It may be the “other” semifinal on Friday, but no one should be surprised if Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem turns out to be the better of the two matches–in terms of both quality and competitiveness.
Neither one of their first two French Open matches lived up to the hype, but it was not only Djokovic who engineered a beatdown. After the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semifinals, Thiem returned the favor one year later by dominating 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarters.
Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-2–including 3-2 on clay. They just faced each other last month in Madrid, where the world No. 1 prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(4) on his eventual way to the title. Thiem’s other victory came at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters via a 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 decision.
Although Thiem looked vulnerable earlier this fortnight, he is now looking like a future (and maybe even present, come Sunday afternoon) champion at Roland Garros that many in the tennis world tip him to become. After scraping past Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, and Pablo Cuevas all in four tough sets, the fourth-ranked Austrian destroyed both Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov without losing more than four games in any set.
“I think every match [I’ve gotten] better and better,” Thiem assessed. “(The) first two opponents were very tough because they also didn’t give (me) any rhythm and they didn’t have anything to lose. So these were two very tough matches. From the third round on, it got a lot better.”
Djokovic is perfect through five rounds, having made routine work of Hubert Hurkacz, Henri Laaksonen, Salvatore Caruso, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev. The top seed and 2016 French Open winner is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court matches, with a loss only to Rafael Nadal in the Rome final.
Thus the stage is set for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which also includes Nadal vs. Roger Federer. Thiem may be the outsider among the four in terms of major title-winning experience, but it’s obvious from both past French Open success and current form that he is the only other player who truly belongs on semifinal Friday.
“Dominic is deservedly where he is–one of the top four guys, especially on clay,” Djokovic explained. “That’s where he’s playing his best tennis. He’s got that tremendous power in his game, especially with forehand and serve. I think (his) backhand also has improved a lot in the last couple of years.
“(It) seems like his relationship with (new coach Nicolas) Massu has helped him a lot…also mentally, I think, in big matches; seems like it has been working really well. If he continues playing this way, not just on clay but in general, I think we will probably be seeing him more often on different surfaces in the final stages of the tournament.”
Will we see Thiem in the final? We did last year, and he has been no less impressive on the slow stuff in 2019. His recent exploits are highlighted by a title in Barcelona, where he defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis.
Beating Djokovic at Roland Garros may be even more difficult, but it is a feat Thiem has already accomplished once. And as well as the 15-time slam winner is playing right now, he still does not appear to be at his Australian Open best.
Pick: Thiem in 5
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WYG?
Ricky, you give me comfort! Hope your picks are right this time!
I’m way too nervous to think logically about the semis and final so no predictions from me.
Vamos Rafa!!
Djokovic in 4..minimum 3.5 hr match
Nole in 5.
Djoko is 15 times slam winner.
True, that Djoko doesn’t look impressive so far despite winning all his matches in straight sets. Sasha could’ve won the first set and then things might get more interesting; he didn’t so Djoko wasn’t really being tested. To me Struff should also test Djoko in their R4 match, too bad, Struff was really tired after his four hour five sets match against Coric in the previous round.
It’s now up to Thiem to go out there to fight it out with Djoko; unless Djoko raises his level significantly, I doubt he will beat Thiem playing at the level he played against Sasha.
I have just read about 10 weather forecasts! Honestly i think I am turning into sanju fretting away with worry. See what you have done to me sanju!
We cannot do anything Amy. Que Sera Sera..if fed does beat Rafa.. maybe tennis god’s wanted it .in few weeks neither you or me will bother about it and life will go on as normal..let Rafa worry..he is making the millions and controls proceedings on court
So what do they say..do we get good dry weather for 3 hrs from 1 to 4..
No! Only dry weather forecast is from around 6 onwards. The best in the afternoon is sun and showers, worst is constant light rain…
Ricky Nole has 15 GS’s. People forget that last year Nole wasn’t near his best at the FO. But this year Nole beat Thiem in Madrid and made the final in Rome – no shame in losing to Rafa.
To my eye, Novak is playing better tennis. His win over Sascha was just as I expected. Thiem will be a challenge – his serve can be insane – and his groundstrokes too. Very Wawa-like, imo. The problem is sustaining and executing that high level. If he can do it, the match could be over in 3 sets but I don’t think he can.
If Nole can find a way to win the first set, I think he’ll win in 3 or 4. Or losing the first set plus rain delays and interruptions – Nole may have to fight it out in 5 sets.
Correct yourself, Ricky. Nole has 15 Slams. Novak plays exactly how is enough. He routines to the 1/2. I think we will see Nole v 2.0 in the semis and final. He will win RG. Novak in 4 sets, with 3 to be tough. Match will last about 3 and a half hours. If he doesnt finish at Friday, because of weather, than the final should be on Monday. Rafa will destroy Fed. Novak will beat Rafa in 5 sets in the final.
Let us talk about final once semis are played..please..enough time for that 🙂 let Rafa handle fed tomorrow first..
Djokovic in 4
There’s no shame in having a love affair with Theim.
To my mind, only one player has ever beaten top-level Novak from the baseline in the past few years, and that is Wawrinka in 2015. Djokovic hasn’t been at his best yet, but I think he will bring it tomrorrow. To win, Thiem has to be willing to come forward when he has built an advantage in the point. He has the ability, but he has to commit to the strategy. I don’t think he will, and Djokovic will grind him down from the baseline: Thiem will hit a lot of winners but more errors. Novak in 4 sets and we will see a Novak-Fed final.
Does Djokovic need to be at his Australian Open best to beat Theim?
Djokovic was in the midst of the worst slump of his career, losing to Querrey at Wimbledon 2016, Wawrinka at the 2016 US Open, Istomin at the 2017 Austraian Open, Theim at 2017 RG, Berdych at 2017 Wimbledon and he didnt play the 2017 US Open.
That bad spell continued until RG in 2018, losing to Chung at the Australian Opan and Marco Checchinato at RG. Since then he has won Wimbledon, the US Open and The Australian Open.
Sorry, the point of that post is I’m not sure Djokovic is a similar player to what he was 2 years ago when he lost to Theim.
True that Novak hasn’t been playing his best but he really didn’t need to. By watching Sasha play today my impression is that youngsters are just not committed and not passionate enough to beat the big three! Sasha played with ‘I don’t care’ attitude and I was really disappointed with his appearance…I come to think has it been Rafa on the other side of the net he would fight more…
I also think Thiem has a chance tomorrow if he is consistent and if he doesn’t get drawn into Nole’s long rallies. But to be able to beat Nole in the semis he will have to be perfect and Nole will have to be at the same level as today! But Novak will most likely raise his level as he always does…hope the match lives up to the hype!
Rafa and Fed? Hmm…
Vamos Champ!
djokovic in 4.
Lol
Nole in 4 I hope
Djoker in five, what a matchup
Theim in 5
My head obviously says Nole, with a bullet. But heart is saying Thiem. I these scenarios, I tend to go with my head, and my head finds it hard to pick against Novak at a major when he’s won the last 3. Literally the one exception where I could talk myself into picking against Novak right now is against Rafa at this very tournament. But neither of them are in the Final yet, so no need to even think about that right now. There is absolutely no question that Thiem CAN beat Novak tomorrow (or Saturday). I just have more faith in Novak right now. Time and time again, he has shown that we cannot judge him off of previous rounds at a major. He could easily up his level 10-fold and embarrass Theim off the court. Conversely, he could lose to Thiem, albeit not as easily.
I’m going to guess Novak in 5. I’d love to see Thiem really break through at RG. In order to do that he’s going to have to beat at least one of Novak and Rafa when they are not slumping. We know now that Novak was slumping in 2017 when Thiem beat him here. That doesn’t mean, however, that Thiem shouldn’t draw confidence from that previous victory. Even if Novak wasn’t Novak as we’ve come to know him at that time, he still unquestionably felt the wrath of Thiem that day. He knows who he’s going up against. I’d love to pick with my heart right now, but I just can’t do it.
As I said before I feel like this one has potential to be an epic battle, maybe one that assists the other side of the draw (Nadal imo) a bit. The question mark is mainly Thiem as you know Novak will bring a high level at this point. He may not have looked his very best so far, but it has been similar to his AO run in that regard. He has another gear which he brought in the AO final, and he can probably bring something similar here, albeit not quite as much on clay.
Thiem has stepped it up himself in his last two matches so I’ll be disappointed if he can’t get at least one set here and make the others tight. I don’t think he fears Novak on this surface, but the experience factor may still come into it. As Wawrinka has shown though, it is possible to hit through Novak on clay despite his amazing defence. I think Thiem can do that, and maybe get the better of Djokovic if he can make it an endurance battle and take it all the way.
Thiem in 5.
Well, if Djoko were to bring his best for the SF, I’m afraid he would’ve nothing left for the final should he get there.
AO is AO, he’s not doing poorly in the early rounds there either, and in the final he came out all guns blazing. Don’t forget, he faced a Rafa who’s not yet match tough, ie, Rafa played only seven matches, didn’t even have a proper warm up event before that.
Thiem by now is very match fit and match ready; TBH, I fear Rafa vs Thiem in the final this time, because 1) Thiem really improves a lot over last year, 2) Rafa isn’t as formidable as his 2018 self (and I’m not even comparing him to his 2017); 3) Massu, Thiem’s coach seems to be so confident about Thiem and his level of play, as if he has already devised a game plan for Thiem to beat Rafa here.
I do think that this time Thiem is ready fo beat Djoko; he’s playing something like a Stan – power baseline game – plus, he’s willing to move to the net to take the ball early and attack from there. I feel that’s how he beat Rafa at Barcelona, taking away time from Rafa.
I say, Thiem in four or five sets.
It’s all rain n cloudy for Rafa Vs fed .how do you think it will affect the match lucky. No trace of sun at all
Sanju, you worry about the weather a lot! Do you think Rafa will be at a disadvantage with rainy/wet weather? It will affect him, of course, but also Fed. I just don’t see either player with a clear advantage.
Joe’s right, the weather will affect both guys, not only Rafa.
I am expecting a Djokovic beatdown of Thiem in 3 with a breadstick in the final set.
Tight first and then a crumble.
Why would Thiem crumble? Thiem is no Sasha, he’s so full of confidence now, if anything, it may be Thiem making Djoko runs out of idea!
Yeah, but this is Prime Djokovic. He slaughtered Rafa at the Aus Open when everyone thought Rafa was at his best in terms of Hard Court performance.
Thiem has to be on song like in Barcelona against Rafa to have any chance of even getting a set against this Djokovic.
I agree he is mentally stronger than Sasha but skill wise he is no match for Novak today.
Excuse me, AO was how many months ago? Did you see how he play at IW/Miami? If anything he’s being slaughtered there by his opponents.
This is clay, not the HC of AO! He want to slaughter Thiem? Well it may take the whole afternoon or evening for him to do that! He may end up being slaughtered if he’s not careful!
You are conveniently forgetting that Rafa gave Djokovic a nice packed lunch in Rome of a bagel and a breadstick.
Imo, Thiem is another Stan in the making, and I feel he may be better than Stan one day, ie he may win a slam at a younger age than Stan, and may win a few.
If Thiem can at least beat one of Djoko/Rafa here, that will prove to me he’s ready to take the next leap, that of winning a slam. If Thiem can rein in some of his ‘reckless’ go for broke tennis and add in more precision to his shots, he may be a better player than Stan at his best, as he has some good net approaches and volleying, and is willing to move forward instead of staying at the baseline all the time.
I think his new coach Massu has made the difference in his game – makes him venture to the net more often, hence he’s not that one dimensional anymore.
Massu says he wants to make and see Thiem become no.1 player, well, after the big three have past their slam winning days, perhaps that may come true. I think Thiem has the time, the game and the power to outhit or outgrind guys like Sasha, Tsitsipas or Shapo, before they fulfil their potential in future, to become formidable players and formidable opponents to anyone.
You’re right that Thiem has a good net game, and he has to be willing to use it more. That will be the key for him to be able to upset Novak, imo. However, like Fed in the other SF, he has to be willing to stick with that plan even when he’s getting passed, like he will.
Luckystar JUNE 7, 2019 AT 5:17 AM
“Imo, Thiem is another Stan in the making, and I feel he may be better than Stan one day, ie he may win a slam at a younger age than Stan, and may win a few.
If Thiem can at least beat one of Djoko/Rafa here, that will prove to me he’s ready to take the next leap, that of winning a slam. If Thiem can rein in some of his ‘reckless’ go for broke tennis and add in more precision to his shots, he may be a better player than Stan at his best, as he has some good net approaches and volleying, and is willing to move forward instead of staying at the baseline all the time.”
Be careful what you wish for. If Thiem beats Rafa here he will be the champion it won’t just be the next leap……
Thiem goes for broke because he doesn’t have many layers to his game and it will take him a while to change what he does atm, if ever.
Nadline, obviously you’ve not watched Thiem’s every match. Thiem doesn’t go for broke always, that Thiem was the 2018 version. Thiem hardly go for broke to beat Rafa at Barcelona and won the title there. He didn’t go for broke to beat Fed at Madrid and Djoko barely edged him in two TBs to beat him; Thiem hardly needed to go for broke facing the three of them!
Also, what did I wish for? Thiem to beat Rafa?
Rafa has explained that he was working his way to being match-fit, mentally, after being sidelined from IW with a knee injury again, at the start of his clay season. Have you read the interview Moya gave about how down Rafa’s spirit was and how his team had to work on him to encourage to even play those tournaments because he felt so frustrated with his start/ stop career due to injury? Thiem beatin ‘that Rafa’ is no measure of what Thiem can do.
You cannot judge Rafa on his losses this year in MC through to Madrid because of what he was going through. Maybe you haven’t seen his post-match press conferences on clay this year.
I read everything.
I’m not measuring Thiem to the Rafa of MC or Barcelona. I’m looking at how Thiem plays, especially when facing the big three. I’m watched Rafa’s matches here at RG, as I’ve mentioned, his level is still below his 2018 level, whilst Thiem is playing better than his own 2018 level; plus Thiem is now more willing to take the ball early and coming forward to the net more often.
Unless Rafa could hit his FH with depth and plenty of topspin to give Thiem problem at his BH corner, Rafa will also have a hard time beating this Thiem, because as shown at Barcelona, once Rafa didn’t hit with depth, Thiem had all the time to move his legs to take the ball with his own FH CC and so neutralised Rafa’s topspin FH effect on Thiem’s SHBH.
I don’t want to measure Rafa and Thiem against each other because I’m not a tennis expert. All I can look at is the fact that Thiem has had to work harder to get to the SF. He even had to beat a WC in 4 sets in the first round. Having won Barcelona, he lost in the first round in Rome to Verdasco.
Let’s see if they both make it to the final.