Novak Djokovic will put his 28-0 lifetime record in Beijing on the line during Sunday’s title match against none other than Rafael Nadal. The blockbuster final was guaranteed after Nadal got past Fabio Fognini on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 45th time in their careers when they collide again in the China Open final on Sunday.
Although Nadal still holds a 23-21 edge in the head-to-head series, it has shrunk with each meeting this season. Djokovic prevailed twice on clay; 6-3, 6-3 in the Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the French Open semis. The Serb is 14-7 lifetime against Nadal on hard courts and 3-0 in such matches since falling to the Spaniard in the 2013 U.S. Open title match.
Their only previous Beijing ATP encounter came two years ago, when Djokovic cruised 6-3, 6-4 to lift the trophy. They also faced each other in the semifinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with Nadal triumphing 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 on his way to the gold medal.
Nowhere is Djokovic more dominant than at the China Open. His career record stands at 28-0 and he could pass Nadal’s best-ever 31-0 start at Roland Garros if he wins on Sunday and returns to the tournament for a 2016 encore. The world No. 1 has endured absolutely no trouble of any kind while remaining unblemished this week. Djokovic punched his ticket to the last two by easing past Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, John Isner, and David Ferrer.
For Nadal, simply reaching the final is a stellar result. He always says that, but in this case it is actually true. Not only has the third seed been in disappointing form almost the entire season, but he also had a tough draw in Beijing. After seeing off Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal navigated rough waters in the form of Vasek Pospisil, Jack Sock, and recent nemesis Fabio Fognini. Only Sock has managed to take a set off the 14-time Grand Slam champion, who swiftly erased his one-set quarterfinal deficit.
“I always expect a battle with him,” Djokovic said of Nadal. “I always prepare myself for the battle, no question about it. He’s the player I played the most against in my life. There are no secrets.”
There is also no secret about the current trend of this rivalry. Djokovic has been borderline dominant of late, just as he has been against almost every opponent. If the top seed made short work of Nadal twice on clay, only more of the same can be expected at a place that may the last one anyone would choose to face Djokovic.
Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 7 games or fewer
[polldaddy poll=9120736]
hey, there are to say certain toxic comments about Rafa here…I understand praising Novak but please do not do it at Rafa’s expense…
And what is this story about Novak being the GOAT??? That is plain stupid thing to say…the guy has 10 GSs and still has a long way to go! Novak is lucky to be injury free but he cannot play at this level for another 2-3 years…his body will simply give up due to his style of playing those ridiculously long points and running like hell…it will come back at him sooner or later….
Novak does benefit from the weak field. Don’t tell me that it’s the same as for Rafa in 2008-2012 when Fed and Novak were strong opponents and Rafa had to fight them both…Rafa’s worst enemy is not Novak, it’s Rafa’s injuries…it is easy for Novak to dominate the field and be No1 where Rafa plays only half of the season and where Fed has reached the time when he has trouble competing at the best of five match due to his age…but Fed manages to beat Novak in finals and make him work hard even at the age of 35!
Rafa changing his tactics and playing shorter points in the future will confuse Novak…he has mastered Rafa’s game and now Rafa needs to change it once again and to come up with something new…I am sure he will…
And would you all please stop bashing Nadal…it is not his fault that he had to cope with injuries all his life…and then he had to cope with difficult comebacks…and then to meet high expectations from the fans and the public…Rafa has done well to deal with all of this…and the last thing he needs now is his fans analyzing how great Novak is and how Rafa’s game is nowhere near Novak’s…that is something Novak’s fans would never do…why can’t you just enjoy that Rafa has reached yet another final even though his form is not even near his best…
Hope you will all be able to give credit to Rafa when he comes back to his top level…I admire Rafa for being motivated to improve even though the whole world is busy analyzing his downward path…
Vamos Rafa!
Totally agree but you are speaking to deaf ears.
I never said that Novak was the GOAT. You say that he has 10 majors and still has along way to go, true to some extent but only 4 players have more than 10 majors in the open era and 2 of them are retired. Second thing majors are only 1 part of the GOAT debate, surely there is more to it than just the number of majors. Someone being GOAT is more of an opinion than a universal truth, and in this regard there are arguments for and against a number of players, So Please Spare us another GOAT debate.
Currently Rafa is the GOAT by a slight margin over Roger. Had Roger won the USO and gotten his 18th then his margin of four over Rafa would, in my opinion, put him back in that spot.
Novak could be the next GOAT but he’s not there yet. His quickest path by far would be to win the next two slams giving him his 12th (two behind Rafa), a career slam but even more importantly making him the current holder of all four slams, something never achieved by Roger nor Rafa.
no. Fed is goat in terms of accomplishments.
Disagree again. He leads in slams, (3 more) and weeks at No. 1 but Nadal has three more DCs, three more masters series, Olympic Gold.
He also is the only player without a losing record against anyone in the top 30 and his 23-10 domination of Federer (I’d call it an accomplishment) cannot be ignored.
It’s very close though. Agassi agrees.
Also Rafa achieved most of his accomplishments when two other GOAT contenders were at or near their peak.
Roger won his first 12 slams with no other GOAT near/at their peak.
And Fed hasn’t dominated a single slam the way that Rafa has dominated the French Open with nine titles. Fed has seven Wimbledons.
At one time or another, Sampras, Agassi, McEnroe, Djokovic and Murray have been on record saying that either Rafa is the GOAT or that Federer is not the GOAT because of what Rafa has achieved including his domination of Fed.
Quotes and sources available on request.
natashao: “and the last thing he needs now is his fans analyzing how great Novak is and how Rafa’s game is nowhere near Novak’s…”
You are hoping for pigs to fly or for hell to freeze over. Without the Rafa bashing, many have nothing else to say.
It’s not near Novak’s at the moment.
(It was better than Novak’s game today IMO when Rafa was at his peak.)
Neither bashing, thrashing nor trashing.
Just is.
There is something that makes today’s top tennis players less beatable( specially in a best of 5 set format) than top players from the past, r else how do you explain 3 GOAT contenders playing in the same era? I don’t think this has happened in any other popular sport. In golf the 2 GOAT contenders are Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. Jack Nicklaus turned pro in 1961 and won his last major in 1986. Woods Turned pro in 1996, (35 years after Jack Nicklaus) and won his last major in 2007 ( 21 years after Jack Nicklaus had won his last). In Football, the 2 GOAT contenders Pele and Maradona are separated by a generational Gap, Pele is 20 years older than Maradona.
I disagree with your premise,
https://www.quora.com/Among-mens-singles-tennis-players-who-has-the-best-win-percentage-with-respect-to-grand-slams-1
The only slam where an active player has the highest winning percentage (i.e., less beatable is Rafa at the French Open).
Agassi has the highest winning percentage in Australia, Borg at Wimbledon and Sampras at the US Open.
But you have a point that we’ve never witnessed three GOAT contenders simultaneoulsy (Novak will soon be part of that equation no doubt.)
It’s probably a combination of drive, conditioning and science extending Roger’s career and allowing Rafa and Novak to take advantage of this with a little bit of coincidence thrown in for good measure.
Of course we had Roswell and Laver two former co-GOATS that competed at the same time.
Their slam totals are lower because they couldn’t play in as many slams as professionals.
Their slam totals (along with many other former greats) were also lower because many of them skipped Australia.
For example Jimmy Connors only bothered to travel to Australia twice. And McEnroe only played in his first Australian Open in 1983 (i.e., just once before winning his last slam).
Laver couldn’t play in slams for five years because he turned professional. Given that he won the calendar year the year before and repeated that feat seven years later, assuming he would have likely won two slams per year over those five years, he could have had 21 slams.
Similarly Rosewall had eight slams but was banned for 10 years during his prime because of his professional status.
Yes! I don’t know why it’s so hard to grasp this concept of acknowledging that Rafa is not near Novak’s level at this time. Instead of a lecture generally aimed at those who apparently have failed the requisite “Rafa fan test”, I would suggest that they read the interview that Sanju posted earlier on this topic thread. The one in which none other than Uncle Toni said that Rafa is not near Novak at this time. Uh oh! Does that make him a trasher or thrasher or whatever?
I am in good company with Uncle Toni. That’s okay by me! 🙂
Fabio Fognini’s sister rooted for Rafa:
https://twitter.com/Fulvia_Fognini/status/653174662323695616
🙂
It’s about time that someone acknowledged what went on with Laver and the other greats in his ear. It’s true that Laver was banned for five years because he turned professional. At that time amateur status was a requirement. It was quite bizarre to see players banned for playing as pros, which they obviously were. I also agree that Laver could well have had any number of slams, a good deal more than the 11 he has in the record books. Five years is a lot of time to be banned. Rosewall also went through it.
It’s amazing that they were able to do what they did. It’s one reason why I don’t like how they are left out of the discussion of the greatest players ever.
That says a lot about Fognini 🙂
There is rollicking piles of evidence to Support this premise.
1-Novak has 5 Australian open titles and he is 28 he has also won 4 of the last 5. Agassi won 4 and his last title came when he was almost 33, if Djokovic plays till he is 33 he could easily end up with 7 Aus open titles. Agassi didnt play Australian open all the tim, he missed the Australian open a number of times which gives him a higher win percentage.
2-Sampras has the best win percentage at US open,but both Sampras and Federer won 5 US open titles, the only difference being that Federer won 5 in a row, which made him less beatable. Pete won his first title in 1990 and his last came in 2002. Also Pete in1994 even lost to Jaime Yzaga . Imagine Federer( at the height of his career) losing at the US Open to a player whose career high ranking is # 18. Almost impossible. I think 5 tiles in 5 years makes you less beatable than 5 in 13.
3-Federer had a streak of 23 consecutive major semifinal appearances, before this generation the record was 10 by Ivan Lendl, Federer more than doubled his tally. Djokovic also had a streak of 14 consecutive major Semifinals in a row. Federer had the longest streaks of major quarterfinals and Finals.This level of consistency was unthinkable in the past.
4- Federer has the 2 longest hard court winning streaks.
4.1 Nadal has the longest clay court winning streak.
4.2 Federer has the longest Grass court winning streak.
With the possible exception of Nadal at Wimbledon past few years, even if these players lose at a major, they normally lose to the other top players, so effectively they are less beatable.
1 – no ifs in tennis. Agassi was more impressive because of his late age.
2 – Sampras was injured. Federer had the weak era.
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/07/sports/us-open-94-lots-of-pain-little-gain-sampras-upset-by-yzaga.html?pagewanted=all
3 – See Weak Era above.
4.0 – ditto
4.2 – ditto
The above stats in my earlier link speak for themselves especially considering the weak era.
As I said, Nole may be the GOAT within the next 8 months.
Head to Head record is only 1 part of the equation The single biggest criterion while measuring sporting greatness is who achieved more, therefore most of tour rebuttals are illogical, you beat whoever is put in front of you. Nadal has won 64% of his majors on clay and you know that only 1 of 4 or 25 % majors is played on clay. Nadal has won 70% of his career titles on clay, which proves that instead of playing well throughout the year, most of his success has been in a 3 month clay court swing, whereas Djokovic and Federer started playing well at the Australian open and continued to play well till World Tour Finals. Sampras Federer and Djokovic all have done better than Nadal at 3 of the 4 majors, all have been Ranked # 1 for longer Sampras 286 weeks and Federer 302 weeks, Nadal not even half as many weeks as either one of them. Sampras was year end #1 6 times in a row, Nadal never even finished back to back years as # 1 which is a testament to his inconsistency in non clay court events and his injury prone nature. Federer has been ranked # 1 for a whopping 161 more weeks more than Nadal and Sampras 286 weeks, more than twice as long as Nadal. Federer has 6 ATP world Tour Finals titles Sampras 5 Djokovic 4 and Nadal has 0. Davis Cup is a team competition, Tennis is an individual sport. Nadal has also lost to players ranked outside worlds top 100, 4 years in a row at the biggest tennis event, his conquerors were Rosol, Darcis, Kyrgios and Brown, an ignominy that neither Federer nor Djokovic has suffered at any major.
At one time or another, Sampras, Agassi, McEnroe, Djokovic and Murray have been on record agreeing with me and disagreeing with you.
I guess they are “illogical” too then.
Your original premise of the top guys being more difficult to beat vs in the past is not a matter of opinion (as opposed to GOAT, which is). I’ve shown irrefutable facts to the contrary.
Yes it is
Well yes if winning percentage in slams is opinion. :eyeroll:
#RickyMath
By cherry picking random data you can prove anything, top players today are less beatable than they were in the past.
Between Sampras’s first major to his last 18 different players won majors, the breakdown is as below
Pete Sampras 14
Agassi 8
Courier 4
Kuerten 3
Edberg 2
Becker 2
Kafelnikov 2
Bruguera 2
Rafter 2
Hewitt 2
Muster 1
Krajicek 1
Korda 1
Moya 1
Ivanisevic 1
Thomas Johansson 1
Albert Costa 1
Safin 1
Between Federer’s first major and his last How many players won majors? only 10 The breakdown is as below
Federer 17
Nadal 14
Djokovic 10
Murray 2
Stan Wawrinka 2
Roddick 1
Gaudio 1
Safin 1
Del Potro 1
Cilic 1
The same set of 4/5 players have been reaching the finals and semifinals of all majors events , more so before 2014, even Masters series events are rarely won by anybody else, a number of top 10/15 players have no Master series event to their credit, guys like Ferrer and Berdych have been on the tour for a decade and they have 1 each.
I meant between Federer’s first major to 2015.
Cherry picking my asterisk.
Individually, none of them are more beatable as shown in the math from all of the slams over all years, not just cherry picking time periods like you just did..
Hilarious!
Mark philippoussis had 2 wins over Pete at majors, even Karol Kucera beat Pete at 1998 Australian open.
Anecdotal cherry picking.
My link shows the complete picture over time and your premise is false.
Rafa’s career has not ended yet so let’s not talk as if he’s not going to win on surfaces other than clay or not getting back to no.1; no one can be sure of what lies ahead. No one is Goat so it’s a pointless argument Imo.
I do agree that Rafa at his peak was better than Novak at his peak, on clay and on grass, but.Novak is better on the HCs especially the slower ones at the AO. He’s definitely not as dominant at AO than Rafa is at FO or Fed is at Wimbledon, having to fight tooth and nail so often, going the distance there even in earlier rounds in order to win his AO.
how is no one GOAT?
one can list all the pros and cons for the GOAT debate and it will prove nothing…for now only Fed and Rafa are in the GOAT discussion and it will stay that way throughout the next year…unless those of you who speak in favor of Novak surpassing Nadal the very next year expect the Serb to win all 4 GSs and the Olympic Gold…well that is highly unlikely unless Novak is from the other planet and the weak field continues…I bet Rafa, Andy and Fed will have something to say about it too…tennis is so unpredictable…and as Uncle t says the young guns are there for their piece of pie..
I hope Rafa comes back strong next year and wins AO title for the beginning… just to shut everyone up… 🙂
Till he fixes his misfiring FH and wobbly serve, he is not winning any slam. He needs them both back to where they belonged. The errors from the FH are too many these days.
Superstar Rafael Nadal’s opening-match win over Di Wu in Beijing was indicative of the struggles the former No. 1 has had on the 2015 ATP World Tour. Although he won 6-4, 6-4, the Spaniard had to persevere through what is rapidly becoming his Achilles’ heel.
Is it his serve that is most holding him back? Has his return game been the primary culprit? Do we just chalk this up holistically as a package of age and diminishing footwork?
What is this most troublesome factor in Nadal’s game, and how has it prevented him from dominating his opponents the way he had in the previous decade?
By the Numbers
Nadal is sporting a very respectable 46-15 match record for the year, but he has slipped in big matches and has not appeared in a majors semifinal.
We are going to send you to the Rafael Nadal “player stats page” that ATP World Tour has organized for tennis fans who follow the tour. Users may examine his important career statistics and select individual seasons for comparison.
What part of Nadal’s serving or returns was hurting him most? We charted his career results and selected three past outstanding seasons to compare with 2015. All numbers below are percentages, unless noted:
Service Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 career
1st serve points won 72 75 73 72 72
2nd serve points won 60 60 57 55 57
break points saved 67 69 69 62 66
service games won 88 90 88 83 85
service points won 68 70 68 66 67
It’s noteworthy that Nadal’s first serve is equal to 2008 and his career average. This does not appear to be the difference in dropping to No. 7 in the world. His second-serve percentage dips a full 2 percent below his career average, but even this is not enough to fully explain his relative struggles in 2015.
How about break points saved? Now we are getting closer. Nadal is saving only 62 percent, which is a more significant 4 percent drop from his career average and much lower than 2010 and 2013.
But that’s only part of the story.
Return Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 career
1st serve return points won 34 31 35 34 34
2nd serve return points won 55 55 54 54 55
break points converted 45 44 47 43 45
return games won 33 29 34 33 33
return points won 43 40 42 42 42
total points won 55 55 55 54 54
OK, the problem is definitely not service returns. Both categories mirror his career average and 2008. It’s actually a better combination than 2010, his fabled three-Slam year.
But once again, there is a noteworthy glitch that indicates his problem: He is only 43 percent with break points converted, which is significant given that his return points and total points won are also in line with his career averages.
So, we have established that Nadal’s two most important struggles are saving break points and converting break points, the former behind his offensive game and the latter from his defensive game. Is failing to deliver at the most crucial points an indication that he is not delivering under pressure
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2576668-the-biggest-factor-in-rafael-nadals-2015-struggles
That leads us to the most important point of all.
These stats are flawed in that Rafa, on average, is playing lower ranked opponents because he is going out earlier in tournaments so if he was playing as well, his stats should be higher than average against these lower ranked opponents.
I was intrigued by the ATP statistics on Rafa’s game…according to those numbers Rafa is not doing much worse than in his best days…
the only exception is facing more break points…it is “causing him to deal with more pressure. These break points are pressure points that can best explain who wins matches, especially big matches. There’s no question that Nadal was more in control and more dominant in 2010″…
so it’s all mental as we all agreed at some point…
Am not a fan of BR but this article throws an interesting perspective on the ups and downs Rafa is experiencing.
#WorkInProgress
Yes it is all mental as I’ve said for quite some time as Rafa has repeatedly confirmed.
Disagree with the stats analysis though.
I see your point on stats though…but if you argue that Rafa always experienced issues in earlier stages of the tournaments this stats is relevant…we all know that in the past once reaching the later stages of the tournaments Rafa becomes better and his stats improves tremendously even against the top ranked players…this year he was not able to reach later stages in most of those tourneys although as Rafa rightly pointed out he was most of the time so close to winning and managed to lose when he was supposed to win…mental that is…
I just don’t think that the stats are apples-to-apples directly comparable as implied in that article.
I see the GOAT debates rages on but now with a third party in the arguments. In my mind it is a pointless exercise particularly when the arguments include the entire span of tennis: the two eras are not comparable.
But for those of you who indulge in the Goat hypothesis I have two questions.
Q1: which is the more impressive – that Rafa has won two slams on grass (Roger’s favourite surface) whereas Federer has only one slam on clay (Rafa’s favourite surface).
Q2: which is the more impressive – that since Rafa first slam title he won one or more for ten consecutive years ( 2005-2014) whereas Federer won one or more for seven consecutive years
love your questions/arguments… 🙂
Nats: ?
If it amuses people it’s OK by me. I’ve got better things to do than spend my time combing the stats to find spurious arguments to support the definition of greatness. Back in 2008 on TT I said they can stick the Goat crown on Federer’s head for all I care – Rafa is and always will be the KTC (King of Tennis Champions)
While on the subject of greatness, I’ve noticed more and more commentators cannot refer to Djokovic without appending ‘The GREATEST Tennis Player In The WORLD’. Even the MTF at the height of his powers didn’t get that level of sycophantic worship.
Also that Rafa beat Roger to win one of his Wimbledon titles but Fed didn’t have to beat Rafa to win RG.
true indeed…and that Novak managed to beat Rafa in his worst form ever at the RG and yet failed to win the title… 🙂