Rafael Nadal will continue what has been a dominant Australian Open campaign when he takes the court against Diego Schwartzman for fourth-round action on Sunday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (24) Diego Schwartzman
The competition level at this 2018 Australian Open has not yet ratcheted up enough to trouble Nadal. Based on how the world No. 1 is playing, the competition will have to be seriously special in order to give him any problems at any point during this fortnight. Nadal is through to the fourth round having not dropped a single set while requiring only one tiebreaker in victories over Victor Estrella Burgos, Leonardo Mayer, and Damir Dzumhur. Five of his nine sets have resulted in 6-1 scorelines, including a triple order of breadsticks served to Estrella Burgos. And with that, all of the knee concerns that accompanied Nadal to Melbourne have evaporated into the summer heat.
Up next for the 2009 Australian Open champion and 2017 runner-up on Sunday is a fourth-round showdown against Schwartzman, who is 0-3 in the head-to-head series and 0-7 in total sets. Nadal prevailed on hard courts in 2013 (Acapulco) and 2015 (U.S. Open) before most recently getting the job done 6-4, 6-4 at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. If there is any good news for Schwartzman, it’s that he is playing by far the best tennis of his career these days. The 25-year-old Argentine made a run to the U.S. quarterfinals this past summer and he is back in the second week of another major thanks to Melbourne wins over Dusan Lajovic, Casper Ruud, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. This in an especially strong result for Schwartzman given that he just barely outlasted Ruud 11-9 in the fifth set on Monday. The underdog will have to raise his level considerably if he wants to even take a set off Nadal for the first time ever.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (6) Marin Cilic
Like Schwartzman, Carreno Busta made unexpected noise at the 2017 U.S. Open and is back in business at another hard-court slam. The Spaniard capitalized on a favorable draw to reach the semifinals in New York, where he defeated Schwartzman in the quarters. Perhaps fatigued and also bogged down by the sudden weight of expectations, Carreno Busta all but threw away a berth in the Nitto ATP Finals with a terrible fall (although he did get to play a pair of matches at the O2 Arena after Nadal withdrew). The offseason was apparently just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 11, who has advanced in Melbourne with victories over Jason Kubler, Gilles Simon (via retirement), and Gilles Muller.
A second career meeting with Cilic awaits Carreno Busta on Sunday, with the Croat leading the head-to-head series 1-0 thanks to a 6-0, 7-6(4) win on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016. Although Cilic generally struggles against the very best players in the world (his 2014 U.S. Open triumph notwithstanding), he almost always feasts on opponents ranked below him–to the extent that he has had no difficulty being a staple of the top 10 over the past five years. So far at Melbourne Park the world No. 6 has disposed of Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, and Ryan Harrison, dropping just one set to Pospisil in the process. While Carreno Busta would be favored on clay, Cilic will benefit from a relatively fast hard court and likely make this one-way traffic for the most part.
Pick: Cilic in 4
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I’ve been very sick with a cold and had a fever during last night,so I couldn’t watch Rafa vs Schwartzman 😖. From the highlights,three things come to my mind:
First of all,Rafa wasn’t expecting Diego to serve that well right from the start of the match,however,he couldn’t be returning that far from the baseline,if he’s gonna return like that against Cilic,he will struggle to make a dent on his serve.
In terms of baseline play,Rafa incomprehensibly let Diego dictate it,as many already stated here,played way to defensively and very tentative,completely misfiring from both wings so many times.
Something that I think is clear as water is the fact that Rafa also struggled really hard with the humidity there,which can also help to explain Rafa’s poor level in many moments.
Thank God Rafa will play his QF match at night,I truly believe he’s gonna be ready to face Cilic and pull the win.
Gaviria,
It’s just as well that you didn’t watch because it would have made you feel worse! I am healthy and my nerves were shredded when it was over.
I absolutely agree about the humidity. Rafa seemed out of sorts right from the start. On Vamosbrigade there was someone at the match who was giving updates on the match. He said that it was more humid that day. The ESPN commies were saying that Rafa was talking to his box early in the first set and seemed to be frustrated. Diego came out of the gate guns blazing. Rafa did well to win that first set because I think Diego outplayed him for the most part.
The second set was where things got ugly. Diego was aggressive and Rafa played too defensively. I did not know that Diego had such a good ROS. He put tremendous pressure on Rafa’s serve.
I think this tough match did test Rafa and push him to come up with some great shots to win the match. Rafa knows what to expect from Cilic. For his part Rafa will have to serve well and hold his serve. He will need to be aggressive with his shots. I think he’s ready.
Gaviria – I hope you feel better!
😀