Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will bid for spots in the Wimbledon second week when they take the court again on Saturday. Nadal faces another potentially tough test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Federer is going up against Lucas Pouille.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Tsonga will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they clash in the Wimbledon third round on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in Nadal’s favor, a respectable record for Tsonga relative to the Spaniard’s dominance of most opponents. Their only previous grass-court contest came eight years ago at Queen’s Club, where the Frenchman prevailed 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1. Of course, Nadal was making a quick turnaround following his sixth French Open title and Tsonga was at his peak in those days. The 34-year-old is a shadow of his former self right now, plagued by injuries and struggling at 72nd in the rankings. He has benefited from a favorable draw at the All-England Club, coasting past Bernard Tomic and Ricardas Berankis in straight sets.

Tomic was fined all of his first-round prize money for failing to meet a professional standard in terms of effort (ie, “tanking”) against Tsonga. Saturday’s opponent, of course, is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Even more motivated than usual against unfriendly rival Nick Kyrgios, Nadal survived a high-quality 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) battle with Kyrgios on Thursday evening. The world No. 2 preceded that result with a 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Yuichi Sugita. Nadal is riding a 14-match winning streak and his performance in round two will give him the utmost confidence for the remainder of this fortnight.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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(27) Lucas Pouille vs. (2) Roger Federer

Whereas Nadal was fired up to an unprecedented extent–even by his standards–against Kyrgios, Federer has not come close to putting things into top gear. With a draw even friendlier than Tsonga’s, the third-ranked Swiss eased past Lloyd Harris and British wild card Jay Clarke in the first two rounds (although he actually dropped the opening set to Clarke). Eyeing a ninth Wimbledon title, Federer recently triumphed for the 10th time in Halle to set himself up nicely for success in SW19.

Up next for the 37-year-old Saturday is a second career matchup with Pouille. They previously faced each other five years ago on the indoor hard courts of Paris, where Federer cruised 6-4, 6-4. Pouille is obviously a much different player now, but he is slumping in 2019 following several mostly impressive seasons. Down to 28th in the rankings, Pouille is a mediocre 12-12 in 2019 and 7-11 in his last 18 matches. He did not have to do much in rounds one and two, taking advantage of compatriots Richard Gasquet and Gregoire Barrere in straight sets. Nothing about those results nor anything Pouille has accomplished since the Australian Open (semifinals) suggests he can seriously challenge Federer.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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41 Comments on Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

  1. Federer in three, as Pouille will tense up once he sees his idol across the net.

    Pouille also played poorly against Djoko at the AO this year in the SF, losing in straight sets, saying that Djoko was the most difficult opponent to play against, no wonder he’s the no.1 player. However, the two youngsters – Shapo and Medvedev – did better by getting a set each from Djoko, and Medvedev got Djoko into all sorts of troubles. It’s more to do with Pouille’s own level I must say, for he’s losing early in the subsequent events he played after the AO.

    Pouille only plays well against Rafa, because he caught Rafa at his worst moment at the USO some years back, managed to beat Rafa in four or five sets; from then Rafa had a hard time beating Pouille (he beat Pouille in three sets at Beijing R1 in 2017, the year Rafa won the event).

    So, Pouille won’t be able to cause too much trouble for Fed imo, and Fed by now should be playing better tennis to reach the second week of the tournament.

  2. I haven’t seen Tsonga play since the Halle match against Fed, so I can’t really comment on his form apart from what others have said. However, if Nadal plays at the level he did against Kyrgios, it’s hard for me to imagine him losing. I suspect it would take JW can summoning his 2008 AO form to beat him.

  3. Rafa is really impressive, serving well, moving well! Not allowing Tsonga to play his game!

    Rafa has really opened up his shoulders here! Hope he keeps it up and improves as tourney progresses!

      • I was not worried about Tsonga. While he may be decent form now, he is long past his best days. Rafa will take a huge boost of confidence from the match against Kyrgios. He knows Nik gave him his best. That makes it even better.

        I expected Rafa to cruise through this one.

  4. One point at a time Rafa, one game at a time, one set at a time, one match at a time, one tourney at a time!

    Vamos Rafa!!

  5. We could say that Nick was the only impediment for Rafa to reach the SF. The draw at the end of the day was okay and opened up even better. Next round Sousa or Evans, the Querrey probably. Doesn’t sound horrible at all. Up until now he is looking better than Fed and Djoko. I expect Roger to find his game before he meets Rafa.

    • Querrey is the worry imo, after this match. Querrey plays well on grass, was a semi- finalist here some time back; he had also won a title at Queens. He has a big serve and is good at the net.

  6. Lost only10 points on his serve, serving 11aces! Rafa played fantastic match! Beautiful from Rafa!! What a treat for my eyes to see Rafa playing this good on grass!

    Vamos Champ! So proud of you!!!

  7. I was not nervous in the least in this match as Rafa came out of the blocks on fire!!! He did everything well, you could see he was composed. Thats when he plays his best tennis!!! Glad to see Rafa in the second week here again!!

    VAMOS!!

    • I am still nervous with Rafa even if I knew he would be playing free and run through this match and played out exactly what I hoped for. My congratulations to all fellow Nadal fans Amy, NNY, Natashao, Lucky, Ramara everyone. Its nice to celebrate a good victory with you guys. BTW whats wrong with Mr Jim Courier on here. Was he hoping and praying Nadal messes it up 🙂

      I am thinking if its meant to be, Nadal might actually lay his hands on his 19th next week.

      Have a good weekend guys!

    • Me too! Vamos Rafa!

      I found it hard to believe Tsonga would give Rafa any trouble. I like Tsonga a lot, really sorry for all his knee problems, but he’s only had a couple of great matches in his career, most notably the Wimbly where he beat Fed after going down 2 sets to him He was serving LIGHTS OUT in those 3 sets though and that was quite a few years back. Then there was the AO 2007 semi where he gave Rafa a real beatdown.

  8. I’m impressed with Pouille so far in this match, he really comes to play, not folding in front of his idol. The match is quite competitive so far.

    I think Pouille coming to the net is not the right strategy against Fed, but Pouille isn’t one who could hit hard to force Fed to stay away from the net. He’s not going to trouble Fed at the net; Fed should win this in straight sets.

  9. 1) Nadal is a beast. Playing better tennis than I realized. 2) TENNYS SANDGREN LETS GO 😂 3) just turned on Roger’s match. It’s a close one, already a bit nervous haha

  10. Watching Pouille here makes me appreciate Rafa and Djoko even more. I mean, Pouille’s reflexes and anticipation is no where near those two guys.

    Fed will always rush the net to pressurise his opponents but somehow both Rafa and Djoko would still find a way to pass him. Pouille half the time couldn’t get past Fed with his shots and is made to run all over the place to defend even in his own service game!

    Fed’s BH is not even clicking that well but Pouille still couldn’t take advantage.

    • lucky, his BH may not be clicking that well, but it’s his BH that saved his game at 5:5, and maybe Pouille would be 1:0 now.

  11. I think a player like Hurkacz would do better than Pouille against Fed, because Hurkacz at least could serve big and hit hard to force Fed to stay at the baseline.

    Pouille really has no big weapons to trouble Fed; he’s basically playing a similar game as Fed though a few levels lower.

  12. It’s just like Kei or Coric playing against Djoko, junior version vs adult version, not going to win most of the time.

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