Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Barcelona final between Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel chooses between the 11-time Barcelona champion and last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters winner.
Ricky: In recent years, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem have been the biggest challengers to Rafael Nadal on clay. It looks like Stefanos Tsitsipas could hold that distinction in 2021 (yes, I know Andrey Rublev beat Nadal in Monte-Carlo, but Tsitsipas is more dangerous long term on this surface than the Russian). With the Greek coming off a title in Monte-Carlo and four more straight-set wins this week, another Barcelona title for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. Normally it is, of course. That being said, the King of Clay probably has the edge. He has raised his level over the last two matches, thus gaining confidence just in time for Sunday. Tsitsipas may have beaten Nadal at the Australian Open, but that required five sets on a surface that doesn’t favor the Spaniard. Nadal still leads the head-to-head series 6-2. Despite Tsitsipas’ current form, picking against Nadal on clay is not something I’m prepared to do quite yet. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: Usually selecting a winner in a Nadal match on clay is a no-brainer, which is to say that picking against the Spaniard is an outrageous decision. Not so this week (or last). Nadal is rusty; like really rusty. He even managed to make what should have been a shellacking of Pablo Carreno Busta in the semis more complicated than it should have been. And his Sunday opponent is absolutely tearing it up on European clay. Tsitsipas hasn’t so much as dropped a set since he set foot on the dirt. And then there’s the five-setter that Tsitispas won over Nadal in Melbourne from two sets down. Nope, there’s nothing easy about this pick. Tsitsipas is the in-form player on clay so far this year…and he just beat Nadal at the AO.
At the same time, Nadal is playing on a court that literally bears his name. The crowd is going to be frantic for him to win, and…well…it is Nadal on clay–rust or not. That is really all there is to it. As I’ve said many times before, I just can’t pick against him on the dirt. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Tsitsipas enters the Barcelona final on a 17-set winning streak. Only four times during this run has he lost more than three games in any set. Meanwhile, Nadal has won Barcelona 11 times and is undefeated in finals at this tournament. Ironically, though, the Spaniard has lost four sets in the last 13 he has played: two in Monte-Carlo vs. Rublev and one each to Ivashka and Nishikori this week in Barcelona. Surprisingly, both players have struggled in matches against top 10 competition in 2021. Nadal is 0-2, including a loss to Tsitsipas at the Australian Open; the Greek is 2-3. Despite uncharacteristically losing sets at venues where he has won convincingly won 11 titles (also in Monte-Carlo), Nadal has corrected course in his last two matches in Barcelona and will enter the final with confidence restored. That factor alone will be enough to make it an even dozen in capital of Catalonia, as well as a return to world No. 2. Nadal in 2: 6-4 7-5.
who ya got?
Tsitsi 64 67 75
Tsitsipas in 3
It’s almost 50/50. Nadal has the matchup and historical performance edge but Tsitsipas wins on current form and has youth on his side.
This could be a preliminary RG final as well and both players will know it.
Not necessarily. Rafa lost to Thiem at Barcelona two years ago, and then still beat him in Paris a month later.
Tsitsi winning this (like he won against Rafa in Madrid in 2019) won’t make him favourite for RG.
I’m not saying it will make him favorite for RG. I’m saying this is most likely a preliminary final.
preliminary – preceding or done in preparation for something fuller or more important.
Correct, 2 years ago. Again, there’s a few things you’re not taking into account here. You’ll work it out eventually.
What are you talking about!?
He lost to Diego in Rome only 6 months ago then won RG without dropping a set.
Nadal wasn’t showing any of the vulnerability that we’ve been witnessing over the past 6 months and there wasn’t any worthy challengers. A lot has changed since then IMO.
I have a lot of respect for stats, records and biology.
At some point, the name on the trophies start to change. This has always been the way.
I wouldn’t use whatever happens in this match as proof that the next gen are favourites for the Slams, especially RG.
A lot of people seem to be forgetting that Nadal struggled on clay throughout 2014 and 2019 and still won RG. Last year, he hadn’t won a single clay title before RG. Him losing today (to a player he lost to on clay in 2019) won’t change who is the favourite for Paris.
Exactly Arthur.
Think how terrible Rafa was against Diego in Rome last year.
The big 3 seriously increase their level for slams.
You’re making a lot of assumptions here. I never said his match is proof of anything.
All im saying is at some point, the name on the trophies start to change.
You’re using matches from 2014 and 2019 to form a judgment. I think you need to have think about this a bit more.
Relying on history is good when history is still relevant.
Rafa was rusty in MC and some of the rust was evident in the first 2 rounds in Barcelona. His serve was letting him down and he was making a lot of UEs. He was much better against PCB yesterday so we’ll see.
Vamos!
Keep your mind sharp and focused, stay confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ez0bjKTWEAQC5a4?format=jpg
If Nadal wins RG this year, he will be the oldest player to win it.
Andrés Gimeno is the oldest champion of the Open Era. He was 34 years and 9 months old when he won in 1972.
Maybe that’s why the FTA moved it back a month so Nadal could break another record.
What?😏😕
Troll?
Don’t you dare call Rc a troll!
For heaven’s sake!get a grip!
You guys need to lift your game; I’m starting to get bored with continually explaining myself to dummies.
It’s okay, Amy. I was trolling him/her a wee bit. I wanted to hear more on perhaps his inside information on whatever he means by FTA Free Trade Agreement or does he mean French Tennis Federation. What is it?
He’s acting like we all should know what he’s talking about or we are dummies. What a snob!
Why don’t you stop trolling this site? You come on here acting like you think you are smarter than anyone else. You are quite the boor. You don’t know anymore than anyone else here, so put a sock in it!
Haha!
Ah, must be a great trial for you…
What a snob would do. He can’t be bothered, sniff, sniff.
He is an asshole!
I must be missing something here.
NNY,
It’s okay, I was just fooling around. I won’t bother the anon again.
Hope you are watching Rafa. He’s going to outwit his opponent – yes. 5-4 Rafa.
Elizabeth,
I have pretty much had it with this idiot coming on here just to insult people. No one should ever think that they are the one one who knows anything and everyone else is dumb. This character is not here to talk tennis. Just to try to build up the ego by insulting others.
Of course I am watching Rafa! Stressful as usual. Tsitsipas is brimming with confidence so Rafa has his work cut out for him. This is going to be a battle.
That was a great set. Rafa has this. I do not believe Tsitsi has the answer.
Rafa just stole that first set! Unreal! Down a break he had to fight off break points to hold his serve and then broke Tsitsipas to win the first set!
That was something else! Rafa’s still got it.
Hi guys!
Thanx for the updates.
I can’t watch so gr8 to know.
Thanx!😀
Tsitsipas is still very cool after losing the first set. I have to admire that.
Rafa pummelling the ball as he should!
At least Rafa is getting back the break. This is a real battle. But Rafa is showing grit and fight. It’s the best he’s played so far. Winning the title would give him that confidence. Once he starts rolling, he’s hard to stop.
It is easy for Rafa to win when he is on. One more point and this is done.
Tsitsi fighting well. Advantage TsiTsi. Wow, Tsitsi held serve.
Rafa in danger of losing his serve. 15-40. 30-40. Rafa fights him off! 40-40.
Rafa just about to hold serve at 6-5. Rafa makes it!
Looks like tsitsi will return the set stealing favor in the second😞
Oh no .. tb.. rafa sucks at them lately
Tsitsipas doesn’t really like the ball from Nadal. He doesn’t seem to have the same timing that he had against more flatter hitters.
That is something he will need to work on.
He doesn’t hold the ball on his racquet like he did in previous matches. He’s been rushing a fraction today.
It’s a TB, Amy. Tsitsi has fought valiantly in the 2nd set and now the TB. But Rafa hits a massive first serve. And Tsitsi did play well but Rafa is absolutely better. 4-3 Nadal
Rafa needs to close it out here. He can’t let it go to a third set.