Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Rafa 5Novak Djokovic will put his 28-0 lifetime record in Beijing on the line during Sunday’s title match against none other than Rafael Nadal. The blockbuster final was guaranteed after Nadal got past Fabio Fognini on Saturday.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 45th time in their careers when they collide again in the China Open final on Sunday.

Although Nadal still holds a 23-21 edge in the head-to-head series, it has shrunk with each meeting this season. Djokovic prevailed twice on clay; 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the French Open semis. The Serb is 14-7 lifetime against Nadal on hard courts and 3-0 in such matches since falling to the Spaniard in the 2013 U.S. Open title match.

Their only previous Beijing ATP encounter came two years ago, when Djokovic cruised 6-3, 6-4 to lift the trophy. They also faced each other in the semifinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with Nadal triumphing 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 on his way to the gold medal.

Nowhere is Djokovic more dominant than at the China Open. His career record stands at 28-0 and he could pass Nadal’s best-ever 31-0 start at Roland Garros if he wins on Sunday and returns to the tournament for a 2016 encore. The world No. 1 has endured absolutely no trouble of any kind while remaining unblemished this week. Djokovic punched his ticket to the last two by easing past Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, John Isner, and David Ferrer.
Djoker 2
For Nadal, simply reaching the final is a stellar result. He always says that, but in this case it is actually true. Not only has the third seed been in disappointing form almost the entire season, but he also had a tough draw in Beijing. After seeing off Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal navigated rough waters in the form of Vasek Pospisil, Jack Sock, and recent nemesis Fabio Fognini. Only Sock has managed to take a set off the 14-time Grand Slam champion, who swiftly erased his one-set quarterfinal deficit.

“I always expect a battle with him,” Djokovic said of Nadal. “I always prepare myself for the battle, no question about it. He’s the player I played the most against in my life. There are no secrets.”

There is also no secret about the current trend of this rivalry. Djokovic has been borderline dominant of late, just as he has been against almost every opponent. If the top seed made short work of Nadal twice on clay, only more of the same can be expected at a place that may the last one anyone would choose to face Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

[polldaddy poll=9120736]

59 Comments on Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

    • Sometimes you just try to sugar-coat the reality, I mean seriously we are talking about a 14 time major champion here not a 2nd tier player. Nadal didn’t lose 7-6 7-6, he lost 6-2 6-2 you cant blame luck after such a lopsided defeat, before the match you said you believed he could win, but he only managed 4 games.

      • It’s unfortunate that some are just blind to reality. There’s no shame in accepting what happened in this match. Rafa was very gracious to Novak in his comments during the trophy ceremony. That’s class. He also was being honest. I am so proud of Rafa for having the grace to congratulate Novak and acknowledge the great year he is having.

  1. Thx for your comments, it’s nice to see that despite the comprehensive score, Rafa played well. Vamos Rafa, on your way to complete come-back!
    Congrats to Djokovic for yet another title this year. Amazing.

  2. “I knew that he’s going to make mistakes and he’s going to give me shorter balls so I can dominate the rallies, which happened”, Djokovic

    Djokovic said Nadal had his chances in first set but they he kept his calm and his aggressivity. It paid off. His serve helped a lot too.

  3. I finally saw my recording of the match. I couldn’t get up that early. It’s what I expected. No surprise. I was just unnerved when Rafa hurt his foot. That was a concern. I hope he’s okay. He did finish the match, so hopefully that’s a good sign.

    Rafa winning the Olympic gold medal on this court was seven years ago. Novak wasn’t the player he is now. This had nothing to do with luck. You don’t win three slams and get one win away from the calendar slam because of luck. That’s beyond absurd. Novak is simply in stellar form right now, brimming with confidence.

    Rafa had his moments. There were flashes of brilliance from him and that was really nice to see. But at this time he can’t sustain a high enough level of play to beat Novak. It’s a work in progress. He fought and did his best. That’s all I could possibly ask of him. He got a great result getting to the final.

    One thing I noticed is that Rafa’s DTL forehand let him down in key moments of the match. He was missing that shot when he needed it most. Against Novak that’s the crucial shot that must be firing for Rafa to have success. He also dumped forehands into the net. He has to work to get that shot back at its best.

    But this has been a good week for Rafa.

      • Thanks! It really ticks me off to read some comments saying it was all about luck with Novak! Really? Painting those lines has nothing to do with luck! Geez, I don’t know why people just can’t give the guy credit for being in great form now. He has always done well during this part of the tennis year, because these fast, low bouncing courts suit his game. I think he’s going to continue his winning ways. Maybe Fed might have a shot in a best of three set match on these courts. But Novak is just feeling it now.

        I am just grateful for those flashes of brilliance from Rafa. He just needs to be able to play that way more consistently if he wants to beat Novak. The forehand issue must be resolved during the off season. Even the tennis channel commies noticed that Rafa isn’t getting the power off that shot in his previous matches. He also doesn’t have the precision and accuracy.

        What Novak is doing is no accident. I am just incredibly proud of Rafa for being so generous with his praise of Novak during that trophy ceremony. He didn’t have to do it. But that’s the measure of Rafa. He could have decided to be petty and talk about it all being luck, but he’s smart enough to know better.

        Rafa is going in the right direction now. I believe he’s going to get there. It won’t happen overnight. He can take some good things out of this match, because there were some great rallies where he went toe to toe with Novak. If he keeps on working, he will get there!

      • Don’t be preposterous, this match was not decided by 1 or 2 points, Djoker was thoroughly dominant unless you saw something that I didnt.

    • Chris U, 🙂

      Oh yes, that’s true about Fed saying that Novak was lucky when he hit that brilliant ROS shot to stave off a match point. That was just pure guts and going for it when it mattered most.

      So yes, there is a familiar ring to these comments about it being all about luck. But Rafa spoke specifically to Novak about his great year. Why? Because he knows better than anyone that it has nothing to do with luck. I just can’t get over Rafa’s innate appreciation for his rivals even when it’s at his expense.

      Rafa will come away with some positives and good feelings after this tournament. I just hope that his foot is okay. He’s definitely going in the right direction and I have confidence that he will get there.

  4. it is interesting to notice that 50% of the poll are in favor of nadal winning this match; such unrealistic scenario! i am sure nadline voted 20 times at least.

    • Actually, I only vote once in these polls because I don’t believe that polls decide the outcome of anything and I don’t think living in a fool’s paradise is of any use.

    • Geez Such arrogance and ignorance being shown in some of the comments, such as Djokovic was lucky today and “Novak is lucky because Rafa is in a slump and he is competing against a weak tour” Isn’t this the same ” weak” tour where Rafa Nadal has won his share of titles? If Nadal is in a slump and an extended one at that, why should Djokovic be discredited for what he is doing? Nadal’s extended slump is none of Djokers business, he can beat only whoever is on the other side of the net. Djokovic will finish the year as #1 for the 4th time in last 5 years and ITF World Champion for the 5th straight year. Do you want to say that Rafa Nadal has been in a slump for all of this period? Surely not, Djokovic was good enough to win many majors and stay at # 1(more often than not) even when Rafa Nadal was at his best. Of course back then the gap between the 2 wasn’t as huge as it is now.

  5. ChinaOpen, Oct. 11, 2105: ¤¤ Nadal turns win into a loss¤¤
    http://www.chinaopen.com.cn/en/news/2015-10-12/0043901.shtml

    Excerpts:
    ¤¤ If it’s possible to experience a win within a loss, Rafael Nadal did it as he finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the China Open.
    “After the match I’m more happy than before the match,” Nadal declared following world No.1 Djokovic’s straight-sets victory …
    Having experienced a disappointing season according to his own high standards, Nadal is determined now to simply make improvements in his tennis as he builds a stronger base for the 2016 season.
    …there was reason to be positive about tonight’s final performance too.
    With aggression from the baseline, there were many of Nadal’s trademark forehand winners in the longer rallies – along with a strong sense that he wasn’t far from the form that’s made him a 14-time Grand Slam champion and provided long stints at world No.1.
    “For moments in that first set, I was very close to that level, thinking that I am playing against a player who is playing unbelievable and with huge confidence,” Nadal surmised of Djokovic…
    “In terms of game, I was not very far in that first set. Seriously I had a lot of chances.”
    Nadal was treated for a right foot injury midway through the third game of the second set and there was a corresponding dip in intensity as he dropped serve in that game and again in the fifth, before Djokovic sealed the 91-minute win with an ace.
    “I felt something but hopefully it’s fine,” the Spaniard explained of the injury, adding that he still intends to travel to the Shanghai Rolex Masters tomorrow and complete a scheduled practice session. “For the moment, still the same.”
    As the season draws to a close, Nadal is already looking ahead to the next one, knowing that he’s building a foundation to return to his top form in 2016.
    “My main goal is try to be 100 per cent ready for the beginning of next a season,” he reiterated. “A week like this one helps a lot.”
    Asked whether he can catch Djokovic at world No.1, Nadal would only point to his own progress. “I’m going to fight. I’m going to do it my way,” he stressed. “When I was No.2 and Roger (Federer) was No.1 (it) was not my obsession to improve my game and do my way. For me (it) is the same thing today.”
    And even if he’s not winning all his matches – yet – Nadal is certainly winning in attitude. “My motivation is (to) keep going, do it my way,” he stressed. “ I have been doing that already … I know if I am playing well again, then I can fight.” ¤¤

    Fight bravely, Rafa!

  6. I cannot single out any successful player who did not state at least once in his career: “I was not lucky in this match and I lost it”…I remember some players playing against Rafa and winning saying: I was a bit lucky today…so I think in this sport luck does play a role…a small one but it does…if you follow football, volleyball, or any other sport you would know that luck always becomes part of the equation…

    Nobody here is saying that it was pure luck that Novak won…that is ridiculous way to put it…I believe what is meant is that Rafa could have had it better way if there was some luck involved…the Serbian commentator said at least couple of times: “those lines and the net are certainly on Novak’s side today”…

    Novak is playing great and there is no doubt about it…all we can do is congratulate him…but Rafa is progressing…and he will get there…and I believe his luck will be there for him in the key turning points… 🙂

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Rafa himself has admitted to be lucky to win a match from time to time. He was hardly expected to say Novak got a few lucky balls that barely touched the lines. It would have been completely out of order for Rafa to say Novak got lucky in a few close calls at the presentation ceremony, but he’ll know that is the case.

    • In reply to natashao2013: at 7:34 pm

      You mentioned Football, the big difference between tennis and Football is that Football matches are often decided by a single goal, as a result 1 moment of brilliance, 1 bad decision by the referee, 1 minor error even an own goal and you end up losing the match. For that reason luck plays more of a role in Football. I am not saying that luck does not play any role in tennis, but Tennis matches are rarely decided by 1 or 2 points so the luck factor is not as big.

      • @64aces,

        I said the same thing in my post above:
        “so I think in this sport luck does play a role…a small one but it does”…

  7. I prefer to go by what Rafa said at the trophy ceremony. He wnt out of his way to congratulate Novak on the great year he is having, how well he’s done and being the best player at this time. He did not have to say all of that. But he did. He has the grace, dignity and class to acknowledge one of his rivals and the success he has had this year. That’s just another reason to love him and be proud to be his fan.

    No one ever said that luck is never involved in winning. But the point was made here that Novak only won the match because of luck. I must have been watching a different match, because I saw a player who was hitting the lines with accuracy and precision at key moments in the match. Unfortunately for Rafa, he was missing shots in the key moments of the match. He has not been able to get his forehand back to being the formidable weapon that it has been in the past. I am sure that he will keep working to get his money shot back in full force. That could well have made the difference in this match.

    The one shot that Rafa needs to be firing is the DTL forehand when playing Novak. That is the shot that has changed the dynamic of their matches. In 2013 that shot did tremendous damage when Rafa beat Novak at RG and at the USO. When Rafa had his chances, he missed with his DTL forehands. He will have to address this issue. I do think he came out of this match feeling good. He feels that he’s getting closer. I believe he will get there.

    At times I am sure that Rafa will have some luck, but when all is said and done he is going to have to improve certain aspects of his game. I have said that we need Rafa back, because when he’s on his game he is the only player who can take down Novak. So I am rooting for him to get there. 🙂

  8. Well that’s a shock! Rafa admitting that he was lucky to win. How that relates to Novak beating him today, I have no idea. I guess Novak was supposed to take his trophy and say that it was all due to luck!

    Rafa knows better. Maybe some people need to watch again and listen to what Rafa said.

      • Ricky,

        Reference nadline’s comment @ 7:53 pm to the effect that Rafa admitted he was lucky to win in Madrid last year against Kei. I don’t see the relevance to this final. But there has been discussion and disagreement about Novak winning due to luck. I don’t agree with that, but others seem to think he was lucky and that’s why he got the win.

  9. Novak was simply the better player. Rafa showed flashes of brilliance. Nothing more. He is not anywhere as consistent to beat Novak or any top player for the moment.

    • Atul.

      Yes! Thank you! That’s what I have been trying to stay amidst the comments that Novak was lucky. He hit the lines and made the shots when it counted. Rafa did not. As you said, Rafa did show flashes of his old self. But that’s not enough to get it done against Novak.

  10. Djokovic has been ranked # 1 for 167 of the last 223 weeks, about 75% of the time, what does that prove? Djokovic has been way more consistent than Nadal 4 of the last 5 seasons, and he genuinely cares about all events. At the moment Djoker has such a big lead atop its very hard to imagine him losing his # 1 spot anytime soon.

    • Exactly, and with so many titles won and finals played right through the year, it’s very hard to see any player coming close to Djoker in the months ahead.

      Indeed, this week sees Federer heading Nadal in the rankings for a year now, and with the Swiss banking big points over the summer months (and little to defend in Australia and on clay), it is difficult to see Nadal heading him again for quite some time to come. Nadal is amazing, but so are his key rivals. They make their own luck, frankly. That’s what champions do.

  11. Fed has lots of points to defend too early next year right through the USO – he won Brisbane, Dubai, Istanbul, Halle, Cincy, and reached the finals at IW, Rome, Wimbledon and USO – now that’s quite many points to defend for an old man at 34 or 35 yo!

    Rafa will have his chances to overtake anyone not named Novak, as long as he can return to his ‘old self’ and wins titles. He only managed 1015 points from AO to Miami and 1500 points from MC to RG (EXCL Barcelona) in 2015; clearly he has room to add in many more points during these same periods next year.

  12. As nearly every year now for so long…. the main rival in Rafa’s life (some years one of the two main rivals, Nole being the other) …. is … ranked nothing … but is his injuries (2015 was an exception) and the increasing challenge that is his pretty strong anxiety condition (or whatever you want to call it). It is in this that Nole and Roger have been lucky so often.

    If Nadal had as few injuries as those two, and no particular anxiety issues, then both of them would have fewer titles today, and Rafa quite a few more. Next year is no different… if Rafa has not much injury-wise and somehow by sheer will and grit or otherwise his anxiety condition becomes much less, the way it was in earlier years, then it’s a whole other situation and Rafa would be strong competitor to Nole and Roger would not keep up points-wise.

    There is almost the entire story of how good each year has been and will be for ‘our’ guy, imo: levels of injuries and levels of anxiety.

    • Chloro. Were you watching the final? All the indications are he is recovering slowly but surely from the paralysing state of anxiety. It was only in the first match, against the pumped up but to Rafa unkown opponent Di Wu, one could detect the familiar telltale signs of anxiety. Thereafter he dropped only one set (to Sock) on his way to the final. I would say it’s his fans who are now the more stressed!!!

      • I have said that I am not at all sure exactly what has been troubling Rafa this year. I am not willing to state that he has any kind of specific anxiety disorder. There are a lot of factors that can effect a player who has been at the very top of his sport for ten years. We don’t know all the variables.

        There were some signs of a kind of burnout in 2011. Rafa himself said that he felt like he had been playing for 100 years instead of 10. He seemed to have lost the joy of competing. That year the one player he could not beat was Novak, who had come out strong with his unbeaten streak early that year. But Rafa was still getting to finals and could beat everyone else. Whatever was going on that year, Rafa came out in 2012 with a renewed spirit and his competitive desire was back. He did lose that epic AO final to Novak, but in the process found the answers to beating him.

        I do not pretend to know exactly what is going on with Rafa. I think there is a strong mental aspect and his confidence and calm has not been there when he needs it most. That has been one of Rafa’s strongest assets. But there are also specific issues with his game that need to be addressed. He has to get that forehand working again. It’s his signature shot that sets up everything else. He seems to be serving better, so that’s an improvement. He has to be able to play at a higher level more consistently.

        I do agree that there were some very encouraging signs during this tournament. Rafa seems more relaxed and more mentally present in his matches. He has been able to make adjustments as he did in his match with Sock. That’s something he was unable to do earlier this year. I think whatever has been bothering him seems to be resolving over time.

        As a Rafa fan, I don’t feel stressed at this time. I have felt very stressed at different points throughout this year. If Rafa can get some decent results in the last few months of this year, it will set him up nicely for next year.

      • Ed,
        Yes, I watched the final and I was VERY happy to see how well rafa played.
        This is what I wrote a day earlier:

        It was wonderful to see Rafa playing this well, for this year. Given that he says he isn’t going to make changes in his team or in working with a psychologist / psychotherapist and the like… some days I am hopeful that he will more or less conquer his anxiety enough next year to resemble the Rafa pre 2014

  13. Djokovic said as below

    “The scoreline–especially in the first set–doesn’t indicate the real battle that we had on the court,” the world No. 1 assessed. “I’m aware of the fact that very few points can decide a winner of the matches I play against the biggest rivals, and Rafa is definitely one of them. He’s the kind of player that is a champion and understands the kind of challenge that a big match presents. He knows how to play on the big stage for the titles.

      • I won’t bother to reply to this kind of accusation over and over (assuming you include me in your post here at 7:22 am)… I’ll just do it once here, unless this post disappears.

        Nadline, you are a hypocrite of the worst kind, in at least two ways:

        You accuse others of being mean when they are in fact not, and turn around to be more or less the only bully on this site that is a regular

        You accuse others of condemning Rafa, attacking him, being less than loyal, not real fans, etc, etc… all lies… that is, any rafa fans who do not have a 100% black and white extreme view of the Rafa world, but instead are trying to see things as objectively as possible, whatever the facts may be, and not loving and supporting this exceptional man any less for doing so (…. arguably more so for it).

        Analogy: is it better for a child if a loving parent sees everything about this child as being perfect at all times, or if the loving parent tries to see the child and its life as objectively as possible all the while loving it no less?

  14. Wealth of info and statements from Rafa camp. What is this Nataste thing?

    “The positive thing is that Rafael played really bad this year but he’s still seventh in the Race [to London for the ATP World Tour Finals]. That’s the best thing to come out of this, because it means he has enough space to come back faster,” Rafael’s uncle and coach Toni Nadal said in Beijing. “Mentally it hasn’t been easy because he isn’t used to losing, but in life things aren’t lasting for ever so you have to accept that. We’re moving forward, trying to train with a better focus and intensity. He is really improving, so I don’t know if his game will be back this season, but I believe Rafael will be very good again in 2016.”

    “When you have longer without playing well, then it takes longer to play well again. It’s something that I accept, and I am working hard,” Rafael said. “I feel happy about every improvement, with the way we are working. I think we’re on the right way, with positive attitude from everybody in the team and knowing that things are difficult but that we can be there again.”
    The question is: what point in his career is there? Is it his 2013 level of play, where he won the French and U.S. Opens, and eight ATP titles? Or is it simply making his game evolve again, or reconnecting his rivalry with Novak Djokovic?

    “A bit of both,” said Toni about Rafael’s season two years ago and the development of his game. About the possibility of catching up with Djokovic, Toni is less optimistic.

    “No, because at the moment we’re way too far from him,” he said with a sigh. “First we need to get the game back, and then we’ll be able to be competitive with everybody. But let’s not forget that you have young guns coming up now too, so it won’t be easy. Yet, if you’re mentally strong and you still want to be out there, then it will always be possible.”

    After several tough losses and disappointments, Rafael’s motivation is still intact for the end of this season and for his ambitions for 2016. “My goal is to recover the level especially to play my best on clay next year,” he said.
    “His confidence is built on that, his game is built on that,” Toni said of Roland Garros, where Rafael has won nine titles. “So yes, in order to regain those two we need to win back the clay. Of course we shouldn’t wait for the clay to start playing well again but the main goal remains to be again the No. 1 on the clay.”

    And for this, there’s a clear plan set up for the months to come. Toni and Rafael have already changed some things at practice and assessed his game for areas of improvement.

    “In 2013 his level was higher because his game was stronger. He was taking the ball more forward, he was going for his shots and for the points. This season, the legs have stopped a bit,” Toni said. “But when you are tighter, then the legs don’t move that well anymore. We need to do better and I think we know how.

    “We’re working on how he moves, but mostly we need to get his forehand back. That’s what he’s been missing the most this year. But recently at training it’s been better, we just now lack the safety of knowing that he can repeat those sequences over and over again.”

    Toni is still the main person in charge of bringing Rafael back to his best, but he’s also aware of recent comments suggesting that his nephew needs to try another coaching method. He says the remarks do not hurt him, but he isn’t impressed either. “It’s easy to talk, and many people are talking about a lot of things and many times they do without knowing. To know, you have to come and watch a practice session, you have to know what the coach is saying,” Toni said. “We’ll see if Rafael thinks that we must change or that we must add a super coach [smiling]. If I thought it’d be better for Rafael, I’d do it. I don’t want the best for me but for him. I’m the coach but I’m the uncle too. If he tells me that, I don’t know, [Ilie] Nastase is arriving, and then Rafael ends winning Roland Garros, I say come, come Nastase! I’d be very glad.”

    • Sanju (at 7:40 am),

      I posted the same article on Rafa’s page on October 10, 2015 at 5:32 pm.

      As for the Race to London, Rafa is currently No.6.

      • chloro,

        Regarding your post @ 8:15 pm, all I can say is thanks. You and I have not always agreed, but somehow we can do so with mutual respect.

        You said what I have been feeling and thinking and probably much better than I ever could. 🙂

    • Thank you Uncle Toni! Yes he said it. They have to get Rafa’s forehand back! That’s what I have been saying. I also appreciate that Uncle Toni also said that Rafa is too far from Novak at this time. That has a familiar ring to it! I guess it’s because some of us here have said the same thing. I sure hope that doesn’t make Uncle Toni a hater!

      I found what he said very enlightening. They seem to have a plan and a sense as to what has to be done. I think we are seeing some of the improvement now. Little by little, bit by bit. I also think that Rafa made a good point when he said that if a player hasn’t played well in a long time, then it will take longer to get back. I think what Uncle Toni said about Rafa’s legs was also interesting. That the legs have stopped a bit, when you are tighter you don’t move as well. So it seems that he has a handle on what the issues are and how to improve.

      However, about Nastase being Rafa’s coach, just NO! I am sure that Uncle Toni was joking!

      Sanju,

      Thanks for posting this! 🙂

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