History will be on the line when the Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry adds another chapter in the French Open final on Sunday.
With a win, Nadal would tie Roger Federer atop the all-time men’s singles Grand Slam title chart at 20. Meanwhile, Djokovic has a chance to become the only member of the current Big 3 to win all four slams at least twice.
Beating Nadal in a Roland Garros title match would also be a historic feat for Djokovic, as no one has done it before. The Serb is, however, one of only two men who have toppled Nadal on the terre battue of Paris (in the 2015 quarterfinals). That is part of his overall 29-26 advantage in the head-to-head series, but it is all tied up 4-4 in Grand Slam finals and 3-3 in their last six matchups. During this recent stretch of six encounters, Nadal is 3-0 on clay and Djokovic is 3-0 on hard courts or grass.
Those statistics are hardly a surprise, of course. Although Nadal is not exactly invincible on clay right now, he does remain dominant–especially at the French Open. Losses in warmup events have rarely meant anything for the 34-year-old Spaniard, so everyone should have seen it coming when Nadal lost to Diego Schwartzman in Rome and then trounced him in straight sets in the Roland Garros semis on Friday. That improved the 12-time champion’s record to a ridiculous 99-2 lifetime at this event.
Yes, a win on Sunday will give him a perfect 100 in his illustrious French Open career.
But it obviously won’t be easy against Djokovic. The top-ranked Serb is undefeated this season aside from his infamous U.S. Open default against Pablo Carreno Busta. He has recovered in style, triumphing in Rome and storming into the quarterfinals this fortnight without surrendering a set. However, things got tricky thereafter. Djokovic was less than 100 percent physically while avenging his “loss” to Carreno Busta with a four-set victory and he needed five sets to hold off Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis.
Of the two finalists, Djokovic looks more vulnerable at the moment. It is true that conditions for Nadal in early October are not ideal, but Court Philippe-Chatrier played faster and with higher bounces than all of the other courts throughout the whole tournament.
It is simply too tough to pick against the King of Clay in a French Open final, even against the toughest of all opponents.
Pick: Nadal in 4
In the press room after the match rafa said that he knew coming into the tournament the conditions would be difficult but he told himself that he would not fail and that he has not failed himself.
He was extraordinarily focussed and psyched on Sunday. There aren’t many matches I have seen Rafa play with such intensity and conviction.
Nole just seemed completely taken aback, he seemed to think the conditions would impede rafa’s game and he could beat him relatively easily.
Extraordinary mis-judgement. I was very worried about the conditions and the stupid roof but I knew Rafa was really really going to fight.
He played for his pride
Goes to show Will overpowers all external conditions going against you
As much as I like U. Toni , I think we can all agree that it was a good move to leave his influence somewhat.
Moyá has managed to shake the Novak demons which I thought were never going away.
Of course, Novak can still beat anyone on any given day but this match has shown that Rafa isn’t going to melt against Novak any more. He came close in other matches but this one I believe has turned the tide.
That’s exactly what I think. Hope we are right.
Ohh…i very much hope so shirelling!…but…i want to wait until AO(if they were to meet there) or any other places(other than clay) to c whether what we hoped is true or not…
Also wanna c how Rafa will handle his nerves playing in ‘Novak’s house’ at AO next year…Clay & hc r 2 different things..and very curious to c how Rafa will respond to play there…Really hoped this drubbing of Nole will give him a HUGE boost that he can tame Novak on surfaces other than clay if he has a right game plan & execute it to perfection..He can do it on hc too imo if he determined enough & not let his nerves overwhelmed him…the key point is…his mindset…
Vamos Rafa!!
Tbh, I always thought Rafa was the better player this FO (than Djoko),despite the conditions here. I was hoping that Rafa would win in three sets but it would probably go to four sets as Rafa quite often these days might lose his focus during a set and might then lose the set. In both his SF and Final, the third set was a struggle when out of the blue he suddenly lost his focus or concentration. Fortunately in both matches he managed to win the set and so won the matches without losing any set.
When I watched Djoko vs Tsitsipas, I noticed that Djoko wasn’t really that invincible as Tsitsipas managed to create so many BP chances, it’s just that Tsitsipas didn’t play well enough to take many of them. Tsitsipas imo couldve won the match had he changed his game plan after losing the first set. He made the changes too late in the match, only after losing the second set hence he ran out of the steam by the fifth set against the fitter Djoko.
lucky,
I had the same sense about the match with Tsitsipas. I think it was winnable if Tsitsipas had played the way he did in sets three and four in the first two sets. I think it was the fourth set where Novak had 11 break chances and only made one. That is not like Novak to be unable to capitalize on break chances. Novak also had match point in the third set. But he couldn’t close it out.
I think Tsitsipas will learn from that match. I did not think Novak was looking that great in his matches leading up to the final. But too many times I have seen him raise his level of play in the final.
I watched the replay of the final on the tennis channel. Novak’s first serve percentages were dreadful. It was only 29 % in the first set. Later on in the second or third set it was 44%. You just don’t see Novak serve with such low percentages.
Jim Courier on the tennis channel noted how Rafa was using his backhand slice to throw Novak off his rhythm. Rafa raised his level in every aspect of his game. Serve, return, DTL forehand and backhand.
The drop shots worked early in the match, but later on Rafa was able to handle them. I thought Rafa’s depth of shot was exceptional. The commentators did show how Rafa was standing further back to receive serve.
Rafa came out knowing what he wanted to do. There was no slow start, no sign of nerves. I think this victory has to be very satisfying for Rafa and will give him even more confidence for the matches ahead with Novak.
So which are our fave Rafa wins?? So many to choose from. The one where I was most emotional afterwards was the Rg semi final in 2013 with Nole. There had been that absolutely awful period of time with all the commentators saying he wouldn’t come back to the top after his injury.
That semi-final, which was a de facto final, against his biggest rival winning late in the fifth was unbelievable. But the real poignancy was in his playing amazing tennis when everyone had said he wouldn’t be able to come back from injury and be the same player.
Not the same player. Better! Incredible runs in 2013 on both clay and hard. Wimbledon Final 2008 will always top my long list but there are so many others. We are blessed. Tough times, followed by triumphs. Every time. I do like drama and Rafa has provided a bucket load of that for my final years here. It’s painful, enervating, as Shireling says. But oh so joyful, too. I swear I’ve lived on his USO win last year ever since! I watch the fifth set at least once a week. Rafa said once that winning any tournament was good for a week or two of happiness for him. Well, some of those wins have lasted over a decade for me! Sometimes the good guys win and Rafa is one of those Good Guys!
Wimby 2008 was amazing and the most iconic of his wins: The rain delays; the way it took all day; the flashlights from the cameras going off in the dusk.
Curiously I can remember that all through that match I was quite calm and felt sure Rafa would win in the end. He just seemed unstoppable for a lot of 2008. The affection and friendship between Rafa and Fed at the end of that match when they high fived each other while walking around the court afterwards was very touching.
Am sure that if anyone is going to break his records Fed would prefer it to be Rafa rather than Nole.
One thing strikes me,after all the analysis of who the conditions would suit – tennis is such a mental game. The pressure was really on Nole who was expected to win .Nadal having won 12, what did he have to lose ? The satisfaction of equalling Fed ? Nole has been in a difficult place since the summer and after he nearly lost to Tsitsi I felt he wasn’t going to win and so it proved. Losin g the first set 60 was a disaster when he had game points in his service games.Right from the first game he was getting thrashed,and Nadals tactics took him by surprise .
End of the day though, whats the big surprise? Nadal wins another RG.I dont think its such a bodyblow in their rivalry as some on here have said.
The big surprise wasn’t Rafa winning RG but the manner in which he did it. Completely blowing away Novak.
Absolutely amazing from Rafa, TBH i really thought that Novak was going to win this, he was having an amazing year, and Rafa lacked match play, and after last years mauling at the AO, i was worried Rafa would get trounced again, so happy to be proved wrong ,really didnt expect the match to be so one sided, so happy that the shoe is on the other foot, 20 and tying Roger is fantastic, i had a feeling he would one day ,history was made, cant wait for the AO ….
Commies to Elizabeth , one of the nicest Novak fans on these forums, and the rest of the gang, hope you are all safe and well XX 🙂
I admit that I never thought Rafa could pull this one off. Lack of matches, Nole on the other side and inside his head, Ball/Court/Calendar changes, all were giving me nightmares. I was at a place with no internet, but had nightmares and loss of sleep since friday…. Only to jump high for 5 continuous mins after seeing the score on sunday morning 11 AM PST.
I feel this match would play an important role in their rivalry.. Like Fed with Rafa in AO 2017 final.. After that match, Roger got his confidence back against Rafa and he is 7-1 against him from that day. Hope Rafa does the same and I am eagerly waiting for their next encounter. Doesn’t matter whether it is indoor hardcourt or clay. Billion thanks to Carlos Moya.
7 1 ?? 5 1 it is including the match ..why are you gifting him 2 wins. N 4 of them came in year 17 itself ..
1) No, not 7-1 after the AO2017 win. It’s 4-1 (IW 2019 they didn’t play each other as Rafa withdrawn before their SF meeting due to injury). So, Fed was 5-1 vs Rafa starting from AO2017. Basel win was in 2015, before the AO meeting.
2) This FO win for Rafa is important and meaningful, not just another win at the FO, esp against Djoko. The reason being if Rafa lost, Djoko would be the only one beating him in finals at all the slams. Also, it will cement Djoko’s greatness against his two main rivals, for he had beaten Fed at Wimbledon final, Fed’s backyard; if he beats Rafa too in the FO final, Rafa’s own backyard, he would’ve achieved something no other player could achieved against Fedal. Rafa certainly knows what it means playing and beating Djoko in this FO final, esp given the year that Djoko has.
3) I’m more interested in rating how great Rafa was in his FO finals. To me his 2008, 2017 and 2020 finals were his best performances in FO finals. In all three of these finals, his opponent was left helpless, hopeless almost. Interestingly, these three opponents – Fed, Stan, Djoko – are FO champions, and they all gotten the worse beat down from Rafa.
Fedal rivalry dynamic changed since AO 2017.
Interesting analysis everyone. My favorite performance by rafa is this french open 2020 final followed by the three finals grand slams he won in 2010
I don’t entirely agree that this match n drubbing will alter their matches going forth..surely it will give Rafa more belief. Did the ao 19 drubbing alter anything for rafa at hands of novak ? He beat him feeding him bagels n breadsticks at Rome 4 months later n now RG.
It all depends which Rafa turns up n his mindset. If he is aggressive and tries to dictate n use that bh slice a lot more , mix play a lot , go fh dtl a lot ,serve n return better..he can win over novak at AO too. Didn’t he almost beat him in 2012 ?
And if rafa could handle novak at uso, why not AO..
I agree, if Rafa could beat Djoko at the USO, then why not the AO, esp when the AO Court has been sped up these few years.
If Rafa could go toe to toe with Fed on the quick HCs of AO in 2017 for five sets and barely lost, why can’t he against Djoko then (when Fed is better than Djoko on quicker HCs)?
Too much had been made of their 2019 AO encounter, when Rafa clearly wasn’t at his competitive level yet, after coming back from injury with no proper warm up matches.
I feel in BO3, Djoko always has an edge over Rafa on the HCs, because Rafa tends to start slow and Djoko would run away with the lead when he wins the first set.
In BO5, Rafa has time to come from behind, and if Rafa starts by being aggressive from the get go (like in 2010 & 2013 USO finals) he could win the match.
In both their AO finals (2012 and 2019), Rafa wasn’t sure of how to play against Djoko (2012 after 6 consecutive losses, in 2019 Rafa wasn’t well prepared after coming back from injury).
Hopefully for Rafa, this FO final win will help him in his confidence when facing Djoko on the HCs.
I rewatched the FO final, Djoko wasn’t playing badly, he was not serving well that’s true, but its also because Rafa was returning well (Djoko’s serve speed wasn’t off). Djoko was hitting some great shots during the rallies, like usual, but Rafa somehow found a way to counter them, Djoko got impatient and tried ending the rallies early but often with errors. The stats shown that Rafa was winning most of those short points below three shots, and more medium length rallies than Djoko did, and they’re about the same on the longer rallies. Rafa was just better in almost all areas.
I would expect their encounters on the hard courts to be more competitive; if Rafa could be that close to Djoko on grass (Rafa’s worse surface) then he would be even more competitive on the HCs.
Yes, the thing made me happy was that Nole played so well (except the serve) and lost in straight sets.
AO-2019 – Nadal didn’t loose a set until final.. And many believed he could beat Nole
You got to look at who Rafa beat, mostly young guys, three young guys from third round onwards, and a Berdych whom himself was also coming back from injury – no one top ten player.
I don’t think too many would think that Rafa would beat Djoko then, just maybe made it competitive. I think Rafa fans were hoping Rafa could beat Djoko, mostly because Djoko didn’t look impressive Vs Shapo and Medvedev, but Djoko always raises his level in the final.
AO 21 will be so interesting ..novak defending champion, Rafa going again for double career slam ,Fed coming back after injury n ppl exoecting him to repeat 2017 , Thiem n tsitsipas n Medvedev – will they have a say n cause upsets ,who will draw the giant Slayer – kyrgios n ofcourse how will courts play ( fast ,medium )