World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

November 17, 2015 Ricky Match previews 201

P1150097The only lower-seeded player to win his first World Tour Finals round-robin match has a chance to take control of Group Ilie Nastase when Rafael Nadal returns to action again on Wednesday. Up next for Nadal is Andy Murray.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will take 1-0 World Tour Finals records with them into their 22nd career meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Nadal, but it is an even 5-5 on hard courts. It is also tied 1-1 indoors following a 2009 Rotterdam win by Murray and a 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6) thriller at the 2010 World Tour Finals that went to Nadal. Their only previous encounter in 2015 came on the clay courts of Madrid, where the Scot rolled 6-3, 6-2 to capture the title.

Fast forward six months and Nadal is in much better form now. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recently finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel to go along with a semifinal showing in Shanghai and a quarterfinal performance in Paris. He easily maintained momentum on Monday by winning his opener at the O2 6-3, 6-2 over Stan Wawrinka.
Rafa 2
Murray enjoyed a similarly routine day against David Ferrer, needing only eight more minutes than Nadal (1:30 to 1:22) to prevail 6-4, 6-4. The world No. 3 is now 10-3 since the U.S. Open with a semifinal appearance in Shanghai and a run to the Paris final.

Whether he likes it or not, Murray seems to be on his way to the semifinals–thus cutting down on his clay-court preparation time for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Great Britain and Belgium. But he got in a week of practice on the red stuff last week and by the looks of his opening match he is motivated to do well in London.

That, along with the low-bouncing surface, is bad news for Nadal. Look for Murray to dictate play and eventually wear down his opponent thanks in part to the indoor conditions, but both players should advance to the semis in the end.

Pick: Murray in 3

[polldaddy poll=9183824]

106 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

    • hmmm…12 winners….. as he gains more confidence, the power and penetration on shots is going to go up and we will see more winners. He needs to hit more against Novak. Really impressive stuff!! who would have thought rafa would lose a mere ten games combined against Muzz and Wawa …..LOL

      Reply

  12. Singles Group Ilie Nastase qualification scenarios:

    R. NADAL qualifies on Wednesday if:
    – R. NADAL defeats A. MURRAY and S. WAWRINKA defeats D. FERRER.
    – R. NADAL defeats A. MURRAY in 2 sets and D. FERRER defeats S. WAWRINKA in 3 sets.
    [Source: ATP]

    Reply

  13. Rafa playing a tactically sound match, using his guile and varieties to overcome a Murray who tried to hit hard to overpower Rafa. Rafa just varied his spin and pace, I feel Murray hitting so often into the net because he couldn’t deal with Rafa’s topspin heavy balls.

    If Rafa can find his first serve more often he’ll be even harder to beat! I like Rafa playing at his own pace, doesn’t rush and I feel that’s the best way to deal with Fed or Novak.

    Reply

  14. does anyone think rafa can beat nole?? is a step too far with that serve i think…
    reckon he could beat fed because fed would get rattled and start to miss..

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    • If Novak continues to play like during his match vs Fed, and Rafa improves his serve, then I think Rafa can make a match of it and will have his chances of winning. However, if Novak ups his level and not missing anything then it’s difficult to see a Rafa win. Like I said earlier, Rafa needs to control the pace of his play, don’t let Novak rush him into errors. I like the way Rafa plays this RR match with Murray, he’s not rushing to finish a point but has time to think and vary his play during the match. Rafa is aggressive but not overly aggressive and doesn’t need to take much risk,

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      • lucky,

        I like your analysis of how Rafa played against Murray. Rafa seemed to know exactly what he needed to do. He was controlling the rallies and got great court positioning in this match. He does need to work on that serve.

        I also agree about Novak. If he plays the way he did against Fed and Rafa serves well, then Rafa can make a mathc of it and could have a chance at winning. But if Novak does go up another gear, then it’s going to be tough for Rafa.

        It’s really great to see Rafa playing this way, winning against players in the top five. We know it’s real now!

        If Rafa defeats Ferrer, then he will go 3-0!

        Reply

      • Lucky: You’ve put it in a nutshell. What I particularly noticed about his match with Muzza was the way he was playing within himself but was able to ratchet it up when he needed to. I don’t understand the reason for both of them posting such a low 1st service %.
        Today it wasn’t so critical for Rafa but it is a vital tool for getting out of trouble in the months ahead.
        .

        Reply

  15. I was intrigued by the distribution of votes in the poll. There must be a lot of closet Andy fans and a more than a few pessimistic Rafans. Votes for a straight sets win was split 50/50. I was one of the 18% who forecast a straight sets win for Rafa.

    Reply

  17. Thanks for this augusta08. Love hearing straight from Rafa how he constructs his points.

    Dr. Rafa says:

    “It’s tough to analyze in terms of shots this year, no because when you are not able to focalize your mind on the shot and you are not able to play with the right colm then is IMPOSSIBLE to think about the right tactics because at the end of the day you are competing against yourself.

    Well the opponents have been tough but obviously if I have to say something with the year that I felt more strange feelings in terms of mental part.”

    Bravo Rafa!!!

    Reply

      • Rafa says his main opponent was himself – then, as a qualifier, he adds that his opponents were “obviously” tough…then, comes the but, but part and restates in different wording that it was actually (me) with a mental block. He’s the most charming and adept – even when not in his native tongue. He’s extremely mindful of others’ feelings and how he’s coming across in most cases.

        Nole, Fed, Rafa – all believe the problem is within themselves and in their power to change when they are off form and lose. Specific fans of the 3 mentioned also follow that perspective, passionately. All of these champions learned to work the media and public relations at a young age. (Federer is the worst at it – which makes him funnier/more awkward, imo)

        It’s tougher than it sounds to watch tennis from both sides, Hawk, but enough objectivity to describe match action realistically attainable. Not saying I have it, but I keep trying. Lucky, NNY, others here are doing a very good job at objectivity. You are also good at it, when it suits you 😉

        Commentators and journos make objectivity their study and are supposed to keep it as close as possible. Still, it comes naturally to some more than others.

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      • Thanks. I try to be objective but yes only when it suits me which I wish was the norm rather than the exception.

        I’m intentionally much less objective when corresponding with fandom bias regardless of the player.

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      • Commentators especially because they should be held to a higher standard.

        Most are fedfans. PMac and Devid Mercer are the absolute worst.

        IMO, Chris Fowler and JMac are Rafans.

        As for writers, Bodo is a fed fan and Tignor is a Rafan.

        Took me a while to figure out Ricky (kudos to him) but he is a Rafan (he’d probably protest).

        Reply

      • A lie detector would almost certainly say Ricky is not telling the truth if he denied Rafa is amongst his favourites. But unlike, as is the case for many of his colleagues, he doesn’t allow it to surface in biased reporting.

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      • You’re right Ed. It doesn’t show up in his articles – only vaguely in his comments.

        I’d also argue it is easier for writers to hide bias than commies who are on the spot which is why Bodo is one of the worst offenders.

        Reply

  19. I did not notice Andy cut a strand of his hair during the break between the games?!

    Local sport site announced Rafa’s victory with the title: “Nadal better than British hairdresser” 🙂

    Reply

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