World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Sock

Roger Federer and Jack Sock will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in the opening singles match of the World Tour Finals on Sunday afternoon.

Federer has won all three of their previous meetings and has never surrendered a single set to Sock. The Swiss prevailed twice in 2015 (6-3, 6-2 in Indian Wells and 6-3, 6-4 in Basel) before getting the job done 6-1, 7-6(4) in the Indian Wells semifinals earlier this season.

Sock figured he would be on vacation right now instead of getting another shot at the 19-time Grand Slam champion, but what a difference one week makes. Although the 25-year-old American was not even in the realistic year-end championship picture heading into the Paris Masters, he rolled all the way to his first Masters 1000 title and stole the final qualifying spot from–among others–Pablo Carreno Busta. Sock’s trip to the trophy included victories over Kyle Edmund (from 5-1 down in the third set), Lucas Pouille, Fernando Verdasco, Julien Benneteau, and Filip Krajinovic.

To say Sock’s title came out of nowhere would be a gross understatement. The current world No. 9 was a horrendous 13-16 in his last 29 matches prior to arriving in Paris. By comparison, he was 18-3 in his first 21 matches of the season.

Federer, on the other hand, has been consistent the entire way–to the extent that he has lost only four times to go along with his 49 victories. The 36-year-old triumphed at the Australian Open and Wimbledon in addition to titles in Indian Wells, Miami, Halle, Shanghai, and Basel. As those results indicate, Federer is no longer slowed by the back issue that troubled him at the U.S. Open–where he fell to Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. The world No. 2 is 10-0 in his last 10 matches, lifting trophies in Shanghai and Basel along the way.

Federer’s illustrious year-end championship history makes this an even more daunting task for Sock, who is making his first appearance at the O2 Arena in London. The veteran is 52-12 lifetime at this tournament (25-7 in London) with six titles–the last one coming in 2011. His bid for a seventh should begin in routine fashion.

Pick: Federer in 2

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12 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Sock

  1. I marcelled at the footwork of the big four. Compared to players like Sock, they’re out of this world! Fed looked so light footed whilst Sock looked like his lumbering around the court. Djoko is also like Fed, light footed gliding around.

    Rafa is naturally very quick and agile around the court ( watch him on clay when he’s 18/19, incredibly quick and could pick himself up so quickly when he fell down). Even Fed commented that Rafa was one of the fastest (if not the fastest) player around.

    Murray is also very quick and after adding some muscles to his legs, he’s motoring around so powerfully and quickly and is incredible with his unbelievable gets and retrievals.

    It’s no wonder others find it so difficult to live with the big four, they’re mostly not as quick.

    • Yeah, no doubt that their movement is a big part of their respective greatness. I agree with you, Lucky, that Rafa has got to be the fastest guy ever in tennis, at least one of the best. In Agassi’s autobiography, when describing the Montreal final against Rafa, he says,

      “I go to Montreal and scratch and claw my way to the final against a Spanish kid everyone is talking about. Rafael Nadal. I can’t beat him. I can’t fathom him. I’ve never seen anyone move like that on a tennis court…”

      I love how he says, “I can’t fathom him”, that’s my favorite line. 🙂

        • Yeah, Robbie Koenig said in his commentary before the Fed/Sock match that the consensus among the players is that it’s playing “a little quicker”. So that would obviously favor Federer, Cilic, and Zverev. It could also help Rafa in terms of his knee because it could allow him to keep points shorter if he so chooses. I suppose Dimitrov also likes quicker surfaces.

          • Quick court won’t help Rafa. What might, though, is that the court seems to me to be higher bouncing even if it is fast. What’s hardest for Nadal is low bouncing court and balls.

          • The court is faster than in 2015 but according to Cilic it’s about the same or slower than Paris; so it’s not very fast like that of Shanghai. I think all these are relative, it depends on what you compare it with – O2 Arena in the past, or other HCs this season.

          • Well, Rafa still made it to the final of Shanghai despite it being quick and low bouncing, beating Dimi and Cilic along the way. It’s not like he’s hopeless on those courts; the most important thing is that he’s fit and healthy and playing well.

            We don’t know how he’ll play here until we see his first match. Let’s wait and see.

  2. Good win for Roger. Sock played well, except for double faults; the one in the TB was very disappointing. Sock could definitely get less soft around the middle, but his movement was good and he is deceptively quick. If he can get a bit more consistent on serve and stay healthy, he can definitely make the top 10 next year.

    Fed really struggled with ROS, especially in 2nd set, but a lot of that was the Sock serve. His 1st serve was a monster, regularly coming in over 130 mph and loaded with spin. I think he only lost one or two points on it all match. The 2nd serve has all sorts of action, and gave Roger a lot of trouble. Either he was good at consistently jamming Fed, or else there was something really off in Roger’s return. Not sure which.

    Even though Fed’s serve was excellent in 2nd set, I’m concerned that his serve mechanics have changed a bit, probably compensating for his back. He’s not getting as much arm extension as usual, and it’s causing more net cords and less margin for error generally. Cilic and Zverev are his two biggest threats, imo, and either one could beat him even if they won’t be favoured. If he gets past the group stage I actually think his road will get a bit easier.

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