Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Rafa 5Novak Djokovic will put his 28-0 lifetime record in Beijing on the line during Sunday’s title match against none other than Rafael Nadal. The blockbuster final was guaranteed after Nadal got past Fabio Fognini on Saturday.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 45th time in their careers when they collide again in the China Open final on Sunday.

Although Nadal still holds a 23-21 edge in the head-to-head series, it has shrunk with each meeting this season. Djokovic prevailed twice on clay; 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the French Open semis. The Serb is 14-7 lifetime against Nadal on hard courts and 3-0 in such matches since falling to the Spaniard in the 2013 U.S. Open title match.

Their only previous Beijing ATP encounter came two years ago, when Djokovic cruised 6-3, 6-4 to lift the trophy. They also faced each other in the semifinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with Nadal triumphing 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 on his way to the gold medal.

Nowhere is Djokovic more dominant than at the China Open. His career record stands at 28-0 and he could pass Nadal’s best-ever 31-0 start at Roland Garros if he wins on Sunday and returns to the tournament for a 2016 encore. The world No. 1 has endured absolutely no trouble of any kind while remaining unblemished this week. Djokovic punched his ticket to the last two by easing past Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, John Isner, and David Ferrer.
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For Nadal, simply reaching the final is a stellar result. He always says that, but in this case it is actually true. Not only has the third seed been in disappointing form almost the entire season, but he also had a tough draw in Beijing. After seeing off Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal navigated rough waters in the form of Vasek Pospisil, Jack Sock, and recent nemesis Fabio Fognini. Only Sock has managed to take a set off the 14-time Grand Slam champion, who swiftly erased his one-set quarterfinal deficit.

“I always expect a battle with him,” Djokovic said of Nadal. “I always prepare myself for the battle, no question about it. He’s the player I played the most against in my life. There are no secrets.”

There is also no secret about the current trend of this rivalry. Djokovic has been borderline dominant of late, just as he has been against almost every opponent. If the top seed made short work of Nadal twice on clay, only more of the same can be expected at a place that may the last one anyone would choose to face Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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42 Comments on Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Rafa just needs to build on this match. He’s doing well, moving forward from the slump. If this is slump Rafa watch out for the real Rafa.

  2. Rafa cut down on the errors and this is the best I’ve seen him strike the ball this year. Obviously, Djoko is on his game right now but there is not a lot between them from what I’ve seen in this match. Rafa wasn’t nervous which is a big plus and he went for his shots to the bitter end, things just didn’t go his way.

    • Rafa can do more by playing further up the court. Im surprised he didnt try something different in the second set, i was hoping he could make use of this opportunity to test something different against Novak; staying at the baseline to rally with Novak is not a winning formula, unless one can hit with depth and precision like Stan and forced Novak back on his back foot. Or, play like Fed or Nishi by stepping in and taking time away from Novak.

      Both were poor at the net this match; Rafa was 0 for 5 and Novak 3 for 14 at the net? I see lots of rallying and Novak winning them most of the time. Rafa just lacked precision in his shots, had some of his shots landed in, we would have a more competitive full match. Novak OTOH had no such problem, hes turning into another Fed, who’s well known for his precision tennis.

      Its still a positive match for Rafa despite him losing, as he had shown that Novak had to work hard in set one to win it. He just needs to make changes during a match when things dont work against his opponent (something hes capable of doing all along but not this year).

      • lucky,

        I agree with your analysis. I was surprised that Rafa didn’t try to go to the net more. I don’t see him out hitting Novak from the baseline. Novak will be content to play that kind of game, especially with Rafa in his current form.

        I remember thinking that Rafa was just missing some key shots, while Novak was just making them. That was the key in this match. Novak seems to be in the zone right now. Rafa did well to make him work in the first set. It wasn’t as lopsided as the score might indicate.

  3. Nadal just got bulldozed by Djokovic 6-2 6-2. Nadal played a good match, yet didnt look even remotely capable of troubling Djoker.

  4. Well done Novak!

    I had predicted 63 62 on another tennis forum.

    A few flashes of Nadal’s former brilliance as expected. He played better in the first two sets vs Fognini at the US Open in my opinion.

    As has happened all too much, just too many errors that weren’t there two years ago.

    Novak had another gear to go to had it been needed.

    Nadal still has a long way to go to compete with Novak.

    • The score does not reflect the competitive nature of the match. I was so pleased with Rafa. He was very positive throughout even at match point he did not back off, which is such a good sign. Once or twice his UE at big points just let him down but the balls were marginally out. So I’d give him 7/10 considering where he was at the beginning of the week.

      Hope his foot is OK; obviously he needs to get it checked out to know what’s wrong if anything. It reminds me of his match against Delpo at Wimbledon in 2011.

      Vamos Rafa!

  5. After the match, Rafa said:

    I have to say congratulations to Novak, he’s having one of the best seasons in the history of our sport.

    For me, it’s also been a very positive week.

    I’ve been improving every single match and all the matches are good practice for me and especially the victories (because they) are a lot of positive energy for next year.
    Rafa Nadal fans

  6. I hope Rafa is not injured again…please just not another injury..my hear would not handle it…
    In terms of Rafa’s game I see a lot of positives in this match…I also realized that Rafa did not want to expand all of his energy to fight with this Novak…he will have plenty of time to do it next year…
    I agree luck was on Novak’s side if there is such thing… 🙂
    Novak is like a wall…nobody should engage in rallies with him…if Rafa was able to hit those line shots accurately it would have been a lot more in Rafa’s favor…but he is getting there..

    What this match says is:
    1. Rafa is progressing and will surely be ready for 2016 (bearing no injuries, please!)
    2. Novak is not that invisible…if Rafa hit those angels with precision Novak would have been forced to work much harder for the win
    3. I think Rafa has overcome his nervousness…he is playing more freely and closer to the baseline which is an indication of returning calm and confidence…
    4. Uncle T and the rest of the team will have to work out a better strategy against Novak in the future…Novak is like a wall…he can run forever and defend for ages…Rafa will have to change once again to be able to deal with Novak…

    Let us hope Rafa stays healthy and happy…the victories will come…
    Vamos Rafa!

  7. When I saw the injury it occurred to me that 2015 has been injury free for Rafa for a change, or did I forget some?

    It was wonderful to see Rafa playing this well, for this year. Given that he says he isn’t going to make changes in his team or in working with a psychologist / psychotherapist and the like… some days I am hopeful that he will more or less conquer his anxiety enough next year to resemble the Rafa pre 2014.

  8. Rafael Nadal said he would have to wait and see if he can play next week’s Shanghai Masters after injuring his foot during defeat in the China Open final on Sunday.

    Nadal was moving gingerly after his 6-2, 6-2 loss to top-ranked Novak Djokovic and he will monitor the right foot problem when he flies from Beijing to Shanghai on Monday.

    The 14-time Grand Slam-winner called for the trainer during the second set and he faded towards the end of the match as Djokovic strode towards his sixth title in Beijing.

    Is this true? Did Rafa move gingerly?Did he fade towards the end?

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