“It was almost impossible to beat him.”
That’s what Juan Martin Del Potro said of Rafael Nadal following their French Open semifinal showdown on Friday, which Nadal dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. And that’s how it’s been throughout Nadal’s career at Roland Garros, where he is 85-2 lifetime with losses only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015).
Dominic Thiem is next in line for a well-deserved shot at Nadal, as the tour’s two best clay-courters over the past two seasons will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. Since the end of 2016, Thiem is the only player who has defeated Nadal on clay–and he has done it twice. The Austrian pulled off a 6-4, 6-3 upset at the 2017 Rome Masters before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks ago in Madrid. Having also won 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) two years ago in Buenos Aires, Thiem is one of only three men who have beaten Nadal at least three times on clay in their entire careers (also Djokovic and Gaston Gaudio).
It is the current world No. 1, however, who leads the overall head-to-head series–the entirety of which has been played on clay–by a 6-3 score. Nadal is 5-2 at Thiem’s expense dating back to the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters, with a trio of victories in 2017 followed by a recent 6-0, 6-2 rout in Monte-Carlo.
Although the Spaniard has succumbed to Thiem three times on what is obviously the preferred surface for both players, Roland Garros has always been a whole different story. In addition to his 85-2 tournament record, Nadal is an unbelievable 110-2 for his career in best-of-five matches on clay. Bidding for his 11th French Open title, the top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, Maximilian Marterer, Diego Schwartzman, and Juan Martin Del Potro. After donating a set at the French Open for the first time since 2015 (his opener against Schwartzman), Nadal reeled off set scores of 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 against the two Argentines.
Thiem got over the hump that was two consecutive Roland Garros semifinal losses when he put an end to Marco Cecchinato’s incredible run 7-5, 7-6(10), 6-1 on Friday. The world No. 8 preceded that result with mostly routine defeats of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Thiem is 24-4 on the red stuff in 2018, a mark that features titles in Bueonos Aires and much more recently in Nice to go along with a runner-up performance in Madrid.
“You know when you start the clay-court season that Dominic [is] one of these players that [has] the chance to win every tournament that he’s playing, and maybe even more here in Roland Garros,” Nadal noted.
“He’s a big favorite against everybody,” Thiem said of his opponent. “Still, I know how to play against him. I have a plan…. If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also (a) different story.”
Thiem, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 loser in their semifinal contest a year ago, knows as well as anyone how difficult to take down the King of Clay at Roland Garros. The underdog must come out of his comfort zone and take groundstrokes early instead of trading blow for blow with Nadal from 10 meters behind the baseline. If Thiem does that, this could be competitive. If he cannot find the right balance of boldness and patience, he will be handled in swift fashion.
Impossible? Not quite. Improbable? That’s an understatement.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 13 games
[polldaddy poll=10026282]
who ya got?
Rafa in 3 or 4 to get #11 in Paris
As much as I desperately want to see one of these younger guys to take the next step and realize their potential, I just don’t see any way it will realistically happen at Roland Garros against Nadal…
Rafa in 3. Maybe I’ll be generous and give Thiem a lost tiebreak? Ehhhh, I don’t think.
Side note- I wouldn’t be surprised if this match is played over two days with many rain breaks. Judging by recent events, that should favor Rafa. But it could also provide relief for Thiem should he be getting blown out.
3 more sets to go, it is inevitable.
Rafa should win this, I hope in three sets and done within one day. At Rome 2017 and Madrid 2018, Rafa was playing subpar tennis and Thiem great tennis, and Rafa wasn’t being defeated with 6-1 or 6-0 score lines, so it still took great efforts from Thiem to beat Rafa.
At RG, Rafa rarely played poorly, only on two occasions so far, plus one set of the worst tennis I’ve seen him played at RG (first set of QF 2018) but he had never played poorly in a FO final. A Rafa playing well in a FO final is hard to beat – Djoko, Fed, Stan, Ferrer, Sod all failed. I doubt Thiem is playing better tennis than any of them, whilst Rafa is playing as good as ever tennis at the FO.
Thiem is a threat on clay no doubt and he’s getting better, but Rafa is playing very well at the moment despite his serving woes and he has so much court craft that Thiem will find it hard to deal with over a BO5 match I feel.
I once again will said..If it’s hot & sunny….Rafa will easily close the match in 3…But,if it’s rain & wet…The match is going to be tough…Thiem already proved in Madrid that he’s not his old self,easily swayed by Rafa’s aura…He’s been able to stand firm & was very wise manipulated the nature’s element too…
Rafa has to produced his form of yesterday/better in order to face Thiem tomorrow,which i’m sure Rafa will…
In other thought,Thiem as the 1st timer finalist…maybe will get overwhelmed by everythings,and will get blasted on court easily by The King!Who knows!!C’mon!Bring it on!!Woohooo!!
Oh!Nny!…I think u would love to read what Moya said about Rafa…
http://sport360.com/article/tennis/286358/rafael-nadal-must-be-wary-of-nervous-start-against-dominic-thiem-says-carlos-moya
MA,
I think Moya had some interesting things to say. Rafa has been battling nerves. I agree with him about Rafa not being able to have a tentative start in the final.
He has a lot of respect for Thiem,
Yeah Nny!…He’s also has a lot of respect for Diego too!…In my post in Rafa vs Diego thread,i already said..he’s not intimidated by DelPo/less of him afraid compared with Diego…He knew Diego has a game that can troubled him such as the out of nowhere DTL shot…The game style that peak Nole & Kei has…This kind of player can make him really nervous…
But, he’s not afraid of Thiem despite Thiem already beat him twice…Thiem’s style of play will not intimidating Rafa one bit…Madrid’s case for me was a special one…Rome too[Rafa already fatigue that time]…I don’t think Thiem has a chance this time around…Not yet!hehehe..The King is still very much The King at RG!….Sorry Thiem!!
Thiem’s style is Stan’s style; Diego’s is Djoko’s and Kei’s style. There’s another player Goffin, that I feel Rafa is also wary of. Goffin’s style is a bit like Davydenko’s; when on full flight Goffin could move into the court, takes the ball early and plays aggressive tennis, more aggressive than Djoko’s imo and takes time away from Rafa.
Dimi used to trouble Rafa and could take a set from him whatever the surface, Rafa had some battle vs Dimi on clay at MC some years ago; Dimi reminded me of Fed with his SHBH vs Rafa on clay. Fed at his peak could take a set off Rafa on clay, not unlike Dimi.
Rafa is well aware of these younger players’ threat to him even on clay, the likes of Thiem, Goffin, Dimi, Kei and Diego. Dimi has fallen away somewhat but the other four are getting better on clay.
There’re also the next gen players like Sasha (who imo plays like a hybrid of Delpo and Djoko) who hits hard like Delpo but more agile like Djoko and can attack from both wings and comes with a great serve and good fitness. Tsitsipas is also another up and coming player on clay, with SHBH and moves like Fed, an attractive player to watch and has a good enough serve that can help him to win on other surfaces too.
MA,
I don’t want to take anything for granted. Thiem will come out blasting. I do not think he will be overwhelmed with being in his first final. I think when you are young then you don’t know to have nerves.
I just hope that Rafa comes out strong from the start.
Oh!This too Nny!..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/tennis/rafael-nadal-in-reaching-his-11th-french-open-final-keeps-killing-em-with-kindness/2018/06/08/624feefe-6b4c-11e8-bf8c-f9ed2e672adf_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.aca1ea74e1aa
MA,
Very nice read! It says a lot about who Rafa is.
😘
Yes but its not sunny Mira. Lot of rain. Weather can play spoilsport. Please pray for Rafa. This one is important and cannot go away . He is 32 and chances will get less for slams with age.
Rafa in 5 over 2 days
Nadal in four
GOAT in 3!!!
I agree with Hawkeye, Rafa in three crafty sets.
Feeling confident after yesterday’s SF. First set will be the key. I hope Rafa serves better at the start. He will open up the shoulders. Both will be nervous.
Somehow got an inkling feeling that Theim can cause an upset. Win or lose Court Philippe Chatrier belongs to him . One more young And strong challenger. Hopefully Rafa will put him to his place.
Oh no fedexal don’t say that about an upset. Not after reaching the final.(:-
Assuming no injuries, I would be surprised to see this over in 3 sets. If the weather is damp, given recent history, it will help Thiem a bit. OTOH, Rafa seems energized lately by rain delays, and if the weather forecast holds there is a decent chance that we will have at least one of those.
Very hard to call, but I’m saying Nadal in 5.
NNY, there is a good article from Ben Rothenberg in the NY Times abot the Cecchinato match fixing allegations. IMO Cecchinato doesn’t look good at all in this case. He apparently gave a long time friend the information that he wasn’t feeling well at all before his match against a much lower ranked player. Subsequently the friend and the friend’s father placed large bets against Cecchinato, who then predictably “lost” the match in two sets. The investigators retrieved messages from the friend’s phone which are incriminating. And Cecchinato deleted all of his messages which is certainly very suspicious! The case had to be dropped only because the Italian federation missed a 90-day deadline for wrapping things up! So, we can say that Cecchinato wasn’t cleared at all, and the case had to be dropped only because of a stupid technicality. It’s not clear if Cecchinato himself profitted from his friend’s bets, but there are indications that he planned to recoop money he had lost by betting on a soccer match.
I would be inclined to say, it’s water under the bridge if Cecchinato had been convicted and done his time like Sharapova for example. I’m not in favor of her being totally condemned for taking a medication which was legal just a few weeks before she was caught. Who knows how many other tennis players had taken the medication as well when it was still legal but ceased to take it after it became a banned substance? I’m sure there are many because most athlets try to gain every legal edge. Such is life, and Sharapova has done her time. Therefore, we should drop the matter now. But Cecchinato’s case is different. He didn’t do his time because the procecutors f..cked up. He was also not that lowly ranked at the time (No.85). So, he didn’t belong to the group of players who just scrape by. And he had apparently enough money for betting large sums on soccer matches.
That said, his sporting achievements at the FO are a different matter altogether. He did great, no matter what.
Well hopefully with the large prize money from the FO SF, and his improved ranking, he can and will now earn a decent living by winning matches and getting decent money earned from winning matches.
He has the skills and the game to win many matches if he continues to play this way (as in this FO).
littlefoot,
Thank you for that info. Now at least we know the whole truth. I ageee that it is very different from Sharapova who was suspended. There were some here who wanted her banned for life, which I though was wrong. You are right about the fact that the medication she took had been legal until it was changed at one point. I am glad that she was allowed to come back to the sport.
But Cecchinato’s situation is very different. That was a stupid technicality. He should have gotten some kind of punishment. The facts do not put him in a good light at all.
However, I also agree that the past should not reflect on his performance at RG. I just hope that he does not ever engage in that again. It is a truly appalling thing to think there is match fixing going on.
Thank you again for doing some research on this. I appreciate it!
Theim in 4.
Schwartzman and Del Potro didnt take their chances and it was all there for everyone to see. I get the feeling Theim will on Sunday.
Luckystar mentions a very pertinent point of Theim being more like a Stanimal kind of player. Plays from behind the baseline, serve, FH and BH all are pretty big shots. Ground strokes are very heavy. But I think Theim is a better mover, not sure how strong he is mentally.
We are going to see a lot of drop shots played from either player in the finals. Rafa should serve well, also return deep and in my opinion to BH side of Theim, Theim’s FH is Inside out and DTL both are very strong and heavy.
Its going to be interesting how Rafa breaks up Theim’s game on Sunday.
luckystar JUNE 9, 2018 AT 7:00 AM
“Thiem’s style is Stan’s style; Diego’s is Djoko’s and Kei’s style. There’s another player Goffin, that I feel Rafa is also wary of. Goffin’s style is a bit like Davydenko’s; when on full flight Goffin could move into the court, takes the ball early and plays aggressive tennis, more aggressive than Djoko’s imo and takes time away from Rafa.”
*************************************************************************************
Now you say it, it’s so clear the similarities in style of different players.
I was in Madrid and from the stands, Rafa seemed very out of sorts. I thought it was because he was too far behind the baseline because he got caught out many times because he was unable to get to the ball, but he wins hands down anyway even when he does that so that couldn’t be the reason.
Thiem was pounding the ball with all his might and shortening the points by aggressive tennis. Rafa didn’t seem to be in the mood to play aggressively but still managed to take the first set to 7:5. Rafa was first to serve in the 2nd set, it was approaching the evening so they put the floodlights on which looked a lot brighter in the sunshine than when it’s dull. I could see that Rafa was irritated by the glare of the bright light when he tossed the ball and he served a couple of double faults and lost his serve in the 1st game; going back to his seat he gestured to the umpire pointing to the lights. After that he didn’t seem to have the zeal to fight anymore with the way Thiem was going for broke so he lost the 2nd set 63.
Tomorrow is a new match.
Vamos Rafa!
If it was Theim’s first time against Nadal on Philippe Chatrier I’d have my doubts but he’s been here before and knows what to expect.
He’s coming off a win against Nadal also so there’s a few things in his favour.
1. Nadal showing chinks in his armour against Schwartzman and Del Potro. Advantage Theim
2. The weather conditions will be mild with chance of thunderstorms. Advantage Theim.
3. This is Theim’s 2nd crack at Nadal on Philippe Chatrier. Advantage Theim.
4. This will be Theim’s 4th match in a row on Philippe Chatrier. Advantage Theim.
5. Theim’s the dropped a set his last 2 matches which suggests he’s peaking. Advantage Theim.
5.The won their that encounter convingly and has beaten Nadal several times on clay. Advantage Theim.
6. Nadal is 34 and based on history, Theim is at the ripe age to win this title. Advantage Theim.
Rafa just turned 32. This is Theim’s 3rd crack at Rafa on Phillippe Chatrier Court.
If we have to wait for the dumbest person on tennisgrand – Advantage Jim courier
deleted
Ha Ha nice one. This is becoming pretty irritating the amount of hate Jim Courier has for Nadal.
👍Good one fedexal!
^ Well said!
Isn’t this the same person who predicted that Zverev would win RG!
What a joke!
No No Nadal is I think 40 not 34 ha ha ha. By the way you are the ultimate source of entertainment in this forum.How come all your predictions are false. At least tignor gets some of them right. Yesterday you predicted ceccinato in 4 and delpo in 4 and we saw what happened. So please keep your predictions in check as they are mostly not always wrong.
https://tenngrand.com/2018/06/07/french-open-nadal-del-potro/comment-page-1/#comment-304549
https://tenngrand.com/2018/06/07/french-open-nadal-del-potro/comment-page-1/#comment-304557
Evidence of my claims are here to be seen.
Oh the part you like the most. Vamos Rafa Vamos Rafa
* I mean they are always wrong
“Theim hasn’t dropped a set”
“Theim won their last encounter”
No one has won this title 11 times butany have won it once. Advantage Theim.
D. Thiem will be confident, Rafa needs to be careful.
It would be cool if D. Thiem could win the title but it would be difficult.
D. Theim will definately be confident, he just took out the form player of the tournamanent in straight sets that beat Djokovic in 4. He also beat Zverev 3:0 and Zverev had the match on his aquet aainst Nadal in Rome. All the indicators suggest he is well in this.
Theim just has to stay in the contest against Nadal and he will get his chances like we saw in Nadal’s last 2 matches. I highly dout we’re going to see another whitewash like what we saw in last years Roland Garros. I just cant see that happening based on Theims current form and everything else I just noted.
At 4-5/1 odds, I think he’s a great bet.