French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

It may be the “other” semifinal on Friday, but no one should be surprised if Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem turns out to be the better of the two matches–in terms of both quality and competitiveness.

Neither one of their first two French Open matches lived up to the hype, but it was not only Djokovic who engineered a beatdown. After the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semifinals, Thiem returned the favor one year later by dominating 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarters.

Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-2–including 3-2 on clay. They just faced each other last month in Madrid, where the world No. 1 prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(4) on his eventual way to the title. Thiem’s other victory came at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters via a 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 decision.

Although Thiem looked vulnerable earlier this fortnight, he is now looking like a future (and maybe even present, come Sunday afternoon) champion at Roland Garros that many in the tennis world tip him to become. After scraping past Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, and Pablo Cuevas all in four tough sets, the fourth-ranked Austrian destroyed both Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov without losing more than four games in any set.

“I think every match [I’ve gotten] better and better,” Thiem assessed. “(The) first two opponents were very tough because they also didn’t give (me) any rhythm and they didn’t have anything to lose. So these were two very tough matches. From the third round on, it got a lot better.”

Djokovic is perfect through five rounds, having made routine work of Hubert Hurkacz, Henri Laaksonen, Salvatore Caruso, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev. The top seed and 2016 French Open winner is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court matches, with a loss only to Rafael Nadal in the Rome final.

Thus the stage is set for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which also includes Nadal vs. Roger Federer. Thiem may be the outsider among the four in terms of major title-winning experience, but it’s obvious from both past French Open success and current form that he is the only other player who truly belongs on semifinal Friday.

“Dominic is deservedly where he is–one of the top four guys, especially on clay,” Djokovic explained. “That’s where he’s playing his best tennis. He’s got that tremendous power in his game, especially with forehand and serve. I think (his) backhand also has improved a lot in the last couple of years.

“(It) seems like his relationship with (new coach Nicolas) Massu has helped him a lot…also mentally, I think, in big matches; seems like it has been working really well. If he continues playing this way, not just on clay but in general, I think we will probably be seeing him more often on different surfaces in the final stages of the tournament.”

Will we see Thiem in the final? We did last year, and he has been no less impressive on the slow stuff in 2019. His recent exploits are highlighted by a title in Barcelona, where he defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis.

Beating Djokovic at Roland Garros may be even more difficult, but it is a feat Thiem has already accomplished once. And as well as the 15-time slam winner is playing right now, he still does not appear to be at his Australian Open best.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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