Rafael Nadal will continue what has been a dominant Australian Open campaign when he takes the court against Diego Schwartzman for fourth-round action on Sunday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (24) Diego Schwartzman
The competition level at this 2018 Australian Open has not yet ratcheted up enough to trouble Nadal. Based on how the world No. 1 is playing, the competition will have to be seriously special in order to give him any problems at any point during this fortnight. Nadal is through to the fourth round having not dropped a single set while requiring only one tiebreaker in victories over Victor Estrella Burgos, Leonardo Mayer, and Damir Dzumhur. Five of his nine sets have resulted in 6-1 scorelines, including a triple order of breadsticks served to Estrella Burgos. And with that, all of the knee concerns that accompanied Nadal to Melbourne have evaporated into the summer heat.
Up next for the 2009 Australian Open champion and 2017 runner-up on Sunday is a fourth-round showdown against Schwartzman, who is 0-3 in the head-to-head series and 0-7 in total sets. Nadal prevailed on hard courts in 2013 (Acapulco) and 2015 (U.S. Open) before most recently getting the job done 6-4, 6-4 at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. If there is any good news for Schwartzman, it’s that he is playing by far the best tennis of his career these days. The 25-year-old Argentine made a run to the U.S. quarterfinals this past summer and he is back in the second week of another major thanks to Melbourne wins over Dusan Lajovic, Casper Ruud, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. This in an especially strong result for Schwartzman given that he just barely outlasted Ruud 11-9 in the fifth set on Monday. The underdog will have to raise his level considerably if he wants to even take a set off Nadal for the first time ever.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (6) Marin Cilic
Like Schwartzman, Carreno Busta made unexpected noise at the 2017 U.S. Open and is back in business at another hard-court slam. The Spaniard capitalized on a favorable draw to reach the semifinals in New York, where he defeated Schwartzman in the quarters. Perhaps fatigued and also bogged down by the sudden weight of expectations, Carreno Busta all but threw away a berth in the Nitto ATP Finals with a terrible fall (although he did get to play a pair of matches at the O2 Arena after Nadal withdrew). The offseason was apparently just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 11, who has advanced in Melbourne with victories over Jason Kubler, Gilles Simon (via retirement), and Gilles Muller.
A second career meeting with Cilic awaits Carreno Busta on Sunday, with the Croat leading the head-to-head series 1-0 thanks to a 6-0, 7-6(4) win on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016. Although Cilic generally struggles against the very best players in the world (his 2014 U.S. Open triumph notwithstanding), he almost always feasts on opponents ranked below him–to the extent that he has had no difficulty being a staple of the top 10 over the past five years. So far at Melbourne Park the world No. 6 has disposed of Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, and Ryan Harrison, dropping just one set to Pospisil in the process. While Carreno Busta would be favored on clay, Cilic will benefit from a relatively fast hard court and likely make this one-way traffic for the most part.
Pick: Cilic in 4
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who ya got?
Nadal and Cilic in straights
Tag in straight and Cilic in four.
Rafa in straight, I mean.
If Nadal continues to play the way he is, he will win the Australian Open 2018.
Of the big three, I think Fed has the easiest R4 opponent; I think Rafa and Djoko have tough R4 opponents in Schwartzman and Chung respectively.
Rafa will have the toughest QF opponent in Cilic if they get to meet. I think with Delpo gone, Fed will have a slightly easier QF opponent in Berdych. Djoko may meet Thiem in the QF, a relatively easy opponent for Djoko on the HC.
Dimi has a tough draw – Rublev followed by Kyrgios, may be Edmund and then Rafa or Cilic to reach the final. He may not survive the next round or the next two or three rounds.
Lucky I agree. Rafa’s and Fed’s life so far has been nice. But with Delpo and Zverev gone Fed’s draw has become much more benign. The only one who might still be able to challenge him is the Djoker, and while he has played well so far, I doubt that Novak is ready to win against Fed, should he make it into the semis. Right now Rafa’s half looks far more dangereous, and the big names are all still there.
But of course Kyrgios and Dimi are the ones’ who could rightly complain, lol! The
4th round opponents for both Rafa and Fed are easy. Only one person can beat Djoker in the next round and thats Djoker himself. I think if Berdych makes thru , he could be a formidable opponent for Fed. Berdych has always played well at AO.
He stretched Fed to 5 here once. He beat Rafa once in 3 sets . Berdych was the only player who could stand toe to toe with Fed in Wimby. I think Berdych more than DelPo can challenge Fed.
If Djoker somehow manages to reach SF, you bet he will be ready.
Berdych’s five set wins over Fed came a long time ago. I highly doubt Berdych will be a tougher task than Del Po would’ve been, given that Del Po has beaten Roger as recently as last US Open and also tested him at his home event in Basel.
I don’t think Rafa’s opponent is very tough, tougher than Fed’s opponent yes, but to me Chung is the worst out of the three. That being said, Novak would’ve expected the hard route given his seeding, and Zverev might actually have been worse for him. Chung can hit hard and will get a lot of balls back, but Zverev with his serve would probably have more ability to take the game out of Novak’s hands. I feel Zverev would’ve been able to up his level against Djokovic, but alas like Kyrgios he tends to implode sometimes when you think he’s coming good.
I think Schwartzman just doesn’t really have the weapons to trouble Rafa. He’ll get into a lot of long rallies, and that should be advantage Nadal all day long. Despite some other success on hard courts, I would be surprised if Schwartzman were able to get a set.
Can’t say much about Fed’s match-up as I know little of his opponent. All I can note is that in my opinion Fed is playing okay at the moment, but not great. Serving well, but needs to drop the UE count.
^When I say Chung is ‘the worst of the three’ I mean the worst opponent to have to *face*.
Oh yeah for sure. Roger has it easy with Fucsovics, Rafa shouldn’t really struggle at all vs Schwartzman, but Chung can make that Djokovic match a really good one.
Dimitrov won’t survive the next few rounds because he’s not getting past Kyrgios. Kyrgios is one of maybe three players left in the draw who could beat Rafa. Dimitrov ain’t one of them.
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident and be strong, Rafa!
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The way berdych dismantled delpo I bet he will give Fed a stern fight. He may not beat him but fed can very well drop a set ..let’s not forget he has beaten him in exactly qf stage only at uso 12 and wimby 10
Fed has won eight straight against Berdych since 2013 and has only dropped a set in two of the matches and has not dropped a set at any of their recent slam meetings. I don’t doubt Berdych will be somewhat tough but I think he did Fed a favor by taking out Del Po.
Del Potro played injured and had nothing left after a long hot match in the 2nd round.
No one will trouble Federer before the final.
#CupcakesAreEverywhere
Kind of like the cupcakes Rafa had at the US Open?
No. Rafa had to play day matches at the USO.
I was referring to the tired Del Po in the semis and Kevin Anderson in the finals. I see your point though.
Its too stupid to think of the matches now. None of the top players Fed, Nadal and Nole have had tough draws in Aus Open. They have got matches under the belt in first four rounds to play themselves in. If someone thinks quarter final is a tough match, he should get a life , quarters in Grand Slam is always a tough match.
So, I know this is the last time you write about Schwartzman on this tournament. 😉
Anyway, it wasn’t Casper Ruud but Lusan Lajovic who he defeated 11-9 in the 5th.
I think if Berdych continues to play this way, I won’t be surprised that he’ll stretch Fed to five sets. It all depends on his belief and his confidence. He screwed up vs Fed every time during crucial moments – lest we forget, he had MP vs Fed at Miami last year but screwed up and lost the match! It always happened to him each time he faced Djoko, Rafa and Fed, lately; he would have more wins over them if he didn’t screw up so often in tense moments.
Schwartzman may not beat Rafa but what I dislike about playing against him is that he’ll grind and grind and Rafa may have to go into war of attrition with him, something that I do hope Rafa can avoid doing.
I think Chung will be tough for Djoko, he may even beat Djoko if Djoko is not careful; I think he can run fast, hits hard and have good court craft, at least better than ARV (who’s so one dimensional). I doubt Zverev is a tougher opponent for Djoko on a quick HC, on clay maybe, because Zverev tends to stay way behind the baseline to hit his big ground strokes, not very effective on fast HCs.
Dimi is not hopeless vs Kyrgios; in a BO5, Dimi will have his chances. If Tsonga without playing any warm up event could almost push Kyrgios to five sets, I don’t see why Dimi couldn’t play better than Tsonga against Kyrgios. They’ve played each other a few times lately, they know what to expect from each other.
Fed in three over Berdych. Delpo was hurting and Fed owns Berdych.
I don’t see Berdych taking Fed to five sets. For sure last year he made it competitive against Fed,at Miami and at Wimby（was the toughest hurdle for Fed there）but he normally fails under pressure and sometimes he’s not tactically wise.
For Rafa,the most important is to win in straight sets,in order to save himself for the finals,Schwartzman is solid from the baseline and as you said,it will be a grinding battle from the baseline and,unless Rafa appears very agressive,he will have to wear down the little Dieguito.
I’m really looking forward to Chung vs Djokovic,they seem to have some similarities in their playstyle,has all the ingredients to be a good match and it can give us a huge hint on what Chung can do in the future as a top player and to see if Djoko’s able to raise his game to the occasion and somehow can get close to his top form for the later rounds.
About Kyrgios vs Dimitrov,it has everything to be a thriller,but given their current form,seeing that Kyrgios is very confident on his game and Dimitrov not so much,I’ll go with Kyrgios to come out on top.
Some of them are taking Berdych lightly but the way he is playing he can do anything. In wimby he is the one who gave Fed the max trouble. I’m happy Fed got to play a tough opponent just before a potential showdown against Novak. Fed is making a lot of unforced errors and he has to cut down going further.
Berdych is playing quite well right now. When I saw the score between him and Del Potro, I though Delpo was injured. But in Del Potro’s interview, he said “I think he was just better than me today,”
“He hit very hard, he served very well and played a smart game. He deserved to win. No excuses today.”
This could mean that Berdych could trouble Roger and possibly beat him.
Rafa’s as-of-late-more-aggressive game will completely overwhelm the diminutive Diego. I see Rafa winning in straight sets, only dropping 5 games. I really don’t see anyone realistically beating Rafa before the final in the form he’s in. Kyrgios can absolutely beat him. He can blow anyone in the world off the court on any given day. He can also just completely stop caring on any given day. Believe me, I would LOVE to see Kyrgios reach his potential and win this tournament or at least make the damn final. Until that happens, though, I have to give the edge to Rafa.
Rafa wakening up now. Hope winning the 1st set will settle him.
Vamos!
break point
Rafa has raised his level of play in this match. Diego has been hanging tough as I thought he would. But Rafa is responding.
That no-look backhand stab volley in the first set was highlight reel material. I expected Diego to put up a fight. But I like the way Rafa has handled the match thus far.
Well I have to take back what I said earlier. Right now I am at a loss for words.
Unbelievable. Rafa always seemed like he would lose the 3rd set.
*2nd set
Nadal in 4
Is Rafa feeling under the weather? He loses the 2nd set in TB after serving for it.
Vamos!
Rafa is playing horribly, he’s doing all the retrieving, allowing Schwartzman to step inside the court to take control of the points. Rafa was up a break but still lost the set in a TB!
He better be more aggressive in the following sets if he wants to win this match; Schwartzman is simply going for broke and has nothing to lose.
Best of 3 now.
Vamos!