Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

They’re not done yet. And neither is the rivalry.

For the first time at the Australian Open since 2009 and for the first time overall since the 2011 French Open, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be facing each other in a Grand Slam final when they collide on Sunday night at Melbourne Park.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-11 and even owns a somewhat surprising 9-7 edge on hard courts. The Spaniard is 9-2 against Federer in all Grand Slam matches, including 3-0 at the Australian Open. Federer, whose two major wins over Nadal have come at Wimbledon (2006 and 2007), came out on top of their most recent encounter via a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 decision in the 2015 Basel final.

Federer-Nadal XXXV in a major final comes as borderline shock, and not just because both veterans trudged through all of last season without reaching a slam title match. In fact, saying that neither one even made it through all of last season would be more accurate. A wrist injury forced Nadal out of the French Open after two rounds, sidelined him from Wimbledon, and ended his 2016 campaign after two Asian-swing events. A knee issue prevented Federer from playing two of the four slams and he missed the final five months of the year after falling to Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon semifinals.

“That’s where both Rafa and myself said, ‘Okay, enough of this already,’ Federer said of their respective decisions to shut things down early in 2016. “‘Let’s get back to 100 percent, enjoy tennis again, enjoy the practice.’ Not just practice; treatment, practice, treatment, match, treatment. All the time all you’re doing is fighting the fire.”

To say a much-needed offseason has rejuvenated the all-time greats and refueled their fire would be a gross understatement.

Nadal warmed up for 2017 by winning the six-man Abu Dhabi event, taking out Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, and David Goffin along the way. The world No. 9 lost to Raonic in Brisbane, but he avenged that setback with a 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-4 victory over the Canadian in the Aussie Open quarterfinals. In addition to that result, Nadal has advanced by beating Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexander Zverev, Gael Monfils, and Grigor Dimitrov. The 14-time major champion has twice required five sets–first against Zverev and then in an epic 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 struggle with Dimitrov that lasted four hours and 56 minutes on Friday.

Federer has an extra day of rest, as he survived a five-setter of his own against Swiss countryman Stan Wawrinka on Thursday. The 35-year-old preceded that victory with defeats of Jurgen Melzer, Noah Rubin, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Mischa Zverev.

“It’s going to be special,” Federer assured. “It’s the epic battle with Rafa…. I just think he’s an incredible tennis player. He’s got shots that no other one has. When you have that, you are unique and special. Plus he’s got the grit. He’s got the mental and physical ability to sustain a super-high level of play for years and for hours and for weeks. He’s proven that time and time again.”

“(It) is special play with Roger again in a final of a Grand Slam,” Nadal added. “I cannot lie. (It) is great; exciting for me and for both of us that we (are) still there and we (are) still fighting for important events.”

Exciting for them and for everyone else in the tennis world.

“Everyone is going to see that final now,” Dimitrov said during his post-match press conference after losing to Nadal. “Including me. I’m going to watch it for sure. It’s super amazing. It’s great for the sport.”

It should be a great match, too. Nadal has been dominant in the head-to-head series, but the playing field could be evened out by Federer’s extra day of rest, Nadal’s grueling semifinal, and because conditions in Melbourne are slightly faster than usual. That being said, Nadal has proven that–when healthy, as he is now–he can bounce back in style from energy-sapping efforts. He will likely do just that again, and therefore be able to execute his unwavering game-plan against Federer: pound away at the one-handed backhand with spin serves out wide to the ad court and with heavy topspin forehands.

Pick: Nadal in 4

[polldaddy poll=9649129]
[polldaddy poll=9649130]

49 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

  1. NNY
    Thanks for the welcome back. Was having horrendous computer problems and then Christmas and New Year intervened. Am now spending three months with my sister in Spain (she has made a miraculous recovery from the major stroke she had two years ago) and we are glued to the drama unfolding in Melbourne!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Hope you are planning to stay up all night to watch it live………………..

    • ed,

      I am glad that you are okay! I was getting worried! I am sorry to hear about your sister, but hope she is recovering well. I am glad that you are with her.

      Just glad to know you are healthy and well! Computer problems seem to plague all of us at one time or another.

      It’s been so emotional watching Rafa this week! There is no way I am missing this final! I will try to get a few hours sleep before the match so I can stay awake!

      Looking forward to getting through it with you and others here!
      ?

  2. Hello guys. I’ve been thinking…Just want to know your opinion on this. How do we, as human beings decide which player we like most and we root for? I think it’s an emotional matter. I think we somehow associate ourselves with that specific player’s personality and his/her human traits. I assume maybe 1 out of 10 of tennis fans chooses his favorite player judging on technique, strictly tennis skills basically…
    I admire and respect both players, but I am a Roger fan. I noticed that Rafa’s fans are more active in commenting and posting. On the other side, Fed fans seem to be more introvert and more passive. He gets more votes in the polls, but less active users passionately writing about him. This is interesting.
    That being said, I like Fed’s beauty and style, but I think he could have done more, not necessary in terms of career titles, but dealing with both Rafa and Nole on a mental level. I remember 2014 Wimbledon against Nole and then US Open same year. It was too painful. He deserved to get one of them.
    I think Federer will be ready mentally this time. The only concern is his physicality and stamina. On the other side I feel like there is a lot of pressure on Rafa this time. Let’s enjoy this together, no matter whose side we are. Greetings to Nadal fans. Hopefully the best will win. Really want the one who will play better to win. Later then, is easier to accept it. It’s not as frustrating. You know what I mean 🙂

    • I definitely agree personal association is a factor. Playing style. On-court attitude. If they are good person both on and off the court. And of course results. Winning.

    • Hey Eugene…A very balanced and fair post!Loved it!!..I will be happy for Rog if he win today..but i will fly to the moon and back again if rafa win..Yeah..LET’S THE BEST WIN!!!!BRING IT ON GUYS!!

    • USO 2014 Fed didn’t manage to reach the final, lost to Cilic in the SF; its USO2015 that you’re referring to I supposed.

      I do think at both FO and USO2015, Djoko clearly had the upper hand, so there’s nothing Fed should regret about for not winning. Djoko was just that good in 2015, reaching 15 finals in 16 events played.

      The one that Fed came close to winning was Wimbledon 2015, the match that went five sets; still, I did not have the feeling watching the match then, that Fed would win in the end. If I’m not wrong, Fed was the one doing catch ups the whole match, leveled the match at two sets apiece and so the match went the distance.

      To me, if your opponent played better than you to win the match, your opponent deserved the win, so I’m not one to say that Fed deserved winning one after reaching all those finals. If anything, Murray was the one deserving at least one AO, after reaching the final five times but ended up having nothing to show for it!

      I’m a Rafa fan, and I find his tennis beautiful to watch but one has to have a strong heart watching his matches. Many times, he snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. His tennis is not about beautiful strokes, rather, it’s about smartness of his tennis brain. His strokes are unique, Fed spoke about the uniqueness too, so no one could replicate the way Rafa plays.

      His is not about all out attack, but rather it’s about neutralizing opponents’ attacks and finding loopholes in their games and then exploiting them.

      While Fed’s game is about suffocating opponents with his first strike tennis, Rafa’s is about strategies to suffocate opponents with his counterattacks before making his own attacks.

      • Natashao…That’s a GREAT GREAT sign i tell u!…I already knew he will be able to bounced back magnificently from Dimi’s game..And to think that he wants to prolong the match against Roger!!Urgh!!..And we fans thinking that he’s already screwed because of fatigue!!We should NEVER EVER DOUBTED RAFA!!..VAMOS RAFA!!

          • On game, set & mats they just said Rafa skipped his practice session today and canceled his press conference…they find it strange they say..,and I am worried now… ☹️

          • I was worried, too, when I heard this. But unless Team Rafa started to use the tactics of spreading completely fake news (not impossible of course), it’s apparently not quite true. Marca also said that Rafa was fine in the morning and just cut his practice session short a bit. Which would be perfectly normal.

          • natashao…Hey no need to worry..I think it’s really good rafa did that..he just want to focus to his preparation for the final and get as much rest as possible and free his mind from unnecessary task[and we know,all that nonsense about interview and appearance is NOT NECESSARY at this crucial time]..The players just want to focus to the big game ahead and not to the trivial thing like that..No worries okay?Rafa’s got the biggest and the best team that would take care of him magnificently..Trust him natashao…

          • Rafa hasn’t cancelled pressers. He cancelled interviews, which is very different. Apparently he simply wanted to sleep some more, lol!

          • I think it’s just mind game from the Rafa camp, telling everyone that Rafa is fit physically and rearing to go.

            Anyway, Fed won’t be dragging the match but he will serve quickly and at least finishes his own service games quickly to save energy.

  3. thanks everybody for their warm welcome back.
    Hawkstradamus, I can sympathize with your Rafa induced ptss, lol! Ho would’ve thought that his apparent greatest strength would so spectacularly collapse?? There was always more going on in his head psychology wise than we have been aware of. Otherwise this can’t be adequately explained. And now his mental strength seems to come back? Fascinating stuff. But I still don’t trust this newest development completely.
    I want him to win tomorrow badly. But if he can’t do it, so be it. You can hardly argue with Fed’s enduring success. A loss today won’t diminish Rafa’s current status, but a win would increase it greatly.

    • Littlefoot definitely. Even Rafa spoke to his demons very candidly. He has worked very hard and seems to be getting them under control but he is trusting himself both on terms off physical and mental strength again

      He’s had a few lapses and hopefully won’t have too many tomorrow.

  4. In regard to this “GOAT” stuff, I’ve always felt like arguments can be made for both Federer or Nadal being the “greatest player of all-time”… That phrase good have so many different meanings on so many different levels. Does it mean who had the most successful career? Does it mean who would win if said players played each other at their absolute top-dollar peak? On which surface? Is it just strictly slam results? Or does it include wire-to-wire tour results across all surfaces? Some people might say that Nadal has to be the GOAT strictly because he has beaten Federer many more times than Federer has beaten him. Someone might counter that Rafa was unquestionably by far the most unbeatable player ever on any single surface, proven by the fact that he only lost FOUR times on clay between Monte Carlo 2005 and Madrid 2011, that 10-9 on all non-clay surfaces actually paints a different view of their rivalry, that Federer led their non-clay h2h until 2013. Someone could argue for Federer’s success across all surfaces, pointing to his 6 title haul on indoor hard courts at the Tour Finals where it’s only top 8 players. Someone could counter that they believe indoor hard courts aren’t as important as the other surfaces, since there is no all-indoor slam. Someone could say that Rafa’s ninja-warrior, pounding the pavement, absolutely beating the shit out his opponent style has to be the greatest ever. Someone could counter than Federer’s glide around the court, “making hard things look easy” is more impressive. Then, four years from now, someone else could say, “Novak has won 20 slams, with at least 4 at each slam!” (Maybe unlikely, but you get the point)

    These arguments can go on and on and on. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and that’s what I like about it! Personally, no one can ever convince me that one is DEFINITIVELY the sole Goat, unless one of them ends up with twenty-something slams, at least 3 at each slam. 🙂 It’s similar to classical Ethics arguments- there are so many ways to look at a certain dilemma…

    As lame as it sounds, I like the idea of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer- arguably the two greatest players of the modern game!

    • Agreed Kevin. Completely subjective. Very little beteeen them.

      I also agree that we align ourselves with the personalities and traits of the players we most respect and identify with.

      • I have always believed that there can’t be one GOAT. However, I understand others wanting to discuss it. I think Rod Laver was right when he says that a player can only be the greatest in his era. I think it is very subjective and can be emotional. We have had great champions throughout the decades in this sport. Each great champion has made unique contributions to the sport. Trying to anoint one player as the best of all time, really doesn’t give respect to the great champions over the years.

        I think Rafa and Fed are both the greatest of their era. It does not have to be one or the other. They both have records that will never be equaled.

        • I couldn’t agree with you more, NNY. I do believe, to the point FG just made, that when all is said and done with this era, Novak will be considered on the same level with Fed and Rafa. Honestly, I think the argument could be made that he already is on that level. For me personally, once a player from this era’s slam count reaches the teens, they have to be considered an all-time great. I love the idea of Sampras, Rafa, Novak, Roger, and Laver all being held in the highest regard. 🙂 But I also love the players who tend to be, for any number of reasons (mostly slam count if we’re honest), considered all-time greats, but not quite on that five-man “Mt. Rushmore” of sorts. Guys like Borg, Agassi (my personal favorite player), Connors, Lendl, McEnroe, Edberg, Wilander, Becker, etc. And that’s just Open-era!

          I gotta give a special shout out to my man Jim Courier, who in my opinion doesn’t get enough credit for how much ass he kicked in the early-nineties… That guy wasn’t really born with the natural talent that a lot of the other great champions had, but he came seemingly out of nowhere and just bulldozed his way to 4 major titles in less than three years. I always thought his two Aussie titles were awesome, where he beat Edberg in back-to-back finals. In ’92, Edberg was world #1 and has just beat Courier in the US Open finals a few months earlier. But Courier didn’t back down and beat Edberg in the Aussie final, effectively taking the number one ranking from him. And then he did it again the next year!

          Wow, I got way too off topic there haha, but I can’t help it! I just love this sport and its history so damn much. I could ramble for hours!

    • We cannot count Novak out. 12 slams with 4 different GS trophies at his home is no small feat which both Fedal could not achieve.

      He rules h2h towards all other members in big 4 plus Wawrinka. His domination is unparalleled in 2015 to mid 2016.

      30 masters and counting. I have strong belief Novak could reach 15 or even more slams, 40+ masters judging from history. He would be back if we look at just few weeks back when he played Andy at Doha.

      One loss to Istomin does not really count. Comparatively, Rafa was not performing well for 2 years in GS, and he is back now. Novak would at least get one slam this 2017.

  5. I wish to see a more balanced h2h between the big 3, that would make tennis competition more exciting. Rafa-Fed is too predictable 65-35, that has always been the trend, though on clay and indoor hard court the trend is different.

    Rafa-Nole though overall is about 50-50, but on different season it could be 85-15 in either favour.

    Fed-Nole overall is also about 50-50, but there is a line separating the favor between the two from and before 2011.

    If Rafa wins, the trend continues. I wish Roger would win. That will make 2017 really exciting and bring even more interest to the sport. RG for Rafa-Nole-Wawa to fight for. In Wimbledon all big four have decent chances. In USO, the big 5 fight for it. How exciting this could be for everyone…..

    • At Wimbledon, Rafa won’t have a chance, so it will be good for Rafa to win here. He will have a good chance of winning FO too. Wimbledon may be fought among guys like Fed, Murray, Djoko, Raonic and Dimi. Many players are good at the USO, not only the big four. I say Delpo too if he’s fit and healthy again.

  6. I think Rafa will be tired but the adrenalin rush will be massive. Rafa will physically hold up fine and he won’t mind engaging in long rallies. Actually, that would be the plan for team Nadal! Conditions are quick and Roger would like to keep the points short.

    In 2009 Rafa was younger but in the 5th set it looked like he could still play a couple more sets. That’s how much energy he had because of the occassion.

    • Rafa being tired has never been a problem for him, no matter who he plays, and it shouldn’t matter tomorrow. Rafa should win tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Fed won. That’s a strange notion, but then again this has been a relatively strange tournament…

  7. No one can say with certainty which player is going to win between Nadal and Roger but both players know what kind of play they need to use to clinch it, as for Nadal he needs to play long and aggresive, also he must make sure that Roger old legs are worked out. As for Roger drop shots, volley’s neutralizing servers are his advantage and he must not be tempted to use his forehand even though he has one of the best forehand in the game because that will allow Nadal Long play to be advantageous if he connects with those forehand so both must bring their “A” game tomorrow to clinch it… The mental strength of both players I think it should not be questioned because looking at their both post match interviews they looked like they were jst playing the AO for fun and the is this one time Roger (after he beat Zverev the older brother of Alex) joked and said “one of her daughter that morning said they dont mind going back to Switzerland now and before the tournament began they complained that they didn’t want to leave early so he must win”. One thing I’m certain of its gonna be a glorious sunday… Nice read at Kevin and littlefoot as for ed2411.. May u sister recover very soon

  8. Moya said Rafa practised okay yest..but natashao said he cut short his practice today..Is everthing okay? This is my biggest fear..

    Remember before match against Stan..he had to cut short and we knew later why (:-

  9. A lot of people are talking about how Rafa had trouble against Grigor so he would be in more trouble against Fed. Don’t forget that:

    -Grigor hits a flatter backhand than Fed. The swiss has the better backhand but drive but dimitrov hits it flatter or at least he did it against Rafa.

    -Grigor uses the backhand slice MORE smartlt than Fed does.

    -Grigor is quicker than fed and made rafa hit the extra shot many times. Fed has great defense but he won’t be able to make Rafa hit that many shots.

    -Fed’s forehand is another league. He is going to destroy any short balls and rush the net.

    Overall, fed must serve well, hit lots of backhands DTL and CRUSH his inside-out forehand. Notice how Grigor had success with that shot. Historically, that shot has troubled Rafa and at 30 he is a bit slower now to cover tht forehand side.

    Look for fed to try to rush Rafa on that forehand side.

    Rafa will be okay and I think he will find a way.

    Rafa in 4 or 5 sets

  10. I hope Rafa somehow wins this on strength of adrenaline rush irrespective of all the issues . He knows this means a lot – double career slam..he has lost an earlier oppty.. Go for it Rafa…Do your best and leave it all on court.

  11. Here’s the answer you’ve all been waiting for.

    If Fed was 30, then yes, fitness might be a factor in this match but because Nadal is 5 years his junior it wont be enough to make up for all the other advantages Nadal has over him. Fed had two 5-setters en route to the final as well so might be feeling a bit stiff after 2 days rest. Nadal is physically stronger and carries weight more naturally than Fed so carb-loading is not as important as it is for Fed.

    The result: Nadal in 4.

    You can all enjoy the result that’s forthcoming now.

  12. Furthermore, Nadal digs in and will make Fed play too many extra balls under pressure. Fed is already susceptible to cracking against players he doesnt have a mental edge against but this will be further exacerbated by Nadal’s constant retrieving and pressure applied to Fed’s backhand.

    IMO, Fed didnt play well enough in his semi to give him a chance in this match whereas Dimitrov most likely played Nadal into absolute peak form.

    There will be a lot of big, sharp money on Nadal.

    • Sanju, don’t fall for that. I read on another astrologer’s site that the stars have truly aligned in Andy’s favor, lol! Of course that prediction was made before Andy crashed!
      The chance that the above astrologer is right is 50:50 after all 🙂

      • Other quacks have made bio-rythm curves for the players. Rafa’s alleged bio-rythm for today is most peculiar. His physical prowess hit rock-bottom 2 days ago – just when he was fighting Grigor – but is slightly on the up-swing now. But his intellectual potential is peaking. Sounds good to me. The Fed can’t outfox him, lol! But then again, he rarely could.
        I trust the betting crowd’s predictions mostly. They are impartial because they want to earn money after all. Although, whoever predicted today’s final earned alot of money for sure.
        🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. I won’t be commenting live – not my style,lol! I don’ have the stomach for it. But I will be catching up later.
    Have fun, everybody – wherever you are in the world!
    And compliment to Ricky. This site has truly developed into a place for all fans. I’m glad that I peeked again.

  14. It was only a matter of time before Fed raced to the lead. Rafa is playing too passively and Fed, who is feeling the ball well, is really getting in the zone due to Rafa’s passive play.

    Haven’t see one big forehand DTL yet. Fed is spreading the court with his backhand as well.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.