Novak Djokovic has been the favorite at Wimbledon ever since the tournament began. That may have changed briefly when he trailed Jannik Sinner two sets to love in the quarterfinals, but the top seed quickly restored order and once again established himself as the man to beat.
Djokovic’s 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory on Wednesday sent him into a semifinal lineup that also includes Friday opponent Cameron Norrie plus–in the bottom half of the draw–Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios.
Let’s take a look at the three challengers.
Cameron Norrie
Why he can beat Djokovic: Norrie is the host nation’s last singles contender at Wimbledon in 2022–and has been for a while. He is going to have huge crowd support, which Djokovic won’t like at all even though the Serb can’t complain since Norrie is British. There isn’t any pressure on the lefty, either, as nobody expects him to win and the country doesn’t need him to win since Andy Murray already ended Great Britain’s Wimbledon drought. Norrie’s game works well on grass and he is extremely consistent, so he may be able to make Djokovic beat himself–as the 20-time major champion did in the second set against Sinner.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: Norrie has never played in a Grand Slam semifinal, so it’s a big occasion for him despite the pressure of expectations being off. The former TCU standout has never defeated anyone in the top four and he has never beaten anyone in the top 10 at a Grand Slam. Unlike Sinner, Norrie doesn’t have the offensive firepower to take the racket out of Djokovic’s hands.
Rafael Nadal
Why he can beat Djokovic: Nadal is 19-0 at slams this season, with titles in Melbourne and Paris. When healthy, he has quite simply been the best player on tour in 2022–by a country mile, too. The 36-year-old Spaniard has won three of his last four meetings with Djokovic; even though all of those matches came on clay, that should still give him some confidence.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: “When healthy”…. Well, Nadal isn’t healthy right now. He was dealing with an abdominal injury since the end of the first set against Taylor Fritz on Wednesday and somehow battled to a five-set victory. It’s hard to imagine the situation improving after that effort, and reports are that Nadal has a 7 mm tear. Both Nadal and Djokovic have successfully played through worse abdominal injuries at slams in the past, but beating Kyrgios and Djokovic back-to-back at less than 100 percent would require a Herculean feat. Nadal wouldn’t even be favored to do so even at 100 percent.
Nick Kyrgios
Why he can beat Djokovic: When motivated, Kyrgios is obviously one of the most dangerous players on tour. He is always motivated at Wimbledon, and that certainly won’t change in his first Grand Slam semifinal and with a very realistic chance at his first slam title. Especially with Nadal and then likely Djokovic on the other side of the net, Kyrgios’ desire and intensity should be off the charts. There is nothing he enjoys more than beating Nadal and Djokovic, plus he often boasts about his perfect (2-0) record at Djokovic’s expense that he will be eager to keep intact. The 27-year-old is coming off two consecutive no-nonsense performances; if he can keep his head on straight for two more, the title is possible.
Why he can’t beat Djokovic: There is no reason why Kyrgios can’t beat Djokovic–or anyone else on tour on any given day. That being said, it’s not like he would be the favorite. It would be his first major final, as he had previously never even been to the semis of a slam. Djokovic is way too good to get completely blown off the court by Kyrgios, so there would surely be some adversity at times for the Aussie. Combine that with millions of people watching the match and you pretty much know Kyrgios would be producing all kinds of non-tennis histrionics. That rarely helps his level of play.
who ya got?
When this Wimby started and when I saw the draw, I said there were only two people who could beat Novak in the finals: Rafa or Nick!
Rafa is clearly injured and cannot produce his best tennis which he needs to beat Novak! He may as well be unable to play Nick in the first place!
Nick, OTOH may be affected with the upcoming court proceedings for possible assault of his ex, even though he claims he is not affected by it.
But, there are always factors which we may not be aware of, or may emerge during the process! So, let’s wait and see!
It definitely helped his level of play vs Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas’ failure was his discomfort of calling kyrgios’ behaviour of intentionally talking while Tsitsipas’ was preparing to serve. Kyrgios will do whatever he can get away with to win. The umpire was never going to call him on it as long as Tsitsipas was pretending to ignore it. His internal frustration built until he hit the ball into the stands which then hit a fan on rebound giving kyrgios everything he needed to cement living rent free in Tsitsipas’ head for the rest of the match.
Few other top players would let it get that far.
Novaxx over Kyrgios in four
I hope that Rafa wins in 3….because if he doesn’t win in 3, he won’t win at all. Joker over Norrie in 3….but my heart would love to see Norrie play the match of his life and win!!!
He’s withdrawn…..
“Novak Djokovic has been the favorite at Wimbledon ever since the tournament began.”
Djokovic must be the oldest person alive then. Either that or he was prophesized before he was born.
It depends on which Kyrgios turns up to play. He may be dead serious come this final Sunday and make a match out of it.
I read that his mum has serious health issue (kidney problem) so she’s not here with the family to cheer him on. I think he may be motivated to win the title here for his mum’s sake. If Kyrgios is dead serious in his match, he’s really very hard to beat by anyone.
Djoko is not that invincible this Wimbledon, I do think that physically he’s not as fit as before, probably because he couldn’t play a full schedule hence isn’t that 100% match fit by his usual lofty standard.
Djoko also needs to play the SF first and I don’t know how long that match will last. Norrie can grind his way through a match and he’s not easy to put away. The Centre Court crowd will be firmly behind Norrie and that may motivate him to play even better.
Kyrgios does have a chance to win the title, but that will only happen when everything clicks for him. I do hope he behaves decently in a slam final, and plays his best tennis, whether he wins or loses in the end.
It’s so depressing. I never watch either NoVax or NK unless they’re playing Rafa. Between NoVax and NK I’m not sure I’d even know who to root for! Ah, well. Go Norrie!
NK in the final is just like Jonny Mac all those years ago. If he wins, it will be incredible. Not that I like him .
On a different angle, theres a lot of controversy over whether Rafa should have pulled out to let Fritz through to the semis. While he did nothing wrong in just trying to win the match, there was still a lot of doubt if he could play the semis. maybe the rules should be changed that say Fritz could play the semis if Nadal withdraws. But thats hard to see happen esp at Wimby with all its carved in stone rules.A lot of disappointed sepectators with tickets though.
Fritz said he didn’t deserve to be in the semis since he lost the match….
Thank you! I am not surprised that Fritz would say that! He is one American player I have had my eye on for a while. I thought he had potential and I have been watching to see if he would have a breakthrough. Of course I would not want it at Rafa’s expense. He won IW because Rafa was in terrible pain with the rib fracture. But he has been climbing in the rankings. He got to his first fourth round and now the quarterfinals. No way did I see him beating Rafa in a best of five set slam match. If Rafa was not dealing with the abdominal tear it would have ended in 3 or 4 sets. He is young and has a lot to learn. He played the best and now he has some experience playing one of the true greats.
That’s just not the way tennis works. See the tweets from Andy Roddick and Taylor Fritz himself, who is taking the high road here. I’m sure no one feels worse about it than Nadal though. He didn’t know if he could manage to play the semi. That’s why he was out on court earlier today.
Rafa can’t catch a break. If he had retired, the fans who bought tickets would have been upset. This ain’t Rafa’s first rodeo! He played on through the pain, like he’s always does, if at all possible. Did the scan to see the severity of injury. I think he did the right thing on both counts. John Q Publuc needs to butt our‼️
Right on! It’s like Rafa can’t win no matter what! It’s bad enough that we have to read this trash and garbage about Rafa not really being injured! Fritz was aside in his presser if Rafa was faking it when took the MTO. He says that if you are trying to win a match why would you start serving 15 mph less! Why would his family tell him to retire? Like nothing was wrong? This is getting to be quite toxic and disgusting. It was obvious that something was terribly wrong.
Rafa wanted to play. He wanted to win the match. He wasn’t thinking any further than that. Unfortunately, today he got the bad news about a 7 mm abdominal tear. At that point he had to face reality.
It was a very courageous effort on Rafa’s part. He got the ablation procedure so he could play here. People need to shut the hell up and leave it be. If he retired people would be disappointed and now he can’t play so people will be disappointed. Too bad!
He fought his heart out because he wanted to try to stay in the tournament. I am just humbled to be able to watch a truly exceptional player.,
Well, Al, do you still think that Rafa was playing u fair mind games on Fritz in order to rattle him??? Maybe, he withdrew because he wanted to cover up that he was not really hurt…
The simple truth is that exceptional athlets always fight for the win, no matter what. That’s why they are exceptional, and Rafa has become an all-time great because he is one heck of a fighter. It’s not in his genes to quit. And while he was oncourt he couldn’t know with certainty that he would not be able to continue. That’s the simple truth. It’s not at all complicated.
I have to say, that I wish Fritz good luck for the rest of his career. He seems to be very fair and decent. But just like Sinner and many of the other younger players he still needs to improve technically and mentally. He could probably have won this match against a seriously hobbled opponent if he had kept his wits together and concentrated on his strength. He had beaten a very compromised Rafa in IW. But a best-of-three match in front of his home crowd is a very different affair than a best-of-five match on Wimbledon’s legendary center court. And he is right – he didn’t deserve to be in the semis!
Littlefoot ,when I said mind games I didn’t necessarily mean they were deliberate. There’s been so much talk about injury,possible retirements etc,limping out of press conferences then sprinting around like a ten year old- a lot of psychology going on .Some players do it on purpose,others not.
Personally I think Fritz is not that great a player at this level anyway.
Point I was making is I’m fed up with all the talk of injury- make the decision ,play if fit enough ,or don’t, as in this case .
littlefoot,
I agree with you! I was thinking about how these great champions are different from us. It is in their DNA to win. Rafa went for the win because he is a truly great champion. He was not thinking about the next match. It really is that simple and why anyone would complicate it with conspiracy theories or nonsense about mind games, I have no idea. But that person just hates Rafa. Yet we get criticized if we say something negative about Novak or anyone else. Last year Novak was acting like he was suffering from injuries all through his three slam wins. He would call out the trainer repeatedly to get treatment for the shoulder, the elbow. Always something. Yet we have this absurd hypocrisy when it comes to Rafa. This is old stuff. Novak fans have been throwing around this pathetic garbage for so long. Now it’s worse because Rafa won the first two slams.
This idiocy about supposed mind games is rubbish. The person saying it is just a disgruntled Novak fan. Nothing new. Like Rafa has to invest his energy in so-called mind games. It would be funny if it wasn’t so insulting.
Well I did try to explain talking generally without accusing Rafa of anything- and nowhere did I say Nole was innocent – but obviously no point.
Yes, Rafa did the right thing, as always. I didn’t even see it, really, until a few mins ago. Suppose Rafa had played NK and somehow managed to beat him – and THEN had to pull out of the final! Well, he would never have done that – see his AO 2014 final! But he’d have had to play in so very much pain. I don’t EVER want to see him like that again!
Fritz is a likeable guy, just like Berrittini and Thiem. They should have more of such guys around in the tour, and less of those ill mannered spoilt brats.
NK can, think Cam can’t. Defeat Djok that is.
C’mon Cam!
The discussion if Rafa should have withdrawn during the match in order to make it possible for his fit opponent to play in the semis is totally absurd. Rafa could not have known for sure that he would not be able to play in the semis. Only his
doctor and Rafa’s condition after a good night’s sleep could determine if he would be able to continue. But does no one realize that we would not even discuss this if Wimby’22 was a regular slam??? In a regular slam the players would fight as long as they could walk and lift their arms because they would fight not just for money and glory but for ranking points! Winning or losing a quarterfinal makes a considerable difference as far as ranking points are concerned. No player would give the points away as long as there was a chance to win the match. And even in this year’s Wimby stunted edition there is still the aspect of the pay check. This absurd discussion would never have started if instead of a fabulously rich GOAT a lower ranked player who needed the money had been in Rafa’s situation.
That said, it is interesting to speculate if it would make sense to change certain rules. Would it make sense to allow lucky losers not only before but also after the tournament has started? The player who had to withdraw after winning a match, would receive money and ranking points while the loser would get the chance to continue. This would make sure that no matches would have to be canceled, and the tournament organizers, the tv-stations and the audience would get the matches they have paid for. In the early rounds this aspect would not be as crucial. But in the latter stages of a tournament it would become increasingliy important. What if this had happened in the semis? Rafa’s withdrawal would have meant that there would not have been a final. And that would have been not just a great disappointment but also a financial disaster! IMO it’s worth thinking about allowing lucky loser at all stages of a tournament.
No, if you lose during a tournament, you are out. Like what Fritz said, he’s not good enough to play in the SF, because he was beaten in the QF, why would he be given a second chance? It won’t be fair to Kyrgios, who had won his QF match, or anyone else who had lost a match but wasn’t given a second chance.
I would think that should it be a SF that Rafa was playing and he was injured, he would’ve retired to allow his opponent to get to the final, that way the final could then be played.
I can understand why Rafa had not retired in the match, because 1) he said he hated to retire mid match esp when it’s a slam, 2) he wasn’t sure that his injury was bad enough that he would have to withdraw from his next match should he win this match.
Kyrgios in this case may be the one benefiting from Rafa’s withdrawal, but having not played a competitive match for four days, is he well prepared for the final on Sunday? We have to see how things turn out this coming Sunday, it may or may not be an advantage for him.
Lucky, I agree with most of what you wrote. But I disagree with your take that there should be no lucky losers once the tournament has started, because the loser of a match did not deserve to reach the next round. However, with this logic you could argue that the loser of the final qualifying match does not deserve to play in the main tournament, and that there should be no lucky losers at all! It would be easy to simply allow the first round opponent a walk-over when the opponent has to withdraw. But it’s called “lucky loser” for a reason. The loser is lucky because the player gets a second chance to prove that he or she may be worthy after all. I think it deserves to be dicussed.
As far as Rafa is concerned, he cannot be critized for anything. And as I said already, if this was a normal Wimby with ranking points we would not have this absurd discussion.
Nah, the lucky loser thing is at the start of the tournament, where nobody else in the main draw has started any match yet! It’s different from giving a loser in a QF a second chance, when in the other QF, the player has to beat his opponent to reach the next round.
I agree with Lucky. It would be quite unfair to the player who actually won his quarterfinal match. It is what it is. It’s happened before and it will again. It’s just that when it’s Rafa the haters come out.
Andy Roddick has been posting about this lucky loser idea and being completely opposed. He says it’s the purity of the sport that you get one shot and that’s it If you lose you lose. I agree. Once you start messing around with this simple notion the coherence of the sport is gone.
Novak starting badly is no surprise.
He has been showing a lot of nerves and fallibility.
But hey Norrie also plays a rubbish game.
Novak is playing far worse in the first set than he did against Sinner!
Don’t know why the commentators are so surprised. Novak was really off mentally in the first 2 sets against Sinner.
This is worse for him because it’s a home crowd behind their player.
Norrie doesn’t even have any real tools in his kit box.
Sinner certainly played a lot better in the first 2 sets than Norrie is. It’s more that Novak is way way off his game.
Sinner has bigger weapons than Norrie.
I hope Norrie doesn’t buckle like Sinner did.
It will be harder for Novak to get back in form because of the crowd bothering him.