Australian Open R4 preview and prediction: Dimitrov vs. Kyrgios

Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers and for the second time already this season when they battle for a spot in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Sunday.

Kyrgios had been 0-2 in the head-to-head series before he scored a recent 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory in the Brisbane semis. Dimitrov previously got the best of the Australian 7-6(2), 3-6, 7-6(4) at the 2015 Indian Wells Masters and 6-3, 7-5 in last summer’s Cincinnati title match.

Only once has the winner of their matchup failed to eventually win that tournament’s title (2015 Indian Wells). Dimitrov obviously triumphed in Cincinnati, while Kyrgios was the champion in Brisbane two weeks ago. As the latter result suggests, Kyrgios has been the best player on tour in the early stages of this 2018 campaign. The 22-year-old has built on his momentum from his fourth career ATP title with wins in Melbourne over Rogerio Dutra Silva, Viktor Troicki, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, surrendering only one set to Tsonga in the process. Kyrgios’ maturity and improved mental stability was on display throughout a high-quality affair against Tsonga on Friday night, when he treated the home crowd to a 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(5) victory after recovering from a 5-2 deficit in the fourth-set tiebreaker.

“I feel like I am,” the world No. 17 responded when asked if he has been composing himself better of late. “I made quarterfinals here three years ago, (but) I feel like I’m making improvements. The last couple years I feel like I haven’t been physically ready to play these long matches and back it up. I [had] a really good offseason this year. I trained with Lleyton (Hewitt) and the guys in Melbourne for two weeks. Physically I feel really good; just gives me confidence in my game. I know mentally I’m a lot better, as well. Obviously getting a good start in Brisbane helped.”

Dimitrov’s start to the season has been a rocky one on the heels of what was by far the best year of his career in 2017. The world  No. 3 was shaky in Brisbane even before his loss to Kyrgios and he has not yet found his best tennis at Melbourne Park. His draw during the first week featured two qualifiers and a 20-year-old (albeit a great 20-year-old), but to say things have not been easy for him would be an understatement. Following a straight-set beatdown of Dennis Novak, Dimitrov outlasted Mackenzie McDonald 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 0-6, 8-6 and overcame 15 double-faults in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 win over Andrey Rublev.

“I’m not going to give any excuses right now,” the 2017 Aussie Open semifinalist said in his post-match press conference after beating Rublev. “It was just not a good day for me serving-wise. I tried to change the way I was tossing the ball or serving throughout the whole match, but just didn’t work; just didn’t work. I have to accept it and move on. Fifteen double-faults–that’s absolutely unacceptable.”

He will have to improve in the serving department–and in general–if he wants to have chance in what is already his second “road” match against Kyrgios in the first month of the year.

“I’ve played against the local (before), so to speak,” Dimitrov noted. “That’s part of the game. I’m very excited to just play; to go out there and compete. I appreciate my wins now. To get to play another day, I mean, this itself should get you already in a different mindset coming into [the next match].”

Unfortunately for the No. 3 seed, Kyrgios seems to be in a different mindset this season. He has been focused, motivated, and devoid of the nonsense that adversely affected his level of play in past years. His game has responded accordingly, marked by huge serving, big forehands, and a backhand that can do no wrong. Given the ease with which Kyrgios is holding serve, it is hard to see Dimitrov in his current form taking care of his service games with enough consistency to win this one.

Pick: Kyrgios in 4

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