Rafael Nadal will continue what has been a dominant Australian Open campaign when he takes the court against Diego Schwartzman for fourth-round action on Sunday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (24) Diego Schwartzman
The competition level at this 2018 Australian Open has not yet ratcheted up enough to trouble Nadal. Based on how the world No. 1 is playing, the competition will have to be seriously special in order to give him any problems at any point during this fortnight. Nadal is through to the fourth round having not dropped a single set while requiring only one tiebreaker in victories over Victor Estrella Burgos, Leonardo Mayer, and Damir Dzumhur. Five of his nine sets have resulted in 6-1 scorelines, including a triple order of breadsticks served to Estrella Burgos. And with that, all of the knee concerns that accompanied Nadal to Melbourne have evaporated into the summer heat.
Up next for the 2009 Australian Open champion and 2017 runner-up on Sunday is a fourth-round showdown against Schwartzman, who is 0-3 in the head-to-head series and 0-7 in total sets. Nadal prevailed on hard courts in 2013 (Acapulco) and 2015 (U.S. Open) before most recently getting the job done 6-4, 6-4 at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. If there is any good news for Schwartzman, it’s that he is playing by far the best tennis of his career these days. The 25-year-old Argentine made a run to the U.S. quarterfinals this past summer and he is back in the second week of another major thanks to Melbourne wins over Dusan Lajovic, Casper Ruud, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. This in an especially strong result for Schwartzman given that he just barely outlasted Ruud 11-9 in the fifth set on Monday. The underdog will have to raise his level considerably if he wants to even take a set off Nadal for the first time ever.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (6) Marin Cilic
Like Schwartzman, Carreno Busta made unexpected noise at the 2017 U.S. Open and is back in business at another hard-court slam. The Spaniard capitalized on a favorable draw to reach the semifinals in New York, where he defeated Schwartzman in the quarters. Perhaps fatigued and also bogged down by the sudden weight of expectations, Carreno Busta all but threw away a berth in the Nitto ATP Finals with a terrible fall (although he did get to play a pair of matches at the O2 Arena after Nadal withdrew). The offseason was apparently just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 11, who has advanced in Melbourne with victories over Jason Kubler, Gilles Simon (via retirement), and Gilles Muller.
A second career meeting with Cilic awaits Carreno Busta on Sunday, with the Croat leading the head-to-head series 1-0 thanks to a 6-0, 7-6(4) win on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016. Although Cilic generally struggles against the very best players in the world (his 2014 U.S. Open triumph notwithstanding), he almost always feasts on opponents ranked below him–to the extent that he has had no difficulty being a staple of the top 10 over the past five years. So far at Melbourne Park the world No. 6 has disposed of Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, and Ryan Harrison, dropping just one set to Pospisil in the process. While Carreno Busta would be favored on clay, Cilic will benefit from a relatively fast hard court and likely make this one-way traffic for the most part.
Pick: Cilic in 4
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Wow, I take back what I said. Diego is playing out of his mind. Didn’t think he’d be able to punch above his weight when facing the force of Rafa… I still believe Rafa will come through this one. Even if he isn’t playing his best, I think his second-to-none fitness and experience will get him through.
To beat Rafa his opponents have to be aggressive so Rafa cannot allow them to be aggressive.
I don’t see how Rafa broke Diego a few times in that second set, but gave it back.
Now he is in a battle. He’s going to have to come up with the goods if he wants to run this match.
Sorry, to WIN this match!
Can’t believe Rafa donating a set like this! Why make his life difficult when being up a break..,Rafa isn’t serving well, can’t take advantage with his serve and let’s Diego dominate the rallies…huh…
Did one of them take a medical timeout? Or did they both just go to the bathroom?
Will the real Rafa please come in!
Vamos!
Rafa needed that! A break and a hold of serve to consolidate! ESPN commies are saying that Diego’s ROS is giving Rafa trouble. He is the leader in breaks of serve. He is certainly putting pressure on Rafa with his return skills. They said that Rafa is only winning 57% of first serves.
Rafa has 39 UE’s.
Diego has 48 UE’s.
Is something up with Rafa? He is uncharacteristically tanking the return games 🙁
Yes he started tanking when he got a break and he did not win one of first to points. Smart from Rafa . His serve has got better . And it was a quick set.
I dont think he would do it since breaking Schwartz would mean he starts serving in the fourth especially considering how adept diego has been at breaking serve.
I hope the knee is not bothering him again.
FInally those aces start coming! Great way to win the set!
Rafa was just being smart in conserving enegy for his service games. He needs to save those knees…
I thought the same thing. Rafa has to conserve energy. Fortunately he was able to serve out the set easily. Aces help!
I hope that Rafa can get the better of Diego and close this out in four sets.
Gosh, Diego looks like he has just started playing. He doesn’t get tired…this turns out to be exhausting match for Rafa! I really hope it doesn’t go to five sets…
Rafa seems to be losing the baseline rallies; he’s ceding court position to Schwartzman, allowing Schwartzman to step inside the court to dictate play.
Why is Rafa hitting CC to Schwartzman’s BH all the time?
Rafa has the break in the fourth now. He should be okay from here, but I think his tactics today have been poor. Standing way back to return second serves, and not being on the baseline during general play? He really should be dictating to Schwartzman, instead he has let Schwartzman dictate a lot. Still, Diego will wear out before Rafa anyway, so he has that as insurance.
Exactly. Schwartzman will go for broke but Rafa is allowing him to dictate play! Rafa is serving to Schwartzman’s FH at the deuce court time and again and the ball keeps coming back and with interest. I don’t see why Rafa cant use more body serves or serving to Schwartzman’s BH more at the deuce court.
I have to say Rafa is having poor strategy against Schwartzman, why drop shot him when he’s so quick around the court? And, why going CC all the time? Maybe Rafa is not too confident about his DTL shots today.
First time since the Muller match has Rafa given me so much anxiety. Something about his body language tells me that his AO jinx is back
Feel like he will need another break to get it done
Geez Schwartzman cracks it for his size. Nadal close to a victory here.
I think 3rd and fourth sets have been better from Rafa. Serve wise, FH accuracy wise. Should have got the second break but anyways he should close it out. He needed a tough match like this . What do other Rafans think ?
Nadal in 4
As long as the tough match is not owing to the knees or any of his other parts, it is great. But certainly the expectations have been temperered
Rafa is just so horrible with his serve and his returns today. He has missed so many chances; this match should be finished with a Rafa win an hour ago, and yet they’re still out there battling! Every Rafa service game is s torture, for him and us.
I see Rafa’s hair sticking out under his bandana, a sign of him feeling stressed!
Diego is playing really well but I want Rafa to win because i backed him to win and over 29.5 games, I also picked the over 29.5 games in other to stay neutral.
Order.
Game over. That was Schwartzman’s last chance. Goodbye Diego 😂
😂!