World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

P1150097The only lower-seeded player to win his first World Tour Finals round-robin match has a chance to take control of Group Ilie Nastase when Rafael Nadal returns to action again on Wednesday. Up next for Nadal is Andy Murray.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will take 1-0 World Tour Finals records with them into their 22nd career meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Nadal, but it is an even 5-5 on hard courts. It is also tied 1-1 indoors following a 2009 Rotterdam win by Murray and a 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6) thriller at the 2010 World Tour Finals that went to Nadal. Their only previous encounter in 2015 came on the clay courts of Madrid, where the Scot rolled 6-3, 6-2 to capture the title.

Fast forward six months and Nadal is in much better form now. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recently finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel to go along with a semifinal showing in Shanghai and a quarterfinal performance in Paris. He easily maintained momentum on Monday by winning his opener at the O2 6-3, 6-2 over Stan Wawrinka.
Rafa 2
Murray enjoyed a similarly routine day against David Ferrer, needing only eight more minutes than Nadal (1:30 to 1:22) to prevail 6-4, 6-4. The world No. 3 is now 10-3 since the U.S. Open with a semifinal appearance in Shanghai and a run to the Paris final.

Whether he likes it or not, Murray seems to be on his way to the semifinals–thus cutting down on his clay-court preparation time for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Great Britain and Belgium. But he got in a week of practice on the red stuff last week and by the looks of his opening match he is motivated to do well in London.

That, along with the low-bouncing surface, is bad news for Nadal. Look for Murray to dictate play and eventually wear down his opponent thanks in part to the indoor conditions, but both players should advance to the semis in the end.

Pick: Murray in 3

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45 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

  1. Nobody is tanking in this match or doesn’t want to win. They will both come out and play to win this match. As for me, I never want Rafa to lose. A win against Murray here will be a big confidence boost for him.

  2. Rafa serving poorly and returning poorly; Murray rallying poorly. Fed and Novak need not worry about them if they continue to play this way.

      • Yes poorly and wasted so many BP chances. It’s not like Murray was serving any better either. Rafa wasn’t able to capitalize on Murray’s second serve until the last game of the first set. The second set Rafa was playing better but Murray wasn’t.

        Rafa played well enough to win despite a poor first serve %. If he up his first serve % he will be playing even better for sure.

  3. yesss!!! That’s the way to go, Rafa! Show them all (including the resident hawkeye who still does not believe in Rafa 🙂 )

    Vamos!!!!!

  4. I am not watching but the scoreline here is quite telling I believe! rafa’s winning matches easily! In the beginning of the year, if an opponent was playing badly, rafa was playing even worse! Don’t know how Murray has played so far but I would like to believe rafa is doing a pretty good job.

    • vamosrafa,

      I just watched my recording of the match. I was following the score on my iPhone while in physical therapy and saw that Rafa won the first set. But I wasn’t able to follow it after that. So I came home and watched it without knowing the result.

      I thought Rafa played a great match. He was very aggressive and took the court away from Murray. Also by moving inside the baseline and taking the ball earlier, his forehand was that much more effective. Rafa was controlling the baseline and dictating points.

      Murray double faulting three times in the first game of the second set, didn’t help his cause. Rafa really took control in that second set.

      I don’t care what this victory means for who plays who! Rafa beat the #2 player! What a difference from Madrid!

      This is real! We wondered when Rafa would beat anyone in the top five. Well, it’s happening now!

  5. He must be playing amazing with his 1st serve barely at 50%.

    If Rafa wins here, it’s big IMO.

    First win over a Big 4 player in 1.5 years going 0-5 over that time.

    A statement win and a big step to full recovery.

    Mmmmmm….. breadsticks!!!!

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