Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

They’re not done yet. And neither is the rivalry.

For the first time at the Australian Open since 2009 and for the first time overall since the 2011 French Open, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be facing each other in a Grand Slam final when they collide on Sunday night at Melbourne Park.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-11 and even owns a somewhat surprising 9-7 edge on hard courts. The Spaniard is 9-2 against Federer in all Grand Slam matches, including 3-0 at the Australian Open. Federer, whose two major wins over Nadal have come at Wimbledon (2006 and 2007), came out on top of their most recent encounter via a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 decision in the 2015 Basel final.

Federer-Nadal XXXV in a major final comes as borderline shock, and not just because both veterans trudged through all of last season without reaching a slam title match. In fact, saying that neither one even made it through all of last season would be more accurate. A wrist injury forced Nadal out of the French Open after two rounds, sidelined him from Wimbledon, and ended his 2016 campaign after two Asian-swing events. A knee issue prevented Federer from playing two of the four slams and he missed the final five months of the year after falling to Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon semifinals.

“That’s where both Rafa and myself said, ‘Okay, enough of this already,’ Federer said of their respective decisions to shut things down early in 2016. “‘Let’s get back to 100 percent, enjoy tennis again, enjoy the practice.’ Not just practice; treatment, practice, treatment, match, treatment. All the time all you’re doing is fighting the fire.”

To say a much-needed offseason has rejuvenated the all-time greats and refueled their fire would be a gross understatement.

Nadal warmed up for 2017 by winning the six-man Abu Dhabi event, taking out Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, and David Goffin along the way. The world No. 9 lost to Raonic in Brisbane, but he avenged that setback with a 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-4 victory over the Canadian in the Aussie Open quarterfinals. In addition to that result, Nadal has advanced by beating Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexander Zverev, Gael Monfils, and Grigor Dimitrov. The 14-time major champion has twice required five sets–first against Zverev and then in an epic 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 struggle with Dimitrov that lasted four hours and 56 minutes on Friday.

Federer has an extra day of rest, as he survived a five-setter of his own against Swiss countryman Stan Wawrinka on Thursday. The 35-year-old preceded that victory with defeats of Jurgen Melzer, Noah Rubin, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Mischa Zverev.

“It’s going to be special,” Federer assured. “It’s the epic battle with Rafa…. I just think he’s an incredible tennis player. He’s got shots that no other one has. When you have that, you are unique and special. Plus he’s got the grit. He’s got the mental and physical ability to sustain a super-high level of play for years and for hours and for weeks. He’s proven that time and time again.”

“(It) is special play with Roger again in a final of a Grand Slam,” Nadal added. “I cannot lie. (It) is great; exciting for me and for both of us that we (are) still there and we (are) still fighting for important events.”

Exciting for them and for everyone else in the tennis world.

“Everyone is going to see that final now,” Dimitrov said during his post-match press conference after losing to Nadal. “Including me. I’m going to watch it for sure. It’s super amazing. It’s great for the sport.”

It should be a great match, too. Nadal has been dominant in the head-to-head series, but the playing field could be evened out by Federer’s extra day of rest, Nadal’s grueling semifinal, and because conditions in Melbourne are slightly faster than usual. That being said, Nadal has proven that–when healthy, as he is now–he can bounce back in style from energy-sapping efforts. He will likely do just that again, and therefore be able to execute his unwavering game-plan against Federer: pound away at the one-handed backhand with spin serves out wide to the ad court and with heavy topspin forehands.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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60 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

    • Rafa is a lot more grateful than his fans, it’s time they showed some humility. What we witnessed today was the greatest player with a backhand better than ever, playing possibly the best tennis someone can play in a 5th set if a final. Just appreciate it.

    • What a performance from both players. I couldn’t imagine it was possible for Federer to play like that in the 5th set, that was sublime and Rafa’s will was not enough. But he’s such a great guy, i hope he wins the French and stays fit.

      No matter who you support it is unbelievable that Federer has a backhand now as good as Wawrinka or Dimitrov, it won him the match no question.

    • You sound like such a sore loser, Liz. This is the way the Australian Open has run their tournament for a very long time, and no player has ever claimed that it was a reason for their loss. Rafa was never ever affected by being too tired to play. It went five sets, they both came back from injury, it was very close, please give both players the respect they deserve…

  1. Congrats Roger…well deserved..you deserved this.

    Federer proved everyone wrong..winning 3 5 sets in the tourney..beating his greatest nemesis to win his 18th and coming from a break down..was stupendous.

    I was telling from the begining..I smelt Federer will win this…No 17 seed history repeating…

    Rafa: Dont want to say anything..Tough luck. Double career slam jinx continues

  2. Roger was the better player. He not played well but also showed the mental resilience to come back from a break down. Definitely he deserves it

  3. Congrats to Fed! I think it’s fated that he wins no.18 here.

    I’m really disappointed with the way Rafa played, esp the fifth set. To me he literally threw away the trophy. So the stupid gameplan of grinding didn’t work.

    Fed was almost on one leg, and Rafa let the lead slipped away! Come on, why kept hitting to Fed’s BH when Fed was hitting so many winners from that wing??

    So Fed moves ahead to 18 whilst Rafa stays put at 14. Commies to Team Rafa.

    • Rafa came with no tactic..strategy..same old FH to BH..had he not seen Roger was hitting his BH very well..

      Roger was crushing winners off that wing.

      Roger was not on 1 leg..he was moving very well..

    • Agree with u luckystar…rafa is not aggresive enough today..He can’t win if he’s only wants to rally and not try looking for winner..he’s got hours to solve rog’s question but not really came up with an aggressive plan..I’m with u…very disappointed by the way he lose..If he played like he’s against Milos..i think he will win today..

    • To be fair Nadal played the way he has all tournament, it was Federer who has thought out new ideas. Coming into the game Federer had many more winners in the tournament. Rafa has been playing a very defensive game all Open – critically it is Fed mindset and his improved BH that got him through, he created 11 break points in the final set.

      Well played to both of them, good luck to Rafa in the French, but today fed played a god-like fifth set.

  4. i couldn’t watch the match. mira andi have a massive hug from me. i am so so sorry. dont’ know what happened? xxxxxxxxx
    congrats to fed and his fans.

          • love you to mira, am sorry i couldn’t watch with you. i was awake all night because of a party next door!! so i slept in.
            feelign a bit cross with rafa for letting this one go tbh….
            another hug and kiss for you darling…xxx

          • Yeah amy..I mean he’s got a break early in 5th sets but…like he did so many times nowadays letting get away from him just like that..But..despite that…I’m really glad,because of rafa,i found u and Nny!!WOOOOHOOOO!!!..Hugs and kisses from me as well amy…YOU’RE AWESOME!!!!

          • you are awesome too mira. such a good heart and i hope you don’t feel too bad. xxx so rafa gave up a break in the fifth? don’t know what to think really….
            hawks did say before the tourney fed was going to win….

          • I had a very strong feeling given recent struggles by Rafa and Nole, Murray response as No 1 and Feds traditional hold over him plus the conditions playing so fast.

            Would have loved to be proven wrong.

          • He he..thanks amy..although i don’t know which part of me that u find awesome,..and i feel bad atm amy…when rafa won the other day..i was cried and when he lose today,i’m also jibbering and slobbering..oh well…Rog really played tennis out of this world today amy…and he deserved to win..

          • thanks darling, that’s very sweet of you. am glad you are feeling a bit better. let’s focus on roland garros now hey and look to the future? no point thinking of what might have been.
            am very glad i met you here as wellxxxxx

          • yeah amy..hey did u watch the whole match?i’ve never seen such a display from Rog before..he’s awesome..rafa seems no idea how to cope with his gameplan..but then i already knew,that he’s going to blasted rafa with all gun blazing.i’m just surprised that rafa seems awe struck by his tactics..

          • i’m really really sorry you feel so bad mira. remember that getting to the final here will really help rafa at roland garros. that’s the goal now.
            you have a good heart and are sweet and kind and generous. that’s pretty awesome as far as i am concerned. hugsxxxx

  5. well,it was not meant to be..he’s got his chance and couldn’t convert..It’s a pleasure to chat with u Nny,natashao,VR,amy,ramara,vmk1,atul,sanju..and others..Now,i will go pour my heartache by kicking and slamming anything that is in front of me!!Uhuk!uhuk!uhuk!

  6. Atleast now we will never hear..seen this before..Rafa will crush Roger etc…

    And Rafa will also never take Roger lightly again..he will adapt

    • Since when Rafa takes Fed lightly? It’s more Rafa’s fans taking Fed lightly.

      The way Rafa plays, I doubt he can adapt anymore. He certainly was not adapting during the match, kept doing the same thing even when it failed. If he’s chasing from behind in the fifth and lost I understand, but he was leading 4-3 and yet let it slipped away. He’s no longer the champion he once was, I mean Fed had an MTO, wasn’t playing well and only his serve was helping him and yet Rafa let it slipped away. It’s no wonder Rafa looking very unhappy during the ceremony.

      • Yeah, Once again Rafa lost the match he should have won… I knew it was not over when Rafa was up a break in the fifth…Rafa should be disappointed and sad, but he was proud and stood with dignity at the ceremony.,

        The court was too fast for Rafa, he had one day less to rest, his draw was tougher…it all aligned for Fed…but Fed played great tennis after all and deserved to win…

        • Fed was great no doubt, but even then Rafa broke him to lead in the fifth. In the past Rafa won’t let this lead slipped away; I mean this Fed was no Djoko, and Fed had an MTO.

          Rafa had himself to blame, in the third set when Fed’s was serving first and he was immediately under pressure facing BP, What did Rafa do? He insisted on standing so far back at the ad court to return serve, and Fed served an ace out wide, to save not one but three BPs the same way! Rafa didn’t even bother to change his court position during all those serves, it’s like he was challenging Fed to serve that way again and again and true enough, Fed won all three of his serves that way! If Rafa changed up, he might have a chance to break serve and then he would be ahead.

          We saw in the fourth set that when Rafa was ahead, Fed would commit so many UEs because when Rafa was ahead, he would cast doubts in Fed’s head and messed with it. Rafa just didn’t know how to take his chances when they were presented to him.

          • But Fed actively won those points, they are forced errors.

            Look at the stats, forced errors were equal. Federer made more unforced errors but he made many more winners.

            Rafa was not attacking enough at the right moments, he ha sbeen over reliant on minimising his own unforced errors – that was clear in previous games against Zverev, Monfils and Dimitrov.

          • He had a double fault and missed with his FHDTL, the latter technically being forced but shots he makes routinely when 100%.

            He’s come a long way from where he was but other than Wimbledon where his best still took him five close sets, this was the fastest court they met in a slam and Rafa has to be perfect to beat him there.

            Full credit to fed. He played lights out when it mattered than Rafa in this one and at almost 36 that’s incredible against a determined Rafa.

          • Rafa is playing a more defensive game than ever, and he did that throughout the tournament. It’s very much a one off now when he pulls out a winning forehand. What kept him in the tournament was a superb first serve at crucial moments but you only need one moment for it not to bail you out. Could have happened 3-4 15-40 against Dimitrov, and did happen 3-4 today. In contrast Federer is hitting twice as many winners and his backhand is a force in its own right now. It was Fed’s unforced errors that kept Rafa in it, but to everyone’s surprise he made very few in the final set.

          • That’s my point. He’s getting there especially with his belief and confidence still needs to improve to allow him to play more aggressively as he did from 2008-2013.

            But he’s already further along than I’d expected. With recent form leading up to AO and having to face Zverev, Monfils and Raonic (and potentially Nole) I didn’t expect to see him in the finals so soon.

            I’m proud of him for that.

          • Yes there are times in the past when Rafa played better than this tournament, but today he played exactly the way he has done throughout the two weeks and it wasn’t enough. But he’s a cert for the French playing with such a low unforced error count.

      • No Rafa was adapting but he didn’t adapt enough. He changed his serving patterns and started going for more DTL and IO forehands but should have done that a bit more. Short CC forehands got him killed though.

        I am happy with rafa’s backhand though!

        • Yes BH was solid..but CC FH killed him..Rafa kept crushing winners from that BH

          I think the 5 hour semi finally had an effect..He was not very quick and many shots were short..Also he was again standing far behind baseline..even on second serves

          What difference you saw in Rafas strategy VR? I thought nothing

          Also what different strategy did Roger adopt?

          What lesson will Rafa take out of this?

        • Nah, he didn’t adapt but insisted on hitting to Fed’s BH when clearly Fed was hitting so many winners from that wing. I mean, it’s as if the Rafa team had only one game plan for Rafa – hit to Fed’s BH no matter what. The plan of dragging the match to go the distance also failed, because it’s Rafa who’s getting tired too, not just Fed.

          Rafa’s serve is his major weakness, followed by his mindset. It’s strange that when his back was against the wall, he would hit some incredible serves. So, why in the first place he doesn’t serve that way more often and makes life easier for himself? Why insist on playing counter punching on this quicker surface and allowed Fed all the time and court space to work with?

          If Rafa wanted to run along the baseline, then fine, why not ran along closer to the baseline and not that far away? He was reacting to Fed’s game and not thinking of imposing his own game on Fed. On this quicker court, its doomed to fail.

    • I didn’t even feel confident that Rafa would win when he’s got one less day to rest after a gruelling 5 set match, why would Rafa be sure he would win? Just enjoy your Fed’s win.

  7. Rafa only fought..but he never adjusted to what Roger was throwing at him…That was shocking..he adapts but never did..imagine hitting to Rogers BH all the time when he was executing that wing very well.

    And 3 1 up and losing 5 games in a row in 5th..same script like 2012 final..up a break and misses an easy shot and its over from there.

    • Exactly! We saw that Fed was having so many winners from the BH, why Rafa still insisted on going there? He wasn’t adapting! It’s like other than going to the BH, he really didn’t know what to do!

  8. Rafa will stop at one at the AO. I think Dimitrov will be a force to be reckoned with at the AO from next year on.

    I think this AO will be Fed’s last slam win. I just hope Rafa can win the FO this year and moves ahead to 15 slams, ahead of Sampras.

    • What every tennis fan wants to see is a Federer v Dimitrov final before Rog retires. Maybe this year at Wimbledon if Dimy gets a nice draw – that would be amazing.

      But in terms of Fed it’s absurd to say this is his last win, really come on. He’s probably being installed as favourite for Wimbledon as we speak, and why wouldn’t he believe it. He has quite clearly been the best player at this tournament whether you watched it or just read the stats.

      It’s incredible for tennis that these two are back.

  9. Rafa coming into the tournament without playing for half a year and makes the final and loses in a 5 setter against a red hot federer. How is that disappointing.

    Just hope Rafa stays injury free and continues his progress. Good things lie ahead

  10. The better player on the day wins.
    Fed threw whatever he had into the match knowing this might be his last opportunity. He might retire soon.

    Commiserations to Rafans. Congratulations to Fed.

    Looking forward to RG2017.

    • Yes the better player on the day, and the best player throughout the tournament. At 0-2 in the fifth set was the first time Fed was in real danger of losing the whole tournament and he answered it quite sensationally.

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