French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

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“It was almost impossible to beat him.”

That’s what Juan Martin Del Potro said of Rafael Nadal following their French Open semifinal showdown on Friday, which Nadal dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. And that’s how it’s been throughout Nadal’s career at Roland Garros, where he is 85-2 lifetime with losses only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015).

Dominic Thiem is next in line for a well-deserved shot at Nadal, as the tour’s two best clay-courters over the past two seasons will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. Since the end of 2016, Thiem is the only player who has defeated Nadal on clay–and he has done it twice. The Austrian pulled off a 6-4, 6-3 upset at the 2017 Rome Masters before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks ago in Madrid. Having also won 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) two years ago in Buenos Aires, Thiem is one of only three men who have beaten Nadal at least three times on clay in their entire careers (also Djokovic and Gaston Gaudio).

It is the current world No. 1, however, who leads the overall head-to-head series–the entirety of which has been played on clay–by a 6-3 score. Nadal is 5-2 at Thiem’s expense dating back to the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters, with a trio of victories in 2017 followed by a recent 6-0, 6-2 rout in Monte-Carlo.

Although the Spaniard has succumbed to Thiem three times on what is obviously the preferred surface for both players, Roland Garros has always been a whole different story. In addition to his 85-2 tournament record, Nadal is an unbelievable 110-2 for his career in best-of-five matches on clay. Bidding for his 11th French Open title, the top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, Maximilian Marterer, Diego Schwartzman, and Juan Martin Del Potro. After donating a set at the French Open for the first time since 2015 (his opener against Schwartzman), Nadal reeled off set scores of 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 against the two Argentines.

Thiem got over the hump that was two consecutive Roland Garros semifinal losses when he put an end to Marco Cecchinato’s incredible run 7-5, 7-6(10), 6-1 on Friday. The world No. 8 preceded that result with mostly routine defeats of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Thiem is 24-4 on the red stuff in 2018, a mark that features titles in Bueonos Aires and much more recently in Nice to go along with a runner-up performance in Madrid.

“You know when you start the clay-court season that Dominic [is] one of these players that [has] the chance to win every tournament that he’s playing, and maybe even more here in Roland Garros,” Nadal noted.

“He’s a big favorite against everybody,” Thiem said of his opponent. “Still, I know how to play against him. I have a plan…. If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also (a) different story.”

Thiem, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 loser in their semifinal contest a year ago, knows as well as anyone how difficult to take down the King of Clay at Roland Garros. The underdog must come out of his comfort zone and take groundstrokes early instead of trading blow for blow with Nadal from 10 meters behind the baseline. If Thiem does that, this could be competitive. If he cannot find the right balance of boldness and patience, he will be handled in swift fashion.

Impossible? Not quite. Improbable? That’s an understatement.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 13 games

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88 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Hey, give Thiem a break! First slam final against the 10 time champion? How many guys have won a match like that? (OK, JMDP USO 2010) How many times did Murray look like dogmeat in slam finals?

    • 2009 USO. And Fed had (still has) won that tournament 5 times.

      Absolutely Thiem deserves credit for making the final. However, I’m sure he’s disappointed in how he played.

    • You’re welcome, Mira. I’m very happy for you and other Rafa fans. You definitely want him to win much more than I want him to lose!

      • Hahaha..Thank u once again Joe!..Yeah..very happy for him to win…And now!..ONTO GRASS!..Be ready with a big bucket Joe!…Coz i think u will receive a lot of CONGRATS from me in the next month!Hehehe…

      • MA,

        Thanks for those articles! What a day! I am exhausted from it! Too much stress over two weeks!

        I am so glad that Rafa has stayed the same over the years. He’s still the same humble, decent, gracious human being who happens to be a master on the clay and a truly great champion for the ages!
        😍

        • Oh My God Nny!….So so so happy!!…But,not exhausted much!..I wish Rafa will skip Wimby,so he can rest & heal..and start NA HC with fresh body,mind & spirit…

          It’s fun LIVE blogging with u Nny!…And yeah!….RAFA IS TRULY AWESOME!!!!WOOOHOOOO!!!

    • MA,

      I am glad that I did not know what Becker said before the final! That would have set me off!

      Stupid Becker! He should know better! Rafa showed him!
      😘

      • Hehehe….Yes ma’am!!…I am very surprised how a tennis analyst/ex player himself who i’m sure can get very close with Rafa whether on court or elsewhere..and have an insight knowledge of Rafa’s tennis can give a very poor judgement about this…I mean,we fans only follow Rafa from TV or read about him through articles..but,still we all know that Thiem don’t have a chance whatsoever against Rafa…Unless something unexpected happen & thank God!it’s not serious….

    • I watched the replay of the final on german Eurosport. Becker is a co-commenter. Normally he does a good job. But he was totally biased against Rafa and obviously wanted Thiem to win – maybe because he is a good friend of Thiem’s coach who has been his coach, too, for a short time. Becher’s comment became shorter and shorter while the match progressed. The other commenter (Matthias Stach) was full of admiration for Rafa and especially acknowledged his intelligent play and how he outfoxed Thiem.

  2. The more times you think about it, the more ridiculous it sounds. ELEVEN TITLES each at a 500,1000 and a GS. Mind boggling consistency over a decade during perhaps one of the fiercely competitive era with two all time greats snapping at the heels.

    86 wins with just the two losses and just two five setters. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. No wonder the press/non-Rafans focus on the players who can beat him and who have beaten him since it is the only thing that can help them get clicks. Extolling his brilliance does not mean you are saying much since pretty much everything there is to say has been said.

    What an absolute privilege to be able to see the genius at work!!

  3. Rafa should not skip grass. He may go far this year if he gets his serve working ..

    How can they change clay composition…it’s what defines them..change for whom and why…

    I don’t think the French federation or RG organizers like Guy Forget dislike Rafa…yesterday when he had the cramp the whole medical team came out..not just 1 doctor…and change for whom ? Fed? Why ? He has pulled the plug on them 3 years in a row now and he does not play Paris masters either…

  4. Joe…you finally admitted you desperately want him to lose…it was evident in all your posts where you played up his opponents non stop. Even post match you kept saying his opponent arguably played a set better n should have won. I did not want to comment on your obvious negative bias towards Rafa till he wins . Credit to you though for always using decent language n not making any inflammatory remarks..

    Btw Jim courier did not show his face too after the win..he has been predicting Rafa losing from 4th round ..marterer beating Rafa in upset of the decade he said 🙂

    • Sanju, it’s no secret that I usually (not always) root for Nadal’s opponents, and always on clay. I’m not sure exactly why, but fan is short for fanatic, and who we cheer for is not exactly a rational decision. Obviously that affects my analysis, as it does for anyone. I try to control for bias, but I’m sure I don’t always succeed.

      Would you criticize those who always want Fed to lose? Augusta, Lucky, and probably most Rafa fans (that is, most regular contributors) on this site fall into that category, I would think.

      About Nadal’s clay season, obviously the bottom line is that he won four tournaments including RG, and lost only one match. Nevertheless, it’s fairly clear to me that he’s not at the level he was last year. The RG final is as good a comparison as any. Last year he played the very best clay tennis I have ever seen. This year’s match was very good, but I didn’t think it was unbeatable. Yes, I thought Thiem had real chances in that first set, though I didn’t say he should have won, even won the set, certainly not the match.

      Thanks for the recognition that I try always to use decent language and not to gratuitously insult others.

      • Yes it was clear his level was not as impeccable as last year but we need to realise he is coming off an injury and after 30..ups and downs in form are the norm. He dominated the RG tourney only in 08, 10, 17 where he did not drop a set and possibly even 2012 where only set lost was against Novak in final. Rest all his 7 victories, he has lost sets and that is natural.

        To be honest he far exceeded my expectations and given his injury layoff I certainly never expected him to stay No 1 at end of clay and win 4 titles.

        • Sanju, I’m the opposite of you. I expected Rafa to be fresh because of the injury break and I expected a lot from Rafa on clay. Rafa didn’t disappoint even when his serve was subpar, and he’s good enough to beat anyone and everyone, losing only five sets of tennis on clay this year, not bad for a guy who’s having serving woes, and barely hitting 60% first serve in.

          Rafa need not be as good as his 2017 in order to win his clay titles and especially at the FO, because he’s simply very far ahead of the competition and even damp cloudy or hot humid conditions would not stop him. Some of his matches looked close because he let his nerve overwhelmed him at times, not that he couldn’t play great tennis,

      • Joe Smith, it’s fine with me that you root against Rafa most of the time. It’s your privilege and we cannot be all fans of the same players, and I’m sure we have many common views and interests as far as many other subjects are concerned. Tastes simply vary. While I appreciate his phenomenal tennis, I personally cannot stand Federer for some reason. I’m bored by his style of play and I don’t care a lot for him personally. But that’s just me. Why should I dislike people who don’t share my idiosyncrasies? If anything it’s my loss, since Fed is so uber successful. I would enjoy tennis a lot more if I liked Fed 😉
        That said, I have been an ardent tennis fan a long time before Rafa arrived on the scene, and I will be a tennis fan after his retirement, although I don’t have a young player ATM whom I really like. While he is good for German tennis I cannot warm towards Zverev for some reason.
        My all time favorite was Guga Kuerten super career was tragically short but with a few brilliant highlights. And like him, I’m very glad that his career didn’t coincidence with Rafa’s, lol! Although I would really have liked to See a clay-court encounter of prime Guga with prime Rafa. I suspect that Rafa would’ve been physically too strong for Guga. But Guga had also a high level of tennis intelligence. One of my fondest memories is the 2004 FO encounter between Guga and Fed who was already a slam winner and the undisputed No 1 at the time. But Fed had no chance against an already subpar Guga. And this loss would haunt Fed until 2009, because it would have been a terrific chance for a FO title early in his career since the competition wasn’t overly daunting. This would change the very next year, when Rafa started his reign.

        • Littlefoot, it sounds like your (and others’ here) dislike for Federer is much greater than mine for Nadal. In fact, I don’t dislike him at all, and I quite like him as a person, at least as much as I do Federer.

          There are a few things about Nadal on the court -and only on the court- that irritate me, as they do many others. First and foremost is the amount of time he takes to serve. Yes, I know he suffers from some form of OCD, but I don’t at all think his routine is completely beyond his control. It’s notable that he takes even more time on big points, and I think part of it involves a bit of gamesmanship.

          Another thing is that I simply don’t like his style of play. I have to admit this is less true now than it used to be. He is less of a grinder, more willing to go on the attack, and more willing to use his awesome net game, than he used to be. On the whole, however, I find his style a bit boring.

          Finally, and this is truly irrational, I don’t like his sneer on the court, which (to me) adds to a general feeling that he is a bit of a bully. I recently watched (for the first time) Nadal and Fed’s Laver cup doubles match. The difference in his facial expression was remarkable; he smiled, laughed, and the sneer was nowhere to be seen. To me he looked like a different person and it has made me like him more as a player. Go figure!

          • Joe, I do not know if I really dislike Fed more than you dislike Rafa, You listed quite a few specific reasons after all why you cannot warm to him. But I already said that it is a matter of personal preferences and one cannot argue about taste.

          • I guess I find nothing to dislike, and much to like, about him as a person. He seems genuinely humble, for one, which contrasts sharply (to me) with his persona on court.

          • That’s a pretty accurate descripion of the way I view Nadal , as well,Joe. I find his physical style unappealing and on court demeanour/loud grunting is like he’s trying to rub salt .
            And Ive described him as a bully before. When his main weapons arent working, he can go to pieces mentally.

          • I also posted some positive things about Rafa, such as he’s a great guy off court, but for some reason they disappeared

          • Yes, Al, I think Nadal’s mental toughness is somewhat over-rated for the reason you mention, and I’ve occasionally wondered if some of his injuries on court have a psychological aspect to them. There’s a dual aspect to his on-court personality: either uber-confident, almost to the point of bullying, when things are going well; or sometimes very lacking in confidence when they’re not.

    • Sanju, “Jim Courier” isn’t all that knowledgeable, lol! He really thought that Cecchinato had a good chance against Thiem, and could then possibly even trouble Rafa in the final. I believe that Cecchinato had his few hours in the limelight and that we won’t see many more heroics. And he might still receive a ban for match fixing…
      That said, I agree with others that Rafa’s level was nowhere near his Last year’s level. He never seemed to be as self assured and casually relaxed as last year. These last few lengthy injury breaks have taken their toll. But we could argue that defending every single clay court point is therefore even more remarkable! He did with his experience and superior intelligence. I’m a bit worried nevertheless. He served so effortlessly well last year. What happened from Madrid onwards? Maybe, we will learn one day what troubled him.
      However, without an effortless and effektive serve I don’t see a lot of chances for the grass court season. But maybe he can regain some strength for the outdoor hardcourt season. And since he defended all his clay court points and for now leads the race to London by a fairly big margin, he should be much more relaxed for the rest of the season. And from now in Der and Zverev have to defend a few points, too.
      I was a bit alarmed by a casual throughaway sentence during an Eurosport Interview. Rafa said that he will decide with his team IF HE WILL COME BACK NEXT YEAR TO PARIS! I thought at first that I had misunderstood – but that’s what he said. Now, If Rafa is healthy I don’t doubt that he will be ready to defend his title and get a Shot at the Duodecima. Rafa will be playing as long as his body allows him to play on a high level. I interpreted this sentence as a tacit admission that not everything was totally fine and dandy during this year’s FO.
      I’m not trying to spread doom and gloom after Rafa’s remarkable achievement. If anything, we should celebrate and appreciate him even more – exactly because things might’ve been more difficult than we were aware of.

      • littlefoot says AT 11:59 AM: “I was a bit alarmed by a casual throughaway sentence during an Eurosport Interview. Rafa said that he will decide with his team IF HE WILL COME BACK NEXT YEAR TO PARIS! I thought at first that I had misunderstood – but that’s what he said.”
        ===

        Hmm. It’s difficult to believe that Rafa said this before seeing evidence (video/transcript ).
        .
        At his post-final press conference, Rafa was asked a question about his plans for the GRASS season and he answered that he would speak with his team & make a decision in the next couple of days.

        Question: “…can you tell us how you think you will be going into the grass court season and when you think you will first hit on grass?”
        RAFAEL NADAL: “Difficult for me to think about it now. I had long and mentally tough clay court season, of course, because I played almost all the matches possible after coming from an injury. So was a demanding two months for me.
        …I have to come back to speak with my team. Of course decide what’s better for my body. No, that’s the main thing always.
        I would love to be playing in as many places as possible, but you understand I need to check how I feel in the next couple of days. Of course is a drastic change from clay to grass. And I did it in the past when I was much younger, quicker, because I played back to back.
        But it’s time to check how I feel in the next couple of days.”

        https://youtu.be/VNEASMHdpwc

        And question about playing at RG next year:
        Question: “…You [Rafa] think you’re coming back next year and doing it again and again and again?”
        RAFAEL NADAL: “…I am just trying to keep enjoying, and I gonna keep playing until my body resist, and my happiness still high playing tennis…”

        • This article written by Rafael Plaza (a trusted journalist who regularly writes articles about Rafa & his team) is based on Rafa’s interview he gave to three Spanish publications on Monday morning:

          https://www.elespanol.com/deportes/tenis/20180611/rafael-nadal-nunca-pretendido-gustarle-mundo/314219253_0.html

          There is no word in the article that Rafa “will decide with his team if he will come back next year to Paris.”

          An excerpt about playing at RG (Via Google Translate):

          Question: “Aren’t you feeling the pressure to win whenever you come to Paris?”
          Rafa: “I am 32 years old and the next time I come to play in Paris I will be 33. You can not take for granted absolutely anything at any time of your life, but less when you are of an advanced age. Honestly, I’m not afraid of that.…”

          • Augusta, you can choose to believe or not to believe me. But I heard himself say this loud and clear. There was no way to misinterpret this.
            We simply have to was and see. For me it is an indication that not everything might’ve been well during this year’s FO.

          • Augusta, I’m not just having this conversation with you. You can believe or not believe me. It’s up to you. I heard what I heard.
            Like Mira Andi I want to share information with everybody here. It was a short live interview in English on German Eurosport with one of their reporters. I highly doubt that someone put it up on YouTube. But the Metro article seems to corroborate the statement.
            That said, I wouldn’t overinterpret Rafa’s statement. It was made shortly after the match. The idea to defend the title for the umpteen’s time might’ve seemed daunting, considering all his past injuries and sacrifices. He was also very evasive as far as the grass season is concerned.

          • littlefoot says AT 4:32 PM: “I want to share information with everybody here.”

            ===
            That’s exactly what I want to read: facts (& sources).

          • Augusta my darling!..u can’t keep doing this to us u know!…u can’t keep harrassing us with unnecessary little things just bcoz u’ve got head ache when u read the so called imaginary stories!

            It was like someone gave u a…a..a burger…and u keep harassing them by asking..”Hey!this burger is handmade or footmade?If it’s footmade,i don’t want to eat!”….How the hell we know that burger is handmade @ footmade!..We have to try it first before we know the truth augusta!..If it’s feel like sandy @ dusty,then it is made by foot…if it’s taste delicious..then voila!…it is made by hand!…There!…And please..stop harassing littlefoot will u?He rarely come here as it is…and i love reading his post too!

          • Mira Andi, thanks, you are sooo funny, and you understand to make things sound less harsh.
            In the end it’s not so important. We discussed what we heard and read, and we will have to wait and see what happens. That’s it☺

          • littlefoot says AT 4:32 PM: “It was a short live interview in English on German Eurosport with one of their reporters.”
            ===

            Hmm. One British publication writes that Rafa said this when he met the Mayor of Paris on Monday.
            I doubt that German Eurosport showed it.

          • Augusta, could you please stop this?? This is getting ridiculous. Are you aware that you basically accuse me of making this up? Rafa may have said the same thing on more than one occasion, you know! Which would make it even more interesting…
            But as I said: you are free to reject and ignore this tidbit. I’m not having this conversation just with you. And I’m finished with this discussion now. You would probably want a signed statement if I had this info from a private conversation with Rafa 😉

          • Mira Andi says AT 7:17 PM: “u can’t keep harrassing us with unnecessary little things”
            ===
            Hmm. I have no idea who are these “we” and what your personal problem is.

            I prefer facts over fiction, that’s all.

          • Augusta, as I said, let’s stop this. It’s not even worth getting into this too deeply. But if you want to verify this, you could ask the Mayor of Paris, lol!

          • littlefoot AT 7:56 PM,

            Hmm. Should I ask whether German Eurosport was at the Mayor’s residence?

          • I don’t know augusta…It’s there..and i just wanna share that piece of news with Rafans here…Whether it’s true or not…like littlefoot says…we have to wait & see k?

    • Trolls like Jim Courier are not here to talk tennis or enjoy discussions with other forum members. If someone has to trash a player and his fans relentlessly, then they obviously don’t have much of a life. Happy people who are fulfilled don’t waste their time with that kind of toxic negativity.

      Trolls are also cowards. When they are shown up to be wrong, then they disappear. Rafa winning his 11th title in RG and making more history, made this vicious troll go away. That is a good thing!

  5. Rafa deserves to be the last player to win on Phillipe Chartrier before it’s bulldozed today to be replaced by a new court.

    Vamos!

      • Sanju, it is! The news are out that they would change the surface. Apparently players have been complaining about the clay and the roof is just exuse to change the clay composition and to reduce the size of the PC.

        Even though it just the rumors somehow I am convinced it will be proven true…

        • They have always changed the clay composition from time to time. But I also fear that they will change the dimensions and reduce the space behind the baseline which made Chatrier so comfortable for Rafa…
          I highly doubt that the French will replicate everything as it was – and even if they celebrated him this year and Last year, too, I’m sure they are really longing for a new champion after all these years of Rafa-dominance.

        • Natashao AT 10:07 AM,
          littlefoot AT 11:28 AM,

          I get a headache when reading imaginary stories. I prefer facts over fiction.

          • Augusta, not everything you dislike has to be necessarily imaginary!
            But, yes, we have been speculating. What will or will not happen eventually – we don’t know.

  6. What caught my attention was when Rafa spoke to the crowd at the trophy ceremony. It’s on my recording. At the end he said – I hope to be back next year. That made me a little concerned because he would usually say – see you next year.

    We don’t know what is going on in Rafa’s mind right now. I think they s year was very hard for him, coming back from another injury. He was amazing in coming back from a few months off and managing to duplicate what he did last year. But we don’t know the cost of doing this again.

    Rsfa has nothing left to prove. I want him to keep playing and winning slams, but it is about how much more his body can take. We will have to wait and see what happens

    • NNY, I agree with your observations.
      To me something in Rafa’s behavior felt differently this year.
      But I guess, that eventual decisions will be made based on the development within the next year. Rafa has arrived at a point where nothing can be taken for granted.

      • littlefoot,

        I have no problem with you sharing what you heard on an interview. We are free to share information here about Rafa. I posted above about what Rafa said after the match during the trophy ceremony. I am not trying to read too much into it. We don’t know what will happen. But Rafa can’t play forever. This latest injury caused him to miss two Masters tournaments back-to-back. That has not happened since much earlier in his career. Injuries are more difficult to deal with as you get older in this sport. Rafa is the one who has to go through the pain, the rehab and hard work to come back. So he gets to decide when enough is enough.

        It’s a year away. We don’t have to worry about it now. I do think something felt different this year. That’s why I was so stressed. I wanted him to win because I did not know how many more times he could do it.

        I agree with you that nothing can be taken for granted with Rafa now. We have been so blessed to see him get back to #1 again sbd win three more slams. We should enjoy it an later be grateful for as long as we have him in the sport.

        I also hope Rafa fans don’t get on each other over this. It’s been wonderful sharing this latest win with other Rafa fans. Let’s just stay in the moment and be happy about it!

        • NNY and other Rafafans, you know what I also enjoyed about Rafa’s latest triumph? That he went into the FO as the No 1 ranked player and that he was therefore able to lift the trophy as the No 1 in the world. It may be a small detail in the grand scheme of tennis history. But it was somehow symbolic. I really hope his body will allow him a few more years of successful tennis. But if this would’ve been bis last match ever, it would also be fine with me. I wish that Rafa can leave tennis eventually on such a high note.

    • We also don’t know Rafa’s private situation. His girlfriend might’ve something to say about future developments as well. Novak, Roger and Andy all have kids already. We simply don’t know about Rafa’s private plans – which is ok. I like how he keeps private things private. But his private live exists nevertheless and most certainly will influence his career decisions to a certain extent.

  7. littlefoot,

    I remember when Rafa was in his slump and struggling with injuries. I thought to myself – I don’t want it to end like this. Not on a low note. I was so afraid that he would just call it a career.

    You talked about it ending on a high note. I hope it goes that way. I also agree that it’s fitting for Rafa to win his 11th RG and also be the number one player in the world. It makes it even more special. Rafa is at the top of this sport and it is richly deserved.

    I very much hope that Rafa will have a few more years if tennis in him. But I am mindful of the passage of time. I believe that Rafa will know when it’s time. For now I am just along for this unbelievable ride. It’s been something special.

  8. Rafa’s said it many times. He’ll retire when playing and competing no longer makes him happy. He doesn’t know when that will be. Rafa does not play for money or slams or ranking points, great as these things are. He plays for “happiness” and if winning an Olympics medal in doubles makes him happy he’ll do it and rejoice. But Rafa also knows that real happiness is with friends and family. Toni once said, during the time that Rafa’s parents were separated “Rafa would give back all the titles to have his family back.”

  9. I will say this for Nadal: he is a young (to me) man who has his priorities straight. By that I mean that he seems to understand the proper place of tennis in his life. It is obviously important but not more important that his health or his family. The signs suggest that one or both of the latter may mean that he won’t keep playing for too much longer.

    Even though I’m not a fan, I don’t want Nadal to retire when he’s still this good. I’d like to see him play for a few more years, even though I don’t think he will. And I certainly like to see some more Fedal matches, and one at RG above all. Maybe with the reduced court size Fed would have a better chance.

  10. You’ve made a lot of predictions, Joe. Now I’ll make one. Federer will never play Roland Garros (or any of the Euro clay court tournaments) again. It may have something to do with him feeling he just can’t win there but I think it has more to do with him needing rest going into Wimbledon. He’s marvelous for his age but he’s not getting any younger and tennis is not getting any easier.

    • Yes, I think you’re probably right, Ramara. I really thought he would play this year, based on some of the things he said and a calendar year slam being in play. But he seems to have made the judgment that it’s too hard on his body, so each year makes it less and less likely. The possible exception is if he decides, at the beginning of a given year, that this is his last; maybe then he’ll play a farewell tournament.

      • Calendar slam in play for Fed?? Ha ha!

        If he couldn’t do it during his peak or prime, he’s not going to do it now, Joe! The closest person to do it was Djoko and he was much younger than Fed is now, and yet he failed.

        • Well, after the AO he was the only male player for whom it was even a theoretical possibility in 2018; that’s all I meant.

  11. Hey did Rafa just win RG . Going by mood of this thread past 3 days, seems like he did not ..everyone is discussing if he will play next year etc. We Rafa fans are habituated to keep worrying looks like. And Fed fans still nurse hope of Fed beating Rafa at RG with reduced court size and all external help 🙂

    Novak also said 7 days back if he will play grass or not is a question, he is back to taking wild card for Queens and playing..Fed also said in his AO 17 speech that hope to see you next year and kept urging Rafa to keep playing.. it was construed that he is hanging his racquet last year..never happened.. Time will tell when Rafa will stop.if he said I am not sure about grass and I will check with my team or hope to see you next year etc..he also said I hope to keep fighting to reach 20 though its not on my mind..Toni himself said Rafa can win more RG…so there are statements reflecting the other side too..lets see how it plays out..JUst chill for now 🙂

    • The tension and stress last 2 weeks wasnt less (I personally was )..so no stress now till the next slam which is good 2 weeks away 🙂

    • Sanju, the somewhat gloomy or rather contemplative mood was created by a few sentences which were said by Rafa after winning the trophy. To me he also seemed to be more thoroughly physically and mentally exhausted than exuberant after he had completed the truly herculean feat of defending every single one of his many clay court points. But I agree with you that we shouldn’t overinterpret what he said. The prospect of being expected to go on a “Mission Impossible” or rather “Mission Duodecima” all over again next year may have seemed too daunting right after winning the 11th RG title, and he might not have been in the mood to promise anything. But the outlook may well be completely different after a short rest and when he found time to thoroughly enjoy the successful outcome of “Mission Undecima”. I expect him to come back to Paris next year – if his body is up to the task.
      I don’t understand, though, why some still believe Rafa is able to be a serious contender at Wimby. He may well advance further than in the last years if he gets a decent draw. But while reaching the second week is certainly not out of the question, there will simply be too many opponents in the latter rounds who are far better equipped for grass court tennis than Rafa is right now. Sadly he isn’t the splendid grass court player anymore who reached five finals and won two titles, one of them by winning the “best tennis match ever played”. Nobody can take that slice of grass court glory away from him! But his current serving woes – which are still a bit of a mystery to me, since he served so well before it dropped off sharply after his Madrid exit – don’t bode well for Wimby. It’s a testament to his prowess and intelligence that he nevertheless won Rome and Wimby while dropping only four sets! I don’t have high expectations for Wimby, although I don’t exclude that I will be pleasantly surprised. From a fan perspective this mindset will turn Wimby into a far more relaxing experience than the whole claycourt season 😉
      As to the idea that Roger will ever be a serious contender on clay and for the RG title – you got to be kidding! That train has left the station a while ago. Clay is a very demanding surface where you need a lot of body balance and added energy for managing the sliding and the longer rallyes. Even Fed cannot just waltz in after a complete clay hiatus of two or more years and expect that his GOATness will carry him into the latter rounds. To be fair – Roger himself never said anything like this. The speculations concerning a possible calendar slam this year came from some seriously deluded journos like Jon Wertheim who believed that a subpar or injured Rafa could mean Roger had a decent chance to win another RG trophy. That idea is silly insofar as it was based on the idea that only Rafa might stand between Roger and another FO title. But this is disrespectful towards all the other players who are now able to hurt Roger on clay. The times when Fed was the second best clay courter are long gone. I only expect him to be back in Paris when he embarks on a farewell tour before retiring.

      • Correction: I wanted to say:”….It’s testament to his prowess and intelligence that he nevertheless won Rome and RG while dropping only four sets”.

      • Littlefoot, I have to disagree with you that a healthy Federer couldn’t contend for the RG title, even now. The main reason he doesn’t play it, imo, is combination of the fear of injury and tiring himself out for grass, where his chances are obviously better. He hasn’t played for a long time, of course, but his last two outings weren’t bad. Lost in 2015 QF to Wawrinka, who imo played even better in that match than he did against Novak in the final. And Fed lost in 2014 to a talented Gulbis who played the match of his life. Since Fed is playing better now than he was in 2014-15, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be one of a handful of contenders behind Rafa at RG.

        • We have to agree to disagree on this, Joe. I think the idea that Fed could be a serious contender for the RG title at his age and after the long clay abstinence, is as delusional as the idea that Rafa can win another Wimby trophy, lol! Both are still able to cause some damage at those tournaments – but winning the title? Nope! The last quarterfinal of Fed at RG will be four years ago in 2019! And Fed knows it. Otherwise he would’ve played. Since this year Rafa and Fed were No 1 and No 2, they could’ve met only in the final. If Fed had felt like a serious contender for the latter rounds he would’ve played, since there was always the small chance that someone would take out Rafa before the final, and he wouldn’t have to play him. But Roger had made his decision to skip the clay courts even before it became clear that Rafa’s clay court prowess wasnt compromised after all. Fed must’ve felt that the gain would be too small compared to the risk of exhaustion and injury. I think he is right and is doing exactly the right thing. he manages his schedule really well.

          • Well, I agree about the assessment of risk of injury. And he would almost certainly be compromised for grass even if he didn’t get injured. But I don’t see what the long absence from clay would have to do with it. Obviously he’d have to play a warm-up, and he would have practiced on clay beforehand. The main concern would be injury, not forgetting how to play on clay.

            I don’t think you can compare Fed’s late career record at RG to Nadal’s at wimby. Even in his worst year, quality-wise (2013) Fed managed to make the QF, losing to Tsonga. And that was when Fed was almost the same age as Nadal is now.

            Compare that to the players Nadal has lost to at wimby since 2012 (when he was 26): Rosol, Brown, Darcis (all R1 or R2), then Kygrios and Muller in R4.

            Had Fed committed to play RG this year *and* been able to avoid injury, I think his objective chances of winning would have been much higher than Nadal’s will be if he plays wimby in a few weeks.

          • Yes, but Rafa is (probably) not yet at the age where he needs to skip tournaments because he feels he can’t win them. He’ll play at Wimbledon, if fit, because he LOVES playing there. He may well skip Queens again, as he has the past few years. Not because he can’t or won’t win there but because he needs the extra rest. Winning 4 out of 5 tournaments is a tremendous strain.

        • Joe..Fed who has not played on clay for 3 years..has last won RG in 2009 benefiting from a Rafa upset..reached a RG final last in 2011 is a contender for RG but Rafa cannot win any non clay slam as per you? How biased are you? Cmon please be more objective and fair and dont wear Fed rose tinted glasses always..

          It is even surprising that Fed is always considered more favourable to win USO when he last won there in 2008 ..He reached just finals twice in 2009 and 2015 post that…Rafa won thrice after 2008 and reached a final too 2011..yet he cannot win a non clay slam..

          The bias is just so shocking…

          • I wouldn’t say that Nadal is not a contender at any non-clay slam. He might win one; I just don’t think he will. Nor do I think Federer will win RG again, but he would have been a contender if he had played in 2017-18. Going forward, I would rate Fed’s hypothetical chances at RG higher than Nadal’s chances at Wimby, but lower than his chances at AO or USO. I don’t think there’s any bias there.

            Regarding USO, consider that Fed lost three matches he easily could have won, in 2009-2011, and lost to the eventual champ in 2014-15. 2013 and probably last year he was injured; every other year he’s been in the mix.

            At present, Fed is still a slightly higher favourite than Nadal at USO, imo (and according to oddsmakers).

      • littlefoot says AT 8:33 AM: “I don’t understand, though, why some still believe Rafa is able to be a serious contender at Wimby.”

        ===

        Because ‘some’ are his loyal fans.

  12. Why are so many people confident that Fed is a lock for Wimby? I am not able to understand..Fed is far less a lock for Wimby that Rafa is at RG…

    Personally I hope Rafa goes far this year in Wimby..he is rested as he barely played first 3 months..clay though he won 4 ..no long gruelling matches though mentally he maybe fried with all the pressure…

    Frankly I am not bothered if Rafa wins another RG..he has won enough there..I want a non clay slam and though I would love Rafa to cross 20..I personally see probability of him doing that as less given his injury concerns and style of play..I would personally be very happy with 18..I think he has gone far ahead of Novak now and NOvak winning 5 more to touch Rafa looks daunting..

    Though one can never say anything..When Rafa won 14th in 2014 ..everyone said touching Feds 17 was certain..we all know what happened later with Rafa..when Novak won 12th in 2016 and was dominating..everyone said crossing Rafa was a certainty and there were talks of touching Fed..we all know what happened with Novak then..so things can change very fast in tennis..nothing can be taken forgranted and no one is a lock for any title (even Rafa wasnt for RG , there can only be favs..no locks)

    • Wise words, Sanju. Hard to predict the future, and many have been wrong in the recent past regarding these guys.

  13. Rafas new potent BH can cause serious damage on grass…has anyone thought about that? Hope he just fixes his serve though as it will be a liability on grass

    • I like your optimism about wimby, and I totally agree that best for Nadal’s legacy would be to win some more non-clay slams. I think Wimbledon is the least likely place, though. Apart from the serve, which you mention, his movement just isn’t that good on grass any more. I agree with you, however, that Fed is no lock for Wimby, certainly not now when he’s yet to have played a grass court match. Let’s see what his form is over the next few weeks.

      • Joe, I agree with that assessment. i don’t think at all that Fed is a lock for Wimby. And if I had a choice as a fan, I would prefer that Rafa wins some more non-clay slams rather than additional RG titles. His clay legacy hasn’t feet of clay at all but is set in durable stone, no matter what. I also believe that an additional non-clay slam – if it will materialize – won’t happen at Wimby. The US Open are the most likely option.

  14. Rafa’s 11 titles out of 13 and only 2 lost matches in RG speak for themselves, no-one is as dominant in any given tournament but Fed is nearly as dominant in Wimby.
    If he can’t be considered a lock is because an upset is more likely to happen on grass, where the game quicker and much more reliant on a potent and accurate serve.
    But, he’s almost a lock – much more likely to win Wimby than anybody else, Rafa included

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