Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

They’re not done yet. And neither is the rivalry.

For the first time at the Australian Open since 2009 and for the first time overall since the 2011 French Open, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be facing each other in a Grand Slam final when they collide on Sunday night at Melbourne Park.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-11 and even owns a somewhat surprising 9-7 edge on hard courts. The Spaniard is 9-2 against Federer in all Grand Slam matches, including 3-0 at the Australian Open. Federer, whose two major wins over Nadal have come at Wimbledon (2006 and 2007), came out on top of their most recent encounter via a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 decision in the 2015 Basel final.

Federer-Nadal XXXV in a major final comes as borderline shock, and not just because both veterans trudged through all of last season without reaching a slam title match. In fact, saying that neither one even made it through all of last season would be more accurate. A wrist injury forced Nadal out of the French Open after two rounds, sidelined him from Wimbledon, and ended his 2016 campaign after two Asian-swing events. A knee issue prevented Federer from playing two of the four slams and he missed the final five months of the year after falling to Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon semifinals.

“That’s where both Rafa and myself said, ‘Okay, enough of this already,’ Federer said of their respective decisions to shut things down early in 2016. “‘Let’s get back to 100 percent, enjoy tennis again, enjoy the practice.’ Not just practice; treatment, practice, treatment, match, treatment. All the time all you’re doing is fighting the fire.”

To say a much-needed offseason has rejuvenated the all-time greats and refueled their fire would be a gross understatement.

Nadal warmed up for 2017 by winning the six-man Abu Dhabi event, taking out Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, and David Goffin along the way. The world No. 9 lost to Raonic in Brisbane, but he avenged that setback with a 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-4 victory over the Canadian in the Aussie Open quarterfinals. In addition to that result, Nadal has advanced by beating Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexander Zverev, Gael Monfils, and Grigor Dimitrov. The 14-time major champion has twice required five sets–first against Zverev and then in an epic 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 struggle with Dimitrov that lasted four hours and 56 minutes on Friday.

Federer has an extra day of rest, as he survived a five-setter of his own against Swiss countryman Stan Wawrinka on Thursday. The 35-year-old preceded that victory with defeats of Jurgen Melzer, Noah Rubin, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Mischa Zverev.

“It’s going to be special,” Federer assured. “It’s the epic battle with Rafa…. I just think he’s an incredible tennis player. He’s got shots that no other one has. When you have that, you are unique and special. Plus he’s got the grit. He’s got the mental and physical ability to sustain a super-high level of play for years and for hours and for weeks. He’s proven that time and time again.”

“(It) is special play with Roger again in a final of a Grand Slam,” Nadal added. “I cannot lie. (It) is great; exciting for me and for both of us that we (are) still there and we (are) still fighting for important events.”

Exciting for them and for everyone else in the tennis world.

“Everyone is going to see that final now,” Dimitrov said during his post-match press conference after losing to Nadal. “Including me. I’m going to watch it for sure. It’s super amazing. It’s great for the sport.”

It should be a great match, too. Nadal has been dominant in the head-to-head series, but the playing field could be evened out by Federer’s extra day of rest, Nadal’s grueling semifinal, and because conditions in Melbourne are slightly faster than usual. That being said, Nadal has proven that–when healthy, as he is now–he can bounce back in style from energy-sapping efforts. He will likely do just that again, and therefore be able to execute his unwavering game-plan against Federer: pound away at the one-handed backhand with spin serves out wide to the ad court and with heavy topspin forehands.

Pick: Nadal in 4

[polldaddy poll=9649129]
[polldaddy poll=9649130]

51 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

    • The Sneak Attack by Federer (SABF) will be up for the supreme test. With Rafa’s deep returns, Fed will have fewer opportunities to execute SABF; but ultimately, it will depend on the precision, pace and depth of Nadal’s returns and Fed’s first serve percentages.

  1. I just enjoy this beautiful match !
    This is a great page of the history of the tenis !
    Thank you, Roger, thank you, Rafa for these amazing years of tennis ! 🙂

  2. Kind of hard to call. Rafa in 4.

    If Rafa wins this one it will help assuage the pain if you want to call it that of the many slams he lost matches in or could not appear in due to injury, including that terrible back ache in an AO final.

  3. RAFA in 4. Federer has not or will not change his style of game. Nadal knows the weakness to exploit. Nadal will recover and come back strongly and his ghost reflection in 2nd set against Dmitrov where he failed to convert lot of chances ,will not happen against Federer. Nadal likes to meet Federer rather Djokovic.everyone knows.You will see a high brand of tennis from Nadal soon.

    • I don’t disagree with your prediction. However, you’re very wrong to say say that Roger hasn’t changed his game. He is attacking the net a higher rate that he ever has. Overall even more aggressive than he has in past years. The question is whether or not it will matter against a guy who has had his number in slams for so long…

  4. Nadal in 4. Its a bad matchup for Fed and Nadal raises his game and plays with little fear against Fed.

    Nadal should be 1.50 odds not 1.80

  5. Yeah, Rafa is definitely tired and will need miracle recovery once again. Maestro is well rested.

    However, Rafa is adrenaline player! I can’t think of any higher dose of adrenaline than this: winning grueling SFs against an on-fire amazing opponent, reaches the final after being plagued with injuries and lack of confidence for more than two years, to meet once again his greatest rival ever…

    Vamos Rafa!

        • it was long time ago and 3rd was in 2014 when federer was not playing as good as he is today(I think he was fighting back injury) and courts are faster than before. so thought fed will have upper hand.Happy to be wrong here. I am fan of both but want Rafa to win as he will achieve more ( 15th – second best + 2 career) for fed its just No 18

        • He doesn’t necessarily have the upper hand, but he has a decent shot because he is playing much more aggressively and attacking the net more than in past years. He also will be helped if the court continues to play relatively quickly. Does not mean that Roger is the favorite by any means, though!

          • The thing is , his tactics made him went five sets to beat Kei and five sets to beat Stan, what make you think he can beat Rafa presumably in five sets too?

            The only concern for Rafa is his almost five hours match vs Dimitrov and hence the recovery issue. However, knowing Rafa, he will do his very best, tired or not. The last two three games in the fifth set va Dimi, Rafa had once again displayed his guts and thinking tennis brain, able to save three BPs in the eighth game to level at 4-4, then went for his shots to break Dimi in the next game, and finally played steadily to win on his third MP despite Dimi’s fearless fanning off two MPs.

            Rafa may not play at his best in this SF match, but come final day, he will put on a very good show vs Fed.

  6. Do you remember the speech uncle T gave to Rafa before the AO 2009 final, when in the morning of that Sunday Rafa could not really move (when he woke up he said there is no way he can play a slam final today)? He told him that if a person is running from a fire they will run as fast as they can to save their life. And that given this possibility of winning that AO is precious so why not fight as if your life depended on it? It is just some physical pain for a few hours and then it’s over. Paraphrasing from memory.

    I wonder what kinds of pep talks Moya and uncle T will give Rafa.

    • In same 2009 semifinals Federer beaten Murray in straight sets under 1 hour and 45 mins. Now Federer also played little more than 3 hrs against wawrinka. so obviously ,he must be worried too..I hope his medical timeout in last match is not a fake one..

        • Sorry mistyped the name :)..Federer new serve and volley technique used in 30% of his game play in match is going to cause more trouble to himself..Nadal like to attack the serve-volley players eg. Mischa Zverev in a more recent match. I think even Djokovic wants Nadal to beat Federer :))..Federer justifying his 2008 wimbledon loss is due to 2008 French open Nadal crushing is meaningless..he will pay for it..

    • I am sure they will say..this is your last chance to win your double career slam..it had come before in 2014..you were unfortunate to get injured then..this time you have to take it as oppty wont come again..go get it for yourself if you want the double career slam.

      • Conditions were tougher too. It was a night match but both players were using ice bags during changeovers. Rafa’s 30, not 40, and obviously in excellent condition.

  7. Fed has to do exactly what he did against other players Not think too much. Prepared to go the distance. Not rush to the net – but pick his points. Fight for every point as the last point. GOD only can help him win.

    • Dimitrov’s game is similar to Fed’s, and Dimitrov is 10 years younger than Fed. The intensity of the Nadal-Dimitrov match is clearly higher than for Fed-Wawrinka. If Nadal can sustain that intensity in the Final, he is the favourite.

  8. The Verdasco match was lot more physical. Many long rallies. Today, not so much. So hopefully Rafa should recover and be ready.

    • I agree about the match with Nando. That was a brutally physical match. This match was not like that one.

      But it is true that Rafa is 8 years older. We just have to hope that Rafa can recover.

      • Nny!How r u feeling today?AWESOME??INCREDIBLE??WONDERFUL??ON CLOUD NINE??IN 7th HEAVEN??ha ha ha…Whichever it is..i’m pretty pretty sure that you’re the most happiest women alive today!!He he..ME TOO!!

  9. I have been waiting for the law of averages to catch up with this rivalry. Since the 2011 french, I have always thought that Roger will catch a break and win a match against Rafa in a GS.
    Hopefully Rafa can work his magic one more time

  10. It’s a hard one to call, both players coming back after a long time out of sight… Fed has been very impressive but this win will give Nadal a lot of confidence – Dimitrov would have won today against any other player – I think the key will be in Nadal’s ability to recover well. If he does he’ll probably break Fed’s will no matter what he throws at him as we’ve seen so many times before.

  11. Hopefully Federer will win!! He is the best ever and needs this victory more to cement it. Nadal is painful to watch and a crybaby.

  12. Jordan, as soon as you insult a player your comment becomes totally irrelevant and devoid of any consideration. Be constructive, positive and respectful and grow up a little, it will do you good.

  13. Gotta admit,i want Rog to win his 18th..God knows he deserve it..but at the same time i want Rafa win his 15th as well…So,i will let fate and luck make a decision for me..I will be happy for both of them…But that doesn’t mean i can’t predict the match…And Rafa will win in 4 or 5 of coz!!!I know rafa less rest and played an 1hr and 30 min[more or less] than Roger but hey,he’s 5 years younger than Rog and their match ups favoured rafa..and it’s still not going to change this time around..

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.