Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fritz, Kyrgios vs. Garin

When Wimbledon quarterfinal action wraps up on Wednesday there will be one all-seeded showdown and one all-unseeded matchup. Rafael Nadal is going up against a red-hot opponent in Taylor Fritz, while Nick Kyrgios faces Cristian Garin.

(11) Taylor Fritz vs. (2) Rafael Nadal


It will be a rematch of the Indian Wells final when Nadal and Fritz square off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday afternoon. Fritz took down Nadal 6-3, 7-6(5) for his first-ever Masters 1000 title, tying up the head-to-head series 1-1 following a 6-3, 6-2 loss in the 2020 Acapulco championship match. Now they collide in a slam, where Nadal is undefeated this season. The 36-year-old Spaniard triumphed in both Melbourne and Paris, and so far at the All-England Club he has defeated Francisco Cerundolo, Ricardas Berankis, Lorenzo Sonego, and Botic van de Zandschulp. Nadal dropped a set to both Cerundolo and Berankis before raising his level in rounds three and four.

Fritz has been dominant all fortnight. The world No. 14 and recent Eastbourne champion has not lost a single set; everyone else in the field has lost at least two. He booked his place in the last eight by coasting past Lorenzo Musetti, Alastair Gray, Alex Molcan, and Jason Kubler. Sure the competition level has been underwhelming, but 12-0 in total sets is impressive no matter the circumstances. Fritz is one of the few members of the younger generation who actually have belief when they face Nadal and Novak Djokovic. The Indian Wells result can’t really be taken into account since both guys–especially Nadal–were less than 100 percent, but nonetheless it can’t hurt Fritz’s confidence level. This is another winnable match for the American.

Pick: Fritz in 5

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WWW: Nadal vs. Fritz?


Cristian Garin vs. Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios vs. Garin is a rare all-unseeded affair in the quarterfinals of a major. Of course, based on talent alone–especially on the grass courts of Wimbledon–Kyrgios was always a title contender regardless of what his No. 40 ranking suggests. The 27-year-old reached the quarterfinals back in 2014 and now he is through to the semis following victories over Paul Jubb, Filip Krajinovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Brandon Nakashima.

Garin was supposed to face 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini in round one, but the Italian was forced out by a positive Covid-19 test and it’s safe to say that the 43rd-ranked Chilean has made the most of his opportunity. He has advanced by taking out Elias Ymer, Hugo Grenier, Jenson Brooksby, and Alex de Minaur. Garin is coming off a five-set battle with de Minaur, but his first three matches were routine so he should have plenty left in the tank for the biggest match of his career. Kyrgios made only one of his first four matches straightforward, so another roller-coaster ride can be expected against an in-form opponent–but the Aussie’s serve will likely bail him out in the pressure-packed moments.

Pick: Kyrgios in 5

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50 Comments on Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fritz, Kyrgios vs. Garin

  1. For the SF, I’ll wait for the doctor’s assessment and Rafa’s announcement.

    To me Rafa at this Wimbledon is playing at a high level, despite some wobbles in his first two matches. In the QF, he came out all guns blazing and if not for his abdominal issues, could have won the first set when he was leading and then won the match in four sets within shorter time.

    At the level Rafa is playing, sans his abdominal issues, he will most likely beat Kyrgios in the SF to reach the final. And, I even think that he will beat Djoko in the final!

    Rafa just has so many levels that he could get to; even when he couldn’t serve well ( hampered by abdominal issues), he could still vary his game to beat his opponent.

    Kyrgios always ‘play dirty’ when he faces an opponent whom he thinks would be a threat to him (imo he knew how good Tsitsipas was playing in this Wimbledon, and that’s why he tried means and ways to irritate Tsitsipas to extract errors out of him!).

    If Rafa is playing in the SF, I hope Kyrgios for once be gentlemen enough not to do nasty things to disrupt Rafa’s focus and concentration. If Rafa loses in the SF, so be it.

    Let’s wait and see who is favoured by the tennis god here to win the title in the end. We will find out when the final ends on this coming Sunday.

    Vamos Rafa, no matter what!

  2. I am just so sad. I really wanted this wimby for rafa. I hate it when injury disrupts him all the time. I am okay if he loses whilst being healthy n is beaten by a better player

  3. I don’t care what some people said, that Rafa should retire from the match to allow Fritz to get to the SF, so that presumably they’ll get a more competitive SF between Fritz and Kyrgios.

    I mean, if Fritz is not good enough to beat a compromised Rafa, how is he going to be competitive against Kyrgios?

    Whether Rafa retired from the match or not, he would be criticised for whatever decision he made, so why be bothered by them?

    Rafa was just trying his best to win the match, and giving himself a chance to compete for the title. Who knew how bad was his abdominal issue during the match, he himself won’t know it unless he could have a thorough checkup but at that time he couldn’t have that done.

    It may turn out to be not too serious, and he may be able to play in the SF, who knows? We may then applaud the good decision Rafa made during the QF!

  4. One thing about Fritz, he’s not new to losing a five setter! He lost to Djoko at AO2021 in five sets, lost to Shapo in five sets at 2020 USO, lost to Alex Zverev in five sets at 2018 Wimbledon and lost in R1 at FO that year in five sets.

    He had played in many five setters, winning some against not that high ranking opponents and lost five setters to high ranking players. I think against top players, they just have an edge over him mentally to cross over the finish line.

    • Lucky, that is interesting. I didn’t look up Fritz’s five-setter record. But it confirms my suspicion that he might have problems to cross the finish line, and it’s very hard to win against Rafa or Novak in five sets. The opponents know that of course, and that makes it even moredifficult. But Fritz was playing against an opponent with reduced capabilities, and he still wasn’t able to win!
      As Gil Gross explained in his very interesting analysis on his YouTube channel, Rafa must have looked into his big arsenal and he cleverly choose the weapons which were still working well. That was very smart. Most players would have called it a day in that situation. Gil Gross also mentioned the fact that Rafa seemed to play better after the medical time-out. Gross said that with abdominal problems there are not many things which can be done oncourt. He suspects that Rafa got some painkillers which kicked in after a few minutes and that he may have used the short break for gathering his wits and for assessing how he should play in order to give himself a chance to win after all.

  5. Hoping it’s a minor and treatable issue with rafa.

    Abdomen Muscle tears exacerbate without rest. If it’s a clean tear Rafa will pull out i am pretty sure.

    In any case, rafa has to be proud of himself. 16 years of supporting this guy and he still surprises me and inspires me.

    Vamos.

  6. I was a bit bummed that Rafa didn’t celebrate at all after this great win, and he didn’t look happy at all in his presser. As he said after his previous match, he is sometimes tired of himself. Despite his great successes during this season he has been constantly struggling with his ailing body!

  7. Why will he play if he has a tear .does he not risk it further and compromise the uso..he anyway won’t win wimby with a tear esp against djokovic

    • He is risking the bigger damage, but those tapes may be useful in preventing it! A lot of players are playing with some issues and the tapes seem to help! Hope it works!

      Rafa is a fighter! Also, as stated in his interview, he is aware that he is playing at high level! For sure, his level of tennis bailed hin out in yesterday’s match! He won without serve, what does it tell you about his baseline game? Rafa is just a genius who adapts his game to both his opponents and his injuries!

      Gosh, I love Rafa! I wish him luck and success in his next matches! I know he will give his all!
      Vamos Champ no matter what! 🍀🍀🍀

  8. “Djokovic had a 1.7 cm (17 mm) tear at the Australian Open 2021 from the 3rd round. If he can play 5 rounds, I hope Rafa can play and win 2 more rounds at Wimbledon too”.

    Sb posted that and I agree. If Djoko can do that with much worse, I hope Rafa can. Whatever decision rafa and his doctor makes, I will support them. They know what they are doing. All this pulling for Rafa to withdraw, if that’s the case Rafa should have never played French open with his chronic foot issue that made it almost impossible to walk. Let Rafa make his decision. He and his dr know better than anyone.

    • Do we know if his doc is with him here like at RG ?

      Happy if this was last slam of year it was perfectly right to continue , here uso is 7 weeks away.. secondly ao was djokos fav slam n that’s not the case here…thirdly there was a big gap for djoko between ao n rg ,that’s not the case here

      • I don’t think Novak played for ages after that AO did he? But RG was a long way away. Plus, as sanju says, it’s his best slam. If this were RG I would feel differently.
        Rafa will go into the USO the fave if he is healthy. Novak can’t even play!
        If this is going to mean he jeopardizes his chances of winning g the USO then I wish he wouldn’t.
        They just showed footage of him on the BBC and the commentators were saying he wasn’t able to complete his service action and he looked unhappy. Is it really worth him playing if he is suffering? If he can’t even serve how can be win? He looked very strained on the footage.
        I want him to be healthy to go and get his #23 slam at the USO.

        • If there were a big gap in time between now and the next slam I would feel differently. But there is only 7 weeks until the USO and he will want to play in Canada which is only 4 weeks away.

          • Cases are rising so they may well not.
            Anyway Rafa’s record there is better than Novak’s. He can definitely beat him if he is healthy.

  9. I think Rafa and his team know how to manage it; if Rafa doesn’t feel well in the SF, he could and would then retire. I don’t think Rafa is so careless that he would take unnecessary risk, if he feels he couldn’t play well enough to win the match.

    He’ll probably dig deep using his wide range of tools and think of ways to get round his weakened serve. I do remember at least two matches where Rafa was injured during the matches. He would swing freely his shots and was going for winners, and he was able to win a set in each of those two matches by doing so despite his injuries – the Rotterdam final vs Murray in 2010; and the AO final in 2014 vs Stan.

    If Rafa could play that way and not holding back, ie playing an offensive brand of tennis from the start of the match, he may have his chances to win the SF. Rafa can play an attacking offensive game, if he chooses to do so; he has it in him to play that way, it’s just that it’s not his style to go for winners all the time; he enjoys the problem solving thinking game instead.

    • But can he win the finals ? At this stage of the career, its 0 or 1 for him. Either you win a major or you dont. I dont think he should play.

      He had a great year, and he still has a lot of good tennis left.

      • Yes I tend to agree. It’s also really horrible watching someone out there clearly in pain.
        I also really hate the thought of what it will be like with NK and his ugly antics and how he will boast about beating him.
        Rafa looked really unhappy on the practice footage they showed just now and was unable to complete his service action.

    • It’s not just the serve. He scarcely hit a cross court backhand. That shot is vital at the highest level. He can’t just slice the ball endlessly against NK and Novak.

  10. Agree its just abt maximizing the win at slams now..nothing else matters

    3 big injuries already this year .rib, severe foot n now ab…

      • Margot, yes she is great. Great person and fabulous game. Making history as well.
        I haven’t watched the News yet. I am guessing from what you say he is still hanging on…? He is making a real fool of himself..
        Would be wonderful to see Ons win her first slam at wimby.

  11. I think it’s wrong to compare Novak’s case at the AO ’21 with Rafa’s current situation. The AO are Novak’s favorite tournament, and, as others have said, the next slam is a few months away. This cannot be compared with Rafa’s current situation. It would be different if this was RG.
    I feel sad, though. Rafa has apparently believed that another Wimby title wasn’t totally impossible.

  12. It’s not given that Rafa is favorite to win USO this year, neither is Novak with Medvedev, Berettini, etc, in play.

    No matter what we think it will be Rafa’s decision to play or not. If he is in pain and can’t serve properly he will most likely decide not to play. If he decides to show on court that means he thinks he can win! That’s all!

    Vamos Champ!

        • I heard his doctor is there. A British journalist tweeted that he told wimby he would play. I can’t verify the veracity of that. Was a respected journalist.

          • I read in rafaelnadal.com that he has a 7 mm tear in his abdomen but he practiced today and wants to play.

        • I looked at some fan sites. A lot of Rafa fans don’t want him to play.
          Genny and Raphael Dabandie were both saying yesterday he should retire.

        • Of course Rafa vs Nick is far more attractive than Djokovic vs Norrie! Rafa is the current darling of the audience, and Nick carries the tittilating promise of unleashing chaos and spectable at any moment. Some people love this, the majority of tennis fans hates it, but everybody wants to see it! The tv ratings will go through the roof!

    • NNY, I would not think too hard about this. We will only know for certain if Rafa will really play, when he appears on the court tomorrow ! But the organizers need to schedule the matches today.
      If Rafa cannot serve he cannot play. But Team Rafa will give it one more night.

  13. Pam Shriver was watching Rafa practice this morning. She could not get super close, but she did point out that he was doing some practice serves. I saw him serving with my own eyes. So I don’t what media coverage started the rumor that he didn’t do any serving…. that’s bogus!
    I noticed how subdued he was in the match yesterday, not a lot of jubilation, rather passive and very unusual….,..

  14. Like they numbed the foot sensory nerve , can’t they numb the sensory nerve around abdomen ? Don’t know the medical authenticity whether this is doable.

    Novak said for ao21 he was under very very strong painkillers n his physio worked a lot on him.

    • Sanju, that are two entirely different things, since Rafa’s foot doesn’t become less functionary when he play. Therefore numbing helps him to play normally. However, the abdominal muscles are crucial for all kinds of movements. Even if you could numb them with local anesthesia (I don’tknow if it’s even possible to use local anesthesia), the already existing small tear could get worse and hamper the movement even more.

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