The selling point of last season’s World Tour Finals was a two-man battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. In the absences of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Murray and Djokovic did not disappoint—successfully playing their way into the final match of 2016 for both the tournament title and the top ranking.
Now the roles are reversed. Murray and Djokovic are on the sideline, while Nadal and Federer could turn the O2 Arena festivities into another two-man party. But whereas Murray and Djokovic had competition from the likes of Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic, Nadal and Federer may be the only ones who can stop themselves. Nadal is dealing with a knee injury that forced him out of the Paris Masters prior to the quarterfinals and Federer—whose back has been an issue at times—has not triumphed at the World Tour Finals since 2011.
That being said, it’s not like the six remaining challengers are pushovers of any kind. Federer’s round-robin group could be especially difficult. Alexander Zverev won two Masters 1000 tournaments this season, Marin Cilic was the Wimbledon runner-up and is making his third appearance in London, and Jack Sock is coming off an amazing run to the Paris title.
Nadal likely needed more help from the draw than Federer did, and the Spaniard got it. Thiem has been in a significant slump since the French Open, Grigor Dimitrov is a first-time participant, and Goffin has never been a real threat to the top players in the world (the Belgian is a combined 0-8 lifetime against Nadal and Federer).
Federer is more than capable of handling his tough round-robin road and even Nadal at less than full strength should be able to survive the hand he has been dealt. But the question remains: just how fit is Nadal? He will obviously have to be 100 percent in order to end his current five-match losing streak against Federer.
Group A
Rafael Nadal
Dominic Thiem
Grigor Dimitrov
David Goffin
Group B
Roger Federer
Alexander Zverev
Marin Cilic
Jack Sock
Round-robin predictions:
Group A
Nadal over Goffin in 2
Dimitrov over Thiem in 3
Dimitrov over Nadal in 3
Goffin over Thiem in 3
Nadal over Thiem in 2
Dimitrov over Goffin in 2
Group B
Federer over Sock in 2
Cilic over Zverev in 3
Federer over Cilic in 2
Sock over Zverev in 3
Federer over Zverev in 3
Cilic over Sock in 3
Semifinals: Federer over Nadal in 2 and Cilic over Dimitrov in 3
Final: Federer over Cilic in 2
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