Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

They’re not done yet. And neither is the rivalry.

For the first time at the Australian Open since 2009 and for the first time overall since the 2011 French Open, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be facing each other in a Grand Slam final when they collide on Sunday night at Melbourne Park.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-11 and even owns a somewhat surprising 9-7 edge on hard courts. The Spaniard is 9-2 against Federer in all Grand Slam matches, including 3-0 at the Australian Open. Federer, whose two major wins over Nadal have come at Wimbledon (2006 and 2007), came out on top of their most recent encounter via a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 decision in the 2015 Basel final.

Federer-Nadal XXXV in a major final comes as borderline shock, and not just because both veterans trudged through all of last season without reaching a slam title match. In fact, saying that neither one even made it through all of last season would be more accurate. A wrist injury forced Nadal out of the French Open after two rounds, sidelined him from Wimbledon, and ended his 2016 campaign after two Asian-swing events. A knee issue prevented Federer from playing two of the four slams and he missed the final five months of the year after falling to Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon semifinals.

“That’s where both Rafa and myself said, ‘Okay, enough of this already,’ Federer said of their respective decisions to shut things down early in 2016. “‘Let’s get back to 100 percent, enjoy tennis again, enjoy the practice.’ Not just practice; treatment, practice, treatment, match, treatment. All the time all you’re doing is fighting the fire.”

To say a much-needed offseason has rejuvenated the all-time greats and refueled their fire would be a gross understatement.

Nadal warmed up for 2017 by winning the six-man Abu Dhabi event, taking out Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, and David Goffin along the way. The world No. 9 lost to Raonic in Brisbane, but he avenged that setback with a 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-4 victory over the Canadian in the Aussie Open quarterfinals. In addition to that result, Nadal has advanced by beating Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexander Zverev, Gael Monfils, and Grigor Dimitrov. The 14-time major champion has twice required five sets–first against Zverev and then in an epic 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 struggle with Dimitrov that lasted four hours and 56 minutes on Friday.

Federer has an extra day of rest, as he survived a five-setter of his own against Swiss countryman Stan Wawrinka on Thursday. The 35-year-old preceded that victory with defeats of Jurgen Melzer, Noah Rubin, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Mischa Zverev.

“It’s going to be special,” Federer assured. “It’s the epic battle with Rafa…. I just think he’s an incredible tennis player. He’s got shots that no other one has. When you have that, you are unique and special. Plus he’s got the grit. He’s got the mental and physical ability to sustain a super-high level of play for years and for hours and for weeks. He’s proven that time and time again.”

“(It) is special play with Roger again in a final of a Grand Slam,” Nadal added. “I cannot lie. (It) is great; exciting for me and for both of us that we (are) still there and we (are) still fighting for important events.”

Exciting for them and for everyone else in the tennis world.

“Everyone is going to see that final now,” Dimitrov said during his post-match press conference after losing to Nadal. “Including me. I’m going to watch it for sure. It’s super amazing. It’s great for the sport.”

It should be a great match, too. Nadal has been dominant in the head-to-head series, but the playing field could be evened out by Federer’s extra day of rest, Nadal’s grueling semifinal, and because conditions in Melbourne are slightly faster than usual. That being said, Nadal has proven that–when healthy, as he is now–he can bounce back in style from energy-sapping efforts. He will likely do just that again, and therefore be able to execute his unwavering game-plan against Federer: pound away at the one-handed backhand with spin serves out wide to the ad court and with heavy topspin forehands.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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88 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

  1. Congrats to Federer Fans, amazing 18th title for the man!

    To Rafa fans I say, don’t be sad cause reaching the final is just the start of a wonderful season for Rafa.
    Vamos Rafa!

  2. And folks..Almighty is there..he knows what is the best..He had this one for Roger..He knows what is best for Rafa….If he feels Rafa has it in him to win more..Rafa will..hardwork and perseverance finally pays..look at Roger..from 4.5 years he is at it..lost 3 finals at Wimby & USO..his perseverance and patience paid off finally..hope is not lost for Rafa…

  3. That they sped up the AO so much was a surprise indeed. I think it played a great role in Fed’s success. Many fans will applaud, fans of players like Rafa, Novak and Andy not so much. But we should try to see the glass as half full. Rafa managed to survive until the final and he conquered 3 players in a row who thrive on a fast court, while Andy and Novak got knocked out early.
    I just hope they leave the US Open as it is.

    • Rafa came very close on a court changed to minimize anyone’s chances against one player.

      That’s what popularity buys. It’s a business first and a sport second.

  4. rafa has hardly played fed since fed changed rackets has he? the control on the new racket makes it much easier for him to protect his backhand. also that is feedback to fed making him more self-confident and able to go for his shots.

    • it’s not easy to play big matches when you are so short of match play. ok that applies to fed as well but his default mode/autopilot obviously suits the faster court and when you are short of match play that is what you tend to slip into. also fed has played a lot more big matches in the last 2 years. he’s been in slam finals and so on. that makes a big difference. nearly 3 years for rafa.

    • Amy, I also thought that Roger’s raquet change paid off hugely. Kudos to him for making the transition. Sampras still kicks himself because he didn’t have the guts to go through with it before he went to the seniors tour.
      What’s encouraging: Rafa served so much better during AO. It didn’t pay off in the final, but it probably brought him to the final in the first place.

      • ok thanks for the feedback littlefoot. nice also to meet you for the first time. i couldn’t see the final unfortunately. i do think that carlos will help rafa freshen up his game in hte coming months. rafa has got so stuck in his own default mode and i hope that carlos will be able to coax him out little by little. very glad to hear he is serving better. if he can build on that alone then he is really in business.
        btw, i read what you said about nole below. i am a fan of nole’s as well as rafa! i think nole has a lot of problems and may well struggle for a while. so from rafa’s perspective that is all to the good. getting to the final here will really help him at rg. if he’d gone out early again i dont see how he could win it otherwise.

        • littlefoot..Roger changed his racquet 2 years back..not now..just that Rafa has not played him much with new racquet…AO 2014 they played..but that was too early after Roger made the change..next was Basel 2015 but that was fast indoor court..

          • Sanju AO 2014 court was slower and today’s Rafa would have beaten fed with those conditions including the ball that was used then.

            Not taking anything away from fed. Rafa only beat him twice in those conditions. Cincy and WTF once each.

  5. While the GOAT debate might be over for a lot of tennis fans, the ongoing season will be most interesting. So many questions: will Fed continue full speed or will he rest on his well earned laurels? Can Rafa continue his promissing resurgence? And how will Novak and Andy react?
    I fully expect Novak to come out of his mini slump. Unfortunately this won’t make Rafa’s life any easier. Especially since Rafa’s records will probably be Novak’s main target now, since that is a realistic goal. Like it or not, Roger removed himself into another dimension today IMO.I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t imagine that Rafa or Novak have a realistic chance to chase his records. If Rafa wins two more slams he might bring himself into the conversation again. But I think RG is his best chance. And unfortunately it takes place only once a year 😉 And Novak will be a heavy rival for that title.

    • Rafa is never the Goat in the first place, dont understand this Goat talk about Rafa in the first place.

      I feel if Djoko can win a few more slams, then he can challenge Fed for Goat. If Djoko wins one more FO, one more AO, 2 more Wimbledon and one more USO, he can be Goat. He will then have 2 career slams, won 4 slams in a row, 17 slams. If he returns to no.1 and stays there for one to two years, he can even challenge Fed’s 302 weeks as no.1.

      I hope Djoko comes back to his winning ways. We need someone from his gen to challenge Fed the Goat. Fed can only be clay Goat, so I hope Djoko can do the job and better.

        • Lucky Star, Rafa has been the clay goat for a long time now. But if he had won today a good case could’ve been made that he is or will become the Co-GOAT. A win today would’ve made a big difference.
          We will always have our personal goats. And Rafa has achieved so much more than most experts ever predicted. He has won over lots of hearts during his AO campaign. And he’s hopefully not done, yet. But for the pundits the GOAT debate will be settled for now. Rafa hasn’t lost the GOAT status today since he never was the GOAT in the first place. But IMO he has lost the chance to ever become the GOAT when all is said and done.

      • That’s why I cheer djoko to win slams when Rafa can’t. I thought you said you’d rather fed beat Nole in slam finals. I know most if not all but me here do.

        • Hawkstradamus, I also cheer for Nole when he plays Fed for many reasons. Although that will probably mean he will catch Rafa eventually.

          • I’d prefer Rafa to catch him but if not then Nole.

            Those two have been shown less favouritism and never had a period with virtually no competition like Roger from 2003-07 aside from Rafa on clay.

          • Rafa had much harder competition because he is the middle child so to speak. He has been sandwiched between Roger in front of him and Novak breathing down his neck from behind.
            I have no idea right now how Novak’s future will unfold. After his RG win we all thought that he would continue to collect slams without too much competition. That has’t quite worked out as expected…

        • I don’t cheer for Djoko just to spite Fed or his fans. What I want to see is Rafa’s gen can have someone as good as Fed at least; Rafa’s gen is > Fed’s gen, producing two ATG and two other multi slam winners. So to me, having a Goat contender from Rafa’s gen will be something fitting.

          Too bad Rafa falls by the wayside somehow and not in contention anymore imo. It’s since 2009 that with injuries and dumb scheduling of his that caused him his Goat status; not to forget his AO2011 when he’s going for four in a row.

          Imo, Djoko still has the chance, being an all rounder himself. He can win on any surfaces, doesn’t need to work so hard to win unlike Rafa. He has a great serve and great ROS, all he needs is the desire and mindset to start winning again.

  6. I can’t be too sad. When i think of my low expectations going into this tournament….and Rafa playing a good final and looking healthy and happy afterwards? Yes, I’d have signed for that!
    for him, it’s all about being able to compete with the best. After that he can win or he can lose. Today he lost…tomorrow? Who knows. That’s tennis.

    Congrats to Roger and his fans. He played a great tournament. He’s been very patient over the past few years, and worked hard. He deserved this one, as Rafa said, “a little bit more than me.”

    • Dory (AT 4:48 PM),

      If Rafa had lost in the SF, Rafa haters all over the world would have yelled happily: “Rafa is finished!”

    • Finally I am able to articulate my thoughts on Rafa’s loss. I was up right to the end and it was hard to see Rafa lose the fifth set when he was up a break. So many times that has been the case. He was fighting in every service game. That mentally wears a player down. I think that I could accept it better if Rafa wasn’t so close.

      This was the slam that I wanted for Rafa. The double career slam. He had another chance and that is something you don’t get very often. Nothing will make this okay for me. It is true that Rafa exceeded my expectations, but once he got there I wanted him to win. He’s had it so tough the last few years. This round have been his crowning achievement.

      Novak and Murray are not going anywhere and as long as Rafa is outside the top four he is going to have tough draws. If he can get into the top four before RG then that will be a big help.

      I am not okay with Fed’s MTO’s. if it was Rafa who did that and win, what would Fed fans have been saying? Rafa was gracious in his interview as always, I think that Moya was a great help and will continue to be good for Rafa.

      There are a lot of positives to take out of this tournament. Rafa played some brilliant tennis and had great victories which will give him confidence and belief moving forward.

      I am very you’d of Rafa and incredibly proud to be his fan.

      • Hi NNY,
        I can relate to most of your thoughts. I really wanted Rafa to win this. It would’ve made such a big difference. Seeing that he was so close makes it even harder to accept.
        Re: Roger’s MTOs, I see it a bit differently. I’m not very upset that Roger took them. What upsets me a bit is the general double standard. If Rafa or Novak and Andy had done it there would’ve been a great hue’n cry. That plays into the themes Hawkstradamus was talking about. I also find it interesting that all the former influential Australian champions like Rod Laver or Roy Emerson are massive Fed fans. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the AO courts played so much faster this year. There has actually been a lot of locker room talk about favoritism in connection with Roger. If this really played a role I don’t even think this was a move specifically against Rafa. Nobody expected him to be in this year’s equation, lol! But the Australians might’ve had enough of serial Novak wins.
        All this might sound like sour grapes. Roger had to earn this win this for sure and grab the opportunity. Nobody helped him oncourt. He did great, no doubt about it. But other players have to struggle more than Fed ever had to do.

        • littlefoot,

          I know that I already welcomed you back, but I have to say that it is really a pleasure to chat with you here again!

          I am looking to come to terms with this loss and also to take the good things out of this tournament. There are a lot of positives for Rafa to take away. I do not want that to get lost. I think you make a good point that cubit was anyone but Fed, then there would be a hue and cry. That is the double standard that I dislike. I am just acknowledging some of the innate bias and unfairness in this sport.

          I am not big on conspiracy theories, but I do not think it was coincidence that the surface was made quicker. As you said, that could have been to stop Novak more than Rafa. Nobody could have foreseen Rafa getting to the final.

          Rafa has had a much tougher time if it than Fed. That is why I wanted this win for him, I don’t care one bit about the GOAT debate. I wanted Rafa to go something that had not been done with the career slam.

          Rafa has been thwarted in the past due to injuries. I wanted this for him, I know there is more tennis to be played and Rafa will have more chances to add to his legacy. I don’t know that he will have another shot at the AO.

          Thanks for your words of wisdom as I try to deal with this loss.
          ☹️

        • Court maybe faster and it surely helped Federer. But Rafa was up 3 1 in 5th. Fed literally turned it upside down after that as he played very aggressive and went for winners. He overcame doubts in his mind and went for it.

          So despite the fast court Rafa had it in his hands and lost it.

      • Exactly, it’s hard to watch when Rafa let the match slipped from his grasp. I just hope Rafa can realize that staying so far behind the baseline and counter punching would not land him the major trophies, perhaps only the FO.

        If he really desires one more AO, then he has to do something about it. In the past, Rafa played the least five setters among the big four, these past two years, he had played at least seven of them, winning three losing four, not a good stats.

        If he has to play grueling five setters all the time, chances are he’s not going to win the trophy in the end. He has to beef up his serves, his ROS and looks to move inside the court as much as possible.

        His ROS position is so bad today, hardly threatening Fed’s serves. His serve, when he needed to hold serve while leading, it failed him.

        Perhaps it’s his first slam final after so long, so he’s too cautious and played more passively. I hope he can build on this, even though he lost this, he lost to the great RF, nothing to be ashamed of, just a bit of regret. Maybe, his next slam final, he will make sure he won’t commit the same mistakes again.

        I do hope he improves on grass too, a better serve, more net approaches and shorter points may help him on grass. I really want to see Rafa making all four finals just like Fed and Djoko do/did and winning some. He may not have that many chances anymore going forward.

        • Rafa will never change his style of play…he will never feel comfortable rushing at the net…he approaches the net only if he has to or feels absolutely confident to do so…too bad, I always said he is better at the net than both Novak and Andy…

          • Moya is making him change it and get more aggressive. It will not happen so soon in first grand slam. Results will come.

          • E.g. he did stand close to baseline and played Raonic didn’t he ?

            He has played Dimi before and the earlier Dimi used to stabd 5ft behind baseline. This is a new Dimi. Rafa will be careful now on.

            It’s good he faced this Fed. He will be careful now on when playing him.

          • Yeah, Rafa during his younger days in 2004, wasn’t afraid to come to the net as often as possible. Since his successes on clay, he started staying back and rarely moved forward.

            With surfaces tending to get quicker again these days, perhaps Moya could help him to rediscover the desire to move forward. Fed sets an example here of how approaching the net as often as possible helped him clinch his 5th AO.

  7. Rafa is still technically not even the age that Roger was when he won his second to last major. He still an excellent shot at winning the Aussie again. Also, as I said yesterday, choosing who you think deserves to be called the greatest player of all time is completely subjective. I believe you can make arguments for Fed, Rafa, Novak, Laver, or Sampras for being the greatest of all time. But it my opinion, it is so pointless to question who the single greatest is. If arguments can be made for all those guys, why can’t we just think of it as a five-man “Mount Rushmore” of sorts? Laver, The Godfather old-school two-time Grand Slam guy. Novak, the rubber-body athletic genius. Rafa, the greatest fighter and clay court master. Pistol Pete, the great fast court player and serving master. Federer, the balletic “make hard things look easy” guy who was achieved all-surface greatness. Each one of these guys, for so many different reasons, could be argued as somehow better than all the others. But why complicate things with all that when we can just marvel at each one’s respective greatness, achievements, and unmatched hard work? I love them all! I just wish my man Agassi could be discussed among those guys… 🙂

    • I have never bought into the GOAT argument. I agree that we should celebrate the greatest champions of all time in equal measure. I think the whole GOAT argument is self-indulgent and artificial.

      Rod Laver has always said that there cannot be a GOAT, that a player can only be the greatest of his era. One cannot ignore what Laver contributed to this sport. People say that he only had to play on grass and clay and indoor wood courts. But he won the. Calendar slam twice. Nine of his peers, also great players in their own right, were able to do that. Roy Emerson had the record hit most slams at 12, which lasted for decades.

      Sampras then broke the record and also won 7 Wimbledon titles and was number one for the most weeks until Fed came along. The only thing mussing for him was the Career slam, because he never won RG.

      Rafa had his own achievements and records. Nine titles at RG, Career slam, his unmatched record overall in clay. Fed has the most slams and I don’t think anyone will equal it.

      It is a shame to anoint one player as the greatest of all time. We should acknowledge all of the greatest to ever play this game.

      • Actually, Laver said just last May:

        “I don’t think you put one of those two above the other when you look at their performances. You know what Roger’s record is. But the way that Djokovic has been playing over the last year or so, I would say that Djokovic and Federer are equals.

        “When you look at Djokovic’s performances and his results, you just have to say, ‘Hey, this guy’s unbelievable, and how can you look past him when discussing who is the best ever?'”

        • I know what Laver said recently about Novak and Fed, but in the past he has always said that a player can only be the greatest in his own era.

          Maybe he has since changed his mind, but I don’t see how Novak bumps Rafa.

          • You’re right, Laver never liked Rafa especially. I remember, when Rafa had the chance for the Rafaslam at the AO 2011, he campaigned that only the calendar slam really counts. It’s nice to hear that he spoke so nicely about Novak and his RG win. Novak deserved that.
            As I said already, I do suspect that there was some favoritism in connection with Roger and the Autralian Open officials. All the influential Australian former champions admire Roger. But again: Roger had to go out there and win it against tough competition. Nobody gifted him the trophy. He may have been lucky that Andy went out prematurely. But Rafa was lucky, too, that he didn’t have to face Novak.
            That the two semifinals aren’t scheduled for the same day, is ridiculously unfair. But that isn’t favoritism. It has been like this for quite a while.

          • Good thing about Roger winning this is: he might finally retire. Am already “fed up” with him and all this pathetic circus.

        • My point is that many including Laver like to have an opinion about GOAT. Same for any sport, individual or team.

          Of course it’s personal and subjective.

          Some don’t and some do.

    • I agree and I don’t agree. Yes, we should celebrate them all, and we will. If anything, Rafa’s achievements will be worth even more because he has amassed them during Fed’s and Novak’s eras. I also agree that it is problematic to anoint an intergenerational GOAT because it is almost impossible to compare the respective conditions of different eras. But Rafa definitely had a fighting chance to go down as the best of his generation. That isn’t possible anymore IMO. And while we might celebrate them all, sports doesn’t work that way. Sports is about competition and rankings. That we love and cherish them all, doesn’t change the mechanisms of sports. Otherwise we might as well have given out two trophies today 🙂

      • Rafa can’t have his own era, poor soul. The eras belonged to Fed and followed by Djoko.

        I really think Djoko is the only one who still has a chance to match up to Fed’s greatness, in the numbers at least if not in popularity.

        • Luckystar, I agree. That’s why today’s loss is so hard. Rafa had the chance to make it truly the Fedal era, and he would’ve achieved the Double Career Slam, something Fed will never have.
          Novak’s job got a bit harder today. But he has a remote chance to come at least close to Fed’s slam count. And he certainly has a better chance to achieve the Double Career Slam than Rafa 🙁

  8. It is a really bad trend Rafa is developing at the australian open. He was up a break in 2012 final, against verdasco and today and ending up losing the 5th set 🙁

    I hope rafa plays well enough to win the french from here.

  9. All you people saying that if Rafa can’t win slams, you cheer for Djok, says one thing about you. Whether you like it or not, you watch the sport out of hate for Federer, in the hope that someone surpasses his slam count, and not out of love for your favorite player. Think about that. Your hatred for Federer far exceeds your love for Rafa/Nole. It’s quite sad. Jumping ship is very easy. Akin to soccer fans who are Chelsea fans one day and Man City fans the next. You are not fans, you are glory hunters.

    • Fedfan,

      Talk about being a sore winner! What on earth are you going on about? I have read a very respectful discussion about the match. I don’t see all these people supposedly wanting Novak to win now and somehow sully or threaten Fed’s legacy! I am really surprised at the tone of your post.

      Why don’t you take a chill pill and just enjoy Fed’s victory and stop trying to find a reason to fight with people here!

    • Ah. Thanks for clearing that up fedfan.

      Hope you are enjoying Feds great victory today.

      You are such a true happy fan who would never have a bad word for Rafa!

      Congratulations!

  10. Yeah, Rafa can say that his opponent is/was simply too good. However, why then each time he’s good enough to reach the final, his opponent simply played too good for him to win? Why always the second best? He has to do something, improves something, if not he will keep losing matches like this.

    • I would love to hear from rc. However, I appreciate the civility of the discussion and different points of view expressed here, it’s been a good discussion.

      I wanted to participate because it helps me to handle it when Rafa loses. I have to be grateful that he did go well, but when your guy gets that close it hurts.

  11. I cannot believe old Fed took this. His MTOs his complaining about rafa taking too long. Damn Fed employee dimitrov.I hope Novak gets motivated again …

    • The statistics don’t support that view, Kevin. Apparently it’s 60:40 in favor of those who had one more day’s rest. Mats Wilander has never been a very reliable source, lol!

      • Of course, in many instances it doesn’t matter. If the semis haven’t been that gruelling, then the extra day isn’t an advantage. But still, the AO should eliminate this potential source of disadvantage.

  12. Yeah, I honestly didn’t hear what the context was in terms of was he referring to just the Australian Open, or all slams, or a certain period of time, or what. They also mentioned it on “The Tennis Podcast”, so who knows what the hell they were referring to…

    • I was only referring to the statistics of the AO. As I said, in many years it might not make a big difference. We don’t know if it contributed heavily to Rafa’s loss. And if Fed had played his semis against Wawa also on Friday, then Rafa would still have been more tired today than Fed because he was on court much longer. But it’s such an unnecessary discussion and could easily be avoided. None of the other slams does it. They should just do away with it. But they probably won’t.

  13. I do think it’s funny that it was never much of an issue to anybody before this final, but once it involves Fedal, it’s suddenly a big deal… Just shows even more just how passionate people are about these two guys. Of course if it was reversed and Rafa had the extra day and then won the final, it would suddenly be a big deal to the Pro-Fed people and the the Pro-Nadal people would say it was not an issue. 🙂 These guys are “bigger than Jesus” as John Lennon would say.

    • Kevin, it has always been a bone of contention, not just this year. It always became an issue when the semis were long. I think that Andy has been on the receiving end, too.

      • And I would also criticize it, if Fed had been the victim of this scheduling. I have actually criticized it before. It is just stupid and unfair, no matter who plays in the final.

        • My bad- I should have said that SOME people who are pro-one or the other would have a different reaction depending on the circumstances. There are clearly plenty of people who disagree with it no matter what. I didn’t mean to offend anyone who favors one over the other.

          • You certainly didn’t offend me, Kevin 😉
            I just wanted to clarify that this has been a bone of contention for a long time. It just does’t get discussed every year, because depending on the length of the semis it isn’t always relevant.

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