Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fritz, Kyrgios vs. Garin

When Wimbledon quarterfinal action wraps up on Wednesday there will be one all-seeded showdown and one all-unseeded matchup. Rafael Nadal is going up against a red-hot opponent in Taylor Fritz, while Nick Kyrgios faces Cristian Garin.

(11) Taylor Fritz vs. (2) Rafael Nadal


It will be a rematch of the Indian Wells final when Nadal and Fritz square off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday afternoon. Fritz took down Nadal 6-3, 7-6(5) for his first-ever Masters 1000 title, tying up the head-to-head series 1-1 following a 6-3, 6-2 loss in the 2020 Acapulco championship match. Now they collide in a slam, where Nadal is undefeated this season. The 36-year-old Spaniard triumphed in both Melbourne and Paris, and so far at the All-England Club he has defeated Francisco Cerundolo, Ricardas Berankis, Lorenzo Sonego, and Botic van de Zandschulp. Nadal dropped a set to both Cerundolo and Berankis before raising his level in rounds three and four.

Fritz has been dominant all fortnight. The world No. 14 and recent Eastbourne champion has not lost a single set; everyone else in the field has lost at least two. He booked his place in the last eight by coasting past Lorenzo Musetti, Alastair Gray, Alex Molcan, and Jason Kubler. Sure the competition level has been underwhelming, but 12-0 in total sets is impressive no matter the circumstances. Fritz is one of the few members of the younger generation who actually have belief when they face Nadal and Novak Djokovic. The Indian Wells result can’t really be taken into account since both guys–especially Nadal–were less than 100 percent, but nonetheless it can’t hurt Fritz’s confidence level. This is another winnable match for the American.

Pick: Fritz in 5

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WWW: Nadal vs. Fritz?


Cristian Garin vs. Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios vs. Garin is a rare all-unseeded affair in the quarterfinals of a major. Of course, based on talent alone–especially on the grass courts of Wimbledon–Kyrgios was always a title contender regardless of what his No. 40 ranking suggests. The 27-year-old reached the quarterfinals back in 2014 and now he is through to the semis following victories over Paul Jubb, Filip Krajinovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Brandon Nakashima.

Garin was supposed to face 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini in round one, but the Italian was forced out by a positive Covid-19 test and it’s safe to say that the 43rd-ranked Chilean has made the most of his opportunity. He has advanced by taking out Elias Ymer, Hugo Grenier, Jenson Brooksby, and Alex de Minaur. Garin is coming off a five-set battle with de Minaur, but his first three matches were routine so he should have plenty left in the tank for the biggest match of his career. Kyrgios made only one of his first four matches straightforward, so another roller-coaster ride can be expected against an in-form opponent–but the Aussie’s serve will likely bail him out in the pressure-packed moments.

Pick: Kyrgios in 5

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WWW: Kyrgios vs. Garin?

50 Comments on Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fritz, Kyrgios vs. Garin

      • Agreed! He couldn’t have beaten NK without his serve.
        God speed Rafa! Go home and rest. He’s given his all and no one can ask more of him…

        • It was always a very long shot that Rafa would win another Wimby title or even the career slam. And we should look at the glass half full: Rafa is still unbeaten at the slams this year 😉 It was great that Rafa managed to win against all odds!

          • Yes I agree with the upbeat view. There’s simply no point being miserable about what might have been.
            He has a great chance at USO.
            Moya said recently he was the favourite there and I agree..

          • Amy, I fully agree! Against all odds Rafa did so well at all slams this year. But he had also a certain amount of luck. At the FO he himself made the final after Zverev had to retire. Rafa may have won that match anyway, but it could have turned into a gruelling battle. This time Kyrgios is the lucky one. That happens and has to be accepted. And these abdominal tears are normally uncomplicated and heal after a certain amount of rest. Andy Murray had one in the Stuttgart final against Berrettini. But he healed in time for Wimby.

          • Oh I didn’t know that about Andy littlefoot! That’s good to know. Rafa says he sees himself as on course to play Canada and the USO. His winning rate there is very good.
            I simply refuse to get downbeat by all this. He is still unbeaten in slams with his second best slam to come…

          • Amy, an abdominal problem prevented Andy from playing Queens, which he had planned after Stuttgart.
            We should not forget that so many other players have often been very unlucky, too! It’s not just Rafa. Just look at Andy or Delpo whose whole career was stunted by injuries! And Berrettini and Cilic, who were in fine form before they had to withdraw. Or the Russian guys who were not allowed to play in the first place. It’s highly ironical that a native Russian might win the women’s title.
            But I disgress. I just wanted to say that Rafa had such a great career. He is not at all unlucky.

    • Its obscene isnt it.
      Actually interesting how well the Aussies are doing this year on grass with their tradition. Brilliant win in the mens doubles .

  1. Rest rafa, you did your best. Vamos no matter what.

    Congrats to djoko for winning Wimbledon. Dont even think he will drop a set and the slam race gets closer and we all know djoko will be allowed to play the US OPEN bc the vaccine mandate will not stand forever.

  2. Amy..things going as per your prediction…maybe as u said he does win 3 slams this year n wins uso..u always said he won’t win wimby

    Was it telepathy? Feeling?

    N again confirms that rafa cannot win a slam without Moya by his side. Carlos is there at New York . Rafa said it takes 4 weeks to heal but he will start baseline practice in 10 days n serve after 4 weeks.

    • Sanju, actually I thought he could win wimby. But I did say I thought he was going to win 3 and USO was more likely than wimby.
      Moya said after RG he would be fave at USO. I agree.
      Let’s look ahead to good things..!

    • Sanju, you don’t need telepathy in order to predict that Rafa would not Wimby 😉 Given the short amount of time to get used to a surface on which he had not played for three years and the fact that a healthy Novak was going to defend his title, it was a long shot anyway. Rafa can play well on grass, but this year the preparation time was too short! But he acquitted himself well nevertheless!

  3. He will be seeded in top 4 at uso .but then Novak n Carlos in 5-8 ..Novak ofcourse if usa lifts vaccine mandates which they very well may

    • USA is unlikely to lift the vaccine mandate for entering the country, at least not by the US Open. You can’t imagine how minor a sport tennis is in the USA, so he mandate certainly won’t be on NoVax’ account.

      Sorry to hear that Rafa can’t play his semi but I expect it’s a sensible decision. That tear has been getting worse with every match. I see no way he could beat both Novax and NK. That’s a big ask even if he were in full health!

      • Ramara, I fully agree! Of course it’s not nice, and a healthy Rafa is always a threat everywhere, and in 2019 he has beaten Kyrgios at Wimby. He has also beaten him in IW this year. Kyrgios would not have been a favorite in that match up. However Rafa cannot beat these dangerous opponents without a good serve! He extricated himself against Fritz, but this would not work against Kyrgios and Novak. I am glad that he choose to withdraw instead of playing and getting beaten up. And it might have aggravated the tear.
        Abdominal tears don’t develop into a chronic problem as far as I know, and they heal with rest. Therefore they should not be a problem for the upcoming hardcourt season.

  4. Oh Gosh! What a BUMMER!!!!!!! So close and yet so far!!!! If it is one slam that I really want Rafa to win was Wimby!! Damn it!!!

  5. Disappointing but not entirely unexpected, at least now he can get some r and r. and get ready for the USO HC swing….

    Hi hope your all well as its been ages since I last posted….

  6. A lot of people don’t want him to win, or, at the very least, they want people to know what he’s really like if he does win, hence the very timely annoucement of his pending court case.

    Djokovic will feel like the good guy if they both make the final, which will work to his advantage.

    • Popcorn final and golden topping is the handshake.

      It’s funny that the crowd has been pro Kyrgios in his matches as will be the case in the final yet they booed his name when mentioned in rafas post match on court interview.

      I’m pulling for kyrgios because inner demons not to mention 22-20-20

  7. Nick can win this tourney but obviously he’ll muck the hell out of it!! He’s going into a final with a +ve H2H over his opponent. He’s playing well enough and he has the weapons but, does he have the heart or even the testicular fortitude?!

  8. I saw something last night on the replay of the match on the tennis channel. It was very unnerving. I may not have been watching it live at the time. I was changing the channel and checking back to see if Rafa was giant to retire. It was in the fourth set, score 1-1.

    Rafa went over to get his towel and then he leaned his head against the back fence. That was hard to watch. He was really struggling with the pain. It was late at night abd I had trouble going to sleep after seeing that. Although I hoped he could find a way to play in the semis, after seeing that moment it made me think that maybe it was just too much. Those moments are very haunting.

    It makes it a little easier to deal with him withdrawing today. It stinks but it was the right decision. That tear would have gotten worse and he may not have been okay to play at the US Open. I actually thought he had a very good chance to win Wimbledon. With the foot under control and his grass game starting to click, I liked his chances. I don’t think he was chasing windmills. I also think Rafa believed he could win.

    I am sorry that he lost the chance at the calendar slam. But I am okay knowing that he put it all on the line out there in yesterday’s match.

    • Yes, I agree with that NNY. I always felt it was ambitious to think that Rafa could win the calendar slam that’s y I kinda wanted him to forego FO and make a push for the title at Wimby, but it’s a good thing he didst do that given what’s happened. I did think too that he could beat Novak in the final, he was playing well enough, but it was just not meant TO BE. VAMOS CHAMP, SEE U AT THE US OPEN!!!

  9. Rafa has made the right decision and I respect it. CYGS is hard to achieve; Djoko who was physically healthy last year couldn’t achieve it, so it’s too much to ask for, for Rafa who is injury prone.

    From what I’ve seen of Rafa’s matches, I’m happy with his game as he has improved yet again. I would say that he’s playing well this year at Wimbledon, close to his 2018/2019 Wimbledon level. I hope he will come back next year to try and win the title, with a healthier body and an even better game!

    Vamos Rafa, keep trying!

  10. I woke up sad today having to miss the nervousness of a slam sf coupled with excitement of prospect of making a final .

    I hope my prediction of rafa getting 22 as my other all time fav Steffi does not come to pass. Rafa Def deserves one more non clay slam n I hope it’s uso this year. God please make it happen. I know 22 in itself with history of injuries is excellent too but we need more. If many ppl said rafa has great stars this year as 2010 , I am hoping he closes the year with 3 like in 2010.

    Pls God make it happen. If he wins uso, he will be slam leader at 2 slams.

    • Sanju,

      I am sad, too. I thought Rafa had a really good chance to win here. The foot procedure worked and his game on grass was getting better and better. His serve was also very good. I do not buy into this invincibility idea about Novak. My opinion is that the layoff due to not being vaccinated hurt him a lot. All these months not being able to play. Then he came back for the clay season and looked like crap. He managed to win Rome and suddenly he was considered the favorite for RG. I never bought it. His easy draw did not prepare him for Rafa. So he lost. He had another cupcake draw and Sinner went up two sets on him but could not finish it.

      I would have loved to see Rafa win here and go for the calendar slam. I am sure Rafa is also very disappointed. But he has his eye on the US Open now. I hope he finishes the last slam with a resounding win.

      We have to be grateful for what he has done this year. I don’t think anyone expected him to win the AO. Then another record setting RG. It’s been great.
      😍

    • Sorry you are feeling sad today sanju!
      Despite my upbeat attitude yesterday I am very disappointed. I really did believe he could win wimby. And do the calendar slam.
      But we have to try and look on the bright side, and Rafa is 19-0 in slam matches this year with his second best slam to come. I really do think Rafa is going to win more than 22 slams.
      I was thinking about USO last night and, given he has missed many through injury, I worked out he has won 4 of the last 7 he has played plus the final in 2011. That’s an incredibly impressive stat and is far better than Novak’s. He may have only won 1 less but it’s from way more attempts. And everyone says Novak is the greatest hard court player of all time!

      • Novak has 3 out of 9 at uso. It’s his worst as far as conversion goes. It’s to him what ao is to Rafa (2/6)

        I am really hoping things click at uso n since Moya will be on-site with him ,it just makes me feel better

        • I agree about the positive impact of Moya being there. He is Rafa’s main coach afterall! And he was a #1 with real understanding of the game.
          Fingers crossed for USO!!

          • BTW it is a bit strange everyone bangs on about how Novak is the greatest on hard courts and only looks at the AO!! His record at the USO isn’t actually consistent with that assessment.
            Also, it’s easier for Novak to rack up slams given there are 2 hard court slams and one on clay. Imagine how many Rafa would have if the situation were reversed!

  11. Extremely disappointing. I thought he could beat Novak here as the gap between him and Novak on grass seemed minimal. His Forehand back to best. Serve was workign well prior to the abdomen issue. Oh well. What can you do.

    • Yeah I thought he could beat Novak as well. I don’t actually buy into this narrative of Novak being unbeatable. Starting with wimby last year he has looked fallible. I won’t be surprised if he loses.

  12. Anyhow, the pool of candidates who can win on grass is so minimal that Rafa had a bright chance. The pool of players for USO is a lot bigger. But, I trust Rafa. One thing is the crowd support will be massive for him (those in NYC, let’s plan to meet up at the Open??).

    • Hey Atul, I am planning on coming to the US Open actually. I am deserving of a trip and some R&R. I would be nice to meet up and cheer for our man, lol!! I haven’t been to the US Open since my first tine in 2008. I think it’s WELL WELL overdue.

      Anyway folks, don’t be sad about Rafa’s withdrawal. I’ve come to learn that every cloud has a silver lining! We’ll find out soon enough!

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