Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Barcelona final between Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel chooses between the 11-time Barcelona champion and last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters winner.
Ricky: In recent years, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem have been the biggest challengers to Rafael Nadal on clay. It looks like Stefanos Tsitsipas could hold that distinction in 2021 (yes, I know Andrey Rublev beat Nadal in Monte-Carlo, but Tsitsipas is more dangerous long term on this surface than the Russian). With the Greek coming off a title in Monte-Carlo and four more straight-set wins this week, another Barcelona title for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. Normally it is, of course. That being said, the King of Clay probably has the edge. He has raised his level over the last two matches, thus gaining confidence just in time for Sunday. Tsitsipas may have beaten Nadal at the Australian Open, but that required five sets on a surface that doesn’t favor the Spaniard. Nadal still leads the head-to-head series 6-2. Despite Tsitsipas’ current form, picking against Nadal on clay is not something I’m prepared to do quite yet. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: Usually selecting a winner in a Nadal match on clay is a no-brainer, which is to say that picking against the Spaniard is an outrageous decision. Not so this week (or last). Nadal is rusty; like really rusty. He even managed to make what should have been a shellacking of Pablo Carreno Busta in the semis more complicated than it should have been. And his Sunday opponent is absolutely tearing it up on European clay. Tsitsipas hasn’t so much as dropped a set since he set foot on the dirt. And then there’s the five-setter that Tsitispas won over Nadal in Melbourne from two sets down. Nope, there’s nothing easy about this pick. Tsitsipas is the in-form player on clay so far this year…and he just beat Nadal at the AO.
At the same time, Nadal is playing on a court that literally bears his name. The crowd is going to be frantic for him to win, and…well…it is Nadal on clay–rust or not. That is really all there is to it. As I’ve said many times before, I just can’t pick against him on the dirt. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Tsitsipas enters the Barcelona final on a 17-set winning streak. Only four times during this run has he lost more than three games in any set. Meanwhile, Nadal has won Barcelona 11 times and is undefeated in finals at this tournament. Ironically, though, the Spaniard has lost four sets in the last 13 he has played: two in Monte-Carlo vs. Rublev and one each to Ivashka and Nishikori this week in Barcelona. Surprisingly, both players have struggled in matches against top 10 competition in 2021. Nadal is 0-2, including a loss to Tsitsipas at the Australian Open; the Greek is 2-3. Despite uncharacteristically losing sets at venues where he has won convincingly won 11 titles (also in Monte-Carlo), Nadal has corrected course in his last two matches in Barcelona and will enter the final with confidence restored. That factor alone will be enough to make it an even dozen in capital of Catalonia, as well as a return to world No. 2. Nadal in 2: 6-4 7-5.
Cheryl and Ricky both right in their picks.
Both had Rafa losing the second set to win in 3.
Kudos to them!!😀
Wow! Bravo Rafa! So proud of you! I was fearful of the third set knowing Rafa is yet to build up his form but Rafa proves he is from another planet!
Love you, Rafa! 👏👏💕💕
Vamos Champ!
WOuld it be indelicate to point out that my predicted scoreline was AWFULLY close to completely correct?
I just said you and Ricky had him losing the second set Cheryl.
You should boast away😀
Cheryl,
No! You deserve it! Well done!
👍
Wooohoooo! Vamos Rafa! That match damn near gave me a heart attack, but very happy-for-the-win! Oooohhhh, swimming pool time now!!!
Rafa really can kill us his fans! Almost!
Thanks God he wins in the end! He really refuses to lose; I thought after losing the second set, he’s going to lose to the younger and fitter Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas has already won the big title at Monte Carlo, so I hope he’s not too sad about this loss. He can’t win everything; even Rafa at his best on clay couldn’t sweep up all five titles on clay each season.
Tsitsipas will be a force to be reckoned with at the FO, going forward.
So Rafa won from match point down!
Very impressive given he has been low on confidence.
I had to go food shopping before it got too hot here. I don’t think I could have watched that third set. I thought Rafa would lose once it got to a third set. I did follow the score a bit while I was at the store.
When I got home I checked the score and saw that Rafa was serving for the set. I got inside just as he won!
His record in tb’s has been dreadful. Another sign that he is getting older. So I guess we have to enjoy him while we still have him.
He was having trouble closing out matches this week. But I believe this match will help him work out the kinks and the rust. Also a big boost for his confidence. He beat the hottest player right now.
I can relax now. But as I get older it gets harder. I will watch my recording to see that third set.
Vamos Rafa! # 12! 🎈🎉🏆
This match can give rafa the confidence back he needed
A win on his home soil
Folks – how’s the serve now ? I heard match was very high qlty..rafa will be sore tomm..really sore .that was nearly 3.75 hrs
I don’t want tsitsi ,sinner , karatsev anywer near rafa at RG
Well, the good news is that Rafa’s back to #2! Hopefully he’ll keep his ranking heading into RG. After that it’s up to the draw gods. And, as Rafa always says, you can’t win a grand slam without facing tough opponents.
Rafa’s serve can always be better. 🙂 (Well, except at the 2010 USO. And even there he couldn’t figure out how to serve in the last game of the final, lol!)
I see anonymous has disappeared now Rafa has won.
Funny that!😉😉
amy,
Very astute observation!
😘
Rafa in clay court finals is nothing short of a miracle. 60-8!! Of those 8, 4 losses are to djokovic, 2 to roger, 1 to Murray and 1 to zeballos in his 2013 comeback.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mzemek/status/1386347666615914496
This guy is saying rafa was b-..really that low ? Well it’s good then..if he can win a title playing b-, he can work his way up to A..what say ?
Somehow tsitsi shld get to 4 ..playing tsitsi in qf,thiem in SF will be too much…both go to novaks side lol
I don’t agree with that overall rating. He says B- would be generous. Not the way Rafa stole that first set. That was the Rafa we have come to know and love. I think Rafa is still lacking consistency, so I find it unrealistic to give one overall grade.
Rafa had every reason to lose today, even though he would normally be favored in any clay final. Tsitsipas was the hot player coming into this match. Brimming with confidence. Rafa was coming off a quarterfinal loss to Rublev in Monte Carlo, after not having played the last few months with a back injury.
Rafa’s serving has been problematic. He came in lacking physical and mental strength and match play. He was more than rusty.
I am not sure how you can say Rafa played B- and still beat the in form player now. There are intangibles that can factor into a win. Rafa kept fighting and breaking back. The lowest point was when he let the second set slip from his grasp. At that point one might give him a low grade. But he stayed tough in the third set and finished by breaking Tsitsipas.
There was a time when Rafa would have surrendered the match meekly like in 2015 when he was in his slump. He stated in this mentally. He is getting better and this win and the title will only help him. People tend to forget how slowly he came back from the knee injury he had at Indian Wells. That was about two years ago. He did not start looking like his real self on clay until Rome.
Rafa is getting back to his best form. He does not need to play his best now. He needs it at RG. Whatever number grade people want to give overlooks the simple fact that he beat the best player right now.
Rafa will only get better and hopefully peak at RG.
A-.
I thought Rafa started well in the final. He was hitting with depth compared to his matches earlier on. Tsitsipas played well all his matches (hadn’t lost a set before this final since the start of clay season), even finished off the red hot Rublev in the MC final in straight sets! But Rafa as usual these days, had to lose his serve at least once in a set or two and then gave chase in the scoreline. And yet, he had CP in set two and could have won in straight sets had it not for Tsitsipas’s fine serving to push the set to a TB.
Rafa had lost many TBs these days and so with no exception he lost the second set TB. I was expecting a loss for Rafa when the match went three sets, thinking that physically Rafa might not match the younger Tsitsipas, who also had his serve to help him out of troubles.
I’d to hand it to Rafa, who himself had to face a CP, and with a not so reliable serve, might just serve poorly to lose the point, and yet he managed to survive and then went on to win the match instead.
It’s not a poor performance by Rafa, despite his serve not being too reliable; he’s able to produce magnificent shots when he needed to, and against a red hot and confident Tsitsipas.
We can’t compare Rafa now to his younger self; his younger opponents these days are hitting their prime or even peaking in their careers whilst Rafa is no longer at his peak or in his prime. He’s still able to navigate his way through the draw albeit with some difficulties, and beating the red hot younger top grade player in the final, that tells me Rafa still has something in him to be able to fight for more titles esp in this clay season.
Rafa will get better from here during this clay season; this win will give him some confidence (beating the red hot player on clay), and he knows what else he needs to improve on (his serve in particular). I believe that everyone playing against Rafa on clay now will hit as hard as possible (inspired by the way Rublev beat Rafa at MC) so Rafa himself has to hit with depth too, and maybe moves into and plays inside the court more often.
Alhamdulillah Rafa won!…Thanks for the analysis lucky!
I think going into the final,the loss to Tsitsi at AO hovering heavily at the back of his mind too..plus the respect for Tsitsi’s capability & hot form atm also a factor..if not Rafa already can closed out the match in straight sets when he had a chance…
I just knew that with the win Rafa restored the much needed confidence heading to Madrid,Rome & RG…Just hope,he will play efficiently from now on…no more 3hrs 40 minutes match Rafa!…Save the energy as much as possible!…U!!…Urgh!!
I finally watched my recording of the third set of the Barcelona final. Now that I have seen it, I will say that grade of B- is absolutely not accurate for Rafa’s performance. I thought Rafa played his best in that third set. He went toe-to-toe with Tsitsipas. No breaks until it was 5-5. Tsitsipas did have a break point, which would have been match point before that. But Rafa managed to fight it off. Then he was the one who got the break. After a nerve wracking final game where Tsitsipas had break point again, Rafa served it out fir the win.
I thought Rafa’s serving was solid, ground strokes had depth and accuracy. He was mentally there all the way. I also thought his movement was very good. Someone on vamos brigade who is quite knowledgeable about tennis, said that he was bothered by Rafa’s slower movement in Monte Carlo. I noticed that Rafa moved exceptionally well in that third set.
I don’t believe in grades for a player’s performance, but I don’t think that person who said a B- was being generous, was watching the same match. Tsitsipas played very well. He did not give an inch. That third set was a battle of wills. You cannot beat the hottest player on tour with a B- performance.
I think lucky was accurate in her analysis of the match. I think if we must give out grades, then an A- is more accurate. A- or maybe B+. Rafa will take a lot of good things out of this win. He beat the guy who is playing the best now. He stayed in the fight, even after losing the second set. I noticed his body language late in the third set. He was pumped. His fist in the air, his face set with determination. He gutted it out. He’s got his first title this year and the #2 ranking back. It was a marathon, but he hung in there and got it done. He is only going to get better.