French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

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“It was almost impossible to beat him.”

That’s what Juan Martin Del Potro said of Rafael Nadal following their French Open semifinal showdown on Friday, which Nadal dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. And that’s how it’s been throughout Nadal’s career at Roland Garros, where he is 85-2 lifetime with losses only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015).

Dominic Thiem is next in line for a well-deserved shot at Nadal, as the tour’s two best clay-courters over the past two seasons will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. Since the end of 2016, Thiem is the only player who has defeated Nadal on clay–and he has done it twice. The Austrian pulled off a 6-4, 6-3 upset at the 2017 Rome Masters before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks ago in Madrid. Having also won 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) two years ago in Buenos Aires, Thiem is one of only three men who have beaten Nadal at least three times on clay in their entire careers (also Djokovic and Gaston Gaudio).

It is the current world No. 1, however, who leads the overall head-to-head series–the entirety of which has been played on clay–by a 6-3 score. Nadal is 5-2 at Thiem’s expense dating back to the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters, with a trio of victories in 2017 followed by a recent 6-0, 6-2 rout in Monte-Carlo.

Although the Spaniard has succumbed to Thiem three times on what is obviously the preferred surface for both players, Roland Garros has always been a whole different story. In addition to his 85-2 tournament record, Nadal is an unbelievable 110-2 for his career in best-of-five matches on clay. Bidding for his 11th French Open title, the top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, Maximilian Marterer, Diego Schwartzman, and Juan Martin Del Potro. After donating a set at the French Open for the first time since 2015 (his opener against Schwartzman), Nadal reeled off set scores of 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 against the two Argentines.

Thiem got over the hump that was two consecutive Roland Garros semifinal losses when he put an end to Marco Cecchinato’s incredible run 7-5, 7-6(10), 6-1 on Friday. The world No. 8 preceded that result with mostly routine defeats of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Thiem is 24-4 on the red stuff in 2018, a mark that features titles in Bueonos Aires and much more recently in Nice to go along with a runner-up performance in Madrid.

“You know when you start the clay-court season that Dominic [is] one of these players that [has] the chance to win every tournament that he’s playing, and maybe even more here in Roland Garros,” Nadal noted.

“He’s a big favorite against everybody,” Thiem said of his opponent. “Still, I know how to play against him. I have a plan…. If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also (a) different story.”

Thiem, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 loser in their semifinal contest a year ago, knows as well as anyone how difficult to take down the King of Clay at Roland Garros. The underdog must come out of his comfort zone and take groundstrokes early instead of trading blow for blow with Nadal from 10 meters behind the baseline. If Thiem does that, this could be competitive. If he cannot find the right balance of boldness and patience, he will be handled in swift fashion.

Impossible? Not quite. Improbable? That’s an understatement.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 13 games

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68 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. As someone did above, Rafa should not longer be referred to as the King of Clay….He is the GOD of Clay!

    What is really is true that he physically cannot be beaten in a RG Final? Could it actually be the case??? We know he’s technically beatable pre-semis. But post-QF? Makes ya wonder! 🙂

      • Am pretty sure rick y said fed will win wimby without dropping a set!!!
        Maybe you need to ask him???😀
        Not sure who else can win???!!

        • Oh there’s tons of other people to win Wimbledon…if Fed goes out early, that is. It could happen.

          I sure he’s hungry to get another Wimble under his belt after Rafa’s latest win.

          Honestly I’d like a surprise winner. But right now…I don’t know.

  2. Congrats to Rafa!! 🎉 🎉 It cannot be understated how impressive this accomplishment is. This kind of dominance of a single slam is really just incredible to see. To see him so happy and joyful even after winning this so many times is really nice to see as well. Congrats to the humble king of clay #RafaNada11

  3. Congrats Rafa..Congrats Rafans..11 is incredible ..mira, amy, nny, natashao, VR,luckystar, vmk1, rafa rules, hawk , graviera and many more …sorry forgetting names

    and ..unparalleled..FRom an injury laden start to the year, he was once again dominated clay stretch, won 4 titles..undecimas at 3 converging at same time ..never thought it would happen twice in a row.

    Feel bad for Dominic..hope he wins atleast 3 in future as he is of the rafa work ethic and dynamic ..

    Cmon rafa no 18 next..at one of the non clay slams..pick of slam is yours :-)..my desire is AO for double career slam 🙂

    • Yeah Sanju!!….Much much congrats to u too!!WOOOOOOHOOOOOO!!….UNBELIE11ABLR 11!!….My God!!…Fuh!..What a ride on a very shaky Rafa roller coaster this year!…My hair turned white in some places all of a sudden bcoz of Rafa!!URGHHH!!But…it’s worth it!!Hehehehe….

  4. Just came here to say congrats to my fellow rafans. I had zero doubts he would win and he is untouchable on this court when on song.

    Congrats and have a great day everyone 🙂

    • VR,

      You were very much missed throughout RG this time. People even posted pleas for you to come back! But I am glad that you did come back to join in the celebration for his 11th title! It boggles the mind!

      This one was very stressful for me. Especially the match with Diego!!

      It’s just a great moment!

      Thanks for coming back to share in the joy!
      😀

      • Bravo NNY! thank you!

        Yes, it is nothing short of mind boggling. Winning 11 titles at a single slam is just out of this world.

        I do think he should play on grass and if he is able to get past the 4th round (which he nearly did last year), I would give him a decent chance.

        • Hehehe…Thanks VR!!…Hey!wait!wait!…is that Nan curry chicken at your lips??Hah!I know!!…You’re not fasting!!!…Hehehehehe…
          IT’S GREAT TO HAVE U BACK HERE VR!!…Even for a while!!…

          May Allah Bless U VR!….Assalamualaikum!

      • Hey Joey! Thanks for your message. Yes all is well at my end 🙂

        Good luck to your champion for the grass season! hope you have fun.

  5. I have not given up hopes on rafa having one last hurrah at wimby..I thought it would be 14 then 27 but he got out 4th round both times to nick n Muller playing out of their skin…let’s see this time

  6. Hi to all fellow Rafans.
    I was with you in spirit but didn’t join in the discussions as I was at a friend’s house watching on one of those giant TVs the size of a cinema screen. Beats peering at my laptop screen any day. lol

    I, like others, was moved by Rafa emotional reaction at the prize-giving ceremony. You might think by now he would
    be used to biting on the trophy. Not a bit of it. In fact I don’t recall him being reduced to tears last year when he hoisted the ‘la Decima’ trophy.

    • Ed, i think this FO is more special because of what he had gone through early this year, and he knew how hard it was for him to win it again.

      We sometimes take him for granted but we have to realize that he’s also getting older and its getting tougher and tougher to win here esp when his opponents are much younger too.

  7. Important question…will rafa win more RG or Novak win more slams 🙂 it’s 11 n 12 now…

    Rafa has more rg titles than all except 4 have slams( fed,Pete , Novak , Borg) …this is just unreal .

    It is even more unreal that converging of undecima at 3 tourneys happened at same time like la decima the immediate next year

    • I understood that’s exactly their intention: renovating the clay composition. If true, I guess they want to make it faster. Well, that’s just another challenge for Rafa! If healthy, he will overcome any such obstacle because the clay is his natural habitat!

      I am impressed the way Rafa played in the final: he avoids running around to hit his powerful forehands and relies on his unbelievably strong backhand which causes so much trouble to his opponents these days! He realized the bkh was his weakness and worked hard to improve it creating a powerful weapon! I think Fed will feel it on his own skin next time they meet!

      Also those timely dropshots to shorten the points were some piece of art! I love it! Tactical game was extraordinary. It was the right game plan to handle Thiem! Execution was also perfect! Everything worked out perfectly! I am so proud of Rafa and his team! This was a joy to watch!

      Rafa needs rest now! I hope those wrists are ok! If there is any injury scare Rafa will skip Wimbledon. If he is healthy i expect him to go deep this time given improvements in his game that I mentioned above!

      I am honored to be member of the joyful and proud Rafa fan base!

      We love you,Rafa! ❤️

      Vamos Champ!

        • Eactly my thought, Hawkeye! I’m fairly sure that the new court will be less compatible with Rafa’s specific strength.
          I don’t buy the story line that the French have warmed towards Rafa in a major way. It’s more like Rafa forced them to grudgingly acknowledge his astounding dominance. If they really loved im they would name the new court “Court Rafa Nadal”. Or they would give him the original trophy and make a new one. That would be an apt celebration of his excellence. The trophy has been bitten so many times by him now – it really should be his! If nly for sanitary reasons, lol!

        • Augusta, the commentator said the opposite. He spoke abour changing clay composition but I guess he was just speculating! I wouldn’t be surprised though that they would go that far to change the clay, but hope not…

          • Don’t they renew the clay surface every year anyway? Rafa didn’t especially like it this year and said, that there was a slippery white component in it which made sliding more dangerous.That could be one explanation why he seemed to be less comfortable on court than last year. Th
            I’m not so much worried about future clay composition which has already been different from year to year. I’m worried that they will reduce the space behind the baseline. The current dimensions were very advantageous for Rafa’s style. But I#m sure that Rafa will be able to adapt to whatever the French will throw at him, lol – if he manages to arrive healthy next year.

      • Natashao says AT 7:43 PM: “I hope those wrists are ok!”
        ===

        Rafa did NOT have wrist problems Paris!

        Rafa was asked at his post-QF press conference (at 2:10 in the video below): “Why did you have tape applied on your arms yesterday. The trainer came out.”
        RAFA answered: “It was very wet, very humid. The sweat was coming to my hands, so just to protect a little bit. Because if you have tape behind the wristband, then it holds a little bit more the sweat. That’s all. It is not usual here in Paris, but this year is very humid.”

        https://youtu.be/EHee5Ns5E1I

        It’s a pretty well-known fact that Rafa has his arms near the wrists taped when it’s very humid (for example, when he played in South America).
        The picture below was taken after the 2014 Rio Open SF. There are tapes under his wristbands:

        https://statics.sportskeeda.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/rafael-nadal-rio-2118025.jpg

    • vmk1 AT 7:53 PM

      Rafa said at his post-match press conference:”I had a long and tough season on clay, I will decide with my team how to do for grass season ”

      I can’t stand pro-Fed journalists’ imaginary stories about Rafa that the latter is copying Fed!

      • I agree with augusta here. It is beyond annoying to hear that Rafa is copying Fed by potentially skipping Wimby. He played there last year when Fed skipped the clay court season.

        Rafa makes decisions based on what is best for his body. I don’t think his team could care less about what Fed does. Not everything is about Fed!

      • Amazing how touchy some Nadal fans are . How dare anyone suggest the remotest possibility that Nadal is playing second fiddle to Fed!
        Actually, since its worked for Fed to skip clay, its only common sense for Nadal to skip grass to save his knees, even he’s four years younger.

        • Big Al AT 9:51 PM,’

          Rafa’s decisions have NOTHING to do with Fed. Rafa has said it REPEATEDLY. Deal with it.

    • I wouldn’t be surprised at all! Rafa’s body needs rest and we know grass does no favors to his fragile knees..,so why not skip Wimby and go for another USO title…

      Rafa and his team know what’s best for him! I support whatever they find is best!

      Vamos!

      • I dont think Rafa wants to skip any slam, he said hes not 36 so he’s going to play his own schedule and not skipping any event (unless hes injured).

        I think its not time yet that Rafa would consider skipping important events like a slam. In the past he did skip a Masters (at Paris) at end of season when he’s allowed to skip one but he normally sticks to playing 17 events (including WTF) since, skipping one 500 in Feb or on grass before Wimbledon, and one Masters(2017 was an exception where he played 18).

        This year I think at best hes playing 15 events plus DC (I hope he skips the Laver Cup) so I think he will be fine.

        • luckystar AT 8:04 AM,

          Rafa has skipped the Paris Masters because of being injured.

          I don’t think he’ll play in the 2018 Laver Cup, because he has promised to play in the Davis Cup SF (Sept.14 -16).

    • It would make a lot of sense for Nadal to skip Wimby. He is almost certainly carrying niggling injuries, possibly still from pre-clay season. He always brings 100% on clay and I’m sure plays through a lot of pain. But he’s 32, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his body isn’t up to playing an entire season any more, at least not without increased risk of serious injury.

        • I keep trying to tell you, Augusta:

          I don’t love, worship, or adore Fed. I’m not a disciple and he’s not my hero, much less God.

          That’s the (one) difference between you and me.

          • Joe Smith AT 9:23 PM,

            I’m not afraid to admit that I’m a Rafa fan. I’m proud to be his fan!
            Vamos Rafa!

  8. Congrats to all you Rafans on here (99% of active users)!! I am truly happy for you all. What impressed me the most about this title run is that it really looked dismal for Rafa on the injury front at the start of the season. But he overcame it in some serious style!

    One thing I’ve been thinking about in regards to Fedal is that if Fed hadn’t managed to make his late-career resurgence, Rafa would potentially be leading Fed in total majors 18-17 (if we assume for the sake of argument that Rafa would have won AO 2017)! When Fed has his surgery and subsequent problems in 2016, I was pretty certain that he was just too old to be able to realistically challenge for majors again. But he stuck to his guns, and potentially saved his legacy in a sense.

    And on the flip side, if Rafa hadn’t pulled out of his own slump and subsequent injury woes, Fed could potentially lead Rafa in total majors 20-14 right now. But Rafa stuck to HIS guns, and potentially saved HIS own legacy in a sense.

    What I’m trying to say is, it’s just incredible how after all these years, these

    • Its also because of Djoko’s injuries during 2016 or 2017 that had given chances for Fedal’s revival.

      I mean Fedal were no.2 and 3 behind Djoko before that and before they suffered their injuries/mini slump(s), so once Djoko wasnt there Fedal would fill the gap, though I must say the way Fedal are playing now, they would give a fit and top form Djoko a run for his money, esp at the FO (for Rafa) and the quicker surface of AO (for Fed). Djoko would still be tough to beat at Wimbledon and USO and the three would be fighting for the top three positions.

      Murray’s injury is more serious so he will fall behind the trio imo.

  9. it’s just something awesome to watch, time and time again…Thiem was schooled big time today, nothing he could have done. Not even those cramps could stop Rafa today.
    Congratulations to all Rafans out there!!!!!
    Rafa please, be kind to your body now, get some rest and skip Wimby

  10. Congrats to Rafa and his fans on an historic 11th RG title. I didn’t think he was at his best, but he managed to close it out in straights regardless.

    Thiem said he had a plan, but as far as I could tell his main plan was to stand close to the baseline to return Nadal’s 1st serve. It was clear by Rafa’s second service game that the plan wasn’t going to work, and imo it probably cost Thiem the first set. He just gave Rafa too many easy points on missed returns. I fully expected him to abandon the plan in the second set and to take a couple steps back. Why he didn’t escapes me. I give him credit for trying (in the first two sets, not the last), but he needed to be his absolute best to have a chance today, and he was far from that.

    I’m not sure what happened in the last set, but when Nadal seemed hurt, Thiem utterly failed to push up the aggression. He looked like a guy who didn’t think he deserved to win. Which he didn’t. Again, congrats to Nadal on another RG title and amazing clay court season.

    • Why Thiem didnt take a step back? Thats because at Madrid when he beat Rafa, he didnt step back and he was aggressive and stepping inside the court.

      RG is no Madrid, and this time its Rafa pushing Thiem back and Thiem was always on the back foot and hardly could step inside the court, its only when Rafa dropped shot him that he had to rush forward but only to hit the ball into the net or shanked his shot.

      Rafa is simply too crafty for Thiem; Thiem is too one dimensional, he has to add in more varieties to his game, he’s too poor when at the net.

      • lucky,

        I agree with you. I thought Thiem looked one-dimensional in the final. I think Rafa exposed that with his court craft and varied game plan. It was not about Thiem standing on the baseline. That is too simplistic. Also, Thiem did not serve well. That big serve is a huge weapon and helps to set up hid powerful groundstrokes. The know that that stats for the first set showed that Thiem was not getting in even 50% of first serves, winning only about 56 or 58%. He was under 50% winning second serves. That is not good enough to run a slam final.

        That match did not come down to one thing. It was the variety in Rafa’s game, his better serving on that day and also the accuracy and precision of his backhand. Also, his stellar play at net.

          • Thiem has always been called out for being one-dimensional. If he doesn’t add more variety and starts to play with more intelligence, I doubt that he will be Rafa’s heir as the future best clay courter. I think that ultimately Zverev has a better chance – if he manages the five-set format, that is.
            I think that Rafa beat Thiem with his superior tennis intelligence. This was really apparent when his hand suddenly started cramping. This must’ve been an awful scare so close to the finish line! But Rafa still managed to win his next service game by adapting his tactics, although he could only just manage to spin the ball into the service box. Nobody is as able to make the right mid-match adjustments as Rafa.

  11. So happy for the Undecima 🙂 What Rafa’s doing on RG is totally out of this world,IMO,the greatest achievement in the history of the sports in general.
    What can I say about the match? Thiem played at such a good level in the first set but a slip in his serve and Rafa made him pay at took it,that’s how good he is! Poor Thiem,there was a moment where you could see that he didn’t know what he could try anymore to hurt Rafa,he ran out of ideas! I seriously hope he can bag RG one day,he’s too much of a nice guy to not win there.

    With the 11th win in RG,Rafa has now the same number of slams as Borg’s total GS tally,but at the same GS. Just think about it for a while,it’s INSANE!

    It’s amazing for me to share this joy with the Rafa family here,I love you guys,you’re sensational in so many ways 😊

    Vamos Rafa 💪👑🎾

    • Actually, Rafa made all his opponents here feel this way. You could also see the same look in Delpo, Diego, Pella and Bolelli! They all tried hard but just not good enough.

      I think the key for Rafa is his varieties esp when playing on clay, it’s truly a pleasure watching Rafa playing this way. In the past Rafa gave the impression that he’s using his speed and power to overwhelm his opponents but now everyone is hitting hard and serving big against him, he’s not going to overpower them so here comes all his varieties – the angles, the spins, the changes of pace and direction, the slices, the lobs, the volleys and the net approaches. His special ROS positions and varieties even in his ROS!

      None of his opponents could play that way against him; no wonder they felt hopeless at some points during the match. Delpo’s give after his SF match said it all, it’s almost impossible to beat Rafa at RG (when Rafa is/was playing like this).

      I’m just glad that despite Rafa’s serving issues, he’s still able to win the FO this time. It’s not difficult to see that this FO is a hard fought one for him, unlike last year. He losing only one set along the way when some of his opponents had chances to win a set from him is already rather amazing.

      I guess Rafa will always feel nervous and fighting to stay calm each time he walks out to the court to play his matches. We’ll have to accept that.

      • And I think the crowd there at RG finally appreciated Rafa after watching him as a 31 ( last year) and 32 year old using all his varieties to defeat all his hard hitting and younger opponents. They gave him a standing ovation here during the victory ceremony and Rafa cried; I think he truly earned their respect – he’s no longer considered the brute who used his arms and legs to beat all his opponents by brute force the way they thought he was during his early reign here.

        After watching the two finals (2017/2018) they could see Rafa was using all his varieties and skills and court craft to beat all his tough opponents here. It’s not brute force or speed, but the understanding of how to make full use of the court to defeat his opponents.

        I think players like Thiem or Sasha, the younger players, should study how Rafa plays on clay, ie how he’s using all the angles, the positions on court to take advantage over his opponents. Rafa makes tennis looks like a chess game especially on clay, so his younger opponents should study that and work on getting their tactics, strategies or game plans right.

        Rafa has a female Russian tennis player as his fan, I think her name is Daria Kasatkina if I’m not wrong, and she studies his game and is using spins and angles too when playing her matches. I think the male tennis players should do that too on clay and learn something from it.

        • So, Fed Djokovic and Theim , all of whom are great clay couters themselves have all tried at RG. They cant just get a hang of Rafa.

          Rafa’s biggest skill is to turn defense into attack. He is a master tactician and pulled dropshopts from his kitty in SF and F and kept his opponents guessing.

          I mean to say that he has a gruelling RG in which he lost a single set is a testimony to Rafa’s dominance on clay.

        • luckystar AT 3:22 AM: “And I think the crowd there at RG finally appreciated Rafa …They gave him a standing ovation here during the victory ceremony …”
          ===

          The RG crowd has always given Rafa standing ovations. The difference is that it has become more difficult for paid journalists to fabricate whatever stories because there are too many witnesses who can quickly post information via social media and even tweet to the journalists when the latters talk&write crap.

        • Probably Rafa would be done winnining Slams if Moya didnt’t come along. Without the improvements on his BH and especially on his serve,it would have been really hard.
          Rafa’s actually playing smarter than ever,mixing the play instead grinding down everyone like in the old days. Moya also deserves credit for that tactical change,but Rafa always had an amazing touch(drops,volleys,etc.),so he just needed to exploit that part of his game a little bit.
          Many are saying that he should skip Wimby.I mean,if he’s knees are ok,he sould give it a try,even if he’s not reaching the second week,it’s worth a shot,IMO. If somehow he gets there,who knows what can happen,especially with the current field.

  12. Im happy for Nadal and his fans ,though disappointed in Thiem.The occasion was too much for him, obviously .He does have the game to play Nadal on clay,but unless he got off to a good start he was never going to beat Nadal over five.
    However, taking nothing away from the humble clay GOAT and knowledgeable fans (some not so humble) on here.

    • Al, three things stood out to me in terms of differences between the two players. First, Thiem didn’t adjust his plan of standing close to the baseline to return, even after it was clear that it wasn’t working. Nadal is just a smarter player, and often makes adjustments mid-match that need to be made.

      Second, Thiem lacks the variety, and especially the net game, that Nadal possesses. Thiem missed a number of key volleys and/or opportunities to come in when he had built an advantage in the point. The contrast with Rafa was striking, who was pretty ruthlessly efficient when he had such opportunities.

      Third, in this match Thiem simply didn’t play the big points as well as Nadal. He was either too tentative, or when he had the chance he missed a few fairly easy putaways.

      All of that said, I think a lot hung on the first set, where Thiem played Rafa pretty even and arguably better for most of the set. Had he been able to win that set, the match might have had a different outcome, especially with the way Rafa was looking at the end of the 3rd.

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