French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

June 8, 2018 Ricky Match previews 428

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“It was almost impossible to beat him.”

That’s what Juan Martin Del Potro said of Rafael Nadal following their French Open semifinal showdown on Friday, which Nadal dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. And that’s how it’s been throughout Nadal’s career at Roland Garros, where he is 85-2 lifetime with losses only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015).

Dominic Thiem is next in line for a well-deserved shot at Nadal, as the tour’s two best clay-courters over the past two seasons will battle for the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday afternoon. Since the end of 2016, Thiem is the only player who has defeated Nadal on clay–and he has done it twice. The Austrian pulled off a 6-4, 6-3 upset at the 2017 Rome Masters before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 a few weeks ago in Madrid. Having also won 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) two years ago in Buenos Aires, Thiem is one of only three men who have beaten Nadal at least three times on clay in their entire careers (also Djokovic and Gaston Gaudio).

It is the current world No. 1, however, who leads the overall head-to-head series–the entirety of which has been played on clay–by a 6-3 score. Nadal is 5-2 at Thiem’s expense dating back to the 2016 Monte-Carlo Masters, with a trio of victories in 2017 followed by a recent 6-0, 6-2 rout in Monte-Carlo.

Although the Spaniard has succumbed to Thiem three times on what is obviously the preferred surface for both players, Roland Garros has always been a whole different story. In addition to his 85-2 tournament record, Nadal is an unbelievable 110-2 for his career in best-of-five matches on clay. Bidding for his 11th French Open title, the top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, Maximilian Marterer, Diego Schwartzman, and Juan Martin Del Potro. After donating a set at the French Open for the first time since 2015 (his opener against Schwartzman), Nadal reeled off set scores of 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 against the two Argentines.

Thiem got over the hump that was two consecutive Roland Garros semifinal losses when he put an end to Marco Cecchinato’s incredible run 7-5, 7-6(10), 6-1 on Friday. The world No. 8 preceded that result with mostly routine defeats of Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori. Thiem is 24-4 on the red stuff in 2018, a mark that features titles in Bueonos Aires and much more recently in Nice to go along with a runner-up performance in Madrid.

“You know when you start the clay-court season that Dominic [is] one of these players that [has] the chance to win every tournament that he’s playing, and maybe even more here in Roland Garros,” Nadal noted.

“He’s a big favorite against everybody,” Thiem said of his opponent. “Still, I know how to play against him. I have a plan…. If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also (a) different story.”

Thiem, a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 loser in their semifinal contest a year ago, knows as well as anyone how difficult to take down the King of Clay at Roland Garros. The underdog must come out of his comfort zone and take groundstrokes early instead of trading blow for blow with Nadal from 10 meters behind the baseline. If Thiem does that, this could be competitive. If he cannot find the right balance of boldness and patience, he will be handled in swift fashion.

Impossible? Not quite. Improbable? That’s an understatement.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 13 games

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48 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  8. Vamooooossssdd! Genius at work! The King of Clay!

    ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

    Reply

  10. Congrats to Rafa fans. It will be interesting to see what is wrong with the wrists ; because there is some issue.

    But you dont beat wounded Rafa . Its his den , its his court. He is an heck of a athlete.

    Reply

  11. VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!

    I love this man!! “Just do it” and he just DOES it! The God-King of Clay! Now and forever.

    Every time I saw that Thiem “had a plan”, I thought “and you better have a back up plan and a few more behind that”….lol

    Reply

  12. Is it just me or the crowds & surrounding seems not like it used to?I mean…not like any other finals…lack of joy??

    Reply

    • They’re more worried about the impending thunderstorm than to feel the joy of this Rafa win! Also, this match has its highs and lows and honestly Thiem’s serve is letting him down.

      Rafa is really emotional out there, the crowd gives him a big round of applause and he’s crying with emotions, that shows how tough it is to win the trophy here again and it means so much to him to win it year after year. We/I criticized Rafa for this or that but he’s human and does make mistakes and feels anxious.

      It’s so good that both the men and women no.1s end up with the trophies and keep their no.1 rankings. Well done to both and especially to Rafa for winning it an incredible 11th time!

      PS. It’s so humid that Rafa’s hand was cramping, thankfully he managed to win the match; and, they managed the trophy ceremony well before any thunderstorm arrives.

      Reply

  13. So happy for Rafa for winning his 11th FO title, and in straight sets.

    I know Thiem couldn’t do the job, because he’s not as good as Fed or Djoko or Stan, or Ferrer on clay, Rafa no doubt has his serving problems and looks extra nervous this year but he’s still playing very good tennis on clay.

    Thiem looks a nice guy so I hope he wins the FO in future.

    Reply

  14. Now watch a poster coming and posting that Rafa was good but not that good and that Dom was the better player in the first and also the second.

    But what a player. 11 RG titles. Every year I think he cannot possibly repeat it next year.

    He has also managed to stay number one with truck load of points to defend. GOAT indeed!!!

    Reply

  17. Names apart from Rafa making a name this clay season
    1. Dominic Thiem- Only person to beat Rafa
    2. Martin Klizan – First person to break the streak of opponents winning less than 5 games in a set
    3. Fabio, Zverev- Set takers against Rafa prior to RG
    4. Diego Schwatzman – set winner against Rafa at RG

    Reply

  19. Ageism…

    @Dimonator: Ken Rosewell is #fired

    i don’t care how old he is. that was pathetic. if he’s too old to make sense, don’t have him at the trophy ceremony.

    Reply

    • Yes, very bad speech. Should have congratulated Theim, he has had a great run. Should not say bad about a loser who anyw

      Reply

    • Hawks

      You’re right – that is blatant ageism. Shame on you.

      I’m from a generation that was taught you must respect your elders even if they are gaga 🙂

      Anyway I doubt anyone actually pays attention to what the dignitaries say when they waffle on.

      PS: Rosewall was a special favourite of mine back in the fifties

      Reply

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