“It was almost impossible to beat him.”
That’s what Juan Martin Del Potro said of Rafael Nadal following their French Open semifinal showdown on Friday, which Nadal dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. And that’s how it’s been throughout Nadal’s career at Roland Garros, where he is 85-2 lifetime with losses only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015).
Dominic Thiem is next in line for a well-deserved shot at Nadal, as the tour’s two best clay-courters over the past two seasons will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. Since the end of 2016, Thiem is the only player who has defeated Nadal on clay–and he has done it twice. The Austrian pulled off a 6-4, 6-3 upset at the 2017 Rome Masters before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks ago in Madrid. Having also won 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) two years ago in Buenos Aires, Thiem is one of only three men who have beaten Nadal at least three times on clay in their entire careers (also Djokovic and Gaston Gaudio).
It is the current world No. 1, however, who leads the overall head-to-head series–the entirety of which has been played on clay–by a 6-3 score. Nadal is 5-2 at Thiem’s expense dating back to the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters, with a trio of victories in 2017 followed by a recent 6-0, 6-2 rout in Monte-Carlo.
Although the Spaniard has succumbed to Thiem three times on what is obviously the preferred surface for both players, Roland Garros has always been a whole different story. In addition to his 85-2 tournament record, Nadal is an unbelievable 110-2 for his career in best-of-five matches on clay. Bidding for his 11th French Open title, the top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, Maximilian Marterer, Diego Schwartzman, and Juan Martin Del Potro. After donating a set at the French Open for the first time since 2015 (his opener against Schwartzman), Nadal reeled off set scores of 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 against the two Argentines.
Thiem got over the hump that was two consecutive Roland Garros semifinal losses when he put an end to Marco Cecchinato’s incredible run 7-5, 7-6(10), 6-1 on Friday. The world No. 8 preceded that result with mostly routine defeats of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Thiem is 24-4 on the red stuff in 2018, a mark that features titles in Bueonos Aires and much more recently in Nice to go along with a runner-up performance in Madrid.
“You know when you start the clay-court season that Dominic [is] one of these players that [has] the chance to win every tournament that he’s playing, and maybe even more here in Roland Garros,” Nadal noted.
“He’s a big favorite against everybody,” Thiem said of his opponent. “Still, I know how to play against him. I have a plan…. If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also (a) different story.”
Thiem, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 loser in their semifinal contest a year ago, knows as well as anyone how difficult to take down the King of Clay at Roland Garros. The underdog must come out of his comfort zone and take groundstrokes early instead of trading blow for blow with Nadal from 10 meters behind the baseline. If Thiem does that, this could be competitive. If he cannot find the right balance of boldness and patience, he will be handled in swift fashion.
Impossible? Not quite. Improbable? That’s an understatement.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 13 games
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