It will be No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 2 Rafael Nadal for the French Open title on Sunday afternoon at Roland Garros. Expert picks are back for a match that could hardly get any bigger.
Ricky Dimon: Nadal has quietly righted the ship in his recent head-to-head history with Djokovic heading into Sunday’s French Open final. “Quietly” in the sense that I expected to see Djokovic H2H dominance still in progress when I went to the ATP website for a refresher on their most recent meetings. Well, it turns out Nadal is a respectable 3-3 in their last six. His three wins were “quiet” in the sense that they came outside of Grand Slams and none was particularly competitive. Djokovic, on the other hand, famously triumphed 10-8 in the fifth set in the 2018 Wimbledon semis and in beatdown fashion in the 2019 Australian Open final. But that obviously isn’t to say that the Serb automatically has an edge in any Grand Slam. Results in SW19 and Melbourne–the Spaniard’s two worst majors–mean nothing when it comes to Roland Garros, where he is a laughable 99-2 lifetime. It is also worth noting that during this 3-3 H2H stretch, Nadal is 3-0 on clay and Djokovic is 3-0 on hard/grass. Sure, conditions aren’t quite as perfect as they usually are for Nadal at this event, but Court Philippe-Chatrier is actually playing relatively fast and high-bouncing–more than Lenglen and the outside courts in those departments. Nadal has not dropped a set through six matches, so he isn’t about to drop three in one match alone on Sunday. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5.
Cheryl Murray: The most prolific rivalry in the history of men’s tennis is about to add a 56th installment on Sunday. Ordinarily I would discuss current form (Nadal has looked more convincing over the fortnight), the head-to-head record (Djokovic has been far more dominant in recent years), and the surface. But in this case, current form and the head-to-head probably won’t mean very much. When they play, that stuff seems to melt away. But surface? Yeah, that matters. The fact that they’re on clay in Paris favors Nadal. There’s a reason he is 99-2 (because seriously, how ridiculous is that statistic?) with 12 titles, and it’s not because he’s extraordinarily lucky. Although the fact that Djokovic gave Nadal a shellacking in their last slam final in Melbourne is a tick in the Serb’s column, in the end this is Nadal on Chatrier in the final…and I just can’t pick against him. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): At first thought, the Djokovic disqualification at the US Open would allow him to prepare more adequately for the “fall” clay court season of 2020. That it most certainly did, as the Serb would record his fifth title in Rome. Nadal’s early exit in Rome at the hands of Schwartzman did provide him with key information on the current game of the Argentine, as he was easily able to defeat him in their rematch in the Roland Garros semifinals. Both Nadal and Djokovic recorded two bagel sets in the opening three rounds in Paris and from there Nadal continued his blistering pace, winning all 18 sets contested to date. Djokovic will put an end to that impressive string in the final, but on Sunday he will look at the scoreboard and see that he is one set all despite playing exceptional tennis and probably feeling that he should have a two sets to none lead. Nadal yet again prevails as he successfully holds off a valiant and determined effort from Djokovic throughout the match. Nadal in 4: 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.
Rafa in 5.
The cooler conditions on court with approx 8 percent slower court speed and lower bounce of nadal’s forehand(2-3 inches lower bounce than previous years) will help djokovic. Rafa will need to be sharp and focussed throughout the match to keep novak at bay. I am expecting a marathon. Rafa has been slightly more solid in RG this year with Novak making more errors than usual in his last 2 matches in RG.
Vamos Rafa !
Djokovic is the best player in the world and greatest player to play the sport. Being underrated because he isn’t liked. Nadal is way beyond his prime.
I agree that Nadal is past his prime and Djokovic has had the longest period at the top. However, prime Federer 2004-07 I have never seen a better player.
That makes no sense! How is Rafa way past his prime when he is only 1 year older than Novak! And if Rafa is way past his prime what does that say for the rest of the tour that him and Novak, granddaddies of the tour, are in the finals?!!
I don’t think Novak is underrated, he is the best tennis player in the past decade but unfortunately not many ppl, except his fans, care about that, lol!
Yeah, You really know what you are talking about, don’t you? LMFAO. Way beyond his prime, huh? Many have just described this as one of, if not the best performance by Rafa ever, considering the cool weather, the new ball, the closed roof AND his opponent. He gave Jerkovic one fewer game than Rafa got in the Aussie Open 2019. So take that, Djoker. Rafa made 14 errors total THE WHOLE MATCH. Jerkovic made 52. Rafa had a total of 6 errors through two sets. Six. And he closed it out AT LOVE, WITH AN ACE.
RAFA and ROGER at 20……..THE GREATEST EVER.
VAMOS, RAFA!
As for the so-called beatdown in AO 2019, I know people will be hearing my violin strings yet again, but there was more to the way Rafa offered no resistance. He said on Spanish TV after the match that he was not physically fit after his foot surgery and abdominal injury at the end of 2018 which is why he performed so badly in the lead up to the FO, and playing against Djokovic in that state would be too physically demanding. So he was not in the mood for a gruelling 5 setter in the final which Djokovic would win anyway considering his physical state so it was better for him to lose quickly than stretch it out to 5 hours.
Having cleared up that point, I wish Rafa all the best tomorrow. As I don’t believe in predictions, I’m not going to make one.
Vamos Rafa!
As far as Rafa’s loss to Djokovic in the ATP Cup in Brisbane is concerned, the Spanish team played the first leg in Perth then had to travel across the continent to Brisbane for the final leg with no allowance made for the different time zones so the Spanish team were already at a disadvantage with jet lag. Even that loss to Djokovic should have an asterisk against it.
I believe Rafa is now 99-2 at RG. Going for the century on Sunday.
Novak has to bury RG Rafa Chatrier demons of 2012 2013 2014. Even when he beat Rafa in 2015, didn’t end up winning tournament.
Rome 2019 Final best reference point. Nadal in 4.
Wow I must say I’m surprised both picks were Nadal in 4, happy to hear it tho!
I never predict Rafa’s matches, I wish him to be healthy, fit and playing the best match at this FO!
Vamos Rafa! ❤️
Feeling confident natashao?
Btw I’m still waiting for your dream of second AO for Rafa to get realised 🙂
Sanju, me too!!! I don’t care how many RGs Rafa wins, I am just dying for him to win another AO!!!
Hoping for a great match tomorrow and that Rafa comes out victorious!!! VAMOS!!!!
Rafa has to win the first set and he needs to be more penetrative with that wing. I expect Nadal not able to guess Djoker’s quite a few shots as he has so many options. Djoker will play a lot of drop shots, get involved in net play but he is nowhere as strong as he was in his prime.
I thought Rafa was impressive in his SF against Diego and his last two matches should have prepared him somewhat for this match as both Sinner and Argentine looked to pummel his BH. Djoker BH is good but how his BH DTL works out will be the key as well. He will have his lapses and Nadal should be able to scrape through if weather is anywhere like Friday which looks to be the case.
Its tough to call, but would be surprised if Djoker pulls of a win.
Good to see you expecting rafa to win
Rafa did not win first set in 2014 final but won the match ..is first set that key ?
@Nadline10 always full of excuses 😔.
But you can’t dispute the reasons.
Wimbledon 2018 SF we all know the warped decision to complete the match under the roof in bright sunshine. Wimbledon has stitched Nadal up for the last 10 years with their unjust seeding formula which they’ve now decided to drop.
He lost both matches for very different reasons.At least the Wimbledon one was very close.
I’m not giving Djoko more than 50% chance of winning this one.The court isn’t as slow as expected.(There’s another critical physical factor)
I am putting money on Djokovic. If Rafa wins, I will be v. happy. If Djokovic wins, I will be richer. 🙂
I used to do that sort of thing, but I found it very hard to enjoy the match!
Djokovic in 5 sets. Nadal playing second tourny in 7 months while joker has been playing much longer hes in better match shape and his level is much higher. Nadal will put hp a fight but joker wants this title more this than nadal. Joker going for his second RG and he will do it with his incredible return and defense. My money is on djokovic. Goodluck!!!
I hope Rafa comes out aggressive from the off. Stefanos said he altered his tactics to play more conservatively for the first 2 sets then switched back to his normal aggressive style. I must say his lack of fitness in the fifth was pretty shocking for an elite 22 yr old athlete. Nole didn’t really win that battle, Stefanos just completely disappeared.
Every single factor favours Novak for this match: the weather, the ball, and most important the fact that he’s played 2 masters and a slam in the preceding period while Rafa came in with just 3 matches since February.
I honestly don’t know what level Rafa is capable of after having so little preparation. But as Rafa would say ” we gonna see… ” I don’t agree that Novak’s desire is greater than Rafa’s. Rafa will play with the same will and desire. Whether he can raise his game with so little preparation I don’t know.
I never make predictions before his matches.
The one thing I hope for above all is that Rafa doesn’t get nervous. I am still a bit freaked out by his walkabout in the third against Diego.
Vamos Rafa!
Without saying it .you said it amy that novak is fav 🙂
I think it’s not really proven now about weather…ball is not that low bounce seeing matches…there was some sun in sf major part..tomm 3 to 6 is looking clear ( can u check ) Carlos moya watched novaks sf…I’m sure he will take notes ..
Basically what has to happen n is destined will happen..if it’s destined rafa has to cross 20..he will
I said yesterday that I believed Rafa could raise his game to win sanju! I did mean that. But every single material factor to do with ball, weather, preparation favours Novak. That’s not my subjective opinion it’s objective fact which everyone keeps referring to. This is a list of so many material advantages that Novak really ought to win. At this level, the pressure is on him!!
I already checked the weather on 3 weather forecasts. It’s going to be colder, although probably clear, which means the court will be slower and the ball will bounce lower than on Friday. Yet more advantage for Novak. He has no excuse not to win…
Crazy tactics by Tsitsipas to play conservatively and for two sets! Against Djoko, Tsitsipas had to be aggressive, and Tsitsipas wasn’t smart enough to switch to his aggressive style once he lost the first set. He really lost the match there when he continued to play conservatively in the second set.
It’s poor strategy by the Tsitsipas camp, I wonder what they were thinking, trying to play conservatively to outlast Djoko, thinking that Djoko was injured?
I hope Rafa plays aggressively from the get go, just like each time he beat Djoko at the slam finals.
Yes lucky it’s very strange. Surely Carlos and Rafa will realise that!
If Stefanos had started off aggressive he could have won that match. He was bossing the rallies at the end of the fourth.
I already checked the weather on 3 weather forecasts. It’s going to be colder, although probably clear, which means the court will be slower and the ball will bounce lower than on Friday. Yet more advantage for Novak. He has no excuse not to win…
All I can say is, the sun must have been shining a lot at Roland Garros in the last 15 years for Rafa to have a 99-2 win/loss record there. Did the sun go down halfway through the 3rd set yesterday against Diego and came back up for the tiebreak?
ESPN expert picks for thE women’s title. Every single one of them picked Halep.
ESPN 2020 Roland Garros picks for women
No. 1 seed Simona Halep enters the French Open with a 9-0 record since tennis restarted, with titles on clay in Prague and Rome — and a 14-match winning streak that dates to February. Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images
Bembry: Halep. She won the French Open last year and is the clear favorite based on who’s not at this year’s tournament (Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty, Bianca Andreescu).
Bodo: Halep laid low during the pandemic, and her strategy was vindicated by her triumph in Rome. With Barty and Osaka out of the way, she has a clear path to the title.
Drysdale: Halep is solid, reliable and mentality strong.
Evert: Halep will win. She won two clay warmups and didn’t play the US Open so she’s fresh and eager. She moves well, is consistent and has the best clay-court combination.
Gilbert: I usually say 15-20 women can win it, and that is definitely possible. Halep comes in on a roll, winning two clay court titles, so I am going with the chalk call on this one — Halep to win her second French Open.
Hamilton: The 2018 winner Halep picked up the Italian Open earlier this week and is on a 14-match winning run. While Garbine Muguruza and Victoria Azarenka are also in the mix — and never rule out Serena Williams — Halep is in fine form and is my pick to land her third Grand Slam title.
Maine: Halep. The tournament’s top seed and 2018 champion hasn’t lost a match since the season resumed in August — winning 10 straight matches (all on clay) and earning the titles in Prague and Rome. And not only does she look to be in prime match shape, but her decision to skip the US Open may prove ingenious as there appears to be no one more prepared for the surface than her. She is the favorite, and she will prove exactly why throughout the fortnight.
Mouratoglou: Serena, because she is the greatest.
Shriver: Halep is your 2020 French Open winner. She stayed in Europe since the WTA Tour reopened and has not lost. She loves clay, is the best mover in women’s tennis on terre batteau and has won Roland Garros before.
Stevenson: Clay is the equalizer. Rosie Casals of the Original Nine, once told me to stay off clay during my career because I had specifically been trained on hard court. It does make a difference. Halep has been training and working for this one, and giving up the US Open only helps her body and resolve to put it all out there. The only misstep for her would be the lack of Grand Slam immediate match toughness. But her stature on the red clay outlasts all comers, including Serena. Although I’m always on Serena’s side. Remember, at the age of 9, Serena grew up practicing on clay. She understands the surface. I think her game suits the clay at this time in her life. She could be a surprise contender.
Stubbs: Halep. She’s been on clay the whole pandemic and goes into the French Open as a huge favorite.
As both sanju and lucky say, che sera sera…if Rafa loses it’s scarcely the end of the world! He can still come back and win slams including Rg next year played at its normal time.
What I don’t want to happen is Rafa getting nervy and playing below his real capabilities. That is upsetting and horrible to watch.
Last time they played on clay, Rafa beat Djokovic 60 46 61. Rafa hasn’t dropped a set yet, Djokovic has dropped 3 sets.
I guess we should all just listen to Novak’s coach and say Rafa has no chance against Novak because of the conditions. Yeah right! Rafa did not win twelve titles here playing all the time in ideal conditions. Anyone who underestimates Rafa risks looking the fool.
I am concerned more about the lack of match play for Rafa. Novak has had a lot more matches under his belt. That is more important than the conditions. It’s always tough to face Novak, who seems to get a shot of adrenaline every time he sees Rafa on the other side of the net. Rafa did get something out of the matches with Sinner and Diego. Is it enough? I don’t know. This is not the 2019 AO. It’s clay, not hardcourt. But whether Rafa is ready mentally and physically, I don’t know. It’s a given that he has to come out aggressive, but that’s easier said than done. His serve concerns me. Novak is a much better returner than Diego.
I know that Rafa will give it his best as always. Rafa is such a fighter that sometimes you just have to throw out everything else.
Nny I worry about what happened at the AO 19. Obviously there are big differences because it’s Nole’s best tournament and Rg is Rafa ‘s. But the circumstances are similar..Rafa hadn’t played for a while then and after the final he said he lacked confidence because he hadn’t been tested on the way to the final. Rafa is such a creature of habit, superstition and ritual that I worry he may feel the same at Rg without his warm up season. Has he been tested enough by Sinner and Diego? I don’t know..I would be a lot happier if he had had a real challenge which he has fought through.
amy,
I have thought quite a bit about the 2019 AO. That’s why I said the lack of match play is what concerns me most. Rafa was nowhere near ready for that match either physically or mentally. The one thing that does help is that this is clay. But will Rafa have the sheer physical conditioning to go at it with Novak. It us always such a tough battle with them.
I will always remember the 2013 RG semifinal between them. Rafa was down a break in that fifth set and he literally willed himself to raise his game to an otherworldly level. He played like a God. As good as Novak was, he was not good enough.
I don’t think either of them are at their best. But Novak is more match tough because he’s played longer. He always gets motivated when he sees Rafa on the other side of the net.
I am really ticked off at the bush league gamesmanship from Novak’s camp. It’s despicable. But Rafa has done some amazing things in his career. That’s why you never count him out.
I would have preferred that he had a gut check match before the final, but it is what it is. I would so love to see him get # 20 and tie Fed. Also his 13th title at RG. We will just have to watch and see what happens.
Nny, I saw an interview with Toni a few weeks ago. He listed the top 3 difficulties as he saw it for Rafa at Rg. The second was the lack of match play; the third was the conditions; the first was the existence of the virus itself. This surprised me but Rafa says that Toni knows him better than anyone. Toni said the fact of the virus itself made it difficult to concentrate on tennis. So I guess we can infer from this that Toni thinks Rafa’s attention to tennis is perhaps not what it might be usually.
amy,
Interesting that Uncle Toni thinks the virus is Rafa’s biggest difficulty. I had not thought about that. For myself, I made it clear that I did not want them to play under these conditions. Without a full stadium and the I going risk of the virus, I thought they should have waited until there is a vaccine.
I agree that Toni knows Rafa better than anyone. I can certainly understand why Rafa would be concerned. He knows there is risk involved.
It kind of puts it all in perspective with this pandemic being so devastating.
Even though Nadal won rather easily against Schwartzman I didn’t see him moving very fluently. I have a feeling that he will run out of steam sooner than Djokovic. Therefore it will be in Nadal’s best interest to come out with all guns firing. If Djokovic is able to move him from side to side I think he will win. If Nadal is able to dictate and mix his game then Nadal wins.
Neither of them is playing God mode at the moment ( even though Djokovic hasn’t lost a match yet this season)
Hey, where’s the “Nadal wins by default” option in the poll??? That’s my pick for the match.
Seriously now, this is as tough to call as always when they play, but I noticed that anyone favouring the serb says that Rafa is not as good this year for whatever reason. Not that Novak has finally mastered clay. So as always on clay it’s all in Nadal’s hands.
Since Moya took charge I don’t think that Rafa lost to Djokovic because the latter was in his head: he just did not play good enough. Their last Wimbledon encounter was almost a draw, and in the past they had a few others where literally a point made the difference. Now that I’m thinking, that’s Tony Nadal’s most important mistake: not being able to get Rafa over his Djokovic complex. What worked to determine the boy work even harder (praising his opponent and criticising his pupil) only ruined the man’s morale. Tony just did not realise that his little nephew grew up, or was unable to cope with it. But I am sure that Moya understands this all too well and maybe he already fixed it.
Nadal accepted that he’ not 20 anymore and he needs less training. He doesn’t really need that much warm-up, remember he almost won AO straight from the rehab (just ran out of steam in the end). Maybe at 34 he’s ready to accept this as well.
To win tomorrow, he just needs to embrace that he’s simply better than his rival on clay and he just needs to go out there, play his game and let the other guy do the struggling.
Rafa arrives to the final in fine condition. Neither untested nor tired (I am sure that he much prefers untested to tired BTW). He got and won the TBs Moya was talking about. He overcame huge serves and groundstrokes and also fierce defence. He beat back the last man to beat him.
I am sure that Djokovic is okay as well, although I fully expect him to complain about physical issues when things don’t go his way. I hope that he gets properly booed if this happens. He’s probably not that confident as usually, not after all the stupid things he’s done lately.
Sure, it’s rather cold tomorrow and the ball won’t jump that much (not that it ever really bothered the Serb). But it’s still clay and the ball spins; can’t be predicted that well. There is sun. There is wind (which Novak hates). If Rafa can’t hit winners due to slow conditions it will be worse for Djokovic.
Of course anything can happen especially in this rivalry. I just hope that Nadal plays his best game tomorrow and “good luck” to Novak to handle that.
Let’s try to assess how THE CONDITIONS (slightly heavier ball, cold temperature, potentially damp conditions) can impact both players:
Rafa (pros):
(i) More time on the ball to return serve and hopefully deprive Novak from earning free points behind his first serves.
(ii) more time to defend in rallies and we know Rafa’s probably the GOAT defender on clay
Rafa (Cons):
(i) Forehand DEFINITELY less effective and he won’t be able to get short balls from his opponent as easily as in their past RG encounters
(ii) His usual loopy ROS won’t be as effective and would require him to change his trajectory somewhat. We saw he made adjustments against Diego
(iii) Serve would probably be more vulnerable due to the slow/lower bouncing conditions
Novak (Pros):
(i)More time on the ball to take on the Nadal forehand. It will be in his strike zone more often and he would be able to execute his DTL shots more easily/effectively.
(ii) Making it even more tougher for his opponent to hit through him in these slower conditons! *As if it were not tough enough already!
Novak (Cons): Hardly any but probably
-A bit more challenging to win first serve free points
-A bit more dificult to generate sufficient pace to deal with Rafa’s backhand slices. Novak can sometimes be tentative with putting away good quality slices and he’ll need to do more with these this time>
I agree that Rafa hasn’t played enough matches to be confident enough himself and have that match toughness. I hope that the 9 matches he has played on clay will be enough. Those 3 hrs of long rallies with Diego were quite useful and I am glad he did not have lapses big enough to lose a set.
I am most concerned about Rafa’s backhand actually. His forehand has been devastating in this tournament when he has found his rhythm. He showed how he swept Sinner off the court in that 3rd set. His backhand, though, has not been good enough and he needs to improve. He’s been mixing it up by throwing in loopy backhands DTL but those are less effective in these conditions. We talk about Novak’s backhand DTL being his key shot but let’s not ignore the damage his forehadn DTL does against Rafa when Rafa is not hitting good enough CC backhands. Rafa’s backhand willhave to beat him with pace rather than bounce
I hope Rafa can smartly use his backhand slice. It can be very useful in these conditions as Noavk doesn’t like hitting deep, heavily underspun slices. Anything short with not much on it will be pusnished using effective groundies and the DROP SHOT.
Don’t be surprised if you see Rafa coming closer to the baseline to return on some occasions, like he did yesterday.
My second worry is the Rafa serve. Is he serving good enough? I am not sure. He needs to serve even better and be more aggressive with his first shot be it hte backhand or the forehand. I hate it when opponents return to his backhand and he is not able to hit his backhand DTL closer to the sideline. This pattern would be disaster tomorrow so please, dear Rafa, hit closer to that sideline.
Overall, I am not trying to be negative and I do think Rafa can win. He has done a great job not dropping a set and adapting. I just feel the challenge is bigger than ever and we’ve seen how many times his Serbian rival raises his level against him.
Good luck, champ and go get that 20th slam!