Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Rafa 5Novak Djokovic will put his 28-0 lifetime record in Beijing on the line during Sunday’s title match against none other than Rafael Nadal. The blockbuster final was guaranteed after Nadal got past Fabio Fognini on Saturday.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 45th time in their careers when they collide again in the China Open final on Sunday.

Although Nadal still holds a 23-21 edge in the head-to-head series, it has shrunk with each meeting this season. Djokovic prevailed twice on clay; 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the French Open semis. The Serb is 14-7 lifetime against Nadal on hard courts and 3-0 in such matches since falling to the Spaniard in the 2013 U.S. Open title match.

Their only previous Beijing ATP encounter came two years ago, when Djokovic cruised 6-3, 6-4 to lift the trophy. They also faced each other in the semifinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with Nadal triumphing 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 on his way to the gold medal.

Nowhere is Djokovic more dominant than at the China Open. His career record stands at 28-0 and he could pass Nadal’s best-ever 31-0 start at Roland Garros if he wins on Sunday and returns to the tournament for a 2016 encore. The world No. 1 has endured absolutely no trouble of any kind while remaining unblemished this week. Djokovic punched his ticket to the last two by easing past Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, John Isner, and David Ferrer.
Djoker 2
For Nadal, simply reaching the final is a stellar result. He always says that, but in this case it is actually true. Not only has the third seed been in disappointing form almost the entire season, but he also had a tough draw in Beijing. After seeing off Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal navigated rough waters in the form of Vasek Pospisil, Jack Sock, and recent nemesis Fabio Fognini. Only Sock has managed to take a set off the 14-time Grand Slam champion, who swiftly erased his one-set quarterfinal deficit.

“I always expect a battle with him,” Djokovic said of Nadal. “I always prepare myself for the battle, no question about it. He’s the player I played the most against in my life. There are no secrets.”

There is also no secret about the current trend of this rivalry. Djokovic has been borderline dominant of late, just as he has been against almost every opponent. If the top seed made short work of Nadal twice on clay, only more of the same can be expected at a place that may the last one anyone would choose to face Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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36 Comments on Beijing final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. I disagree, Nadal will not get schooled because this will be his 45th match against Djokovic, so he knows very well what’s coming to him. But it is very likely that he will lose, yes.

  2. I can only say that this is the worst Nadal’s form in the final that Novak has ever faced and if anyone can benefit from it is Djokovic…but the thing is, this encounter has little value and means big nothing …Rafa will have his time…being in the finals is a great step forward…being in the finals in Shanghai would be an awesome result…let’s wait and see…

    “if there is no struggle, there is no progress”…

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. My hope is that Rafa can make this competitive. He’s won already by getting to the finals. In a year like this, this is a great result. I don’t see any reason why Novak should falter in this final. He has to be brimming with confidence after beating Fed to win the USO, along with winning Wimbledon and the AO. He’s got Masters wins and has been the dominant player this year. He’s already secured the year end #1 ranking. No suspense there.

    I want Rafa to be at his beat again because when he is, he is the one player who can take down Novak. I don’t think he’s there yet. There is more work to do. I just want Rafa to go out there and play well, be aggressive, go for his shots, serve well. At least make Novak work for it.

      • I agree with both of you. Rafa’s got nothing to lose and he has already gained a lot from this tournament. So glad he faced Fognini and beat him !

        I hope rafa can make this competitive by playing aggressive. I don’t think he is good enough right now to take a set off novak but nothing is impossible of course. May be he will come out relaxed and can play some high risk ball? Unlikely though.

        Novak’s untouchable right now and rafa acknowledged that in his interview. Novak is destroying the field right now.

        THing is, even if rafa were playing at his 2013 level, Novak would still be the favorite in THESE CONDITIONS. Rafa should just use this match as good experience and build confidence for AO 2016.

  4. vamosrafa,

    You make an excellent point in saying that even is Rafa was at his 2013 level, Novak would still be favored on this court and these conditions. That is summing it up quite well. Novak is even tougher to take out on this court. That’s why he has the record he does at this tournament.

    I also agree with you that Rafa should use this match for experience and get a sense of where his game is at against Novak. It’s a good thing to play the best. Then Rafa will know what else has to be done.

    What I really want is for Rafa to get that forehand working consistently again. The tennis channel commies were talking about it during his match with Fog. They noted that Rafa’s not generating the kind of power that he has in the past. Whatever the reason, this has too be addressed during the off season by Rafa and his team.

    I would love to think that Rafa can take a set off Novak, but I am not confident about that. No matter what, this has been a really good week for Rafa and should give him some confidence heading into Shanghai.

  5. Nadal rarely wins these days without much resistance. I don’t see a drastic improvement lately as some believe except for a few scattered flashes of former brilliance.

    I would never suggest that any player retire or write off a player like Nadal from finding his top form again like many wrote off Roger in 2013 (and now look at him contending for slams).

    While he is not my favourite player, I do hope Nadal recovers his game for his sake and for the good of tennis but unless he makes some much needed and long overdue changes to his team, I doubt that it will happen any time soon.

    Novak, as he has done all week (and for the last five years he’s played there) will win tomorrow without much resistance.

  6. Nole in 2 losing seven or less. I see something like 3 and 4 for Novak. He is just too good right now. Rafa can go big with nothing to lose though so he may sneak up and play some really good tennis and prove to be a test.

    • Benny,

      I am inclined to agree with you, but Ricky made a good point about the score not mattering in the end. Rafa getting to the final is a victory in itself. Of course, I would want him to win the title, but there’s a reason that Novak is undefeated at this tournament.

      I would love to see Rafa make Novak work for it. I hope he comes out with calm and just goes for his shots. Then we will see.

  7. Nadal played his best match against Pospisil imo; if he can bring that to the table Djoker will have to lift the lacklustre game he has played so far against weak opposition. Rafa needs to cut down on the UEs, big time, though, but he won’t be feeling any pressure because he knows he is the underdog which will work in his favour.

    Vamos Rafa!

  8. Te 45th match between these two, what I meant is that Rafa will not be schooled, as someone put it, because he’s not new to these circumstances.

    • Oh, yes he does…The whole Serbia will watch the match hoping for yet another comfortable win over Nadal. They praised Novak’s win in that exho like it was a major proof of Novak’s dominance over Rafa. Novak always makes a big deal from his wins over Rafa….and the Serbian press will again go on and on about Novak being untouchable …their focus now is on Novak chasing Fed’s records…they make it look like Rafa’s records are sure thing to be broken by the Serb…it is all so exaggerated…What Novak does is benefiting from the weak tour and Rafa’s slump…it won’t last forever…

  9. Rafa is not hung up about this match at all which is a good thing. He’ll be relaxed:

    Rafa: “I’m happy to be in the final obviously,” It’s a good result for me, very positive one. And tomorrow is a match to enjoy”.

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