(17) Roger Federer vs. (9) Rafael Nadal
Ricky (The Grandstand): Nadal vs. Federer?!?!?! And not even to mention Serena vs. Venus?!?!?! In the words of legendary Green Bay Packers’ head coach Vince Lombardi, “What the hell’s going on out here?” The Australian Open is always awesome, but it has been especially so this year. And the last match should not disappoint, because it adds another chapter to one of the greatest rivalries in tennis history. And it will likely be competitive, too. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 23-11, including 9-2 at Grand Slams and 3-0 at the Australian Open. He has even won the majority of their hard-court encounters (9-7). But the playing field could be evened out by two factors: 1) the conditions Down Under are slightly faster than usual, and 2) Nadal has one less day of rest and he is coming off a four-hour and 56-minute battle against Grigor Dimitrov.
Still, the head-to-head dominance is hard to ignore and so, too, are the obvious tactics that Nadal has always used to combat Federer. The Spaniard, who has proven time and again that he can bounce back in style from grueling efforts, will once again pound away at Federer’s one-handed back with spinning serves out wide to the ad court and with heavy topspin forehands. Nadal in 4: 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(5), 7-5.
Joey (Cliff Drysdale Tennis): Federer and Nadal are two of the all-time greatest, and I think most including myself would have said 12 months ago that the two meeting in a major final was impossible. While this match is going to be fantastic for the sport of tennis, I don’t think it will be a great match overall. At the end of the day, any time Nadal steps on a non-indoor court with Federer, he is going to play at a ridiculous level. The pattern is as simple as it gets; just rip heavy forehands cross court. He was hitting that shot well against Dimitrov, and there’s literally no reason to think anything different will happen on Sunday.
Federer’s run to the final was incredible, and this result is stunning at 35 years old. But he is a heavy, heavy underdog. I see the match going something like this: first set Federer serves well, is holding easily, gets into a tiebreaker. Nadal hits one of his signature banana passing shots from 20 feet behind the baseline to win the ‘breaker and then forces Federer to play at least eight good backhands in every baseline rally. He runs away with the final two sets. And don’t even think about Nadal having fitness problems here. If either of the two were to have an issue, it would be Federer. Nadal in 3: 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-3.
Using one of his favorite adjectives, Nadal’s serve in this year’s tournament has been “amazing.” In his semifinal victory against Dimitrov, we saw Nadal continue to stymie the Bulgarian with several off-speed serves. Federer has seen this act before and it creates lack of rhythm for the 17-time major champion. Federer’s break-point conversion rate through six matches is an impressive 48 percent. Historically, Federer has created more trouble for himself throughout his career for failing to take care of business in breaking his opponent when the opportunity arises. Nadal’s effective serving will continue and as a result, it will not allow Federer to have too many break points on Sunday. Many times Federer has outplayed Nadal convincingly through two sets, only to find himself level at a set apiece–a maddening proposition that we will see yet again in this final. Nadal in 5: 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.
All of that said, this is a fast hard court and Federer has played fantastic tennis throughout the tournament. Nadal still hasn’t won a hard-court title in three years, and Federer is hardly an easy opponent. This is a tough match to predict, but I’ll go with Federer in four sets on this surface and in these conditions. Federer in 4: 7-6(5), 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
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I’m not sure regarding this one!
Form wise, game wise both are almost at same level.
Just because of the H2H & matchup advantage, I think Rafa will eke this one out.
Only way for Roger to win this one would be to arrive on the court tomorrow with the same level of play that he displayed against Berdych. That day he was really zoned in.
If he can have a similar zoned in day tomorrow, he has a very good chance to win this one. Else, we all know the similar script.
Rafa in 4!
but much easier to be zoned in against Berdych!
not exactly Ricky!
Federer sometimes has those days where he just feels well!
Doesn’t always depends on his opponents
I can always be zoned in playing against 8 year olds.
Quality of opponents matters.
yup
Nny..where r u??Miss chatting with u today..
Mira Andi,
I am here! I am feeling much better after getting some sleep! I have to be ready for the final!
Yesterday I just watched Rafa’s match over and over. It was a wonderful experience.
I am relaxed now and not nervous. I will probably get nervous as the final gets closer, I am just do happy to see Rafa in a slam final again. I really want him to win the double career slam. He has another chance. This is the one I want hit him. I hope he has enough left to get it done.
Nny!!…Miss u lots!!He he…Oh My God!It was an amazing match isn’t it?But,in a way i’m glad u didn’t watch it live Nny..it’s pure h@#$ almost the entire match!But,that is what makes it so special Nny..the rollercoaster of mixed emotion that we’ve been riding the entire match!And in the end to see rafa dropped to the floor,crying!!Oh my God!!That was the most amazing feeling in the world Nny!!…I cried like a kid myself!!He he…Oh btw..is this can help soothe your worries Nny?
http://www.marca.com/tenis/open-australia/2017/01/28/588c6752ca47417c4f8b4605.html
Wish Roger doing the same like Serene to hit new GS champion records in men tennis. That would put someone in men tennis equal to Jack nicklaus though it is from different sport.
He can do this if he hits above 70% first serve like he did to Murray in Wimbledon semi. However when he plays Rafa, normally he hits below 50% first serve.
Rafa in 3, the most would be in 4 sets.
If you look at Nadal ,he diffused the serve weapon of all top players so far here. Dmitrov serve is more quicker than Federer’s. Dmitrov is young and he ran all the court in the last match non stop. This is where difference comes in place. Serve and volley is dangerous against Nadal, he returns so well. So Federer is left with only choice to fight at the back of the court. Recent inauguration at Nadal’s foundation and Federer’s visit there are all business related outside tennis. They are just rivals using advertisements to improvise their own business. Nadal needs this Grandslam and coming french very badly. We have Djokovic,Zverev and Murray ready to win other grandslams. Federer was lucky not to face Murray here. Nadal will continue his attacking style and will not give free points to Federer like he did to dmitrov.
Federer serving spots are excellent..bails him out of trouble almost always.
Agree..His serve slowed down by 15-20 compared to 2009..Federer is waiting for moment to grab a grandslam by lucky draws,mentally fragile players and Djoker’s loss of form..He is not expecting Nadal to be here..
And Federer fought off the toughest opponent in Wawrinka so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t have beaten Murray. Everyone’s caught up in the fact he’s had a break from the game since last summer, but if anything that has mentally put him in a very good and strong place.
You say Fed was lucky not to face Murray, well Rafa was lucky not to face Djoko and he has been close to going out on two occasions, once to Dimitrov who is not a particularly mentally tough player.
Fed won’t win from the back of the court I agree, but judging by the tournament so far Nadal is going to offer more break points than Fed. Like Djoko, Nadal is incredibly good at saving those but you can’t be considered a clear favourite if you’re always digging yourself out of trouble like that. That’s one reason why a lot of people fancy Federer to win this time.
Good analysis
Fedal matches have been highly anticipated since their early years. Sometimes one of them doesn’t show up with something close to their best for, various reasons. Let’s hope both do show up with a high level and unhampered… that would wonderful to see… one more super Fedal final at a slam.
As to my pick I posted it earlier: who knows? but I have Rafa in 4.
Who cares for past champions predictions..they were rating better for Federer in all of the 34 past matches played :))..
Rafa in 4
Good night all. Good luck for watching Final and Hope you all give me good news of Rafa’s win when I get up.
Dimitrov played waybetter than how Federer played against Rafa in 2009 AUS open semifinal..Though Rafa lost d final to Stan….So I think it is advantage Rafa for sure in four sets….D factors such as fatigue (for playing gruelling match against Dimitrov), 1day less rest, fast hardcourt) are baseless when Rafa plays Federer….But those factors do come in play playing with Stan or Djokovic….If one asked whom he would have preferred in d final between Stan & Fed…He would certainly say Federer…..It is certainly 70- 30 in favour of Rafa….D only outside chance Federer has is if he wins D 1st set.
All those experts who are saying that Federer needs to serve and volley, come to D net more often have all been tried in d past by Fed but with no success..Coz Rafa has terrific returns when someone closes on net…..D only new thing that Fed can try is BH slice to counter Rafa’s FH.