Novak Djokovic has been the favorite at Wimbledon ever since the tournament began. That may have changed briefly when he trailed Jannik Sinner two sets to love in the quarterfinals, but the top seed quickly restored order and once again established himself as the man to beat.
Djokovic’s 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory on Wednesday sent him into a semifinal lineup that also includes Friday opponent Cameron Norrie plus–in the bottom half of the draw–Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios.
Let’s take a look at the three challengers.
Cameron Norrie
Why he can beat Djokovic: Norrie is the host nation’s last singles contender at Wimbledon in 2022–and has been for a while. He is going to have huge crowd support, which Djokovic won’t like at all even though the Serb can’t complain since Norrie is British. There isn’t any pressure on the lefty, either, as nobody expects him to win and the country doesn’t need him to win since Andy Murray already ended Great Britain’s Wimbledon drought. Norrie’s game works well on grass and he is extremely consistent, so he may be able to make Djokovic beat himself–as the 20-time major champion did in the second set against Sinner.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: Norrie has never played in a Grand Slam semifinal, so it’s a big occasion for him despite the pressure of expectations being off. The former TCU standout has never defeated anyone in the top four and he has never beaten anyone in the top 10 at a Grand Slam. Unlike Sinner, Norrie doesn’t have the offensive firepower to take the racket out of Djokovic’s hands.
Rafael Nadal
Why he can beat Djokovic: Nadal is 19-0 at slams this season, with titles in Melbourne and Paris. When healthy, he has quite simply been the best player on tour in 2022–by a country mile, too. The 36-year-old Spaniard has won three of his last four meetings with Djokovic; even though all of those matches came on clay, that should still give him some confidence.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: “When healthy”…. Well, Nadal isn’t healthy right now. He was dealing with an abdominal injury since the end of the first set against Taylor Fritz on Wednesday and somehow battled to a five-set victory. It’s hard to imagine the situation improving after that effort, and reports are that Nadal has a 7 mm tear. Both Nadal and Djokovic have successfully played through worse abdominal injuries at slams in the past, but beating Kyrgios and Djokovic back-to-back at less than 100 percent would require a Herculean feat. Nadal wouldn’t even be favored to do so even at 100 percent.
Nick Kyrgios
Why he can beat Djokovic: When motivated, Kyrgios is obviously one of the most dangerous players on tour. He is always motivated at Wimbledon, and that certainly won’t change in his first Grand Slam semifinal and with a very realistic chance at his first slam title. Especially with Nadal and then likely Djokovic on the other side of the net, Kyrgios’ desire and intensity should be off the charts. There is nothing he enjoys more than beating Nadal and Djokovic, plus he often boasts about his perfect (2-0) record at Djokovic’s expense that he will be eager to keep intact. The 27-year-old is coming off two consecutive no-nonsense performances; if he can keep his head on straight for two more, the title is possible.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: There is no reason why Kyrgios can’t beat Djokovic–or anyone else on tour on any given day. That being said, it’s not like he would be the favorite. It would be his first major final, as he had previously never even been to the semis of a slam. Djokovic is way too good to get completely blown off the court by Kyrgios, so there would surely be some adversity at times for the Aussie. Combine that with millions of people watching the match and you pretty much know Kyrgios would be producing all kinds of non-tennis histrionics. That rarely helps his level of play.
I know Novak will win in the end but it’s great to see Norrie not handing it to him.
I have said numerous times Novak is fallible and has been for a good while. It really wouldn’t surprise me if he loses. Maybe not today but certainly on Sunday.
I don’t understand the propping up of Novak by the commentators. He has done nothing this year to justify it. Even the cupcake draws are not helping him.
They are far from objective.
The commentators are speechless.
C’mon Norrie don’t miss your chance to make a Wimbledon final you never know what could happen.
Haha. Ricky just tweeted that the Nadal Kyrgios semi was higher quality than this….
Boring as hell.
Rafa is already back in Barcelona. Going to have some tests then home to Mallorca..
Norrie plays at club level.
The shot selection by Norrie is so poor, he’s choosing all the wrong shots! His smashes or overheads are poor by any standard. The 19 yo Alcatraz is better than him where shot selection skills is concerned.
Djoko should be winning this in four sets now barring any unforeseen circumstances; once Djoko is ahead, it’s very difficult to come from behind to beat him!
Yes Norrie doesn’t have the ability to take advantage of the free set Novak gave him in the beginning. He doesn’t have big weapons.
If Hurkacz hadn’t lost first round, when he was clearly nervous, he could have beaten Novak.
Even I can see that Norrie is clueless in shot selection.
I hope Djokovic plays like this against Kyrgios.
I was,so consumed by boredom I stopped watching long before the end.
What an absolutely terrible semi final day. I struggle to think of a worse one at a slam.
Looking forward to seeing Ons play tomorrow when we should get some quality play.
Go Ons!!😀
If Rafa hadn’t got injured and was in the final on Sunday ( and I believe he would be) he would beat Novak.
It’s very galling and annoying he won’t be there.
I felt the same thing last year. I only watched the first few games of the final because the quality was so poor but again it was manifestly obvious Novak was there for the taking. Fed must have been gnashing his teeth watching. He would have utterly demolished Novak playing like that.
This guy Norrie certainly is not ready to play the final here. Playing on home soil so poorly. Wow, how did he get to the SF?! What’s the point to hit an aggressive shot on the line right where your opponent is (and it goes out) when you have 3/4 of the court open…
I would feel ashamed to let down the home crowd like that. And especially myself.
Amy ..kyrgios will as usual clown around. You seriously expect he can beat Novak or Novak will let this oppty go ?no way ..kyrgios will find a way to self destruct n lose
You may be right sanju. But we don’t know! Novak is definitely beatable and if Rafa had played him on Sunday without this injury I honestly think he would win.
I watched Rafa’s press conference for the first time just now. Rafa himself said that before the injury suddenly became worse – which is when he first lost serve – he was playing at a very high level and that actually made him feel worse about withdrawing because he knew he could win. I agree!!
Please God let him be healthy for the USO.
And it was absolutely the right thing he did in withdrawing. He couldn’t have beaten NK without a serve. And he said he would almost certainly have made things so bad he would have been out for 2 or 3 months.
I am really proud of him for taking the right decision. I was quite frightened yesterday he would play because he didn’t want to let the tournament down. We know how Rafa is! Thank God he didn’t.
Amy, totally agree with you. Rafa needs to be in top form to beat Kyrgios besides, he would have made the injury worse with the USO round the corner.
Nadline, it would have been awful for him to be out for up to 3 months and miss the USO.
He did make it very clear that it was impossible for him to win 2 matches with the injury.
Go Ons!! 😀
Djokovic has never taken a set off Kyrgios in 2 meetings in BO3. Kyrgios has a 2:0 h2h against Djokovic. I don’t think Kyrgios will miss such a golden opportunity to win a slam. Just imagine the street cred he’d get, being a slam winner something Zverev, Tsitsipas, Berrettini, Sinner etc haven’t managed.
Djokovic will win in 3 or 4. Kyrgios’ vaunted 2-0 record against him was in 2017 when everyone and his brother was beating Djoker, who had an elbow problem for which he refused to get surgical help for months, evidently believing he’d cure it by thinking pure and holy thoughts. I am not sure anyone can think pure and holy thoughts while losing to players he should beat but there it is. H’m, admittedly Djoker did manage to look quite saintly while losing during that period.
For all his flashy shots Kyrgios has not beaten anyone in the top *50* at Wimbledon except for Tsitsipas, who a) imploded due to NK’s shenanigans and b) is not a great grass court player at his best. A healthy Rafa playing at his current level would have put a beat down on him.
Rafa has much the best record in GS finals of the big 3 : 22 -8. While both Novak and Fed are on 20- 11. Soon to be 20- 12 in Novak’s case!😉😉😉😉😁😁
Really honestly my desire to watch the final is practically non-existent.