Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will bid for spots in the Wimbledon second week when they take the court again on Saturday. Nadal faces another potentially tough test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Federer is going up against Lucas Pouille.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Tsonga will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they clash in the Wimbledon third round on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in Nadal’s favor, a respectable record for Tsonga relative to the Spaniard’s dominance of most opponents. Their only previous grass-court contest came eight years ago at Queen’s Club, where the Frenchman prevailed 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1. Of course, Nadal was making a quick turnaround following his sixth French Open title and Tsonga was at his peak in those days. The 34-year-old is a shadow of his former self right now, plagued by injuries and struggling at 72nd in the rankings. He has benefited from a favorable draw at the All-England Club, coasting past Bernard Tomic and Ricardas Berankis in straight sets.

Tomic was fined all of his first-round prize money for failing to meet a professional standard in terms of effort (ie, “tanking”) against Tsonga. Saturday’s opponent, of course, is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Even more motivated than usual against unfriendly rival Nick Kyrgios, Nadal survived a high-quality 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) battle with Kyrgios on Thursday evening. The world No. 2 preceded that result with a 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Yuichi Sugita. Nadal is riding a 14-match winning streak and his performance in round two will give him the utmost confidence for the remainder of this fortnight.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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(27) Lucas Pouille vs. (2) Roger Federer

Whereas Nadal was fired up to an unprecedented extent–even by his standards–against Kyrgios, Federer has not come close to putting things into top gear. With a draw even friendlier than Tsonga’s, the third-ranked Swiss eased past Lloyd Harris and British wild card Jay Clarke in the first two rounds (although he actually dropped the opening set to Clarke). Eyeing a ninth Wimbledon title, Federer recently triumphed for the 10th time in Halle to set himself up nicely for success in SW19.

Up next for the 37-year-old Saturday is a second career matchup with Pouille. They previously faced each other five years ago on the indoor hard courts of Paris, where Federer cruised 6-4, 6-4. Pouille is obviously a much different player now, but he is slumping in 2019 following several mostly impressive seasons. Down to 28th in the rankings, Pouille is a mediocre 12-12 in 2019 and 7-11 in his last 18 matches. He did not have to do much in rounds one and two, taking advantage of compatriots Richard Gasquet and Gregoire Barrere in straight sets. Nothing about those results nor anything Pouille has accomplished since the Australian Open (semifinals) suggests he can seriously challenge Federer.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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28 Comments on Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

  1. I read some twitter comments from the Fed fans, they’re complaining about the slow surface, as if Wimbledon deliberately slows it down. They’re saying all these favor Rafa, like they’re helping him in the slam race count!..

    Come on, I LOL, Wimbledon favoring Rafa? Since when? They (the Fed fans) are getting worried that Rafa may soon surpass Fed in the slam count, but, I doubt Fed is losing his sleep over this. Its always the fans who are complaining!

    Now that Rafa gets to play on CC court for his R4 match, the Djoko fans on twitter are complaining about the unfair treatment that Djoko gets from the Wimbledon organiser. They said Wimbledon always favor Fed so Fed always get CC for almost all his matches, but they think Rafa as no. 3 seed should be given Court 1 instead.

    What they fail to realise is that come the QF, Djoko will most likely be playing at CC and Rafa at C1. Unless they think Djoko is not going to make it to the QF, why so much complaints? So, they want Djoko to be at CC all the time after R3, and poor Rafa at C1 all the time after R3 unless he reaches the SF? Is that fair to Rafa? What if Rafa plays his R4 match at C1, and then his QF at CC, will not the Djoko fans complain about that?

    Last year, we the Rafa fans complained about the roof. Fans are fans, they like to complain when they think their fave is not treated fairly.

    • Well, the courts seem to have been subject to several variables which will always be slightly different each season. Grass is the only living surface. Apparently there hasn’t been any deliberate tinkering. Also, the idea that the conditions were changed in order to please specifically Rafa is certainly absurd. Making the balls heavier is obviously not a good way to help him, lol!

    • The ladies’ QF is on Tuesday and the Men’s QF is on Wednesday so all the QF matches will be on CC because the other matches on Tuesday and Wednesday will be doubles QFs. Tomorrow is the last time any singles match will take place on Court 1.

      • How can four QFs be played on CC?? Two will be played at C1. Matches at CC and C1 start from 1pm local time.

        • Yes, the QF has 4 matches so two of them will be on Ct 1. Now that both courts are covered it doesn’t make too much difference. At least, Ct 1 has real tennis fans no Royal Box or the great and the good.

  2. Well, the courts seem to have been subject to several variables which will always be slightly different each season. Grass is the only living surface. Apparently there hasn’t been any deliberate tinkering. Also, the idea that the conditions were changed in order to please specifically Rafa is certainly absurd. Making the balls heavier is obviously not a good way to help him, lol!

  3. Sorry for the double post. The site behaves a bit strange atm.
    I didn’t get the feeling that Fed himself was overly worried about the current court conditions.

    Rafa needs to deal with the roof if he wants to win another Wimby trophy. The roof is there and sometimes it will be closed. That’s it. There will be rainy days next week.

    • I don’t think Rafa is bothered about the roof at all. He says it’s so high that he hardly notices it’s there. The ground is the same grass it’s not as it suddenly changes to concrete. It’s just the principle of it that an opponent can ask for an outdoor tournament to be played under the roof in perfect weather because he feels it would help him. The reason they went with Djokovic was for the match to finish under the same conditions that it started. That makes no sense because when they close the roof for bad weather, they are not maintaining the same conditions.

      Rafa is attacked from both Fed and Djoker fans because they are all afraid that he will leave their player behind.

  4. ESPN had an interview with Rafa yesterday. They asked him about the report that the court was playing slower. He laughed and said in all the years he has been coming theee the surface is always the same. But he did say that the balls are heavier at Wimbledon.

    Rafa has never gotten any favoritism or special treatment at Wimbledon. With their peculiar way of seeding, they are different from every other slam. Rafa should have been the #2 seed. It should be based in the rankings. Period. He got the worst draw, but it has opened up. He has a very good opportunity. I think he can reasonably make the semis and then it could be a rematch with Fed .

    • NNY, many players have voiced their opinions, and each player has said something different about the court speed. But to my knowledge a majority has said indeed that at least initially the conditions were very slow – slower than in previous years. And some objective data which have been gathered, seem to confirm this notion. Fed thinks that the courts will settle and condense in the second week and become faster. He doesn’t think there has been any deliberate tinkering with the surface. Grass is the only living surface after all and conditions can always vary from season to season. But Fed also thinks the balls may be slightly heavier. If that’s the case, neither Roger nor Rafa benefit from this.
      Since Rafa has been playing great so far, I don’t feel that Rafafans need to worry, though. Apparently he can handle all sorts of changing conditions. And the comparably tough draw might actually turn out to be an asset if he comes through, because performing well against dangerous opponents should boost his confidence immensely. The Djoker really has a laughable draw, though. Unless Raonic raises himself to unlikely heroics, Novak’s only stern test might come in a final against Roger or Rafa.
      The idea that something has been deliberately changed in order to help Rafa specifically is slightly absurd IMO.

      • littlefoot,

        I know that Rafa did say in the ESPN interview that it can depend on how a player’s game is and that affects their perception of court conditions.

        I agree about Novak’s draw being laughable. He can sleepwalk to the final! But I think Rafa responds to a challenging draw. His draw did open up and he hit a break playing Tsonga in the third round. He could have faced Cilic in the fourth round. Even though he is not in his best form now, he can still be tough on grass. I try not to look ahead but I do admit to being a bit nervous about Querrey in the quarterfinal. Querrey seems to play the role of giant killer at Wimbledon. From out of nowhere he starts playing well. Big servers always make me nervous for Rafa on the grass. But if Rafa continues to play the way he has, I like his chances.

        • Well, after the Kyrgios match, had it be Shapo instead of Tsonga in R3, I do feel Rafa would still be able to beat Shapo. Shapo’s go for broke style would end up with more errors than winners. The fact that Tsonga playing the way he played could still beat Shapo, said something about Shapo’s level at this Wimbledon. Likewise for Cilic, when Sousa could beat him on grass.

          I think in Rafa’s quarter, it’s still Kyrgios being the most dangerous, followed by Querrey. Querrey seemed to move quite swiftly through the draw after losing a set to Thiem in R1.

          I do expect Sousa to give Rafa some test though, for he’s something like Schwartzman, who keeps fighting and never gives up. Rafa has to serve well and shortens the point, if not he may be dragged into a baseline war with Sousa.

          • I agree about Sousa. I watched the match with Evans and Sousa is playing well..I think he can give Rafa a good test. But Rafa is looking good right now.

            I also agree about Kyrgios being the most dangerous followed by Querrey. It is true that Shapo would not have had much luck against Rafa. I did not worry about Tsonga at all. I think his best days are behind him. He never had the mental strength that Rafa has. I guess one can say if Cilic lost to Sousa, then he was not in the kind of form he has been in the past.

            Rafa got through the biggest hurdle with Kyrgios. He would normally have met him a few rounds later but his ranking has gone down. That was about as tough as it could get in the second round.

          • Actually Tsonga did not even beat Shapovalov. Berankis beat Shapo round one. In straight sets too

      • Moya absolutely deserves a vacation with his family, and Rafa is obviously experienced and intelligent enough to handle things very well with Roig’s assistence. Exhibit A is Rafa’s current level of play and how well he handled the very tricky Kyrgios challenge. But I always feel better when Moya is around. He had such a positive influence on Rafa’s confidence level and self esteem and he took certain aspects of his game in a very good direction. And since Moya has been fully onboard he has become the most successful tennis coach of the last three years with 6 slam finals, winning 4 of them and one year-end No 1 finish. Only Team Novak is hot on his heels, lol!

  5. Rafa is serving well and hitting his FH very well; his one two punch tennis is/was impressive that had Kyrgios praising him for that. I do think that Rafa should continue playing this way on grass and on the HCs; should he manage to play this way consistently, I don’t think we need to worry about big servers in his draw.

    Of course what’s important is for Rafa to incorporate this into his normal tennis game until it becomes a natural part of it. Once that happens, he will be able to rely on it as if it comes naturally to him, just like the big serves becoming a natural part of a big server’s game.

    PS. It’s Berankis who beat Shapo in straight sets in R1, not Tsonga. Berankis then lost to Tsonga in straight sets R2.

      • It’s ok Benny. BTW, did you manage to watch the Shapo vs Berankis match? I couldn’t watch that as not telecast here at my country, was Shapo really that bad, even on grass?

        Shapo has been quite disappointing lately after his run to the SF at Miami, losing to Fed. I wonder what happened to him; he’s behind both Tsitsipas and FAA now in the rankings.

        • I didn’t see much. I saw the last few games, lots of sloppy mistakes from Shapo. He’s definitely in a bit of a slump now. North American hard court season is a time he could regain his form though. He has played some of his best tennis at that point in the season.

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