, I think, in big matches; seems like it has been working really well. If he continues playing this way, not just on clay but in general, I think we will probably be seeing him more often on different surfaces in the final stages of the tournament.”

Will we see Thiem in the final? We did last year, and he has been no less impressive on the slow stuff in 2019. His recent exploits are highlighted by a title in Barcelona, where he defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis.

Beating Djokovic at Roland Garros may be even more difficult, but it is a feat Thiem has already accomplished once. And as well as the 15-time slam winner is playing right now, he still does not appear to be at his Australian Open best.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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42 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

  1. Luckystar JUNE 7, 2019 AT 5:17 AM
    “Massu says he wants to make and see Thiem become no.1 player, well, after the big three have past their slam winning days, perhaps that may come true.”

    Which coach doesn’t want to see their player become #1?

      • Yes, but if you are coaching a player in the top 10 any coach would aspire to taking them to #1 but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will all be good enough to achieve it.

  2. Speaking of the weather conditions, it is not ideal for Rafa as sunny conditions work best for him. The heavier conditions will also give him some benefits like more time on the return and defend in baseline rallies.

    Rafa WILL go bigger on his second serves and not allow Roger to take charge on the return like he did during 2017. Fed will do his best to do so and he’ll also try using a penetrative backhand CC.

    All these years, Rafa’s go-to ‘reset’ shot against Roger has a to hit a high forehand to Roger’s backhand as the Swiss was never quite able to punish those balls DTL like others like Djokovic or Murray (and now Thiem) can. In 2017 ,Roger was able to do that better so Rafa has to get rid of that ‘bad habit’ against Roger. I can’t blame him because that pattern was engraved in his tennis brain when taking to the court against Roger.

    Rafa was able to overcome 7 straight losses to Novak and turn the tables against him. You can beat him over a period but in the long-term he is almost always able to find the answers. I think he’ll be wary of the threat Roger’s game poses and I hope he won’t be caught off guard at all. He’ll serve better and employ more variation and make it tougher for Roger to implement his game and the surface of course helps Rafa.

    Rafa’s backhand been on fire and that will really help. If he keeps the errors a bit more in control on the forehand side, he will be in a commanding position more often than not.

    Lastly, even though I always say Fed’s faith in his attacking game is amazing and his self-belief is very high. I am still unsure how much he actually believes that he can take Rafa down at RG given their history and Roger’s lack of tough match wins on clay over the last few years.

    Long live Fedal and good luck to both these INCREDIBLE champions.

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. I think Djoko is marginally favourite here just because of his mentality. Thiem is an incredible clay court player and he has the game to topple anyone here (except for a red-hot Rafa).

    This match could go the distance and become one of those classics.

      • yep Nole needs military grade protective goggles – wind with clay dust just doesn’t work for him. It’s a mental block too.

        Thiem has this in 3.

          • She’s Ratcliff in disguise! And a filthy Djokofan (just kidding) but she IS Ratcliff, says this name works better for this wackadoodle forum, and so a really nice person/poster even if she is a….:)

            Not surprised Djoko is upset, playing tennis in weather like this is enough to upset anyone. Well, maybe not Theim – takes a hurricane named Serena blowing through his presser to upset HIM!

          • Yes, I’m that filthy Nole fan.

            lol, Ramara.Good one about hurricane Serena blowing through Thiem’s presser!

  4. Nole playing awful, has to accept the conditions and try and strategise. He is going out fast otherwise.
    Thiem did very little to win that set.

  5. Next time, Djokovic will say I don’t want to play because my opponent is playing better than me. What a jerk

    • No that’s not it. Apparently this storm passing through Europe is named “Miguel”
      Sirens are going off the commentators are saying. Probably dereche type of winds which can make tennis near unplayable. But..Nole has to adjust and accept it. Use his humor, tell himself “so what”, deal with it and dive in.

      Similar conditions here in Idaho yesterday. But I get an adrenaline rush in bad weather and seek it out at higher altitudes! Love skiing in it and doing other things in it.

        • Oh, you didn’t know it was me, Amy? Yes it’s me RC, jalep, ect. Word press works better if I use my real name and stick to one email address. So odd these computer mysteries, which seem to want my real information LOL

          • Gosh Elizabeth I would never use my real name online! I haven’t been on site for months so way behind the curve.
            Good to see you!☺☺

          • I wasn’t trying to hide behind my own name. It was out of dire straights that I went to my real name. I couldn’t log in here for a long time.

            Nice to see you still think it’s nice to see me — nice to see you here too xx

      • Tennis is not one of those things I like doing in wind. Kite sailing, wind surfing, downhill skiing, trying to fly 😀 Have always loved a good storm. Well not hurricane force winds or a massive tornado.

        Looks like Thiem might actually like it too.
        I remember the slippery blue clay in Madrid. Federer and Berdych both liked it. Probably because most of the main competition were complaining or refusing to play on it.

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