Beijing R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wu, Isner vs. Thiem

October 5, 2015 Ricky Match previews 101

IsnerRafael Nadal will begin his bid for the Beijing title when he opens against Di Wu on Tuesday. First-round action also features John Isner vs. Dominic Thiem.

(WC) Di Wu vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal hopes to right the wrongs of a tough 2015 campaign as he kicks off the finishing fall swing at the China Open on Tuesday. The former world No. 1’s slippery slide down the rankings continued when Kuala Lumpur champion David Ferrer passed him for No. 7 on Monday, relegating his fellow Spaniard to eighth. Nadal is a decent 45-15 for the season but he owns just three titles and none have come at anything more than a 500-point event (two of the 250-point variety).

Up first for the No. 3 seed on Tuesday in Beijing is Wu, whom he has never faced. Wu registers at 230th in the world and obviously needed a wild card to get into this tournament. The little-known Chinese player, who is 24 years old, has two ATP-level match victories in 2015 and 15 in his entire career. Every single one of those 15 has come in Davis Cup; Wu has never won an ATP tournament match. He is coming off a horrendous 6-1, 6-0 loss to Hyeon Chung last week in Shenzhen. This, of course, should be utter domination in Nadal’s favor.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 6 games or fewer

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Dominic Thiem vs. (6) John Isner

Isner and Thiem will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and for the second time this season on Tuesday. Their only previous meeting came on clay in the Nice semifinals this spring, when Thiem prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3. A hard court should give Isner a better chance even though both men are capable on all surfaces. Almost all of Thiem’s best results have come on the slow stuff aside from a fourth-round showing at the 2014 U.S. Open and a quarterfinal performance this year in Miami.

At No. 13 in the world and 11th in the race, Isner has a realistic chance of being an alternate at the World Tour Finals. He would have to win this title in order to surge into serious discussion for qualification heading into Masters events in Shanghai and Paris. The 6’10” American is 37-20 for his 2015 campaign and coming off a fourth-round finish in New York. Thiem registers one spot off his career-high ranking at No. 19. The 22-year-old Austrian endured a disappointing hard-court summer but he managed to reach the St. Petersburg semis last week. With a slight edge in both current form and surface, Isner should power his way to a hard-fought victory.

Pick: Isner in 3

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61 Comments on Beijing R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wu, Isner vs. Thiem

  1. thanks augusta, but wining a couple of qualifying matches does not mean he should place any danger to Rafa…Ricky was right about Wu…I know you will always do your best to find excuses and I do not blame you for that…but this Rafa needs to be realistic about himself…he needs to understand that he shall never allow these nobodies play the way they are against him…it’s not them beating him, it’s Rafa beating himself…”

    I am no longer sad or feeling sorry for Rafa…I am just so angry with him…he needs to wake up… maybe standing in front of the mirror and repeating: I am Rafael Nadal! I have 14 GSs and a record Master titles on the tour…I am certainly better than them” would help…

    Reply

  2. Bravo Shireling.

    My TennisTV stream kept buffering so gave up watching.

    I refuse to accept this match is a true reflection of Rafa’s form: he has to be practising not playing flat out competitive matches. I know this is sacrilege to suggest, and no doubt I will be accused of clutching at straws, but there is no other explanation.

    #WaitingFor2016

    Reply

    • I actually was right with my prediction of Rafa losing more than six games. I tried to watch the match, even though it started at 2:30 am my time. But I fell asleep and then woke up to see the final score of 6-4, 6-4. I was really surprised, given that this guy really is a nobody.

      I hope to watch the replay today on the tennis channel so that I can see for myself what was going on with Rafa. I have been reading the comments of those who watched with interest. It seems that there is still a lot more work to do for Rafa.

      Reply

  7. Ricky says:
    Wu Shud not be 230th. His talent level is between 600 and 800.

    Rafa says:
    “He can play very easy. He’s a good player. He plays better than what his ranking says. But at the end of the day he’s an opponent that has a good potential, makes the things easy. ”

    That and everybody plays lights out against Rafa, right?

    Reply

    • ^^Right. As has been commentated on so many times. The pool of players who take heart from Rafa’s losses and have fathomed out how to play him is getting ever larger. The days when his attritional play eventually wore down all but a few of even the top players are long gone.

      Reply

  8. As I said last week, Nadal only managed six points and a bucket of sweat in an exhibition against Novak (who wasn’t playing his top effort being an exhibition).

    His struggles today are not really a surprise in the least.

    Again he played way too far behind the baseline.

    The guy is a ball of nerves these days.

    Even Pospisil will present a major challenge to him in the next round given his current state of mind.

    At least practise is going well.

    Reply

    • i see that everything is as it was…that’s good to know…don’t want the world to suddenly mysteriously change so that i have to rethink my idea of it!
      this new rafa is becoming deeply entrenched as the rafa of the future..

      Reply

      • amy,

        Unfortunately, I have been having my own health problems. I don’t care to talk about it here because it’s too public. But I am getting the right medical treatment and am working to get better.

        Thanks so much for asking. Since there wasn’t much going on tennis wise after the USO, it was the ideal time to take a break and deal with my health. But I always planned on coming back once Rafa was playing again. Now I have to deal once again with the time difference. I try to do my best, but my health is the priority. If I can’t stay up until the wee hours, then there’s nothing to be done about it. I remember reminding you to put your health first, so I guess I have to take my own advice!

        Rafa’s match will be on at 9:00 am my time, so I will be able to watch it live.

        It’s great having you back! 🙂

        Reply

      • nny, am very sorry to hear that you have had health problems. is exhausting no?? you absolutely must put your health first, not just your physical but emotional health as well.
        so be very careful about expending energy watching rafa now that he is not playing well as that can be very draining and upsetting.
        am thinking about you and sending positive thoughts to you in the usa…..see they are winging their way across the channel now..or the pond as you americans call it!!

        Reply

  11. @ augusta08
    October 6, 2015 at 11:38 am

    Thanks for the link to an objective view of the match from someone who is not filled with hate for Rafa.

    Reply

  12. I honestly think Uncle T needs to change his current strategy with Rafa…his recent rhetoric of “defending” Rafa’s lousy tennis needs to change…this is not how Rafa was trained in the past…tapping on the shoulder and comforting his nephew does not run in Toni’s vains…

    I think Uncle T needs to be ruthless in reminding Rafa who he is…and that he should face his opponents knowing what kind of damage his tennis can and will do…Rafa’s mindset of playing not to lose obviously isn’t giving results…and the pathetic story of low confidence and feeling sorry for himself along with this now already famous statement “he played the best match of his life” must stop…

    Rafa simply needs to get angry (the way he got mad at Fog and beating him to win the crown in Hamburg!) and go out and play his tennis without fears, doubts and
    tentativeness…there is no such thing as lack of confidence with the player ranked 230…

    Reply

    • nats,

      Aren’t you concerned that you will be labeled a hater of Rafa? Anyone who says anything other than fulsome hero worship and praise of Rafa in every match, usually gets branded with being a hater.

      I appreciate your honest take on the match. Since I have not yet seen it, I rely on the comments here from those who watched Rafa’s match. It’s deeply concerning to know that it’s still the same old, same old.

      Reply

      • the only concern for me is Rafa and if people think I am wrong and disagree it’s fine with me…in fact, I would so love to be wrong in this case…but losing 8 games to nobody really hurts…and then Rafa saying how Wu is great player makes it even worse…Wu did the same thing as every other opponent of Rafa in 2015: hitting hard and waiting for Rafa’s errors…what is beyond me is Rafa being in advance and giving it up so easily even when playing the player who won a couple of qualifying matches in his whole career…and when I see Wu winning the rallies I get depressed…

        Maybe it’s me…once again I expected too much from Rafa whereas I should have been overwhelmed with joy that he won his first round match…:-)

        Reply

  13. nativenewyorker7 says:
    October 6, 2015 at 1:58 pm

    We are all free to post what we want here, the only umpire being Ricky the Man.
    I get nats’ frustration but at the same time don’t see any added value in pointing the obvious = that Rafa is playing like s* and has been doing so for some time now.
    All we can do is hope he gets back to being the formidable player he was not so long ago and if not, accept his decline with respect. He’s always going to be a great champion no matter how his career goes henceforward.

    Reply

    • thanks shireling1…I appreciate your words…

      You know they say there are five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance…I have been living in denial for quite a long now. When in denial, you think any possible excuse of why not to believe what is true…I have passed that stage…I am currently ANGRY…angry at my hero…but I am not ready to let go…I am not ready to accept his decline…I prefer to be angry and hope to see my hero back soon…

      Reply

    • Shireling,

      I am not sure exactly what point you are trying to make. I don’t see anyone saying that Rafa is playing like s*. So saying that really doesn’t help. What I do see is people expressing their concern, frustration, anger, sadness, all the emotions one would expect when we see our favorite player struggling in this way. It’s certainly not fun to watch. But being upset or critical of how he’s playing does not make anyone a hater or a bad Rafa fan. That’s the point I was trying to make. You know full well what has been posted here all too often. You can read it for yourself.

      I am well aware that Ricky is the one who determines what is okay to post. I am also grateful that he has allowed us to express our emotions be they positive or negative regarding Rafa’s situation. That’s why I continue to post here. I know that I can say what I think and be allowed to vent my feelings.

      Of course I hope Rafa gets back to being his best. I will always support him in my way and that will never change.

      Reply

  14. I went from the bargaining phase to the acceptance one… can’t be bothered with depression 🙂
    Having said that… I’ve stopped watching Rafa since Wimby… it’s just too painful… it’s like going bald: (unfortunately it’s happening to me too).. if you don’t look at it, it doesn’t hurt so much.
    But I do so wish (and believe) that he still has it in him to win something important before calling it quits.

    Reply

    • The last time I was depressed about Rafa was when he finally lost to Nole at Roland Garros.

      While it wasn’t a shock, the way he went out in straight sets on his favourite court, with his will finally broken, made it real and I thought this is his new level for the near future without real change in his approach.

      Since then, like Rafa, I have moved on to acceptance. Maybe he can find his game again with or without new members on his team. I hope so.

      Four months later and little has changed. It has been over two years since Rafa has played his best level.

      In any case, as Rafa says, there are definitely more important things in life.

      Vamos Rafa no matter what.

      Reply

  15. @ nadline10, 2:24 pm,
    I envy you…I must be the greedy one asking too much but I could not enjoy Rafa being broken three times…I also could not enjoy Wu making a good account of himself…I expected Rafa to beat him convincingly considering who Wu is…I hate when Rafa loses rallies against nobodies…I am angry when Rafa is forced to work hard against players out of top 100…I don’t enjoy a contest this early in the tourney…maybe I just wanted Rafa to play one match with calm and it obviously ain’t gonna happen…

    I keep telling myself that I should be prepared for Rafa’s bad matches/meltdowns/losses but the truth is I never will hence this outrage in me… 🙂

    Reply

    • I understand where you are coming from nats and I too would have preferred Rafa to roll over Wu but Wu was pumped up, his adrenalin was flowing because he wanted to impress his home crowd and he made the match competitive. Imagine what a massive boost it would have been for him to take Rafa’s scalp in front of his home crowd so he stretched himself and put everything into it.

      It appears that some posters lurk in the corner with their fingers crossed hoping that they will have cause to do some Rafa bashing and gloating after his matches and even when he wins a match they still shred him to pieces for one thing or another. Some don’t even bother to watch Rafa play they just hang on to the negativity expressed by the posters they look up to because it makes them feel good so they cheer from the sidelines when Rafa us being mocked, laughing and patting each other on the back. The more someone hates Rafa the more highly they are regarded by some posters here.

      Reply

      • Regarding the comment @ 3:28 pm, this is exactly what I have been referencing. These thinly disguised attempts to attack and disparage and mischaracterize some Rafa fans because they do not follow in lockstep and say what one person has decided must be said. Those who dare to think for themselves, stay true to who they are, speak their truth and say what they think. But the intolerance expressed in this post is honestly quite disgusting and offensive.

        The pious tone and the idea that anyone here is somehow above anyone else and can look down on them and demean their comments or twist and distort them for their own purposes, is unfortunate. But no one is going to tell me what to say and how to say it. The idea that any Rafa fan would secretly be hoping that they can bash Rafa, is outrageous and wrong on its face. This constant baiting and instigating and trashing others, is just toxic.

        The little dig about some not bothering to watch Rafa, was an obvious dig at me without addressing me by name. Why? Because I didn’t want the entirety of Rafa’s exho? A capital offense if ever there was one! Or maybe because I haven’t yet seen Rafa’s first match at Beijing? I guess it’s a crime to fall asleep in the wee hours of the morning. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry when I read this kind of thing.

        What is most disturbing is the selective targeting of certain Rafa fans. There are some here who have expressed their anger and frustration, but somehow are exempt from this kind of attack. It’s only directed at selected Rafa fans who are being targeted and called out. It’s divide and conquer. The same old, same old. Never changes.

        It’s a real shame, because in the end that kind of attack is not being a real Rafa fan. Rafa has no meanness in him. He is humble and gracious. I think he would understand his fans feeling sad or depressed for him or even angry at times. He’s a good and decent human being as well as a great champion. Attacks of this nature are not in keeping with the spirit of Rafa. It’s a real shame.

        Reply

  17. I know Rafa is not playing at his best atm but it is not unusual for players to punch above their weight in front of their home crowd. I remember Barry Cowan, a WC, nearly beating Sampras at Wimbledon once taking him to 5 sets.

    Reply

    • I remember that in 2001, when World No. 6 Sampras was near the end and a shell of the player who won so many Wimbly titles. The same year Federer beat him in the fourth round.

      Reply

      • Coincidentally, Sampras was the same age as Rafa.

        Sampras said he lost the mental will and drive to continue playing tennis consistently at the highest level.

        He never won another tournament at any level before he won his last slam of course in 2002.

        Reply

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